"If Mexico’s war on drugs is to achieve more than fleeting military victories, the government must dislodge criminal groups from the areas they control and dismantle the support systems that keep them afloat". ✍️ @dmoravera.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com

Read David Mora on Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s security strategy—and how Mexico can “turn short-term tactical victories into real strategic gains against criminal groups.”

Foreign Affairs invited me to write about Mexico’s security strategy after the killing of crime boss El Mencho. While editing, the Trump admin indicted Sinaloa governor Rubén Rocha and others, pushing the bilateral relationship into even more volatile terrain www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

"Investigations that end in the prosecution of corrupt political figures and cartel financiers—not just those who commit violence—will be crucial for Sheinbaum to turn short-term tactical victories into real strategic gains against criminal groups". ✍️ @dmoravera.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com

The U.S. indicted the governor of Sinaloa state & other current and former Mexican officials on charges of ties to drug trafficking, which they deny. @dmoravera.bsky.social explains what's behind the charges and the complex political waters President Sheinbaum must navigate with the U.S.

USG just unsealed major indictment against Sinaloa gov Rubén Rocha + 8 current/former officials, charged with drug trafficking & weapons offenses. DOJ alleges Los Chapitos, one of Sinaloa Cartel’s main factions, would have helped Rocha win office in exchange for protection. Rocha denied everything.

🗒️ NEW ANALYST NOTEBOOK | Long Wait for Results in Peru’s Elections Ratchets Up Tensions Crisis Group expert @glaeldys.bsky.social examines the reasons for the delay and the implications of the first-round outcomes for the country’s next government.

Manzanillo accounts for much of Mexico’s illegal traffic. Chemical precursors get in; wood, wildlife and mercury go out. Mislabeling, corrupt authorities, strained port workers, limited scanning and inspection are all factors that help covering criminal activity under legit trade.

NEW Q&A | U.S. Snaps up Venezuela’s Oil and Rare Minerals in Race for Supplies Even before the price of oil spiked, the Trump administration was eyeing Venezuela’s natural resources. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain the challenges lying ahead.

NEW Q&A | Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba? Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades. In this Q&A, we explain the causes of the island’s predicament and offer ways of easing it. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...

Join us on 3 March for a timely webinar where RUSI experts and associates will explore the security, political and wider implications of the death of the leader of Mexico’s Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG), ‘El Mencho’.

📌 Join @crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social on Tuesday, 3 March, for a @rusi.bsky.social webinar on Mexico's criminal landscape after the killing of the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel. ⏰ 14:00 – 15:30 GMT Register here 🔽 my.rusi.org/events/webin...

NEW ANALYST'S NOTEBOOK | Killing of Mexican Cartel Boss Brings Diplomatic Victory and Domestic Mayhem @dmoravera.bsky.social analyses the potential fallout of the operation against the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel. www.crisisgroup.org/anb/latin-am...

MX Army killed El Mencho today. A win for Sheinbaum. USG is happy too. The Cartel was quick to react setting buses, trucks and businesses on fire, blockading streets and highways. Locals? Terrified. I’m in Guadalajara, a city that virtually emptied out. No public transport, people sheltered in place

Hoy no se puede hablar de la naturaleza del conflicto armado en #Colombia sin reconocer que hay niños y niñas obligados a participar en todas sus dimensiones. Hoy, escribo en @elpaisamerica.bsky.social sobre el reclutamiento de menores @latam.crisisgroup.org elpais.com/america-colo...

MAÑANA | Nuevo informe

Violence in Sinaloa hasn’t stopped. In just two weeks: mass kidnappings and overtly political attacks. The MX gov says Chapitos were behind them. On the abduction of 10 miners (at least 5 killed), Sec. Harfuch said it was a case of mistaken identity, Chapitos allegedly thought they were with Mayos.

This weekend, #Haiti entered a third chapter in its political transition since the 2021 slaying of President Jovenel Moïse. As the presidential council’s mandate expired, Prime Minister Didier Fils-Aimé became the sole head of the executive. Here’s what happened and what might come next 🔽

📒 NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | U.S. Gunboats Patrol Haiti’s Waters amid Wrangling over a New Government Crisis Group expert @diegodarin.bsky.social assesses the political deadlock in Haiti and the motives behind the deployment of U.S. naval vessels off Port-au-Prince.

📽️ NEW VIDEO | Living in Fear: How Gang Violence Is Reshaping Ecuador Crisis Group’s expert @glaeldys.bsky.social explains why Ecuadorian criminal groups have grown so precipitously since 2021, and the impact of the government’s strategy to deploy the military to combat insecurity.

NEW ANALYST’S NOTEBOOK | Mexico Seeks to Placate White House with Mass Criminal Transfer David Mora assesses the latest handover of convicts and criminal suspects amid threats of U.S. military action on Mexican soil. www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...

Following days of increasingly strident demands from U.S. President Donald Trump for concrete results in Mexico’s anti-crime fight, President Claudia Sheinbaum on 20 January transferred 37 members of criminal groups to U.S. custody.

#Mexico transferred 37 prisoners to the US in a move to quell tensions, as Washington once again threatens strikes on drug trafficking groups Yet renditions to the US have tended to escalate violence in Mexico. My colleague @dmoravera.bsky.social explains 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/alr/latin-am...

Sheinbaum just handed over 37 cartel suspects to U.S. custody. After the U.S. attack in Caracas, Mexico needs to deliver clear wins for Trump to further deter any U.S. unilateral military move. This is it. Some quick thoughts from Sinaloa, where I am doing fieldwork this week:

After US operations in Venezuela, the ELN has taken steps to ensure its interests are safe, regardless what happens in Caracas. Today I write in @nytopinion.nytimes.com, the ELN stands emboldened to threaten communities, Colombia, and US ambition in Venezuela 👇 www.nytimes.com/2026/01/14/o...

NUEVA DECLARACIÓN | Venezuela después de Maduro: ¿Transacción o transición? EE.UU.ha decapitado al Gobierno venezolano. Su anuncio de que “gobernará” el país después de marginar a la oposición corre el riesgo de dejar a los venezolanos en una peor situación.

📑 NEW REPORT | Undoing Haiti’s Deadly Gang Alliance A gang coalition has pushed violence in Haiti to alarming levels. As a new foreign force takes shape, plans must be in place not just to overpower criminal groups but also to persuade them to disband. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

EVENTO EN LÍNEA | Violencia y crimen organizado en #Ecuador 🗓️ 2 de diciembre | 10:00 Quito | 10:00 Nueva York | 16:00 Bruselas Con Renata Segura, Glaeldys González, Karol Noroña y Guido Núñez. Regístrese acá 🔽 www.crisisgroup.org/es/how-we-wo...

NEW REPORT | Paradise Lost? Ecuador’s Battle with Organised Crime Ecuador was an oasis of calm as its South American neighbours descended into drug-related crime and conflict. No longer. www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

@comfortero.crisisgroup.org @crisisgroup.org talks Trump's campaign in Latam and Mx: “La solución no puede ser permitir nuevamente uso de fuerza excesivo desde el exterior, porque tiene repercusiones, como ya hemos visto en Sinaloa, con fragmentación de las fuerzas del crimen y aumento de violencia”

A changing landscape in the prevention and mediation of global conflicts - @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, President & CEO of @crisisgroup.org, on how shifting power dynamics, new actors, and rising instability are redefining the art of peacebuilding. www.youtube.com/live/azqt5RV...

Si estás en la Ciudad de México la próxima semana, no te pierdas este conversatorio con nuestra presidenta, @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, sobre el nuevo panorama en la mediación y prevención de conflictos. 📅 5 de noviembre, 4:30 p.m. 📍 Sala 1, Unidad de posgrado, Ciudad Universitaria.

NUEVA PUBLICACIÓN | #México: Respaldar las reformas de seguridad ante la creciente presión de EE. UU. Crisis Group analiza cómo la Unión Europea y sus Estados miembros pueden ayudar a México a fortalecer la seguridad y reducir la violencia.

🔴 We just published the Autumn Update for our Watch List for the European Union. This special @crisisgroup.org report highlights global crises that the EU has the potential to address in 2025. Here are our latest updates: www.crisisgroup.org/global/watch...

Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.

Hoy se cumple un año desde que las dos facciones más grandes del Cártel de Sinaloa, los Chapitos y los Mayos, iniciaron una cruenta ola de luchas internas. @dmoravera.bsky.social, analista senior para #México, estuvo recientemente en el Estado de #Sinaloa. Esto fue lo que encontró 🧵

Today marks a year since the Sinaloa Cartel’s two largest factions, Chapitos and Mayos, fell into a deadly wave of infighting after the former kidnapped and rendered “El Mayo” Zambada to U.S. authorities. I visited the state recently for @crisisgroup.org and this is some of what I saw.

Colombia has for years helped the US seize narcotics, capture criminals & unravel global trafficking, without the gratuitous casualties of last Tuesday’s boat strike. Decertification would undermine the regional fight on org crime, I write for @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/o...

Tensions between the US and Venezuela have sparked growing concern in #Colombia about the possible spillover of any destabilization in Caracas. As a taste of what may come, a short🧵on the changing armed group dynamics along the 2,200km border 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

#Mexico @crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social spoke to @biannagolodryga.bsky.social about the aftermath of drug kingpin Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's detention, the split within the Sinaloa Cartel, and the violence that has engulfed Sinaloa after his arrest.

"Fentanyl production and trafficking in Mexico is highly fragmented—small networks, labs inside houses in cities like Culiacán. Drone strikes there would be complicated and dangerous," @crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social told @newsweek.com.

All CBP migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border so far in fiscal year 2025. Includes Border Patrol apprehensions and port-of-entry encounters. October-January: 31% citizens of Mexico. February-June: 74% citizens of Mexico. Data table: cbpdata.adamisacson.com/cbp_data_tab...

📖 En el escenario mundial, Trump no siempre consigue lo que quiere En este comentario, nuestra presidenta y CEO, @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, y nuestro vicepresidente ejecutivo, Richard Atwood, analizan la política exterior de la segunda administración Trump hasta la fecha 🔽

NEW Q&A | U.S. Troops to Los Angeles: A Dangerous Escalation As residents in Los Angeles protest a crackdown on undocumented migrants, Donald Trump has sent in military personnel. @bcfinucane.bsky.social explains why this order is an ominous sign. www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

Starvation as Statecraft www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Una baja participación marca la elección de jueces en #México @dmoravera.bsky.social, experto de Crisis Group, analiza los efectos de la victoria de los candidatos de gobierno en las históricas elecciones del país 🔽 www.crisisgroup.org/es/latin-ame...

Following Sunday’s elections, Mexico’s ruling party gained control over the country’s high courts. But this happened with a low 13% turnout. My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on what this implies:

Mexico's judicial election results are trickling in. So far we know Supreme Court votes. Full results, including all judges, will be tallied only until next week. Noticing two things: (1) Ruling party, MORENA, is poised to control the Supreme Court with most of the future justices with party ties.