Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)

The Super Bowl ad situation reminds me of last summer when DT vetoed TMUS buying EchoStar spectrum so SpaceX had to buy it instead...

I guess the Italians are getting dearMoon vibes about now...

My new blog post on the problem with Starship and orbital data centers tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/02...

Smart to give @tmfassociates.bsky.social the last word about Elon: “The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”

With my comments on the merger...

LOL...

"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet #linklog

Good debate on SpaceX's IPO prospects interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-...

Lufthansa Group announced it'll install Elon Musk's Starlink Wi-Fi across its *entire* fleet. Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti. Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.

My new blog post on how space-based data centers are a Rorschach test for potential SpaceX IPO investors tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01...

I enjoy annoying billionaires...

Thoughts on the fascinating EchoStar-SpaceX deal today tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/09...

🛰️🚀 ViaSat-3 F2 is scheduled to launch in the second half of October aboard United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s Atlas V551 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and is anticipated to provide more bandwidth capacity than the entire existing fleet when it comes into service. More: https://vsat.co/4mH64eZ

Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"

Which company claims to have a whole bunch of F9 launches planned over the next 12 months but never meets their planned schedule for satellite delivery? Maybe the #cluelesscult know?

This is fascinating, especially noting reduction in SpaceX valuation from $500B whisper number earlier this year. I don't think its wise to do more V2 Starships that blow up as a "learning opportunity" if that hurts public perceptions of progress finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...

A Freakonomics podcast on the economics of satellite, featuring Rachel Jewett and me freakonomics.com/podcast/sate...

Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream? www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...

Striking developments in the Ligado bankruptcy case today, as a dispute breaks out between Viasat and AST over whether AST will be able to try and compete with Viasat in L-band outside the US. My new blog post tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...

What's the key takeaway from AST's results announcement (other than the 2-3 month slip)? Now they only talk about making 40 sets of microns & don't say anything about completing the actual satellites. Not a surprise given the pending redesign challenges for FM3

My new blog post on Globalstar's launch delays and the potential implications for EchoStar's pending decision on launch contracts tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...

I've now published my new 100+ page report on everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask, where I discuss the implications of EchoStar's announcement yesterday tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...

Investor argued that Viasat is being priced as a challenged #satcom firm, and the market is “barely” valuing its defense part. "The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."

Not that it really matters since the FAA under Biden/Buttigieg probably would've let them do it too but SpaceX is gonna break the law, violate NEPA etc and blow through the 90 seconds of annual static burn time at Boca Chica

My new blog post discusses how AST and AT&T have been annoying the FCC which now needs to decide whether to take action over violations of AST's experimental license conditions tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...

My new blog post on the role of LEO satellites in the BEAD program and the estimates of Starlink capacity limits published last week by XLab tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...

Liechtenstein just published the #Rivada decision: Rivada loses its frequency allocations in Liechtenstein. The communications authority revoked the rights to use ITU frequencies 3ECOM-1 & -3 due to major breaches of obligations, including missed payments and failure to prove project financing.

"The Enron Intelligent Network's global fiber & satellite distribution & embedded software intelligence sets it apart from other network providers. The EIN bypasses traditional fragmented and bottlenecked public Internet routes to deliver faster, higher-quality data"

A new blog post on Starlink's amazing revenue growth, with details from their newly revealed accounts and revelations about the massive prepayments they've received from unknown sources tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...

Not the headline I'd pick, but new details on Starlink finances are interesting www.wsj.com/tech/elon-mu...

Virgin Atlantic will install the Starlink inflight internet service, bringing streaming levels of service to its entire fleet, part of a push that also includes interior retrofits and more premium seats on board. #PaxEx

Updated version now published, with more discussion of today's reports on a new funding round which is said to include a primary equity raise for the first time in three years

My new blog post asking when will SpaceX have a new secondary funding round, and discussing why this remains important tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...

Decided it was about time to get back to blogging, as the audience is fragmenting and its getting harder and harder to find threads, especially on X, and I thought it would be useful to highlight some of my recent research publications tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...

Despite the spin, LEO can't be that important if they can wait until Telesat IFC is ready in 2028-29 and then it's mainly to "cover remote areas — such as the South Pacific or the Antarctic region"

I thought the selection of Starship for NASA's 1st HLS mission was problematic at best. That it was too big of a bite to chew for the company in the time frame expected & it was a better choice for a more advanced mission later. We knew too their costs were aspirational at best. We still bought it.

NPR podcast on Starlink's lead in satellite internet www.npr.org/2025/06/30/1...

WTF! Has the FCC just completely removed IBFS and redirected every user to ICFS (requiring a login), while breaking every single old link to these filings/comments? e.g. licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downl...

One of the SpaceX fan cams caught a crane collapse at Starbase in Texas. This kind of thing only happens from a completely unacceptable safety culture failure and I'd be shocked if there wasn't a death here

Good, realistic report from MoffettNathanson on D2D today: ~$3B global SAM/~$10B TAM, but "ROIs remain questionable...this doesn't look like an industry with pricing power...With access to MSS spectrum...we believe SpaceX would take a dominant position in the D2D market"

T-Mobile's T-Satellite Starlink roaming service launches nationwide July 23 in messaging-only form, with data for "a select group" of apps coming Oct. 1. It's included on its Experience Beyond plan--$100/month on one line--and $10/mo. otherwise. (Me, I can think of better uses for a spare Hamilton.)

Cults are commonplace in the space industry (billionaire leaders that attract followers plus complex tech that few understand). SpaceX aren't even the worst, because they aren't publicly traded and so most of their fans don't have as much at stake financially.

This is just ridiculous. It ignores the 100% Starship failure rate to date and instead assumes it's like Falcon with only a 25% chance of failure??? Is Starship much harder than Falcon or not? You can't have it both ways...

EU 2GHz MSS report. Basically confirms that if 2x5MHz is reserved for IoT, there will only be two licenses (one 2x15 and one 2x10) that everyone is competing for, and Viasat will keep one of them (at least initially) for EAN op.europa.eu/fr/publicati...

Wen Mars?

How does SpaceX "work" FCC Commissioners?

Well AST finally filed its long awaited SCS app with the FCC today & its an embarrassing climbdown compared to prior expectations. First they admit that a waiver is needed of the GIA requirement, because they don't have full CONUS spectrum (1/n) licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downl...

The global impact of Trump vs. Musk politi.co/45bOQR2 via @politico.com