In case folks interested in seeing how the forward netback gas prices have moved over the last couple of weeks.. Mid $20's per GJ for next 12 months .. haven't been that high since early 2023, following the first energy shock. Domestic prices haven't seemed to move up..... yet

So I made a bit of a thing. I hope you like it. www.naruresearch.com.au

Who's gonna tell him?

"Worst case really is we won't have enough, or we won't have any...It is more difficult if we have no diesel at all than if we have a supply that is expensive" Philippines may not have any fuel supply beyond April; no official reserves & govt is in talks to buy at premium prices.

NV Energy will also not be able to meet its climate goals thanks to skyrocketing power demand from data centre developments. This whole region is under so much stress from this industry that it's hard to describe thenevadaindependent.com/article/data...

In case you're interested in what's happening to the futures prices for next FY in the NEM...

I have a joke about carbon offsets but someone else is going to have to tell it to you and a third person is going to have to verify if it is funny while a fourth person argues that the second person was already going to tell the joke anyway

Stockpiling valuable liquid un-Australian? The Rum Corps would like a word...

idk I’ve seen a bajillion kids movies where the kids parents die & let me tell you, having a convo with my kid about how anyone can die at any time & it doesn’t matter if they’re someone’s mom or dad is way harder than having a convo about how sometimes someone has two dads or whatever. And yet

They've gone and shrinkflationed a dozen ..

incredible, he did the joke

People switching from ChatGPT to Anthropic are telling on themselves. Will they now cancel their Claude subscriptions because it was used to help plan the attack on Iran? They won’t and we all know it.

When you gain the admiration of actual fascist supremacists, it may be time for for some self reflection. #auspol #ALP

Seems the Vic Premier's Literary Awards aren't bowing to pressure or self censorship in choosing the winners this year. I read Fierceland a couple of weeks ago and thought it was excellent. Also thought Discipline was very much worth a read. www.theguardian.com/books/2026/f...

🚨 New paper: Coupling integrated assessment and energy system models 🚨 Planning future energy systems requires bridging two fundamentally different scales: long-term transformation pathways spanning decades, and short-term power system operations unfolding hour by hour. #EnergySky #PyPSA 🧵

I just did the dumbest thing of my entire career to prove a much more serious point. I tricked ChatGPT and Google, and made them tell other users I’m a competitive hot-dog-eating world champion People are using this trick on a massive scale to make AI tell you lies. I’ll explain how I did it

The really insane thing about arts funding cuts like the ones currently devastating Victoria is how small the savings are. Jacinta Allen is presiding over generational damage to the arts scene, for a saving of around 1 day of transport infrastructure spending

OKAY BIG ONE FOR YA NEW report out today: I dig deep into how big tech has been muddling tech types and overstating evidence to claim "AI" will make global emissions drop like a stone.... Not only will it not, it seems to be verifiably doing the opposite!! ketanjoshi.co/2026/02/17/b... + 📼+🧵>

"In a landmark study, OpenAI researchers reveal that large language models will always produce plausible but false outputs, even with perfect data, due to fundamental statistical and computational limits." www.computerworld.com/article/4059...

I am not sure you could come up with a worse put down of the Liberal front bench than James Paterson saying "Angus is the smartest policy brain in the shadow cabinet” live.thepoint.com.au

Absolutely huge crowd in Melbourne right now. People from all backgrounds, ages and professions - united in opposition to genocide and war. This is what social cohesion looks like.

Only six months late but I really enjoyed this preso from @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social touching on one of my favourite niche energy topics: diesel! Pipeline gas has real challenges meeting seasonal peaking needs - big tanks of liquid fuel are a great complement www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/defaul...

I am absolutely not kidding

He’s not wrong.

With the LNP vote hitting 18%, it’s a good reminder of this 1988 cover

The Washington Post was consistently doing some of the best climate reporting out there in recent years. This is a huge loss (h/t @sammyroth.bsky.social) open.substack.com/pub/climatec...

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 100.0% RE Last 232 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

January was another above-average month in Australia…not a big surprise but the size of the area with average maximums for the month of 39C or higher is notable:

Underlying demand, and underlying demand ex-solar contribution (both utility and rooftop) over the last week or so ... 🔌💡

Solar provided 59% of electricity in the Australian national (east coast) grid between 9am and 6pm over the past week. It was 30% of total generation. Life moves pretty fast etc. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Every ad now

lol these actually look like ducks.. 🔌💡

In August 2021, I started running weekly simulations of Australia's main electricity grid to show that it's possible to get very close to 100% renewable supply with just enough storage to supply average demand for 5 hours. Here are learnings from 4 years of simulations: /1

.. what a difference 17 years makes. Previous peak day in Victoria - (29 Jan 2009) - virtually no wind and solar. 🔌💡

Love the concept of AI code being a "Denial-of-service attack on our human effort." (From FastAPI AI Contribution Guidelines: fastapi.tiangolo.com/contributing...)

Record breaking electricity demand in both Victoria and Sth Australia yesterday. Wind & solar performed very well, reducing residual demand by 28% & 58% respectively. 4th highest ever demand on the NEM as a whole, with wind & solar reducing residual demand by 30% Here's stats from post 2023 data

Ended up just under 300MW higher than previous peak. More interesting, is the timing - can clearing see the impact of rooftop solar - shifting the peak from 17 years ago occuring ~1:30pm, c.f. today occuring at 7pm (local time). 🔌💡

So we have a new record peak demand for Vic tonight (and still climbing!)

Record temperatures, bushfires, meh fire up those data centres that use stonks of water and require a shit tonne of electricity www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Update: currently on track for a new record demand for Victoria (at least by one measure). And as previously, actual demand still running above earlier forecasts.

Victoria has set a new all-time heat record at just under 49C, while Doiyh Australia has set its equal-fourth hottest day (and equal 10th nationally for January). Via BoM

Reminder that, as of the latest reports, Liam Ramos is still in prison in Texas - now for 5 days. His parents are legal asylum seekers with no criminal record.

Renmark in South Australia reached 49.6C and had 67km/h wind gusts.

Melbourne times

Forecast peak demand for Vic is close to a new record this evening ... actuals are currently running comfortable ahead of forecasts - if that keeps up, will certainly be a new record

Oops forgot this figure - I thought a pretty a good representation of the battery / gas dynamic.. 🔌💡

2025 certainly a big year for batteries in the NEM 🔌💡 www.afr.com/policy/energ...

HISTORIC HEAT IN AUSTRALIA Climatic history is set to be rewritten with an absolutely deadly week: Today 48.5C in South Australia,47.2 New South Wales, 45.3 Queensland,45.0 Victoria ‼️We might expect 7 CONSECUTIVE DAYS >46C in New South Wales and we can't rule out 50C. A HELL