There was a theory that the ETFs would do away with crypto volatility About that... Bitcoin down 42% Ethereum down 56%

Paypal was spun out of eBay in 2015 If you held the stock from the first trading day until now you would have underperformed t-bills

Some notable drawdowns: Oracle -49% Coinbase -55% Robinhood -41% Lululemon -65% Target -42% Nike -52% Adobe -53% All while the S&P 500 is w/in spitting distance from all-time highs

US Median home price in 1970: $17,000 If home prices tracked inflation that would be $142,000 today Actual median price today: $418,000 Why is housing so much more expensive? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hous...

Vince Vaughn in the Swingers diner scene at the end of the movie has to be the greatest drunk acting of all time (2nd place Will Ferrell in Old School)

The 2x leveraged silver fund has lost more in one day than the S&P 500 lost in the entire Great Financial Crisis

International stocks finally outperformed last year Foreign is outperforming again this year The dollar continues to fall Is diversification finally working again? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-d...

Gold now up nearly 23% per year in the 2020s Still kind of interesting this is the first decade both stocks and gold have strong returns together

For a bull market this has been a wild decade: -35% Covid crash in a month Negative oil prices Meme stocks/NFTs/SPACs 9% inflation Fed funds from 0% to 5% Worst bond bear mkt ever SVB bank Liberation Day Dollar falling Gold/silver going bananas And the US stock market still +15%/year

Why this cycle is different: In the 1980s/90s/00s household assets grew in-line w/liabilites Since the GFC household assets have grown faster than debt Household balance sheets are in a much better place today than basically any previous cycle awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/why-...

This is the perfect set-up for crypto: -Faith in the system is falling -Pro-crypto admin -Dollar is falling -Fed independence in question And yet...investors seem to still prefer physical gold to digital gold I wouldn't have guessed this would be the case Score one for the goldbugs

Animal Spirits: Hi-Yo Silver! Household vs. govt debt Diversification is working again The making of a permabear Is silver a meme stock? Why is gold beating bitcoin? Housing market inflation, dry January & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/anim...

Since 1930: There were 24x when earnings fell in the same year stocks finished the year higher There were 17 years in which the stock market was down but earnings actually rose Earnings tell the story in the long run but not always in the short run awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/earn...

This is a totally normal chart

If you were 20 yrs old in 1880 you could expect to spend <6% of your life in retirement (2.3 yrs) If you were 20 in 1990 you could spend up to one-third of your life in retirement Retirement is still a relatively new concept awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/shou...

The US makes up roughly: ~4% of the world’s population ~25% of the world’s GDP ~65% of the world’s stock market cap The winners write the history books but nothing lasts forever Some thoughts on why international diversification is still important: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...

The winners write the history books but nothing lasts forever Some thoughts on world powers and why I practice international diversification: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...

Animal Spirits: Small Caps Are Back Is geopolitical risk here to stay? Why are bond yields rising? Household balance sheets are in great shape The great wealth transfer of housing The bottom 50% owns more stocks Why are Netflix movies meh & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/anim...

Why were stocks up last year? I have lots of charts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/char...

Art of the Deal: Give us an inconsequential territory or we're gonna put a tax on our own citizens

Nasdaq 100 returns: From 2000 to the bottom in March 2009: -72% (-13% annualized) From the March 2009 bottom to today: +2,300% (+21% annualized) What a run

I think the most underrated part of this scene is the red YMCA jersey over the yellow t-shirt PSH deserved a best supporting actor nod for this role

How to fix the housing market: Bring down mortgage spreads? Ban institutional ownership? One time 3% rate for first-time homebuyers? OR We could actually incentivize homebuilders to build more houses awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/how-...

If I had a Oscar vote this is my best picture choice It felt so real The ending really got me

Why are credit card borrowing rates so high? Why are merchant fees for credit card transactions so high? How did we get to $1.2 trillion in credit card debt in America? Here's a short history of credit cards and how we got here: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/why-...

How often S&P 500 drawdowns occurred in a given year since 1928: -5%: 94% of all years -10%: 63% of all years -20%: 26% of all years -30%: 10% of all years -40%: 6% of all years -50%: 2% of all years awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/the-...

Updating My Favorite Performance Chart for 2025 awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/upda...

Animal Spirits: Is the Stock Market Invincible? Capping credit card rates Institutional home ownership Jerome Powell AI vs the labor market The bull market is broadening out Why are there fewer pizza places? Why TVs are so cheap & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/anim...

The average inflation rate over the past 100+ years is 3.3% We've now been below that level for 18 straight months

Historical annual returns 1928-2025: Stocks +10.0% Gold +5.6% Bonds +4.5% Housing +4.2% Cash +3.4% awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/hist...

A lot of people's actions in the 2020s will be judged harshly by future generations Jay Powell will not be one of those people

2 things that aren't going to happen: 1. credit card rates get capped at 10% 2. this ridiculous powell indictment going any further

If you think buying a home is a bad investment right now here are your options: 1. Rent 2. Smaller down payment 3. Skip the starter home 4. Extend your time horizon awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/is-a...

From 2020-2024 nearly 4% of California's population (in 2020) moved to a new state

70+ million baby boomers They control $85 trillion of wealth How they spend it down will be their biggest financial decision in the years ahead How do you balance longevity risk vs chronic underspending? How to beat the 4% rule: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/how-...

Since 1990 there have been 21 intrayear drawdowns of 10% or worse 14 out of those 21 years ended positive 11 of those years saw double-digit gains by year end Volatility is normal even in up years: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/it-h...

Banning institutional investors from buying homes is like banning stock buybacks It sounds/looks really good in the headlines but doesn't have the impact politicians think It's all optics

Animal Spirits: Tax the Billionaires Some 2026 predictions Valuations should be high Every market risk feels obvious More likely - bear market or +20% in 2026? Why does Disney stock stink? Where to find cheaper homes, Keanu Reeves & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/anim...

The ultimate flex as a super rich person is not complaining about taxes

If there is a car behind you it should be illegal to back into a parking spot Just back out

From the pre-Covid peak in Feb 2020: Interest rates are up a lot Valuations are a little higher (not much) The stock market has doubled

2025 returns: GOOG +65% NVDA +39% SPY +18% MSFT +16% META +13% TSLA +11% AAPL +9% AMZN +5% Just 2 out of the Mag 7 beat the market last year Some other surprises here: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/01/6-su...

S&P 500 returns by year: 2019 +31.2% 2020 +18.0% 2021 +28.5% 2022 -18.0% 2023 +26.1% 2024 +24.9% 2025 +19.4% Some thoughts on why higher-than-average returns are the biggest risk right now: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...

Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks of 2025 Small caps vs large caps Why is silver going vertical? Who are the rich millennials? When to spend $$$ in retirement Over-optimization is a disease Bowling is the best family holiday activity & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/anim...

Ellis would definitely work in private credit in the modern version of Die Hard

Took my first Waymo ride tonight It really is as magical as ppl say it is The future is gonna be so cool

Let’s say the US stock market falls 30% in 2026 That would take us back to levels last seen in January 2024 Not that bad This would be a wonderful buying opportunity right? It depend on the cause of the decline and your personal circumstances: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/a-30...

The Best Books I Read in 2025 awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/12/the-...

The kids are in bed Presents are under the tree The house is quiet One of my favorite beers every year Merry Christmas to all

I didn’t love Four Christmases when it first came out b/c my early-2000s Vince Vaughn expectations were too high But every year it grows on me a little bit It’s entering the Christmas movie rewatchable zone