Treat your central bank like a third-world country, trade like a third-world country. bsky.app/profile/apne...

“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation” It’s about time the Fed took the gloves off www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Several years ago, a male colleague told me how unfair it is that women get a three-month vacation in maternity leave Boy do I think about that comment a lot as I vomit and waddle my way to the finish line.

I'm on maternity leave, and OptimistiCallie is on a publishing hiatus. But I wanted to leave you a gift in one of my most-read posts of all time during a season to focus on all that really matters 🎁 www.optimisticallie.com/p/all-that-r...

1/ I strongly endorse this op-ed by @marthagimbel.bsky.social of @budgetlab.bsky.social in @theargumentmag.bsky.social . open.substack.com/pub/theargum...

PERSONAL(ISH) NEWS: I hate slop research. And I'm building a research business with @thecompoundnews.bsky.social optimisticallie.com/p/slop-resea...

The Beige Book says employment is contracting, ADP says employment is contracting, the BLS says unemployment is going up, continuing jobless claims are rising, and WARN notices are up. It's very clear what's going on in the labor market, but stocks are up so people brush it off.

Thankful for all of you ❤️ 🦃

🎶 Do you have to? do you have to? do you have to let it linger? 🎶

🍂 ATTENTION ADVISORS 🍂 We're conducting research on how you talk about legacies, estates and inheritances in your practices. Give us 5 mins of your time, and you'll be entered into a raffle for a $100 Amazon gift card. Take the survey HERE: qualtricsxmdbbjzg4m7.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

You, the halfway tuned in cousin: wow Fed members really agree on nothing huh Me, a Fed nerd: yeah well that's what happens when the two sides of the dual mandate are in conflict OK? nobody agrees on which target to shoot at. btw pass the potatoes

The unemployment rate moved higher in September, mainly because people permanently lost their jobs. In fact, permanent job losers were the largest contribution to the 12-bp rise in unemployment. Higher unemployment can be good or bad. This is bad.

🔭 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🔭 The themes/stories I'm watching as we turn the calendar No targets. No predictions. No marketing gimmicks. Just the good stuff. www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2026-o...

🤑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤑 The economy normally drives the stock market But is the stock market driving the economy now?! I debunked the latest narrative about the power of the wealth effect vs. the job market www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-wealth...

😵‍💫 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 😵‍💫 Life is a little insane for me atm, so I wrote a little bit about how purpose, process and progress help keep me/maybe you anchored in your investing. Sanity over everything, folks. Even returns. www.optimisticallie.com/p/how-to-inv...

Strange: the 2-year yield is up 12 basis points on the day, its biggest move higher on a Fed day since March 2008. Yields haaaaaated Powell's strict tone on future cuts, even though balance sheet runoff is ending (+ the Fed is effectively shortening its duration)

MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com Millennials and Gen Zs share an awful bond — we both had to enter adulthood during a crisis. I wrote about market cycles, financial trauma & millennials' improbable comeback to give Gen Z some perspective on what's ahead: www.businessinsider.com/millennials-...

🤖 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🤖 The biggest tech hyperscalers could spend *$450 billion* on AI next year. Can they afford this hefty shopping spree? Yes. But they'll have to accept some undesirable tradeoffs, and some firms will feel more pain than others. www.optimisticallie.com/p/big-tech-s...

🪳 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪳 On if there could be more credit "cockroaches" to think about (TL;DR probably not), and why any credit/bad loan headlines make us feel like the world is about to end www.optimisticallie.com/p/credit-coc...

Two interesting stats: The VIX is heading for its biggest jump for a one-day selloff of this size since July 2020. Lotta hedging for a blanket risk with no real trigger date. The S&P 500 hasn't closed below its 200-day in 116 trading days, the longest streak since Feb. 2011.

🎂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🎂 Happy 3rd birthday to the bull market. Why you can argue all you want about why this bull is about to die...but you can't bet against it (bulls last longer than you think) optimisticallie.com/p/happy-birthday-bull-market-78a6

🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂 I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months) Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio: www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...

🍂 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍂 I get a lot of questions from clients about seasonality patterns in the stock market (especially right now, during the "worst/most volatile" months) Here's why you can't trust the calendar in your portfolio: www.optimisticallie.com/p/tis-the-se...

The S&P 500's average year vs. its five best and worst years. This is why we don't invest based solely on the calendar, folks More tomorrow, sign up for my insights here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe

“Stocks can’t fall when no bad news is coming out” is the new “my team can’t lose if it’s a bye week” 😉😉😉

All around bad data dump for the job market this morning: Consumer confidence: respondents' perception of jobs plentiful vs. hard to get is barreling towards zero (which has historically been the breakpoint for recessions)

🛑 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🛑 What you need to know about (what could be) the first government shutdown in nearly seven years www.optimisticallie.com/p/shutting-i...

What you need to know about government shutdowns, with the next one (maybe) 53 hours away, eek! TOMORROW on OptimistiCallie. Subscribe here for my research straight in your inbox: optimisticallie.com/subscribe

🏡 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏡 On the biggest myth surrounding rate cuts: are they the end to our long national nightmare of high mortgage rates? Probably not. The math behind mortgage rates + what it'll take to fix housing affordability www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-rate-c...

🫵 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🫵 Why you should stop sitting on your hands & invest RIGHT NOW Reason 1: You can't rely on wages alone to help you build wealth Climbing the corporate ladder hasn't worked since the 1970s www.optimisticallie.com/p/why-you-sh...

📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK 📈 Hopium, surprise market leaders, and why $1 trillion in margin debt is NBD www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...

🍟 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🍟 Small caps (/small fries) may be hobbled, but that doesn't mean they're dead What we need to see for a real small-cap revival: www.optimisticallie.com/p/revenge-of...

Small caps do well in high-growth, low-rate environments. How do I know? Because they've led in year 1 of every bull market since 1929 (with the exception of this one and 1938😵‍💫) Small caps aren't dead. Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie. (subscribe here: www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe)

Drives to the airport are some of the best drives you can take. Almost as good as drives back from the airport.

Something I find interesting: If the job market was your reason for staying optimistic in 2022, you're probably more pessimistic than the average talking head right now. Employment was the brightest spot in 2022. Now, it's the darkest.

📈 THE COMPOUND CHART PACK, vol 2 📈 Insane expectations, bonds behaving badly and reincarnation www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-compou...

🏃‍♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🏃‍♀️ Run your own race. Your benchmark is yourself, not the S&P 500 (ft this sweet Callan chart of S&P sector returns) www.optimisticallie.com/p/running-yo...

OK fine I’ll log on the socials for Chapel Bill #goheels 🐏

🪩 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪩 It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading Why do we love the new kids on the block so much? www.optimisticallie.com/p/new-kids-o...

Shares of IPO this year have surged an average of 35% in their first day of trading, making 2025 the most successful year for public debuts since at least 2000 I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW Subscribe here: optimisticallie.com/subscribe

MY LATEST FOR @businessinsider.com: We've heard a lot about the lack of hiring and a slow rise in unemployed people I'm watching an under-the-radar, equally worrying metric: the labor supply, which has sputtered like it normally does around recessions www.businessinsider.com/shrinking-la...

Jaw-dropping chart from Callie Cox - AI spending is now holding the entire economic growth story of the United States up while hiring and consumer spending grinds to a halt. Sustainable or not so much? www.optimisticallie.com/p/humans-rob...

I can't stand the rhetoric around rate cuts and stock prices. The Fed does NOT care about stock prices. Maybe a teeny tiny bit, but not as much as prices and employment. Since 1970, about 20% of the S&P 500’s record highs have occurred within a month of a rate cut.

👯‍♀️ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 👯‍♀️ Rate cut hopes in August Small caps breaking out A stock market that can't be fazed You could argue that today is a mirror image of 2024. Déjà vu. But a rate cut here would be totally different optimisticallie.com/p/deja-vu

Today vs. a year ago in the job market Rate cut déjà vu, tomorrow on OptimistiCallie (subscribe here to get my notes in your inbox: optimisticallie.com/subscribe)

Russell 2000 closed up 3% today, biggest surge on a jobs/CPI/Fed day since the CPI report in July 2024 Nothing gets the small fries going like rate cut hopium

📬 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 📬 What everybody was buzzing about at Camp Kotok (!!!) plus some personal news... 👀 www.optimisticallie.com/p/a-postcard...

✊ NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE ✊ The human economy is stumbling, and some Wall Street experts have pondered if AI can single-handedly pull the economy forward But the lesson from history is clear: ignore humans at your own peril optimisticallie.com/p/humans-rob...

Boy do I have a chart for you Big tech is investing in fewer employees and more robots 2025 is shaping up to look like last year — a stalled (slightly down) headcount with a surge in business spending Humans > robots. Tomorrow on OptimistiCallie. www.optimisticallie.com/subscribe

Ugh. Yes, the economy grew by an annualized 3% last quarter (even when stripping out inflation) But core economic demand (consumer + business + residential spend) was the slowest since Q4 2022. Not a great sign for what's ahead, especially as tariff pressures ramp up