Thinking about how this might go Listener: My chains aren't converging Andrew: Your model is bad Aki: Your parameterization is bad Richard: The Buddha teaches us that numerical integration is suffering

The correct attitude re: surveying AI to find out what humans think is that a lot of the time you can't even find out what humans think by surveying humans

Today is the final day in the stay of the mifepristone case. 🚨 Medication abortion is NOT going away. We know misoprostol is a safe and effective medication abortion option. ➡️ Our evidence of US-based use doi.org/10.1363/psrh... ➡️ NEJM Review of studies evidence.nejm.org/doi/full/10....

This is such a great and clear thread (and also, we *always* are making choices about what dynamics we are attempting to show when we chart things, and there usually isn’t one right answer - which is why it’s great when we can show the same data in a bunch of different ways).

Really useful thread from one of my favorite researchers! And if you haven’t checked out her recent JAMA article, you should! jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Getting the chance to be on @outlawedthepodcast.bsky.social to talk about our new estimates with two incredibly smart and committed abortion providers was so great (and not only because they let me talk a little bit about our methodology!)

In this @us.theconversation.com op-ed, @danamartha.bsky.social (@wisccore.bsky.social) and @lauralindberg.bsky.social (@rutgerssph.bsky.social) break down their research on how teens are accessing abortion pills via telehealth, why it matters, and what further research is needed. Read their piece:

Meanwhile I continue to majorly regret that I didn’t take “I Hope You Like Matrices” in college, and instead had to discover those joys on my own later in life

Important new data insights from @imaddowzimet.bsky.social @kimyaf.bsky.social @guttmacher.org Telehealth remains essential With what seems to be fewer people traveling to abortion supportive states for care, and more folks accessing abortion via telehealth www.guttmacher.org/report/full-...

Was really happy to get the chance to talk to NPR about our new report, which documented shifts in how residents of states with total abortion bans are accessing care www.npr.org/2026/03/24/n...

I laughed at this comic (and then realized I had already written an email this morning that had a nested set of three parentheticals (of course with matching closing parentheses (otherwise it would be unbalanced))).

Nothing was more eye opening to me as a researcher than being sampled for a large, clearly well funded study and then being administered a close to *4 hour* survey.

Problem about the loneliness epidemic is, it's everywhere except in representative survey data. Let's look at where the claim comes from. 1/

Very excited that @lauralindberg.bsky.social and I just posted a preprint of a paper that we've been working on for a while, looking at the (lack of) comparability of the most recent NSFG with prior waves of data. Feedback extremely welcome! osf.io/preprints/so...

🚨Our new paper in @jamahealthforum.com Curious about how parental involvement laws and state abortion bans shape access for teens? We found that teens living in the *most* stringent policy contexts are ordering abortion pills online at higher rates than their peers in less restrictive states

Roses are pink And so are crassula perforata

Roses are red Heliamphora like fruit flies

Two statisticians like to initialize their random number generators differently set.seed(ed) Rivalry

We just released the 2025 Communities Need Clinics report. Findings show once again how essential indie abortion clinics are to access in the U.S. #IndiesProvide the majority of abortions & operate the most clinics in states w/ the harshest restrictions. They also provide most later abortion care.

According to #WeCount results from last year, 1 out of 4 abortions was provided via telehealth. “All of this legislation will never take away from the fact that women will continue to need abortion care, and continue to get abortion care.” - @ushma.bsky.social

This is such a great guide, with such clear examples

Just published w/ my @guttmacher.org colleagues: People are deeply confused about EC: how it works, when pregnancy starts, and whether EC is “an abortion.” That fog isn’t accidental; it fuels stigma and restrictions. Knowledge matters for autonomy + access. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Shield laws have become a lifeline for abortion patients and providers in the US post-Dobbs, which is precisely why conservative policymakers are turning to the courts, Congress, and state legislatures to attack this critical method of care. 🧵 www.guttmacher.org/2025/09/atta...

Proud to have signed on to this letter, along with many other colleagues in the field (including @guttmacher.org researchers @cbpolis.bsky.social , @megankavanaugh.bsky.social, Kathryn Kost, Rachel Jones, Ann Moore and Beth Sully)

Check out our new brief @ccfamilies.bsky.social on the limitations of population projections for understanding future fertility patterns. The growing public discourse on declining fertility needs demographers voices and expertise, while recognizing the limits of our methods.

Are we doomed to a demographic destiny of decline because ladies aren't having babies? No. We've been here before. It turns out that population projections only describe one of many possible futures. Our actual future is still to be written.

Feeling alarmed over dire long-term population projections that suggest humanity will disappear? Don't be! Demographers generally aren't worried, and you shouldn't be either. @amandajean.bsky.social explains why in this great @ccfamilies.bsky.social brief. sites.utexas.edu/contemporary...

Really enjoyed talking to Lizzy McNeill on the BBC More or Less podcast about trends in abortion provision post Dobbs (along with @ushma.bsky.social !) podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a...

Want to know why demographers aren't panicking over low birth rates? @lesja.bsky.social, @shelleydclark.bsky.social, & I have a new piece in @theconversation.com explaining the faulty logic that underlies the low birth rate-induced population panic than fuels the pronatalism movement. 1/n

This is such a great thoughtful and nuanced post by @rmcelreath.bsky.social on open science/computational reproducibility - especially on the need to make research and code *intelligible*, not just transparent. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...

Journalists often ask for my thoughts on the contemporary US pronatalist movement. My assessment is based on my expertise and training as a social demographer, and my own research on childbearing behaviors at the individual and aggregate levels. Strap in, b/c I've got a lot to say. 1/

As mifepristone continues to be threatened (read: RFK Jr's baseless/insane claims about safety) more folks are considering the role of misoprostol-only medication abortion regimens in the US Well happy Monday folks because I have *two* new studies out for you: (1/4)

Being a social scientist means holding two truths at once: 1. This is all deeply complicated 2. I have to submit something by Tuesday

New: SCOTUS *allows* states to defund Planned Parenthood, holding that Medicaid does not give patients a right to obtain care from its providers. Back in April Terri-Ann and I wrote about the public health implications of this ruling - and trust us…they are major thehill.com/opinion/5235...

More than 150,000 people traveled out of state to get an abortion last year, nearly one-fifth of whom coming from Texas alone — and new numbers paint a picture of how far they went to receive care. It’s been three years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. wapo.st/3TCXhxF

Everyone deserves access to abortion care in their communities via their preferred method, whether that is an in clinic procedure, via telemedicine, or abortion pills sourced form a community network. Any restrictions that limit people's choices are unjust. Full stop.

Just looking at the map (article is paywalled, unfortunately): God bless Carbondale, and all of southern Illinois

And as #WeCount and others have documented - the increased availability of telehealth through shield law providers is likely playing a big role here as well: helping many people access abortion care who would have otherwise traveled very far distances or not been able to access care at all.

Three years post Dobbs, enormously high numbers of people are still crossing state lines to access abortion care: the Monthly Provision Study just released new data on where they are coming from and where they are going. www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/h...

@doctorshelleysella.bsky.social's book is probably one of the best things I've read in the past decade.

I saw my city council member biking across the bridge in the other direction from me on my way back from work today and I truly have never been so excited by a celebrity sighting

The Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) Program was central in improving the evidence base for health policies and interventions, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central & Southern Asia - figure by @aasli.bsky.social. Our preprint on the termination of the DHS Program: osf.io/preprints/so...

Really useful primer, and also includes this major contribution to the literature

Why don’t young people use prescription contraception? Our new national MyVoice study asked 14–24-year-olds directly. The top 3 reasons: 🔸 Concern about side effects 🔸 Fear of judgment 🔸 Difficulty accessing care www.jpagonline.org/article/S108...

I talked with @propublica.org while I was at #PAA2025 about attacks on federal data and said "Burying your head in the sand is not going to be a way to keep the country healthy." www.propublica.org/article/trum...

Also: I also want to shout out our fielding team, who (among many other things) do all of the data collection for the study -- really excellent, careful, data collection is one of those aspects of research that is often underemphasized, and I'm incredibly lucky to work with such a great team.

Yesterday, we released new estimates (for 2024) of the number of people obtaining abortions in states without total bans & the number of people traveling across state lines to access care www.guttmacher.org/report/stabi...

In this new study, we estimate that >2/3 of girls ages 13-17 live in states with abortion bans, restrictive gestational limits or parental involvement requirements. That's 7 million teens unable to control their lives and their futures jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

The effects of abortion bans vary tremendously across counties and demographic groups. New @nber.org working paper with Daniel Dench and @mayrapinedat.bsky.social. [1/10] www.nber.org/papers/w33548

This is such a great paper on such an important topic - in the context of missing data and huge drops in response rates; we can’t just assume that weights will rescue us.