Despite everything the US stock mkt is up ~19% over the past year But stocks like: NKE -75% TGT -55% MSFT -32% CRM -49% HOOD -54% COIN -59% DIS -49% are in the midst of large drawdowns Some thoughts on bottom-fishing in stocks that are getting killed: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/bott...

Corona on the water in nice weather is a tough combination to beat Spring break off to a good start

From 1926-2025 just 46 companies accounted for half of the $91 trillion in wealth created by the US stock market 60% of stocks underperformed T-bills Some thoughts on how to own the best stocks: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-...

Animal Spirits: Home Buyer's Remorse Are stocks getting cheaper? Recession fears How much do gas prices matter for the economy? There are so many rich ppl Wealth inequality vs. socialism Private credit redemptions & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/anim...

The S&P 500 is currently down 6.6% on the year If it finished the year at those levels (a big if) it would be the second worst year since 2009 To be fair there have only been 2 down years in that time: 2018 -4.2% 2022 -18.4% Not a lot of down years in this cycle

No one knows how long a correction will last when you're in it But buying stocks when they are down tends to be a good long-term strategy A look at what happens when you buy the stock market down 10%, 20% and 30%: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-...

Project Hail Mary is the kind of movie that reminds you why you love going to the movies

If you earn $500k/year you're in the top 1% of income earners in America How could this much money make you feel middle class in NYC? Why do so many rich ppl claim to be middle class? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/what...

Drawdown update from the highs: S&P 500 -8.0% R2000 -9.1% Nasdaq 100 -10.7% Gold -17.1% NVDA -18.5% MSFT -33.5% Bitcoin -47.5% HOOD -56.2%

Every Mag 7 stock is now in a double-digit drawdown: AAPL -11.3% NVDA -13.6% GOOG -16.3% AMZN -16.5% TSLA -20.9% META -24.1% MSFT -31.6%

Some definitions: -5% = pullback -10% = healthy correction -15% = correction -20% = bear market -30% = collapse -40% = crash -50% = crisis A short history of stock market pullbacks: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/a-sh...

Animal Spirits: The Best Stocks in History Markets rule geopolitics now Why would the Fed raise rates? Why aren't stocks down more this year? Why is gold down 20%? Why are new car payments so high? How to keep your customers happy & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/68869/

I asked Claude to create a dashboard of NBER recession indicators for me Seems like every time we test the economy w/a new geopolitical crisis it's a little weaker every time Also worth noting the US economy has weathered a lot of storms this decade and continued to grow

Here's a question: Which asset class will have worse returns for the remainder of the decade: Residential real estate or private equity? Let's investigate: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/the-...

Why are there so many redemption requests for private credit funds? Many reasons The biggest one in the wealth management space is an asset-liability-expectations mismatch in an illiquid fund structure Do you blame the advisor or the investor? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/an-a...

So how did they try to lower inflation in the 2020s? Well the government spent a bunch of money, imposed excessive tariffs and started a war that spiked energy prices Oh

Do you ever think about what a terrible decision it was to not show how Llewelyn dies at the end of No Country For Old Men? Why not just show it? Could have been a perfect movie Instead it's like 95% of a perfect movie Just me?

We have a new tradition: Every spring we now create a geopolitical crisis that pushes the country as close to a recession as possible just to see how strong the economy really is

This is still a fairly orderly correction From the highs: S&P 500 -6.1% Nasdaq 100 -7.8% R2000 -9.4% EAFE -10.9% EM -11.2%

Every Mag 7 stock is down this year

Twitter fired like 80% of their employees and the only problem is AI bots have overrun the platform and it goes down like once a week Other than that no issues

I’m get the idea that AI technology is the worst it will ever be and only get better from here But also iPhones have more or less plateaued Siri and Alexa have both never gotten better (Siri seemingly only gets worse) Why does AI have to just keep scaling up and improving?

A guy emailed me: "Financial advising seems like the perfect prey for AI to take over almost immediately." Here's my take: AI will help DIY investors AI will also help financial advisors & their clients Everyone will be better off awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/will...

Why do rich people still borrow money? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/why-...

Animal Spirits: The Perfect Price of Oil Are investors too complacent? Has a maturity wall ever actually mattered? The public doesn't want AI Who uses DoorDash? What retirement crisis? Private credit redemptions 1990s band mergers & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/anim...

I would have bet my life this picture was taken in 2017 Nope 2026

S&P 500 peak-to-trough drawdowns this decade: 2020 -33.9% 2021 -5.2% 2022 -25.4% 2023 -10.3% 2024 -8.5% 2025 -18.9% 2026 -3.4% (so far) Why isn't the market falling more? Why are investors ignoring the headlines? Are we due for a correction? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/are-...

How much do higher/rising oil prices impact the stock market? Not as much as you think What about when there's a war? It probably depends on how long it lasts awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/how-...

Good Fortune is just an OK comedy (like 6.6/10) But Keanu Reeves gives one of my favorite movie performances in a while He’s just so damn likable

Weakening labor market Higher gas prices Higher borrowing costs Higher utility bills Is it possible for consumer sentiment to go negative?

The private equity complex is in the midst of a pretty nasty crash Current drawdowns from the highs: Carlyle -25% Apollo -39% Ares -42% Blackstone -43% KKR -44% Blue Owl -61%

The stock market's reaction to war is often counterintuitive awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/geop...

Animal Spirits: A Wave of Redemptions Geopolitics vs the stock market vs AI Is inflation risk back? Is it time for a correction? The optimistic view on AI The most broken housing market in America The private credit crisis of confidence & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/anim...

Higher gas prices Higher interest rates Lower stock prices The market has spoken -- it doesn't want this war to last

Risk is off today: S&P 500 -2.2% Bitcoin -2.2% Nasdaq 100 -2.4% R2000 -3.4% Gold -4.7% EAFE -4.9% Emerging Mkts -6.7% Silver -8.9%

Some rules for dealing w/uncertainty: Strong opinions, loosely held Be skeptical, not cynical Discipline matters more than optimization If all else fails, simplify Doing nothing is a decision awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/03/10-r...

Watched Terminator 7: Department of War tonight Jon Connor and Kyle Reese get sent back in time to subtweet Sam Altman on behalf of Anthropic

A 42-year-old small business owner has a $2 million portfolio, no debt & no dependents But he's miserable running the business Wants to know if he can retire now and pull $170k/year in withdrawals Is this feasible? From a covered call strategy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/can-...

Doom is a wonderful sales tactic It's a terrible long-term investment strategy Some thoughts on why optimism remains the only logical long-term investment strategy even in the face of so much doom about AI: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/opti...

I wrote a new book. It comes out in May. In some form or another I've been working on this one for 10+ years. You can pre-order it now here: lnk.to/riskandrewar...

Tech predictions this decade: Crypto is going to take over the dollar Everyone is going to live in the metaverse NFTs are going to replace art DOGE is going to save the govt trillions I think it's totally fair to be skeptical about tech's AI forecasts

Animal Spirits: Everyone Hates AI AI doom reaches new all-time highs Is housing an AI hedge? AI needs a better PR agent A very weird stock market in 2026 The ex-US bull market OpenAI vs Anthropic Bitcoin is a software stock & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/anim...

Americans 55 & older now control: 45% of consumer spending 74% of the wealth What does this mean for the next generation, the housing market or the stock market? Some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/rich...

The AI downsides are obvious: job displacement, fraud, maybe Skynet, etc How about some positives? It's possible we need AI to fill the productivity gap that will be caused by the fertility crisis It might be coming at the perfect time awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/pros...

Bitcoin still acting like a software stock

A 30-year-old owes $470,000 on his house with a 6.375% mortgage rate Should he make early mortgage payments or continue investing in the stock market? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/earl...

Is it possible to bet on Polymarket that a 79 year old man will throw a temper tantrum today?

@bencarlson007.bsky.social's bookshelf game, impressive. Really need to get step up. Oh and conversation was great too. "When do Baby Boomers' homes hit the market?" is one of the most-asked questions clients/others ask. We go into that and a bunch more. www.youtube.com/watch?v=utrU...

The ex-U.S. trade is finally working Every major country is outperforming the S&P 500 this year The gap since the start of 2025 is widening Germany & South Korea haveoutperformed over the past 5 yrs Will it last? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/the-...

Bad things can & will happen But it's important to recognize so many dire predictions from this cycle never came to pass Spending 95% of your time worrying about things that happen 5% of the time is how to scare yourself out of markets that usually go up awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/02/some...