One of the keys (perhaps *the* key) to today's election will be whether 5 or 6/7 parties enter the Bundestag. If 5 get in (CDU, SPD, Greens, Linke and AfD), a new Grand Coalition is likely. If 6/7 (FDP and/or BSW) get in, a 3-party deal will be necessary - and things will get messier.

Una de las claves (quizás *la* clave) en las elecciones de hoy será si entran 5 o 6/7 partidos en el Bundestag. Si entran 5 (CDU, SPD, Verdes, Izquierda y AfD), lo probable será una nueva Gran Coalición. Si entran 6/7 (FDP y/o BSW), hará falta un tripartito y todo se complicará.

I agree: this is probably the best (realistic) scenario we can hope for today.

Alemania frente al espejo. La clave estará en que el nuevo gobierno federal, previsiblemente encabezado por Friedrich Merz, logre salir de la crisis estructural que atraviesa el país. Por @guilleiniguez.bsky.social. politicaprosa.com/es/alemania-...

For those of you interested in rule of law backsliding, judicial reforms, and EU competition law, my recently published piece in the CYELS uses this as case study from which to explore the metastatic-like consequences of democratic backsliding. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Del escándalo y el victimismo a convertirse en una fuerza política y electoral respetable para millones de franceses. Escribo en @elpais.com sobre lo que la extrema derecha internacional le debe a Jean-Marie Le Pen. Españoles, Le Pen ha muerto - elpais.com/opinion/2025...

Mis libros favoritos de 2024:

Escribo en @politicaprosa.bsky.social sobre las elecciones alemanas, el fin del "milagro alemán" y la profunda crisis estructural a la cual se enfrentará el próximo gobierno federal.

We are asking Ukrainians to defeat the armies of Putin and Kim Jong Un. In their efforts to do so, Ukrainians helped bring down Assad. Ukrainian resistance is one of the most stunning military achievements in modern history.

In essence, the #euro crisis only got better once all 3 German dogmas went out the window. 1) That the ECB was no lender of last resort, 2) that austerity was the way to fiscal health, and 3) that banking supervision and clean-up should remain national responsibility.

New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹 Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state? We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out shorturl.at/zQ8bJ

"Madrid no será una gran región metropolitana sin sus universidades públicas. Su presidenta nunca cumplirá ese programa si su forma de relacionarse con la enseñanza superior es ideológica." @ubeda1955.bsky.social en @elpais.com. elpais.com/opinion/2024...

Carl Schmitt you fucking hack. You didn’t even consider that Parliament could just vote no to the Sovereign

Today, in fun things to do that just take a moment of your time: trying to get paid a modest speaker's fee from a university. As a bureaucratic project, it's up there with obtaining a visa for North Korea and getting the BBC to pay VAT.

Con tal de afianzarse en el 4% de intención de voto, hay una izquierda que tira por tierra sus propios logros en el Gobierno. La concienciación en torno al sector de reparto en plataformas digitales, su traducción en procesos legales y codificación vía Ley Rider derivan de cuando UP tenía ministros.

El 23F hay elecciones en Alemania y todas las miradas están puestas en un nombre: Friedrich Merz. Este perfil del más-que-probable próximo canciller alemán es perfecto para conocer a la persona detrás del político o al político detrás de la persona. legrandcontinent.eu/es/2024/11/3...

"Hace falta que la política muestre lo que es capaz de hacer ejecutando presupuestariamente, más en un momento en que el Legislativo avanza con dificultades al depender de los votos de Junts." El análisis de @danielbernabe.bsky.social del Congreso Federal. www.infolibre.es/opinion/colu...

NEW An argument about Assisting Dying Matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion By me emptycity.substack.com/p/an-argumen... (substack) davidallengreen.com/2024/11/an-a... (personal blog)

Lo del desmantelamiento de la universidad pública por Isabel Díaz Ayuso parece la motosierra de Milei por lo bajini. Me parece ciencia ficción. Pero está pasando. 👇 elpais.com/educacion/20...

Too much UK analysis of the whole Brexit saga ignores the negotiating dynamics and focuses instead on narrow domestic politics. I hope that won't be repeated for upcoming talks, and that we'll understand that outcomes are shaped very early by constraints on both sides.

"As the world’s most powerful country, America may feel that appealing to international law and institutions is something that only wimpy Europeans need to do. But even the mighty US needs allies and global rules ... A world without law will be a frightening and dangerous place." on.ft.com/3B4igUv

Mexico's hand is considerably stronger against the US than it was during Trump's first term (nearshoring, China-related issues, immigration cooperation) and I think Mexico feels it needs to fight back at least a bit otherwise its going to be the go-to country to flog whenever Trump needs a win.

Este instituto de Benetússer ha perdido todos sus libros. Cualquier ayuda es bienvenida.

China has been a key strategic partner of Hungary's since its post-2010 "Eastern Opening" strategy. As this article explains, it has formed part of HU's attempt to counterbalance its growing dependency on the EU/the West. However, this strategy has also impacted upon the EU's foreign policy. 1/2

Esto de @danielbernabe.bsky.social es muy bueno.

"[W]hile signing a petition hardly compares to the storming the Capitol, it would be dangerously naïve to ignore the fact that each of those phenomena occupy positions on the same populist continuum."

Que Javier Cercas, uno de los grandes novelistas españoles de las últimas décadas, suceda a Javier Marías, uno de los grandes novelistas europeos del último siglo, es de una profunda justicia literaria. elpais.com/cultura/2024...

One of the last reforms which the outgoing German government will drive through - with the CDU's support - is one protecting the Constitutional Court against the rise of the AfD. www.dw.com/en/germany-m...

This captures the key shift in EU politics since 2019: the emergence of an alternative right-wing majority in the Parliament. In 2019-24, the EP was the most pro-EU of the two co-legislators: think RoL conditionality. Given the new majorities, it is unlikely that this will be the case in 2024-29.

Weak autocracies are far more common than strong autocracies. They are also often far more dangerous and damaging than strong autocracies. Never take hope from an autocrat’s weakness. Instead, prepare for the worst. A 🧵 based on 2 of my books: (1/N)

"If Trump dominates or obstructs NATO summits, EPC summits could provide a backup venue for Europe’s NATO allies ... This EPC “NATO within NATO” could take the form of a Defence Working Group comprising European NATO allies ... It could invite Canada, EU Presidents, and NATO’s Secretary General."

Hace semanas que la desinformación, las redes sociales y el futuro de la democracia dominan el debate público español, europeo e internacional. El pasado mes de agosto traté de abordar algunos de estos asuntos en El Correo. www.elcorreo.com/opinion/trib...

The Sixth Committee of the UN General Assembly has taken a critical step toward creating a new Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes Against Humanity, adopting a resolution that creates a timeline and process for treaty negotiations. Read it here: undocs.org/Home/Mobile?...

Latest on the rival bids to set up new international train services between St Pancras and the Continent - and the row that threatens to derail them www.standard.co.uk/news/transpo...

“If you choose to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc and drift gently around in the Atlantic — and are not sure whether you want to join an American regulatory regime for trade or the EU one — it’s going to leave you looking very isolated.”

“What did you think when seeing the 🚦 coalition drama?” Merkel: “Men!”

"Europe is under attack from Russia. Why isn't it fighting back?"

John Prescott was one of the towering figures of New Labour, despite being mired in various controversies - not least punching a voter on the campaign trail - here's my FT obituary www.ft.com/content/3054...

ICC issues arrest warrant for Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu https://www.ft.com/content/0b62f17a-97db-4817-90f8-f98adead79f0

Hace 49 años murió Franco, y la fotógrafa Lea Levi se plantó delante de la tele para retratar en 442 fotos los cuatro días que le dieron la vuelta a España. Este especial de 2018 de @elpaissemanal es de las cosas más alucinantes que hemos publicado. elpais.com/especiales/2...

La "crisis Ribera" se ha resuelto, pero las tres tendencias que ha ilustrado -un Parl más derechizado, una mayoría de derechas que reste poder negociador al Partido Socialista, y un Weber con un afán de protagonismo aún mayor- marcarán la legislatura 2024-2029. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

"In the end, all the structural forces point towards some UK-EU rapprochement, perhaps in the 2030s, perhaps in the form of the customs union. The opportunity cost, which is the power to strike trade deals elsewhere, isn’t what it was. History is seeing to that." on.ft.com/4fCifGv

How Trump could reshape the judiciary (again). www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

“About 61% of core tutorial teaching is done by academics on fixed-term contracts or in hourly-paid roles. … Once preparation, marking and supporting students are taken into account, [pay] often falls below the minimum wage in real terms.” www.theguardian.com/education/20...

"En mi país somos tres millones e importamos 27 millones de pares de zapatos. Ni que fuéramos ciempiés, es de locos. ¿Nacimos para trabajar nomás? Vos sos libre cuando haces con tu vida lo que a vos se te antoja, que de repente es boludear." elpais.com/america/2024...

«Vos sos libre cuando haces con tu vida lo que a vos se te antoja, que de repente es boludear» Pepe Mujica

This tendency to want to just close the eyes to opposing viewpoints has proven a huge problem for progressive politics. It's rooted in the the idea that even to engage is somehow morally compromising. It means that the argument is not joined and real people aren't won over. bsky.app/profile/lewi...

Thinking of deleting your X account? Think again. After 30 days, it’s gone for good—but your username could be hijacked by scammers or trolls. It might be better to delete all tweets, lock it and leave it inactive. Impersonation and account theft are booming. Stay safe.

1. The EPP's veto of Commissioner-designate Teresa Ribera reveals a phenomenon which has been underlying EU politics for several years: namely, that the EU's cordon sanitaire, which had hitherto survived as a top-down norm, is undergoing a bottom-up fragmentation. What do I mean by this? 1/5