My assessment of Starmer's latest EU gambit. His rhetoric on "alignment" may be getting bolder but the trade-offs remain the same. The UK will not get much closer alignment with the single market unless it accepts free movement + budget contributions. ukandeu.ac.uk/new-year-sam...

"But a customs union is far from being a silver bullet for the UK’s economic woes, and it does have some potential downsides." ✍️As debates about the UK entering into a customs union with the EU resurface, Joël Reland looks at what this would mean https://ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs-union-worth-it/

My take on the customs union debate: ukandeu.ac.uk/is-a-customs...

"But any revival of the multilateral order cannot mean a return to the status quo ante." ✍️ Ahead of our report on the crisis in multilateralism and what the UK and EU can do, @jreland.bsky.social reflects on some of the key challenges ⏲️ Full report out tomorrow ukandeu.ac.uk/the-crisis-o...

Key points re customs union: - The UK cannot join *the* customs union. It would need to negotiate a new bilateral deal. - It would get rid of some, but not all, of the trade admin Brexit caused. - UK effectively loses control of its 'independent trade policy' ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

What impact has Brexit had on the UK economy? This summary of the new NBER working paper argues that "there is compelling evidence that Brexit has indeed had a large and persistent negative impact on GDP, output and productivity." Read in full👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/brexits-impa...

Interesting piece - regulatory divergence is also an issue within the EU. Though I think it's striking that - contra to all the current calls to slash red-tape - the logical way out of the problem is *more* EU legislation to harmonise standards giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Eh?? A customs union would impose constraints on sovereignty (mostly around trade policy) but not on planning regs... If this info has been briefed by pro-CU figures then I don't hold much hope for their efforts. I recommend our explainer instead: ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

And why does he think the opposite happened? More red tape is the logical consequence of de-integrating from your largest trading market. More complicated to import and export. Only the biggest firms can afford to bear those costs.

I have a new blog post out with The UK In A Changing Europe on how lower migration will be bad for the UK economy: ukandeu.ac.uk/lower-migrat...

Yesterday Nigel Farage argued that the UK has failed to grasp Brexit opportunities to deregulate, which his 'pro-business' government would deliver. I've got a piece in the Independent arguing why that is a misreading both of Brexit history and economics. www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexi...

Happy, alongside @emiliabelknap.bsky.social, to make my debut contribution with the fantastic folks at @ukandeu.bsky.social Emilia & I use data from @britishelectionstudy.com to correct the atomistic fallacy in people's understanding the Reform UK gender gap ukandeu.ac.uk/most-british...

Net migration to the UK is falling rapidly. But how far will it fall? A new, detailed estimate by @jamesbowes01.bsky.social projects net migration in 2026 will be 70K to 170K. This will have significant consequences, both economic and political. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-coming-c...

My take on the latest strange iteration in UK Brexit policy. We now have a government which openly laments the economic costs of Brexit, but rules out most of the options for dealing with it ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

"What voluntary alignment does mean is a clunky process of copying and pasting new EU regulations onto the UK statute book for limited economic gain. It is a high-effort, low-reward strategy." ✍️ @jreland.bsky.social reflects on Labour's Brexit trap ukandeu.ac.uk/labours-brex...

Our new divergence is tracker out: auditing the extent to which UK/EU rules and regs have aligned/diverged since June. It highlights the increasingly awkward position which the UK occupies: of wanting to act like the EU on most regulatory issues, but without being part of the club.

After years of making the running on immigration, Farage may this week have handed the initiative back to his opponents'. @robfordmancs.bsky.social for @ukandeu.bsky.social on the unpopularity of Reform's proposals on ILR ukandeu.ac.uk/reforms-radi...

Interesting piece on the success of the Social Democratic government in Spain and the lessons for Labour. The penultimate paragraph was particularly striking renewal.org.uk/articles/dar...

One for the nerds here... New briefing on the key issues to resolve in the UK-EU ETS negotiations. And for the slightly less nerdy, here's a blog on why the broader set of negotiations could prove tricky ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-eu-negoti...

Strong stuff - lays out the political and historical reasons why the ECHR is so integral to the peace settlement in Northern Ireland, and why a 'British Bill of Rights' could never occupy the same role

This explainer by @joellegrogan.bsky.social and @alicedonald.bsky.social looks at the relationship between the Belfast/ Good Friday Agreement and the ECHR To understand what role the ECHR plays and what UK withdrawal would mean for Northern Ireland, read this 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/t...

Very underwhelming FAC session on the UK-EU reset - which felt like it was stuck in 2024 with same old stuff about fish, touring artists and sovereignty but almost no detailed interrogation of ETS/SPS/energy talks or wider global challenges. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

IT'S OUT! @ukandeu.bsky.social brand new survey of the policy challenges confronting the UK, done in partnership with the wonderful @resfoundation.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/poli... 1/???

"One of his revealed flaws in his personnel appointments is that he seems to prefer appointing people whose attitude or background he likes, rather than look at whether they are equipped to do the job." @jillongovt.bsky.social reflects on why Starmer struggles to get the machinery of govt. going

Timely analysis from UKICE (@cbarnard.bsky.social) as per

‼️ Don't miss our panel on the negotiations to come between the UK and EU on the policy areas outlined at the summit W/ @anandmenon.bsky.social, @cbarnard.bsky.social, @jillongovt.bsky.social, @jannikewachowiak.bsky.social & @jreland.bsky.social 💻 Online, Weds 10 Sept ukandeu.ac.uk/events/ukice...

📣 NEW EVENT 📣 Join us and @resfoundation.bsky.social as we launch the latest edition of our Policy Landscape report with expert analysis of the biggest public policy challenges facing the UK 📅 Tues 2 Sept, 9:30am 📍In-person (London) & online Sign up 👇 www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/hot-t...

In Brussels in September? Come along! ukandeu.ac.uk/events/the-f...

“Man-made famine is not something that I’ve seen in my lifetime." - Martin Griffiths, UN’s former humanitarian chief. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

encompass-europe.com/comment/the-... @jreland.bsky.social @ukandeu.bsky.social

Our director @anandmenon.bsky.social on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social introducing the latest edition of our UK-EU Divergence Tracker The report by @jreland.bsky.social finds that there is already more UK alignment with the EU than is generally recognised Find out more 👇 ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/uk-e...

"And in the ultimate of ironies, the only place which hasn’t taken back control following Brexit is the House of Commons itself." @stellacreasy.bsky.social on the need to address Parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s Brexit deal. ukandeu.ac.uk/how-parliame...

New blog summing up the findings of the divergence tracker ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-eu-relati... "On the vast majority of issues, the UK and EU are [now] partners before they are competitors... the Brexit imperative for the UK to demonstrate its regulatory independence... appears dead in the water."

After a brief, funding uncertainty-induced hiatus, the latest divergence tracker is out. Hopefully it has been worth the wait, as it finds evidence that the UK’s realignment towards the EU is going further than many assume. "Alignment by stealth", if you will. Here are the key points...

A very powerful essay by Holocaust scholar Omer Bartov, arguing that: a) Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, and b) denying this threatens to "undermine everything that Holocaust scholarship and commemoration have stood for." Do read the whole thing www.nytimes.com/2025/07/15/o...

On the 9th anniversary of the EU referendum, we are now in a new era of more rational, less ideological UK Policy towards the EU. But I argue that this brings new challenges - around how to deliver closer alignment. Govt faces a choice between two paths: 'replication' and 'integration'

Not the most discussed element of the summit but I think the commitment on UK participation in the internal energy market is v significant. Unambiguous cherry picking which shows both UK willingness to reintegrate into single market and EU willingness to be flexible about it.

A quick run-down of what's been announced today Almost all of it still to happen PDF with clicky links: bit.ly/UshGraphic140 @ukandeu.bsky.social @anandmenon.bsky.social @cleodavies.bsky.social @davidheniguk.bsky.social @nvondarza.bsky.social

Reminder that the level of EU access to UK fishing waters, now being called an act of capitulation, will remain exactly the same as under the terms negotiated by Boris Johnson ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/e...

Following on from yesterday's report, here's a short blog summing up the key findings about the regulatory challenges facing the new government. In short: lots of ambition, but a potential conflict of both purpose and resource. ukandeu.ac.uk/the-uks-regu...

"This could mean that the UK is unable to develop more liberal rules on GE goods until the EU has also done so – and that the substance of the UK’s rules must match that of the EU’s." Find out more about the impact of an 'SPS' deal between 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 on gene editing rules ukandeu.ac.uk/the-facts/ge...

Shout out to our new social media officer @anandmenon.bsky.social for his excellent filming work

OUT NOW! The new report by @jreland.bsky.social on regulation in the UK after Brexit. media.ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/u... 1/9

We've got a new report out today on 'Regulating after Brexit'. In part, it is a culmination of four years of my work tracking UK-EU regulatory divergence, but it also looks to the regulatory future. Here are a few highlights... ukandeu.ac.uk/reports/regu...

A piece from me arguing that there are signs that the UK-EU summit may be a rare example of politicians under-promising and over-delivering, and examining why the UK suddenly seems more enthusiastic about improving EU trade.

We have a ruling on sand eels! The core EU claim (UK ban was unscientific and discriminatory) has been dismissed. But the UK made procedural errors which must be rectified. Ruling does not specify what the UK must do to redress this. But full overturn seems unlikely. www.gov.uk/government/n...

On how the UK-EU relationship may increasingly look Swiss-style, @jreland.bsky.social is right. Some of us were discussing this in 2016. Quite simply there are too many common subjects to be contained in any single structure. ukandeu.ac.uk/switzerland-...

What a time to be alive..... Me for @ukandeu.bsky.social ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-in-a-chan...

With more and more info leaking out about the UK-EU summit on 19 May, I think the relationship is on a path to becoming increasingly 'Swiss'. Read on to find out what that means (and watch out for the full report - on this and much more - next week). ukandeu.ac.uk/switzerland-...

I'll be giving evidence to the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee from around 10, talking all things Windsor Framework and divergence parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...