Remember the Barnier Staircase? To mark the 10th anniversary of the Brexit referendum, we've devised the new, improved 'UKICE staircase' - here modelled by Mr Barnier himself - mapping out the UK's future EU relationship options. Read all about it here: ukandeu.ac.uk/introducing-...

It's ten years since the EU referendum and the UK still can't agree on what Brexit should look like. Here I argue why the Lib Dems' plan to join the single market is no silver bullet. All of the 'pain' of membership without the 'gain' of having a seat at the table. ukandeu.ac.uk/no-eea-sy-op...

"Brexit has revealed the UK’s regulatory instincts to be much more European than many assumed." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social looks at Brexit and regulation, arguing that despite deregulation being a key aim of Brexit, little divergence has taken place 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-ten-y...

Obviously a day for Brexit reports: this one from @jreland.bsky.social & @csbarnard14.bsky.social on REUL and alignment consoc.org.uk/publications...

New report out today with @cbarnard.bsky.social on how the UK tried - and largely failed - to take back control of regulation after Brexit. Thanks to the Constitution Society and Federal Trust for publishing. consoc.org.uk/publications...

My contribution to our 'Brexit ten years on' blog series. On how Brexit has proven the UK's regulatory instincts to, in fact, be quite European. ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-ten-y...

insomniac - how about listening to me and @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social talk to Alex Forsyth about how - and how far - the UK has used its post-Brexit freedoms .. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/... @instituteforgovernment.org.uk

We've got a new report out complete with a 'staircase' of options for the future UK-EU relationship. You can find a quick digest of it here: ukandeu.ac.uk/introducing-...

The Today programme pushing the 'NI rioters have legitimate concerns' line again... Perhaps they should reflect on the role their deeply misleading series of 'undercover' reports about migrants might have played in all this

This seems a very confused piece to me. 1) Cites Switzerland as the model but then calls for single market + customs union (Swiss are in neither). 2) SM + CU is basically full EU membership but with no political/legal influence. Why choose that over rejoin? giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Loath as I am to praise the boss, this is a tour de force on the Brexit state of play

So we now know that EU alignment bill will be called the 'European Partnership Bill'. Key piece of info from the explanatory notes is that govt will not just get powers to align on SPS/ETS/electricity, but also on other areas in future assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a0453...

Here's my hot take on the most lukewarm of speeches

Starmerism a nutshell: "Incremental change won't cut it." "Britain at the heart of Europe." And then he doesn't even nudge at his EU red lines.

Alignment on goods, is the feeling mutual? encompass-europe.com/comment/alig... @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social

My latest bucket of cold water

New divergence tracker is out. If there's one clear message it's that - for a govt increasingly intent on EU alignment - there is an awful lot of divergence going on. Speaks to how hard it is to keep pace with the EU without formal mechanisms for dynamic alignment.

It’s a Wout damn time! 📸 Jasper Jacobs

"Under a 10-20 year system, a worker would spend a decade or more in which their entire immigration status — and [thus] their family’s home, their children’s schooling, their right to remain — depends on maintaining the goodwill of a single employer. That is a structurally coercive relationship."

"But from an economic perspective, the notion of tailoring regulation is a contradiction in terms." 🎙️ @jreland.bsky.social discusses why there has been less meaningful divergence from the EU than expected since Brexit 🎧 Catch up on the episode in full 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/the...

Had to read this several times to be sure.. HSE consulted on making it easier to export hazardous chemicals without an importing country's consent. Only 1 in 10 agreed. Many flagged safety and env risks. HSE response? Let's do it anyway to cut 'barriers to trade' and make exports ‘more efficient’.

Here's my assessment of the govt's new memo on aligning with EU SPS rules. It tells us govt is v keen to move fast on SPS - seeing it as key to their "political argument" for closer EU relations. But the issue is a) implementation could take a while and b) voters unlikely to feel a big effect.

For all the technical detail, the politics of this statement is very interesting. It shows us just how keen the govt is to get the SPS deal done: a) by unfussily committing to align with the vast majority of EU regs and b) by clearly telling businesses to get ready to adapt.

UK government releases list of 76 EU laws that it says UK will align with under food standards treaty with EU www.gov.uk/government/n...

For those interested, I've also written a blog summing up the report's findings ukandeu.ac.uk/alignment-wi...

Big new report out from us today looking at the state of UK-EU alignment and divergence. The key findings are that 1) the UK govt is turning to greater 'alignment' with EU rules as 'Brexit benefits' from divergence have been hard to come by. But 2) alignment is much easier said than done.

Six years on, geopolitics is impacting severely on Brexit choices. By @jreland.bsky.social and me ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-in-a-...

Six years after Brexit, how has the UK taken advantage of the regulatory freedoms which Brexit afforded it? I've got a new paper out looking into that question for the French High Commission for Strategy and Planning www.strategie-plan.gouv.fr/en/publicati...

Appreciate there are bigger stories right now... but our new divergence tracker shows this govt is (surprisingly) doing a better job than the Cons of diverging from EU rules (because its plans are less extreme). But it also demonstrates how slim the regulatory "benefits of Brexit" are in reality.

⏰ SAVE THE DATE ⏰ This January marks 6 years since the UK's departure from the EU To discuss the year ahead in UK-EU relations, join @anandmenon.bsky.social, @jreland.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & Sir Ivan Rogers 📆 Fri 30 Jan, 1pm GMT 💻 Online ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

My assessment of Starmer's latest EU gambit. His rhetoric on "alignment" may be getting bolder but the trade-offs remain the same. The UK will not get much closer alignment with the single market unless it accepts free movement + budget contributions. ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...

"But a customs union is far from being a silver bullet for the UK’s economic woes, and it does have some potential downsides." ✍️As debates about the UK entering into a customs union with the EU resurface, Joël Reland looks at what this would mean https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs-union-worth-it/

My take on the customs union debate: ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs...

"But any revival of the multilateral order cannot mean a return to the status quo ante." ✍️ Ahead of our report on the crisis in multilateralism and what the UK and EU can do, @jreland.bsky.social reflects on some of the key challenges ⏲️ Full report out tomorrow ukandeu.ac.uk/the-crisis-o...

Key points re customs union: - The UK cannot join *the* customs union. It would need to negotiate a new bilateral deal. - It would get rid of some, but not all, of the trade admin Brexit caused. - UK effectively loses control of its 'independent trade policy' ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy? This summary of the new NBER working paper argues that "there is compelling evidence that Brexit has indeed had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity." Read in full👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impa...

Interesting piece - regulatory divergence is also an issue within the EU. Though I think it's striking that - contra to all the current calls to slash red-tape - the logical way out of the problem is *more* EU legislation to harmonise standards giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Eh?? A customs union would impose constraints on sovereignty (mostly around trade policy) but not on planning regs... If this info has been briefed by pro-CU figures then I don't hold much hope for their efforts. I recommend our explainer instead: ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

And why does he think the opposite happened? More red tape is the logical consequence of de-integrating from your largest trading market. More complicated to import and export. Only the biggest firms can afford to bear those costs.

I have a new blog post out with The UK In A Changing Europe on how lower migration will be bad for the UK economy: ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

Yesterday Nigel Farage argued that the UK has failed to grasp Brexit opportunities to deregulate, which his 'pro-business' government would deliver. I've got a piece in the Independent arguing why that is a misreading both of Brexit history and economics. www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexi...

Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K. This will have significant consequences, both economic and political. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

My take on the latest strange iteration in UK Brexit policy. We now have a government which openly laments the economic costs of Brexit, but rules out most of the options for dealing with it ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

"What voluntary alignment does mean is a clunky process of copying and pasting new EU regulations onto the UK statute book for limited economic gain. It is a high-effort, low-reward strategy." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social reflects on Labour's Brexit trap ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

Our new divergence is tracker out: auditing the extent to which UK/EU rules and regs have aligned/diverged since June. It highlights the increasingly awkward position which the UK occupies: of wanting to act like the EU on most regulatory issues, but without being part of the club.

After years of making the running on immigration, Farage may this week have handed the initiative back to his opponents'. @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the unpopularity of Reform's proposals on ILR ukandeu.ac.uk/reforms-radi...

Interesting piece on the success of the Social Democratic government in Spain and the lessons for Labour. The penultimate paragraph was particularly striking renewal.org.uk/articles/dar...