The Nobel Prize committee should announce the World Cup winner tomorrow

This COP has been deeply disappointing. It claimed to be a COP of action, but all comments on fossil fuels, and even most comments on deforestation that this COP was supposed to highlight, have been removed from the final text. Being literally on fire at one point was a fitting metaphor.

Published today in Earth System Science Data: The Global Carbon Budget 2025 essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

The IEA's first net zero scenario (NZE), published in 2021, showed emissions peaking immediately and falling to net zero by 2050. Today they published an update. Although we are behind on most things, solar and wind deployment moved EVEN FASTER than the first NZE suggested. A little ray of hope.

🚨🚨🚨 NEW REPORT ALERT 🚨🚨🚨 @climateanalytics.org has a new report out today that I’m really excited about. It’s all about 1.5ºC... ▶️ Is overshooting 1.5ºC inevitable? ▶️ Can we still get temperatures back below 1.5ºC? ▶️ If so, how? If you’re interested in our findings, buckle up for a mega thread...

Today is the official launch of this year's @unep.org #EmissionsGap report. It's title says it all OFF TARGET that's true for progress, NDCs and implementation

Something that's worth flagging about this report is the subtle pivot from "current policy" being the worst-case scenario to including discussions of backsliding. Most calculations presented include the USA meeting its new-but-Biden-era NDC commitments, which will formally elapse in Jan.

NEW: The latest climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have driven only a slight fall in predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century. The UN Emissions Gap Report finds that implementing current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, down from 3.1°C. 🧵

To quote my friend @drkatemarvel.bsky.social, climate change won't make humanity extinct but we can do better than "not extinct". Raise your standards people!

I can think of at least seven ways fossil fuel producers could wiggle out of this, but still: holy shit this is huge.

Recommended listen: The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, in partnership with Planet B Productions, has released a four-part podcast series exploring what will happen if global warming exceeds 1.5C.

Our paper is out today in @nature.com where we assess a Prudent Planetary Limit for Geologic Carbon Storage: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Here is a reminder that already last year 44 experts directed a powerful warning to policy makers about the risk of #AMOC shutdown. What more can we do to get heard? It’s like the saying that every disaster movie starts with scientists warning and being ignored.

One of the strongest, clearest increases in likelihood & intensity, attributable to climate change, I've seen in a complex index like fire weather - the more intense & frequent events in Greece & Türkiye are already outpacing efforts to adapt. www.worldweatherattribution.org/weather-cond...

NEW – Factcheck: Trump’s climate report includes more than 100 false or misleading claims | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @leohickman.carbonbrief.org @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org @tomoprater.carbonbrief.org Read here: buff.ly/AvcB7Aw

Based on fossil fuel growth rates from the IEA Coal Mid-Year Update, July Oil Market Report, & Gas Market Report Q3, fossil CO2 emissions would grow around 0.8% in 2025, reaching another record high... We are only half way through the year, but don't build too much expectation for peak emissions.

10/ 🔥Judge Iwasawa Yuji quotes straight from the IPCC: "Warming of 1.5°C is not considered 'safe' for most nations, communities, ecosystems and sectors, and poses significant risks to natural and human systems." - this is a very strong basis for the Court's legal conclusions!

⚠️Countries are taking large risks by relying so heavily on carbon dioxide removal to meet their climate goals. Combined with inadequate near-term reductions, countries are potentially jeopardizing the Paris climate targets due to CDR, according to new research 🧵

💨The analysis, co-authored by Imperial scientists @rubenpruetz.bsky.social & @joerirogelj.bsky.social, finds substantial ambiguities in states' plans, with a heavy reliance and dependence on novel and conventional carbon dioxide removal, with its associated risks.

We need CDR. 🧩 But the ambiguity & lack of transparency regarding #CDR in states‘ climate plans jeopardize the PA. ❌ We unpack this issue by reviewing strategies of 70+ states concerning their CDR plans. 📑 👇 More in the thread by lead author Rupert Stuart-Smith & our study doi.org/10.1080/1469...

New research on limits to CO2 removal (CDR). CDR is key to our ambition to stop adding climate pollution to the atmosphere. Because it's uncertain how much will be delivered and it clearly comes with risks of social & environmental side-effects, legal issues arise. This paper provides an overview. 👇

Our new article is available open access here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... @smithschool.ox.ac.uk @oxfordgeography.bsky.social @oxfordlawfac.bsky.social @pik-potsdam.bsky.social @granthamicl.bsky.social

Legal analysis, in conjunction with the risks associated with CDR-dependent targets assessed here, could clarify states’ mitigation obligations under international law and facilitate progression past a risk-blind and indiscriminate use of scientific pathways in assessing states’ targets. More soon!

That previous work was published in @science.org and can be found here: www.science.org/doi/full/10....

To minimise risks associated with reliance on CO2 removal, states should prioritise pathways that minimise overshoot and dependence on removals to reach net-zero. Risks associated with high CDR dependence might render state action inconsistent with norms and principles of international law.

-- Reliance on international cooperation to deliver CO2 removal (e.g. via carbon trading mechanisms) is also common in states' plans and amplifies these risks. -- Non-delivery of planned CO2 removal would raise global temperatures further, worsening the impacts of climate change.

-- There is pervasive lack of transparency and ambiguities in states' international reporting, with respect to how states intend to meet their climate targets. -- However, dependence on high levels of CO2 removal is widespread and substantial risks to delivery of planned CO2 removal exist.

-- Inadequate near-term emission reductions are common, jeopardise the Paris climate targets and create substantial long-term dependence on CO2 removal to eliminate a temperature overshoot, with its associated risks.

🚨 Out now in @climate-policy.bsky.social: New research with @thomwetzer.bsky.social @rubenpruetz.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social Lavanya Rajamani, Marianne Wood and Ewan White: States are depending heavily on CO2 removal to meet climate targets, risking the Paris Agreement goal.

#coal is on the way out and #solar is soaring, but wind is lagging behind. Germany needs to 🎯 increase its target to Paris-compatibility 🎯 elevate climate policy to top of agenda 🎯 phase out fossil gas (not expand!) 🎯 focus on enabling a socially just transition Analysis ➡️ bit.ly/CAT_GER

Its plans for energy, transport & buildings sectors are concerning, as is the intention to use #Article6 carbon credits. It wants to: ❌ build new fossil gas power plants, locking in emissions ❌ retract EV sales target & weaken compliance on EU emissions standards ❌ increase aviation subsidies

Supplying 60% of electricity, renewables expansion strong compared to other sectors & countries. Germany has a well-developed climate policy framework & commitment to net zero by 2045, but target still not 1.5˚C compatible and new govt has no plans to increase action. 🔗 bit.ly/CAT_GER_poli...

COUNTRY ANALYSIS: #Germany’s new govt coalition contract undermines climate policies, which will not meet the legally binding national climate targets under the Climate Change Act. Our projections see 2030 emissions higher than our previous update. Rating remains "Insufficient" ➡️ bit.ly/CAT_GER

Ein ausführliches Interview mit Fredi Otto und mir: was kommt beim Klima auf uns zu? Wie wird die Welt für unsere Kinder aussehen, wenn wir einfach so weitermachen wie bisher? www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art...

An der Klimareferenzstation auf dem Telegrafenberg in Potsdam fiel im 1. Halbjahr 2025 so wenig Niederschlag wie noch nie seit Messbeginn 1893 – nur 146,8 mm. Im langjährigen Durchschnitt fallen an diesem Ort im ersten Halbjahr etwa 300 Millimeter. 👉 www.pik-potsdam.de/de/aktuelles...

🚨Excited to share my new paper published in ERL: "An exploration and evaluation framework for climate change mitigation scenarios with varying feasibility and desirability", co-authored with @shivmit.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social tinyurl.com/yh3rspns (1/8)

This makes for a remaining 1.5C carbon budget of 130 GtCO2. But note that depending on how successful or unsuccessful we are in limiting non-CO2 emissions, and particularly methane, this value can easily already be zero. For more information on this see this recent paper: doi.org/10.1038/s432... /7

Headlines on international media report on 3 (or 2) years left before we exhaust the 1.5C carbon budget. How did this year’s IGCC estimate of the remaining carbon budget end up with a 74% reduction compared to the latest @IPCC_CH report? A short deeper dive. /1

New study on linking wealth-based emissions to climate impacts: We find that 2/3 of global warming is attributable to the wealthiest 10% and so are climate extremes. Article: www.nature.com/articles/s41... @iiasa.ac.at, @usyseth.bsky.social 1/

Five years ago today, most historical UK monthly rainfall observations were not available to scientists. But the 66,000 pieces of paper containing the data had been scanned. With covid lockdown approaching we saw an opportunity to transcribe the data. #RainfallRescue began... 🧵

Oh, try this one: doi.org/10.1073/pnas...

Many of us who don’t work on space science directly were inspired to become scientists because of NASA. Also, about 30% of NASA's science budget is for Earth and climate science, and they run one of the global climate models that's used by the IPCC. What happens at NASA will affect all of us.

🚨 Now CCN-official 🚨 Trump issues stop-work-order to NASA chief scientist #KateCalvin, who is also co-chair of the IPCC's working group in charge of the next assessment on climate change mitigation. This is brutal, on so many levels. edition.cnn.com/2025/02/21/c...

Today, @esabcc.bsky.social published its new report ‘Scaling up carbon dioxide removals – Recommendations for navigating opportunities and risks in the #EU’. See all the recommendations and full report: climate-advisory-board.europa.eu/news/new-rep... #ClimateChange #CarbonRemoval #EUClimateAction

🌱Climate change mitigation through plantation-based bioenergy with carbon capture and storage outside agricultural land is strongly limited when considering biosphere integrity and land-system change, according to biogeochemical model analysis. 👉Read more here: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Für die Wähler:innen ist es relevant. Für die künftige Regierung ein Dauerthema. Für die Zukunft Deutschlands existenziell. Und sie stellen im #TVDuell nicht eine einzige Frage zum Klima. Unfassbar.

Today on Volts: @chrislhayes.bsky.social has a new book out on the corrosive effects of the modern attention economy. We dig deep into what attention is, how it works, why it's so easy to steal, where industry is looking for new supplies, & whether democratic deliberation can survive. Great stuff.

In a new paper, we look at how we can allocate the global warming space instead of carbon budgets and translate it to warming-equivalent emissions budgets. Noteworthy, many developed and advanced developing countries have already by far exhausted their fair warming budget. (1/2)

🌳 Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via land sinks is frequently cited in climate mitigation pledges. ↕️However, how much CDR is down to human activity is often unclear. A new paper co-authored by @rubenpruetz.bsky.social & @joerirogelj.bsky.social addresses this problem.

The AR6 Scenarios Database is a vital repository of climate change mitigation pathways. 📊📉 Unfortunately, many #scenarios in this database lack information about the level of carbon dioxide removal via land sinks (Land CDR). This gap makes the assessment of scenario evidence challenging. 🌳🌲 (1/5)