Quick update as I’ll be doing some major upgrades to my website tonight — the multi-model ensemble for Erin remains closer to Bermuda than the East coast (right), but this obscures a major split between the east leaning GEFS & west leaning EPS (left):

We are still evaluating how the new suite of AI models may compare (e.g., AIFS, Google-DeepMind, Graphcast). Thus far, it looks like the same limitations that apply the ordinary NWP modeling also applies to the new suite of AI modeling.

Now for (2) sharing deterministic model output at long lead times: Forecast skill for individual features meso-to-synoptic scale in size (i.e., #TC) lose predictability fast >5-7 day period. The Environmental Modeling Center has detailed stats that show this rapid skill drop off in all models. 📉

Today marks the start of Hurricane Season; as I’ve said for most of my career, it only takes one storm to have a bad season. People are on edge from last season, so our job is to provide down-to-earth weather forecasting without the hype. Don’t post 10+ day-out forecasts….

Someone commented on my post this morning on FB, saying the 5G phone service was causing Flash Flooding. 🤣🤣🤣🤦‍♂️

Here we go! A+ stunning weather ahead across North Carolina! #ncwx

Severe Weather Update: www.ncwxauthority.com/post/severe-...

Never seen before perspective of a tornado in Arnett, OK by our research drone on May 18th. Watch the full video here on YouTube: youtu.be/NGD2e741Riw

Numerous studies have shown that radiosondes are a critical input to the computer models that help us forecast the weather accurately on an ongoing basis. Plus, they provide forecasters quality insight in and immediately ahead of high-impact events like severe storms and hurricanes.

Bad, bad news: More data is being lost. This is not a good sign heading into Hurricane Season. Weather service offices are severely understaffed and underfunded. Weather data will continue to be degraded across the United States. This is unacceptable. We should be funding more…

Well, look at this: When you push, it happens. Three North Carolina house reps have introduced a bill to fund/improve and modernize the NWS. I pushed for this in DC. @RepDeborahRoss said she would try to work with NC representatives on finding a bill. I hope this bill advances.

The rest of the world will band together, and the US will be on its own. Watch it.

I did it; I made a YouTube channel, give it a follow, and check out my first video covering the Severe Weather Threat today. #ncwx youtu.be/jQZFubfjwCc?...

There is the potential for strong to severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening across NC. It is a rather complicated setup with a high bust potential; read more of my thoughts about the potential threat here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx

2 additional radiosonde sites are temporarily suspending launches, while 6 others are reducing to one launch a day. 14 out of 83 sites now have partial or no launches. The more radiosondes are reduced or suspended, the more noticeable the forecast skill reduction becomes.

Up-to-date NWS upper air network map

It's absolutely insane. More National Weather Service offices are suspending or limiting weather balloon launching due to staffing cuts. This could impact weather modeling, which we don’t need. In the weather world, we need more data, not less.

Last week, some pictures came to me from Western North Carolina. Helene debris still contains a lot of lost memories. Social media was able to bring a lot of them back to their owners. Special thanks to Jack Kendrick and @ethangclark02.bsky.social for making it happen. youtu.be/_JPZU3NZe-c?...

A very unfortunate tornado outbreak is currently ongoing in Dixie. A very pronounced ZDR arch, velocity, and debris ball are evident on reflectivity. Very likely a violent tornado ongoing. #wxsky

And tonight, tomorrow, and every day is why we need NOAA/NWS. Kudos to these amazing meteorologists who work around the clock while short-staffed for the “protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. “

Strong to Severe Storms are possible Saturday night west and Sunday elsewhere across the state. Severe Weather outbreak expected across the Deep South too. My complete write up here. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-... #ncwx

A tornado outbreak - Level 5-High risk is expected tomorrow (Saturday March 15) across parts of MS/AL. Strong to violent, long-track tornadoes will be possible, in addition to significant damaging gusts and large hail. Intense storms are possible across the broader region from LA to TN to GA.

Severe weather outlook sequence for tomorrow's (March 15, 2025) tornado/severe weather outbreak. The potential for severe weather was first mentioned in the outlook text discussion starting 8 days in advance, with the area being delineated in the outlook 7 days in advance.

Total Lunar Eclipse Tonight: If you're a big fan of cool space things, tonight is your night. A Total Lunar Eclipse will occur tonight and be visible across North Carolina and most of North America. 1/2 #ncwx

Here comes spring: Mother Nature is ready to start spring early. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s for the rest of the week. Above-average temperatures are expected all week. Spring fever will be in full swing by the end of the week; it should be a very nice week. Enjoy! -Ethan #ncwx

For all the new people on here!!

Twitter has crashed just like the owners stock has crashed 🤣🤣

Twitter/X is down and it is so funny

In case you’re jumping back over from that other app, here’s a great place to start when it comes to N.C. State and NC peeps. Let me know if there’s anyone I need to add!!

Strong to severe storms are likely on Wednesday across parts of the state; here’s my full update below. www.ncwxauthority.com/post/severe-... #ncwx

I’ve been very outspoken about the NWS/NOAA cuts because this matter deeply affects me, my career weather page, and my friends and colleagues, and it is not something I support. Weather should be nonpartisan. We should focus on improving and finding new ways to protect lives.

Strong to severe storms are possible on Wednesday across North Carolina; here’s my full write-up regarding the situation below. #ncwx www.ncwxauthority.com/post/strong-...

If one thing @ethangclark02.bsky.social highlighted about his visit to the U.S. Capitol last week, it's that our reps in *both parties* aren't understanding the consequences of these cuts to NOAA/NWS. REACH OUT TO YOUR REPS. I'm working on it myself.

That little black spec on the right hand side of this infographic is the total budget of the NWS. How is eliminating positions that exponentially increase economic dividends through enhancing commerce and mitigating/preventing disasters saving money or eliminating waste/fraud?

Check out the external affairs page at NOAA right now. That's right. Everyone at NOAA external affairs was fired. www.noaa.gov/external-aff...

It’s been hard to come up with words regarding the situation at NWS/NOAA the last few days. Roughly 1k meteorologists have been fired, and this will have profound impacts. I just got back from two days in DC fighting for NOAA/NWS. I met with over 12 lawmakers. I am very mad.

I am back at the US Capitol meeting with lawmakers from both sides of the aisle despite the news of the firings of 100s of meteorologists from the National Weather Service and NOAA. I’m going to continue to fight for our close-knit weather community. Everything NWS does matter!

Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles. My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.

A common misconception that many folks outside of NWS don't know - "probationary" in the NWS can simply mean you've been in your current position for less than a year. Many people fired today received excellent performance reviews & worked at the NWS as federal employees or contractors for years.

Thinking of the many hard-working and skilled federal employees fired today from the NWS. Your contributions over the years have helped the NWS and its ability to fulfill its mission of protecting life & property. This is a loss for the NWS and for the nation.

I also, again, can't stress enough that we in North Carolina could not have a better advocate on this subject than @ethangclark02.bsky.social. do whatever you can to support what he's doing

The hammer fell on NOAA/NWS this afternoon. 😭💔 There were no exceptions. All probationary employees.

NWS has fired meteorologists as a direct result of upper-level heads telling them to do so. Let me be clear, people will die because of this. Absolutely insane.. I have no words for it. I’ve spent all day I mean all day in meetings with both republicans and democrats fighting.

Ethan's page is by far the most popular in North Carolina with over 700,000 followers. Everyone has heard of him. I'm proud of Ethan for using his page to raise an awareness about what's happening with NOAA/NWS.

Update: I just got done meeting with SenTedBuddNC. He is on the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. He was unaware of the potential cuts to NOAA/NWS. He told me he would work with me to fight for the NWS and NOAA. He asked about my weather page etc #ncpol

The work Ethan is doing to support/inform communities in North Carolina about weather events is so important, and literally saved lives during Hurricane Helene. We couldn't ask for a better advocate on this issue.

On the way to the US Capitol to meet with lawmakers, it's time to fight for NWS/NOAA and science! 👏🏻 #ncpol #ncwx

Letter to Thom Tillis. From the founder of the North Carolina Weather Authority @ncweatherauthority.bsky.social. Thanks, Ethan! #NOAA #ncpol