Equal Weight S&P 500 has outperformed Cap Weight by 4.2% through 2/7. That's the highest spread going back to 1992. 34 years. Incredible.

If I had one visual to explain what is happening in markets, it is this one. Mag7 breaking down relative to S&P 500. Small Caps breaking out relative to S&P 500. Could it be this simple?

Market internals currently signal "risk-on" - 79% of Discretionary Sector Above 200D - Only 35% Of Staples Sector Above 200D The "spread" between the two is plotted below. 44% more Discretionary stocks above 200D. "Risk-on" stocks rising while "risk-off" falling = bullish.

Total Returns Over Past Year: S&P Pure Value: +22% S&P Pure Growth: +16% Over 600 bps of outperformance in value stocks. Narrow market? This suggests otherwise. 👇

I have never seen a day in the market like this.

Wall Street's strategists are too cautious on the year ahead's stock market returns 70% of the time - @mattcerminaro.bsky.social chartkidmatt.com/p/25-years-o...

"The black dots show where each sector’s forward P/E stood at the S&P 500’s 10/29 short-term peak. The grey dots show where they stood at the 11/20 short-term trough. Valuation compression in 8 of 10 sectors shown, but most notably in Tech." @mattcerminaro.bsky.social

Google's forward PE looks like a meme stock. Nearly doubled off the low. 👇

Five years ago in November of 2020, Ed @yardeniresearch.bsky.social coined the phrase “Roaring 2020’s" as his forecast for the decade. Good call. Ed stopped by tonight to lay out his case for S&P 500 10,000 by year-end. Real people on The Street listen to Ed. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCki...

Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇

Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇

for daily market insights from working, registered professionals, follow the whole Ritholtz Starter Pack here. We specialize in sane, reasonable investment commentary. May we meet you? bsky.app/start/did:pl...

We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine. Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social

🆓 Sunday links: how gambling became frictionless, falling homicide rates, and the best books of 2025. abnormalreturns.com/2025/11/23/s... image: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...

At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...

The Best Books I Read in 2024 awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...

We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market. Look at this metric: - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5% - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9% 👇

Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...

A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...

Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets. Just don’t call him a Bond King. Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄 podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...

🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks. 👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run. Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends. 👇

It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social

This one is interesting. - Blue bars are sector returns YTD - Red dots are avg return of stock within sector - Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector. The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply. 👇

The 4 types of investment mistakes: 1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds) 2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc) 3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market) 4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all) awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...

Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990 But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily. Big gains happen more often than you think.

The NASDAQ is -0.50% today. But the internals paint a rosier picture. - 55% of stocks are advancing in the index. Not as "risk off" within. 👇

Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing. via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social

NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧 👇 youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...

Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today! Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...

Everybody tells us the "market is narrow" That's just not true. I brought the data. In 2H 2024: - The S&P 500 is +11.8% - But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7% So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%. Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this. 👇

The reason we are less susceptible to recession when rates rise in the modern era is because we’re a services economy. Which means inventory back-ups don’t result in mass layoffs anymore. Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years. @mattcerminaro.bsky.social:

One of my favorite investing quotes comes form Art Cashin. RIP 🙏 cnbc.com/2009/10/22/a... 👇

On traveling while you're young, and other musings: www.youngmoney.co/p/advice-22y...

Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation. 8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year. 👇

The stock market is now the driving force behind inflation. Hilarious given that the stock market has been rallying because inflation has come down. You can’t make this up 😂

Consumer confidence is surging at a peculiar time Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...

Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation. 8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year. 👇

The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth. - New high in S&P 500 price - New high in S&P 500 breadth No divergence there. ✅ for bulls. 👇

Michael Saylor when MSTR's market cap hits $47 trillion.

Q3 Earnings Season is now in the books. It was epic and justified the rally that began in September. Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social: Profits for S&P 500 companies grew 9% YoY (476bps above estimates), 75% of companies beat, sales up 5.7%, 8 of 11 sectors posted higher profits over 2023.

and you thought the U.S. stock market was concentrated

These are sector total returns YTD. 4 Sectors +30% YTD. Financials leading the pack. The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead. 👇

I did this one for @bencarlson007.bsky.social a few weeks back showing the difference between S&P 500 price (left) vs S&P 500 forward P/E (right). ➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs ➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs. Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020. 👇

Prelim roundup of Wall Street's S&P 500 2025 year-end targets: 6,000: Jefferies 6,400: UBS 6,500: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs 6,586: CFRA 6,600: RBC, Barclays 6,700: BMO 6,500-6,700: Wells Fargo Inv Institute 7,000: Yardeni, CapEcon, Deutsche Bank

Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund just announced a take-private of the third largest RIA in America. This should be an interesting convo for the advisors there. Oh, $8.6 billion (ALL CASH) is a lotta money. Congrats to the Canadian PE firm owner, nice trade. www.investmentnews.com/rias/ci-fina...

Scenes From a Regional Branch at $97,000 www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/scenes-fro...

“Of the 11 items on the Farm Bureau’s menu, seven cost less than last year ..” @barrons.bsky.social #deflation 🦃 www.barrons.com/articles/tha...

I sold a chunk of my Bitcoin holdings at around $99k I’ll sell some more if it goes higher I have my reasons: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/why-...

My first chart on Bluesky (and a sneaky peaky of what you'll get in tomorrow's OptimistiCallie 👀) Break out the buy vs. rent calculation according to how many hours it takes to afford each option, and you'll see it's the most expensive time to buy since the mid-2000s.