Lots of scary geopolitical headlines this year And yet... A really good year for stocks around the globe EM +25% Nasdaq 100 +19% R2000 +18% S&P 500 +10% EAFE +9%

Animal Spirits: A Fire Alarm For Interest Rates SpaceX IPO - long or short? Consumer sentiment is broken (forever) How disruption works in the stock market Pros & cons of higher bond yields Did crypto miss its moment? Diet Coke vs Coke Zero & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/anim...

My book is already on sale for just $15 You’re basically saving money by buying it www.amazon.com/Risk-Reward-...

What are rising long bond yields telling you? A coming debt crisis? A loss of faith in the system? Higher growth/inflation? A more normalized yield curve? High bond returns? All of the above? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/what...

90s nostalgia has hit the bumper sticker market

The summer pool club we belong to has been doing a Pirate’s ball every year for the past 70-ish years or so Found some pics from previous parties way back when Proving that a good theme party always works even across generations

Animal Spirits: The Fat Pitch For Bears Nvidia is too big Timing the market is hard Michael Burry called for a crash...again Rising rates Young people hate AI Unhappy rich people Wealth inequality in housing Harrison Ford's life advice & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/anim...

Everyone is freaking out about rising government bond yields...except for the stock market Rising yields on 30 year govt bonds and rising stock prices in both Japan and the US

Is This a Bubble? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/is-t...

"Just like you automate your savings for retirement, you should automate your charitable contributions." @bencarlson007.bsky.social on #MoneyUnplugged with @chrishillalx.bsky.social www.moneyunpluggedpodcast.com/episodes

Since 1975 the S&P 500 is up 12.5% per year That's good enough to turn $10,000 into $4.2 million awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/50-y...

From 1929-1932 the US stock market fell 86% From 1966-1981 the US stock market had negative real returns Japanese stocks peaked in 1989, didn't bottom until 2009 and had no new highs until 2024 How can you be a long-term investor when these risks exist? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/my-n...

Animal Spirits: This Won't End Well A melt up in stocks that makes sense Why I wrote a new book The semiconductor boom Why it's not a bubble (yet) What an AI bust would look like Crypto soccer dads Longevity risk & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/anim...

It's publication day for my new book! Risk & Reward is now available Tons of my favorite charts, stories and anecdotes I read the audio version of the book myself I had a lot of fun writing this I think it's the best thing I've ever written

Here's something most ppl probably don't realize: College tuition has been rising much slower than the overall pace of inflation the past 10 years Seems like good news

Why are hedge fund managers always so bearish? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/why-...

The Nasdaq 100 now has a higher return over the past 10 years than: Japan in the 1980s The Dow in the Roaring 20s The S&P in the 1950s Still trails the 1990s tech run but it's close Is this it? Is the melt-up here? How much crazier could it get? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/the-...

$6.18/gallon in California It's basically like a European country now

Approximate US govt debt: 1930 - $16 bn 1940 - $43 bn 1950 - $257 bn 1960 - $286 bn 1970 - $368 bn 1980 - $845 bn 1990 - $3 tn 2000 - $6 tn 2010 - $12 tn 2020 - $23 tn Now - $39 tn Why has there never been a govt debt crisis? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/a-go...

Something I learned recently: In WWII Hitler planned on dropping money from planes all over Britain to cause hyperinflation and panic (didn't happen b/c they couldn't spare the planes) awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/some...

Everyone is waiting for AI to take all the jobs but it's not happening yet The unemployment rate was higher than the current level (4.3%) from March 1970 to March 1998 Prime age labor force participation ratio is essentially at the all-time highs of the late-90s

% of ppl who are architects in rom-coms: 73% In real life: <1%

It's kind of amazing how many of these vertical charts exist today

Animal Spirits: The Stock Market is Doing Something We've Never Seen Before Paul Tudor Jones on valuations Hyperscaler super growth Govt debt to GDP at 100% A lost decade for long bonds Why housing didn't turn into a bubble this time & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/69650/

A survey shows 40% of ppl making $500k or more live paycheck-to-paycheck How is this possible? 1. Social media makes rich ppl not feel rich 2. Surveys are more unreliable (watch what ppl do not what they say) 3. The pandemic broke sentiment readings awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/05/half...

Today we made the difficult decision to lay off a decent chunk of our employees b/c AI has made everyone more efficient In unrelated news, our stock price is down 50% and we massively over-hired coming out of the pandemic

Long-term government bonds now have a negative return over the past 11 years (including the income) Also still currently in a 40% drawdown from the 2020 highs

The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg each put out an analysis piece about the prediction market winners/losers w/in days of each other This is like when Armageddon and Deep Impact were both released in the same summer

Sad sign at my gym I dream of a world where there are more bars, restaurants and gyms that ban the use of phones like they do at The Masters and comedy shows

Coming out of the Great Financial Crisis the entire US stock market was worth around $10 trillion Today the combined market cap of Nvidia, Google, Microsoft and Apple alone is almost $17 trillion

The Fed kept rates at 0% for a long time Lots of pundits predicted it would lead to a crisis and maybe even hyperinflation Didn't happen Then they raised rates b/c of the pandemic inflation Still no crisis Why? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-...

The S&P 500 has now doubled from the lows of the 2022 inflation bear market

Animal Spirits: Paycheck-to-Paycheck on $500k AI's impact on financial advisors An ode to Tim Cook The world's biggest ETF Why didn't the Fed cause a crisis? 2 stocks I was wrong about Surveys are broken Mid life crisis talk and more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/anim...

Why didn't the stock market fall further in the face of a war in the Middle East and an oil price spike? Why are we already back at new all-time highs? In a word -- earnings awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/dont...

The S&P 500 is now up ~17% annually for the past 17 years We're less than 60% away from perhaps the greatest US bull market of all-time This is now a pantheon-level bull market awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/an-a...

45 year old (+wife & 2 kids) has $1 million saved Spends $12k/month Saves $130k/year Wants to retire at age 55 b/c he hates his job Can he retire early? How much does he need? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/how-...

Animal Spirits: Investing Isn't Supposed to be Fun Why does the stock market keep going up? The stock market is right more than you are This is an all-timer bull market Why consumers keep spending Michael's #1 rule of investing and more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/anim...

Surprising but true: The bottom 90% have seen their wealth grow at a faster pace than the top 10% this decade Obviously it's coming off a smaller base but I'm not sure how many ppl would believe this if you told them awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/how-...

New all-time highs in the 1980-2000 bull market: 505 New highs in the 2009-2026 bull market: 447 % of trading days at ATHs in the 2020s: 13% ATHs this year (so far): 7 This bull market is relentless awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/new-...

Not to toot my own horn but that’s a perfect pour for a homemade black & tan

Why are consumers still spending money despite higher prices, tariffs, energy price spikes, war, etc? You cannot overstate how much wealth has been created in the stock and housing markets in the 2020s Taking stock of consumer balance sheets: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/how-...

YTD returns a little more than 2 weeks ago: S&P 500 -7.1% Nasdaq 100 -9.0% R2000 -2.5% Now: S&P 500 +4.4% Nasdaq 100 +5.6% R2000 +12.2% It's a strong opinions, loosely held market

If you take out the pandemic data (it was a fake recession) the unemployment rate has been sub-5% for 125 months Is this the longest economic expansion in history? Why has everyone been so wrong about this cycle? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-...

There's an older gentleman next to me at my airport gate doing calf raises and push-ups Not gonna lie I'm impressed w/the dedication

S&P 500 total returns from: Liberation Day bottom +41% Inflation bottom +104% Covid bottom +238% Euro crisis bottom +715% GFC bottom +1292% awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/tops...

Animal Spirits: Everyone Back in the Boat Tax day The benefits of writing every day AI vs software stocks Millennials vs Baby Boomers Housing prices vs demographics Are young ppl screwed (again)? Why is Nike getting killed? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/anim...

“The business of life is the acquisition of memories. In the end that’s all there is.” -Mr. Carson awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-...

The top 1% has the same amount of wealth as the bottom 90% (32% each) The top 1% owns more than 50% of the stocks The top 0.1% have 15% of the wealth Why don't objectively rich ppl feel rich? There are always ppl richer than you awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-...

I have a big announcement to make: After years of exhaustive research I have determined that the world’s best Miami Vice resides at Stilts in Marco Island It’s the perfect mix

The S&P 500 has experienced just two down years (2018 & 2022) since 2009 The Nasdaq 100 has had just one down year in that time (2022) Are we due for a bad year? Is this one of the best bull runs ever? Some thoughts on down years in the stock market: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/04/the-...