Alignment on goods, is the feeling mutual? encompass-europe.com/comment/alig... @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social

My latest bucket of cold water

New divergence tracker is out. If there's one clear message it's that - for a govt increasingly intent on EU alignment - there is an awful lot of divergence going on. Speaks to how hard it is to keep pace with the EU without formal mechanisms for dynamic alignment.

It’s a Wout damn time! 📸 Jasper Jacobs

"Under a 10-20 year system, a worker would spend a decade or more in which their entire immigration status — and [thus] their family’s home, their children’s schooling, their right to remain — depends on maintaining the goodwill of a single employer. That is a structurally coercive relationship."

"But from an economic perspective, the notion of tailoring regulation is a contradiction in terms." 🎙️ @jreland.bsky.social discusses why there has been less meaningful divergence from the EU than expected since Brexit 🎧 Catch up on the episode in full 🔗 ukandeu.ac.uk/podcasts/the...

Had to read this several times to be sure.. HSE consulted on making it easier to export hazardous chemicals without an importing country's consent. Only 1 in 10 agreed. Many flagged safety and env risks. HSE response? Let's do it anyway to cut 'barriers to trade' and make exports ‘more efficient’.

Here's my assessment of the govt's new memo on aligning with EU SPS rules. It tells us govt is v keen to move fast on SPS - seeing it as key to their "political argument" for closer EU relations. But the issue is a) implementation could take a while and b) voters unlikely to feel a big effect.

For all the technical detail, the politics of this statement is very interesting. It shows us just how keen the govt is to get the SPS deal done: a) by unfussily committing to align with the vast majority of EU regs and b) by clearly telling businesses to get ready to adapt.

UK government releases list of 76 EU laws that it says UK will align with under food standards treaty with EU www.gov.uk/government/n...

For those interested, I've also written a blog summing up the report's findings ukandeu.ac.uk/alignment-wi...

Big new report out from us today looking at the state of UK-EU alignment and divergence. The key findings are that 1) the UK govt is turning to greater 'alignment' with EU rules as 'Brexit benefits' from divergence have been hard to come by. But 2) alignment is much easier said than done.

Six years on, geopolitics is impacting severely on Brexit choices. By @jreland.bsky.social and me ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-in-a-...

Six years after Brexit, how has the UK taken advantage of the regulatory freedoms which Brexit afforded it? I've got a new paper out looking into that question for the French High Commission for Strategy and Planning www.strategie-plan.gouv.fr/en/publicati...

Appreciate there are bigger stories right now... but our new divergence tracker shows this govt is (surprisingly) doing a better job than the Cons of diverging from EU rules (because its plans are less extreme). But it also demonstrates how slim the regulatory "benefits of Brexit" are in reality.

⏰ SAVE THE DATE ⏰ This January marks 6 years since the UK's departure from the EU To discuss the year ahead in UK-EU relations, join @anandmenon.bsky.social, @jreland.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & Sir Ivan Rogers 📆 Fri 30 Jan, 1pm GMT 💻 Online ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

My assessment of Starmer's latest EU gambit. His rhetoric on "alignment" may be getting bolder but the trade-offs remain the same. The UK will not get much closer alignment with the single market unless it accepts free movement + budget contributions. ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...

"But a customs union is far from being a silver bullet for the UK’s economic woes, and it does have some potential downsides." ✍️As debates about the UK entering into a customs union with the EU resurface, Joël Reland looks at what this would mean https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs-union-worth-it/

My take on the customs union debate: ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs...

"But any revival of the multilateral order cannot mean a return to the status quo ante." ✍️ Ahead of our report on the crisis in multilateralism and what the UK and EU can do, @jreland.bsky.social reflects on some of the key challenges ⏲️ Full report out tomorrow ukandeu.ac.uk/the-crisis-o...

Key points re customs union: - The UK cannot join *the* customs union. It would need to negotiate a new bilateral deal. - It would get rid of some, but not all, of the trade admin Brexit caused. - UK effectively loses control of its 'independent trade policy' ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy? This summary of the new NBER working paper argues that "there is compelling evidence that Brexit has indeed had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity." Read in full👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impa...

Interesting piece - regulatory divergence is also an issue within the EU. Though I think it's striking that - contra to all the current calls to slash red-tape - the logical way out of the problem is *more* EU legislation to harmonise standards giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Eh?? A customs union would impose constraints on sovereignty (mostly around trade policy) but not on planning regs... If this info has been briefed by pro-CU figures then I don't hold much hope for their efforts. I recommend our explainer instead: ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

And why does he think the opposite happened? More red tape is the logical consequence of de-integrating from your largest trading market. More complicated to import and export. Only the biggest firms can afford to bear those costs.

I have a new blog post out with The UK In A Changing Europe on how lower migration will be bad for the UK economy: ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

Yesterday Nigel Farage argued that the UK has failed to grasp Brexit opportunities to deregulate, which his 'pro-business' government would deliver. I've got a piece in the Independent arguing why that is a misreading both of Brexit history and economics. www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexi...

Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K. This will have significant consequences, both economic and political. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

My take on the latest strange iteration in UK Brexit policy. We now have a government which openly laments the economic costs of Brexit, but rules out most of the options for dealing with it ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

"What voluntary alignment does mean is a clunky process of copying and pasting new EU regulations onto the UK statute book for limited economic gain. It is a high-effort, low-reward strategy." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social reflects on Labour's Brexit trap ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

Our new divergence is tracker out: auditing the extent to which UK/EU rules and regs have aligned/diverged since June. It highlights the increasingly awkward position which the UK occupies: of wanting to act like the EU on most regulatory issues, but without being part of the club.

After years of making the running on immigration, Farage may this week have handed the initiative back to his opponents'. @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the unpopularity of Reform's proposals on ILR ukandeu.ac.uk/reforms-radi...

Interesting piece on the success of the Social Democratic government in Spain and the lessons for Labour. The penultimate paragraph was particularly striking renewal.org.uk/articles/dar...

One for the nerds here... New briefing on the key issues to resolve in the UK-EU ETS negotiations. And for the slightly less nerdy, here's a blog on why the broader set of negotiations could prove tricky ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-eu-negoti...

Strong stuff - lays out the political and historical reasons why the ECHR is so integral to the peace settlement in Northern Ireland, and why a 'British Bill of Rights' could never occupy the same role

This explainer by @joellegrogan.bsky.social and @alicedonald.bsky.social looks at the relationship between the Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement and the ECHR To understand what role the ECHR plays and what UK withdrawal would mean for Northern Ireland, read this 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/t...

Very underwhelming FAC session on the UK-EU reset - which felt like it was stuck in 2024 with same old stuff about fish, touring artists and sovereignty but almost no detailed interrogation of ETS/SPS/energy talks or wider global challenges. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

"One of his revealed flaws in his personnel appointments is that he seems to prefer appointing people whose attitude or background he likes, rather than look at whether they are equipped to do the job." @jillongovt.bsky.social reflects on why Starmer struggles to get the machinery of govt. going

Timely analysis from UKICE (@cbarnard.bsky.social) as per

‼️ Don't miss our panel on the negotiations to come between the UK and EU on the policy areas outlined at the summit W/ @anandmenon.bsky.social, @cbarnard.bsky.social, @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & @jreland.bsky.social 💻 Online, Weds 10 Sept ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

📣 NEW EVENT 📣 Join us and @resfoundation.bsky.social as we launch the latest edition of our Policy Landscape report with expert analysis of the biggest public policy challenges facing the UK 📅 Tues 2 Sept, 9:30am 📍In-person (London) & online Sign up 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/hot-t...

In Brussels in September? Come along! ukandeu.ac.uk/events/the-f...

“Man-made famine is not something that I’ve seen in my lifetime." - Martin Griffiths, UN’s former humanitarian chief. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

encompass-europe.com/comment/the-... @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social

Our director @anandmenon.bsky.social on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social introducing the latest edition of our UK-EU Divergence Tracker The report by @jreland.bsky.social finds that there is already more UK alignment with the EU than is generally recognised Find out more 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/uk-e...

"And in the ultimate of ironies, the only place which hasn’t taken back control following Brexit is the House of Commons itself." @stellacreasy.bsky.social on the need to address Parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s Brexit deal. ukandeu.ac.uk/how-parliame...

New blog summing up the findings of the divergence tracker ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-eu-relati... "On the vast majority of issues, the UK and EU are [now] partners before they are competitors... the Brexit imperative for the UK to demonstrate its regulatory independence... appears dead in the water."

After a brief, funding uncertainty-induced hiatus, the latest divergence tracker is out. Hopefully it has been worth the wait, as it finds evidence that the UK’s realignment towards the EU is going further than many assume. "Alignment by stealth", if you will. Here are the key points...