Tim Farrar
@tmfassociates.bsky.social
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Consultant in satellite communications and wireless spectrum. I enjoy annoying billionaires.
pinned post!
Decided it was about time to get back to blogging, as the audience is fragmenting and its getting harder and harder to find threads, especially on X, and I thought it would be useful to highlight some of my recent research publications
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
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TMF Associates blog » Back to blogging…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/06/back-to-blogging/
7 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Jonathan McDowell
1 day ago
Elon has apparently finally abandoned his 20 year long assertion that he was just about to build a city on Mars any day now :-)
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The Super Bowl ad situation reminds me of last summer when DT vetoed TMUS buying EchoStar spectrum so SpaceX had to buy it instead...
2 days ago
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I guess the Italians are getting dearMoon vibes about now...
2 days ago
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My new blog post on the problem with Starship and orbital data centers
tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/02...
2 days ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rob Pegoraro
8 days ago
Smart to give
@tmfassociates.bsky.social
the last word about Elon: “The whole thing relies on confidence in him,” Farrar said. “If any piece of his empire was to fall by the wayside or go bankrupt, then it would undermine everything.”
add a skeleton here at some point
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With my comments on the merger...
add a skeleton here at some point
8 days ago
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LOL...
8 days ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
grand theft eigenvalue 🔆
20 days ago
"It’s also undeniable that SpaceX needs more than just Starlink to justify a $1.5T valuation, given that even its expected lead investment bank, Morgan Stanley, only thinks Starlink revenues will get to $126B in 2040." -- this is the sharpest thing i've read about the SpaceX IPO yet
#linklog
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TMF Associates blog » SpaceX’s Rorschach test
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01/03/spacexs-rorschach-test/
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Good debate on SpaceX's IPO prospects
interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-...
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The Key Questions for a Potential SpaceX IPO in 2026: Analyst Roundtable | January/February 2026
https://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/january-february-2026/the-key-questions-for-a-potential-spacex-ipo-in-2026-analyst-roundtable
21 days ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Jason Rabinowitz
28 days ago
Lufthansa Group announced it'll install Elon Musk's Starlink Wi-Fi across its *entire* fleet. Notably, this isn't just for Lufthansa or the big core LHG airlines. It's a deal for ~850 aircraft across the entire group, even Air Dolomiti. Installs begin later this year, done by 2029.
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My new blog post on how space-based data centers are a Rorschach test for potential SpaceX IPO investors
tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01...
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TMF Associates blog » SpaceX’s Rorschach test
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2026/01/03/spacexs-rorschach-test/
about 1 month ago
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I enjoy annoying billionaires...
5 months ago
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Thoughts on the fascinating EchoStar-SpaceX deal today
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/09...
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TMF Associates blog » SpaceX disrupts everyone’s plans again…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/09/08/spacex-disrupts-everyones-plans-again/
5 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Viasat
5 months ago
🛰️🚀 ViaSat-3 F2 is scheduled to launch in the second half of October aboard United Launch Alliance (ULA)'s Atlas V551 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, and is anticipated to provide more bandwidth capacity than the entire existing fleet when it comes into service. More:
https://vsat.co/4mH64eZ
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Seems like a lot of pressure for everything to go right with the Starship launch (or at least to credibly declare it a success) if it's "part of a broader vision/strategy"
6 months ago
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Which company claims to have a whole bunch of F9 launches planned over the next 12 months but never meets their planned schedule for satellite delivery? Maybe the
#cluelesscult
know?
add a skeleton here at some point
6 months ago
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This is fascinating, especially noting reduction in SpaceX valuation from $500B whisper number earlier this year. I don't think its wise to do more V2 Starships that blow up as a "learning opportunity" if that hurts public perceptions of progress
finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-...
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SpaceX’s Expensive Starship Explosions Are Starting to Add Up
Shortly after the incident, roughly 20% of the engineering group working on the company’s flagship Falcon 9 program were reassigned for six months to Starship, a reusable rocket Musk hopes will someda...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/spacex-expensive-starship-explosions-starting-121511874.html
6 months ago
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A Freakonomics podcast on the economics of satellite, featuring Rachel Jewett and me
freakonomics.com/podcast/sate...
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Satellites - Freakonomics
Satellites - Freakonomics
https://freakonomics.com/podcast/satellites/
6 months ago
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Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream?
www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemob...
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Analysis: Is AST SpaceMobile launch schedule a pipedream?
AST SpaceMobile has an aggressive schedule for the launch of its Block2 Bluebird LEO satellites but there could be a hitch in its plans.
https://www.mobileworldlive.com/ast-spacemobile/analysis-is-ast-spacemobile-launch-schedule-a-pipedream/
6 months ago
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Striking developments in the Ligado bankruptcy case today, as a dispute breaks out between Viasat and AST over whether AST will be able to try and compete with Viasat in L-band outside the US. My new blog post
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
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TMF Associates blog » Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08/14/those-who-cannot-remember-the-past-are-condemned-to-repeat-it/
6 months ago
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What's the key takeaway from AST's results announcement (other than the 2-3 month slip)? Now they only talk about making 40 sets of microns & don't say anything about completing the actual satellites. Not a surprise given the pending redesign challenges for FM3
6 months ago
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My new blog post on Globalstar's launch delays and the potential implications for EchoStar's pending decision on launch contracts
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
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TMF Associates blog » Choose carefully Charlie…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08/08/choose-carefully-charlie/
6 months ago
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I've now published my new 100+ page report on everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask, where I discuss the implications of EchoStar's announcement yesterday
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08...
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TMF Associates blog » Everything you wanted to know about D2D but were afraid to ask…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/08/02/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-d2d-but-were-afraid-to-ask/
6 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rafael Mentges
6 months ago
Investor argued that Viasat is being priced as a challenged
#satcom
firm, and the market is “barely” valuing its defense part. "The firm’s analysis found that the defense business alone could support a valuation of over $50/share, which is more than 3 times the current stock price."
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Viasat Investor Advocates for Spin-Off of Defense Business
An investor in Viasat called for a spin-off of its Defense and Advanced Technologies (DAT) business, calling it undervalued.
https://www.satellitetoday.com/finance/2025/07/31/viasat-investor-advocates-for-spin-off-of-defense-business/
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rude Law Dog
7 months ago
Not that it really matters since the FAA under Biden/Buttigieg probably would've let them do it too but SpaceX is gonna break the law, violate NEPA etc and blow through the 90 seconds of annual static burn time at Boca Chica
add a skeleton here at some point
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My new blog post discusses how AST and AT&T have been annoying the FCC which now needs to decide whether to take action over violations of AST's experimental license conditions
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
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TMF Associates blog » How to annoy the FCC…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/25/how-to-annoy-the-fcc/
7 months ago
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My new blog post on the role of LEO satellites in the BEAD program and the estimates of Starlink capacity limits published last week by XLab
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
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TMF Associates blog » The fight over BEAD funding for satellite
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/23/the-fight-over-bead-funding-for-satellite/
7 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rafael Mentges
7 months ago
Liechtenstein just published the
#Rivada
decision: Rivada loses its frequency allocations in Liechtenstein. The communications authority revoked the rights to use ITU frequencies 3ECOM-1 & -3 due to major breaches of obligations, including missed payments and failure to prove project financing.
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06.09.2024: Entscheidung zur Untersagung der Tätigkeit der iMetrik AG - Liechtensteinische Landesverwaltung
https://www.llv.li/de/landesverwaltung/amt-fuer-kommunikation/entscheidungen/02.10.2024-verfuegung-zum-widerruf-der-vorlaeufigen-frequenzzuteilung-zugunsten-der-rivada-ag
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"The Enron Intelligent Network's global fiber & satellite distribution & embedded software intelligence sets it apart from other network providers. The EIN bypasses traditional fragmented and bottlenecked public Internet routes to deliver faster, higher-quality data"
7 months ago
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A new blog post on Starlink's amazing revenue growth, with details from their newly revealed accounts and revelations about the massive prepayments they've received from unknown sources
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
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TMF Associates blog » Starlink’s amazing revenue growth
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/14/starlinks-amazing-revenue-growth/
7 months ago
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Not the headline I'd pick, but new details on Starlink finances are interesting
www.wsj.com/tech/elon-mu...
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As Tesla Stumbles, SpaceX’s Finances Go From Strength to Strength
Much of Elon Musk’s business empire is in disarray, but his rocket-and-satellite company is riding high.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/elon-musk-spacex-value-202cbdb1?st=nchuKc&reflink=article_copyURL_share
7 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Seth Miller
7 months ago
Virgin Atlantic will install the Starlink inflight internet service, bringing streaming levels of service to its entire fleet, part of a push that also includes interior retrofits and more premium seats on board. #PaxEx
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Virgin Atlantic Picks Starlink for IFC Renewal, Plans Premium Expansion
Virgin Atlantic will install the Starlink inflight internet service, bringing streaming levels of service to its entire fleet, part of a push that also includes interior retrofits and more premium seats on board.
https://paxex.aero/virgin-atlantic-picks-starlink-for-ifc-renewal-plans-premium-expansion/?utm_source=bsky&utm_campaign=autopost
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Updated version now published, with more discussion of today's reports on a new funding round which is said to include a primary equity raise for the first time in three years
add a skeleton here at some point
7 months ago
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My new blog post asking when will SpaceX have a new secondary funding round, and discussing why this remains important
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
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TMF Associates blog » When will SpaceX have a new secondary round?
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/07/when-will-spacex-have-a-new-secondary-round/
7 months ago
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Decided it was about time to get back to blogging, as the audience is fragmenting and its getting harder and harder to find threads, especially on X, and I thought it would be useful to highlight some of my recent research publications
tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07...
loading . . .
TMF Associates blog » Back to blogging…
https://tmfassociates.com/blog/2025/07/06/back-to-blogging/
7 months ago
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Despite the spin, LEO can't be that important if they can wait until Telesat IFC is ready in 2028-29 and then it's mainly to "cover remote areas — such as the South Pacific or the Antarctic region"
add a skeleton here at some point
7 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Gene J. Mikulka
8 months ago
I thought the selection of Starship for NASA's 1st HLS mission was problematic at best. That it was too big of a bite to chew for the company in the time frame expected & it was a better choice for a more advanced mission later. We knew too their costs were aspirational at best. We still bought it.
add a skeleton here at some point
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NPR podcast on Starlink's lead in satellite internet
www.npr.org/2025/06/30/1...
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Can Starlink stay ahead in satellite internet? : The Indicator from Planet Money
Whether you're watching Love Island in an RV or streaming a playlist in a remote California campground, if you're using satellite internet, odds are you're using Elon Musk's Starlink.Today on the show...
https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/1255015982/starlink-satellite-internet-musk-doge-bezos
8 months ago
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WTF! Has the FCC just completely removed IBFS and redirected every user to ICFS (requiring a login), while breaking every single old link to these filings/comments? e.g.
licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downl...
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https://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=18570613
8 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rude Law Dog
8 months ago
One of the SpaceX fan cams caught a crane collapse at Starbase in Texas. This kind of thing only happens from a completely unacceptable safety culture failure and I'd be shocked if there wasn't a death here
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Good, realistic report from MoffettNathanson on D2D today: ~$3B global SAM/~$10B TAM, but "ROIs remain questionable...this doesn't look like an industry with pricing power...With access to MSS spectrum...we believe SpaceX would take a dominant position in the D2D market"
8 months ago
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Rob Pegoraro
8 months ago
T-Mobile's T-Satellite Starlink roaming service launches nationwide July 23 in messaging-only form, with data for "a select group" of apps coming Oct. 1. It's included on its Experience Beyond plan--$100/month on one line--and $10/mo. otherwise. (Me, I can think of better uses for a spare Hamilton.)
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https://www.t-mobile.com/news/network/best-network-in-america
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reposted by
Tim Farrar
Cults are commonplace in the space industry (billionaire leaders that attract followers plus complex tech that few understand). SpaceX aren't even the worst, because they aren't publicly traded and so most of their fans don't have as much at stake financially.
8 months ago
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This is just ridiculous. It ignores the 100% Starship failure rate to date and instead assumes it's like Falcon with only a 25% chance of failure??? Is Starship much harder than Falcon or not? You can't have it both ways...
8 months ago
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EU 2GHz MSS report. Basically confirms that if 2x5MHz is reserved for IoT, there will only be two licenses (one 2x15 and one 2x10) that everyone is competing for, and Viasat will keep one of them (at least initially) for EAN
op.europa.eu/fr/publicati...
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Study on mobile satellite services (MSS) in the 2 GHz band in the EU - Publications Office of the EU
In 2007, the 2GHz MSS band was harmonized in the EU so that the European Commission (EC) was able to select the operators for the band and attached conditions of authorisation. Two operators, known to...
https://op.europa.eu/fr/publication-detail/-/publication/4c769094-41b5-11f0-b9f2-01aa75ed71a1/language-en
8 months ago
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Wen Mars?
8 months ago
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How does SpaceX "work" FCC Commissioners?
8 months ago
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Well AST finally filed its long awaited SCS app with the FCC today & its an embarrassing climbdown compared to prior expectations. First they admit that a waiver is needed of the GIA requirement, because they don't have full CONUS spectrum (1/n)
licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/downl...
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International Communications Filing System
https://licensing.fcc.gov/myibfs/download.do?attachment_key=36237898
8 months ago
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The global impact of Trump vs. Musk
politi.co/45bOQR2
via
@politico.com
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The global impact of Trump vs. Musk
https://politi.co/45bOQR2
8 months ago
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