Fuck it, tonight it is the problem with this shutdown from the start was that there was no win condition possible. Like, the idea here was to ask for Obamacare to continue unchanged, ???, Trump literally parties Gatsby style, ???, at no point do you ever get subsidies in a million years. 1/x

Entirely true, btw. Having gotten into this weird no win situation in this exact way, there were probably 20-25 Yes votes and they pretty much negotiated who would take the fall among themselves

the base is going to turn on "Cuck" Schumer very hard but the fact is he had no real win condition at any point during this whole thing (like, really? Trump was gonna let Obamacare subsidies survive??) so... the actual W they did get was an end to rescissions, maybe* *or another shutdown in Jan

mid November now looks pretty much locked in, with the sole remaining variable at whether they can get a guarantee of a vote on the key stuff out of the House

If the sandwich hit, you still acquit

hispanic voters this midterm, at least, will be roughly 20 points more Dem than 2024 as a baseline and could well go much higher

2026 and likely 2028 Dem candidate messaging: abundance as policy, ~metaphoric "GOP delenda est" as praxis

a casual 500 million dollars has been bet on the next mayor of new york city, compared to 300 million on the entire election cycle of 2020

It's always risky to call an election over before it's actually over (ask me how I know), but NYC mayor is extremely over so go ahead and pick up your dollars for 90c. Source: for Cuomo to have a shot the electorate needs to be under 50% Dem today. good luck with that

we're not going to be fine after this administration - lots of things will be rekt - but one thing about fascism is that it requires at least some initial buy-in from the man on the street, and the media caving to Trump are missing just how ugly things will get with an economy taking big hits

please mr president sir don't ever nuke the filibuster and especially don't ever touch the voter ID button. democrats would HATE the voter ID button with the 2025-28 democratic coalition of *checks notes* every woman with a college degree in america

VA polling basically confirms what I was thinking, which is that Jones needs a +10 Spanberger topline to have a real shot but should get almost exactly that number I think he wins every time at +12 and loses every time at +8, so this will be close, but have a big position based squarely on the odds

Predictions: CA Prop 50: D+20 or whatever, don't care. might come in a bit under in an off-year race with preordained results NY: mildly exciting but only if you've bet on Mamdani losing Staten Island NJ: an even more boring D+7 VA: Gov +12, LtGov +8, AG...only tossup of the night

everybody always fights the last war; one of the ways in which this is self evident is that everyone thinks Hispanic and black men are now permanently moving conservative meanwhile, the vibes in their communities are *looks around at tear gas*, so that's probably a generational GOP L

Been a very good last several weeks for short term Polymarket bonds heading into an election, always my favorite thing to do Pretty well positioned, I think, though only spending about half time on it

We’re clearly not going to see any productive negotiations on the shutdown at least until NJ/VA elections, so that’s another 9 days. Really curious to see what the national vibes are after that once it’s clear Dems have electoral momentum just as the GOP did after November 2021.

horseshoe theory undefeated

forgetting the minor nazi whoopsie portion of this race for a moment (because this poll mostly predates it), the fact is that Mills is an ex-governor, pretty popular, and her sole problems are age and decorum. her being down 35 here is a blue tsunami warning for any Dem over 70 or pro-filibuster

I like hanging out in my corner of bsky, because the rest of it is filled with people who looked at the last several sets of Dem primaries and decided that the problem was far too much opposition. oh no, an Old might run vs a 40 year old who looks good on paper that we never heard of 2 weeks ago?

I hope everyone has learned a valuable lesson today about the perils of vibes-based vetting of populist candidates via cliquish social media ingroup signaling

So, Platner: 1A)I think it’s highly likely nobody around him knew it was a Nazi tat; why would they / Croatia lol 1B)the reddit posts are cringe and sometimes bad but not DQing in 2025; 2A)he has an uphill road for the next few months; 2B)Dem primary voters are too enraged to love Mills 1/2

this is certainly a thing that just happened that I hope they cover in law school this year iyam, they can replace con law with it. worthless class anyway

An exclusive analysis of Polymarket data showed that wagers against Trump taking action would've yielded returns similar to the S&P 500 (via Bloomberg Opinion)

had a tiny bet (because most of it didnt fill) from the start on the shutdown lasting some long number, which I sold a few days ago if I were a betting man, I would flip short soon with mid November as the end target

I been robbed. All my arts gone.

first they came for John Bolton, but it turned out that he was doing actual crimes so I simply handed it to them

had a couple of different conversations recently about how weird it is to see prediction markets, a thing I've been active on since 2007, go mainstream like being a gold miner in california since 1840 and all of a sudden the entire universe is trying to sell each other shovels

I barely talk about crypto these days because I'm spending an enormous amount of time on a personal project and basically only do that + Polymarket since May so with that in mind, the wipeout yesterday is another reminder that you -cannot- have your net worth in a casino, no matter how enticing

This man is being Gorilla Channel'd with a rotating selection of AI slop riot porn by several known white supremacists who are secretly running the government.

LLMs asked to use rude voice have a *significantly* higher accuracy rate (84% vs 80%). the reason why is obvious if you think about it: they're trained on the posts of my people, snarky millennial edgelords who came of age during the Posting Wars

The year is 2025. There are three social networks remaining. They are run by Dweeb Lowtax, Tweaker Lowtax, and Girlboss Lowtax. You have to pick at least one.

Re: the shutdown, everyone expected Dems to cave and get yelled at by their fed up voters while their voters themselves want blood. that's exactly why Dems are sticking to it this time, and why the strategy is evolving towards making Rs nuke the filibuster themselves

true story: I own 0 gold and one (1) Rai stone. a minimum of one Rai stone is required to make it

"Voters increasingly blame Democrats for shutdown" Democratic voters: "yes, that's us, we're good with this"

"lying silver-tongued charlatan runs to the US, attempts to reinvent himself, turns out to be pretty good at an important job" this is like one of the foundational American Stories www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/u...

the update to this story is uhh *something* www.nytimes.com/2025/10/05/u...

If OpenAI lights $1 trillion on fire and achieves nothing of technical consequence whatsoever except for the destruction of existing US copyright and IP laws it would likely be the most effective pro-growth intervention in decades and more than easily justify spending that money.

the US media is certainly completely fucked, which is helping the Democrats out quite a bit much like Trump was helped out by not being on social media for two years, the Dems are enormously helped by nobody having to see Chuck Schumer

anyway, just hedging some commodities risk here

I am not concerned about the hegseth speech in a "the military could fire on civilians" way; that is a very long process that's very hard to do what's much easier to do is to hollow it out. we won't have the latest drones or any counter to China because the logistics guys are too busy with pushups

Absolute all-timer sentence in today's @nytimes.com

abundance, the book, is very prescient, came about at the right time, and will be what the Dems want to do in 2029 abundance, the political movement, is far too up its own ass and doesn't make sense as a "platform" - that's a different beast and none of it says anything about the 2028 meta

abundance the hell out of every community board in america

Not watching this but it’ll probably have at least one banger

far and away the most compelling argument for pro-natalist policy is how fucking dysfunctional greying countries are becoming politically. can't cut elderly benefits. can't raise taxes. can't let in workers. no throw only fetch politics until something collapses.

Farage's new proposal is simply "cancel ILR" (green cards), replacing them with renewable temporary visas this is probably where the global far right is going; it will obliterate the economies of the states that fall into this trap, but obv they don't care would reexamine moving to the UK, tbh

Not sure if week 1 or this week was the Jetsiest football ever. Or possibly week 2. Really all three are pretty high up there