"If we assume that this is governed by a Poisson distribution—a good first approximation for random events—the probability of observing zero deaths in 2020–24 without the vaccine is:
P(0) = e⁻²²·⁷ ≈ 1.4 × 10⁻¹⁰
That's roughly 1 in 7 billion—ie, essentially impossible"
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 month ago
