In which @madisoncondon.bsky.social and I expand on our argument that "extreme" climate scenarios, such as RCP 8.5, are actually useful and we should use them as part of climate risk analyses. Thanks to @progressivereform.bsky.social for encouraging us and giving us space!

A new paper led by @bbastien.bsky.social estimates that accounting for climate pollution's impact on the oceans via the one-two punch of warming & acidification nearly doubles the social cost of carbon (which the Trump EPA thinks is $0). My new @climateconnections.bsky.social article & 🧵 (1/8):

As @bbastien.bsky.social told me, improved estimates of the social cost of carbon are still valuable to other countries, and even state governments. And at some point, a future evidence-based administration will be able to make use of it too. Hopefully before the damages become too great (8/8)

That’s how we officially kick off the semester in my research lab—with ambitious goals, beautiful human beings and delicious tamales! Check out our new lab page here: climaysociedad.atmosfera.unam.mx/hub-ecosiste...

New paper with Francisco Estrada! This is a paper on termination shock risk and the governance challenge of deploying solar geoengineering when international coordination is so hard to achieve. Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... New Scientist: www.newscientist.com/article/2513...

Climate change has an impact on the oceans, which in turn affects humanity, including our economy. In this recent paper, we quantify these impacts www.nature.com/articles/s41..., led by @bbastien.bsky.social with @francescogranella.bsky.social @maxtav.bsky.social within @sparccle.bsky.social project

🔍 Behind the Paper: 'My Neighbor, the Ocean.' 🌊 The system that regulates the planet’s climate barely appeared in climate policy calculations. Not because it had been “wrong” before, but because it had been incomplete.🔗 Read more here: bit.ly/49NXSo4. @bbastien.bsky.social #ClimateChange

The social cost of carbon (SCC), a crucial indicator for #climatechange policy, has largely overlooked the significant economic and societal benefits provided by oceans, often referred to as 'blue capital'. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

RESEARCH: Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon. Co-authored by Dr. William Cheung @ubccoru.bsky.social @solvingfcb.org www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🌊 Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon By factoring in impacts on corals, mangroves, fisheries, & ports, the 2020 blue social cost of carbon jumps to $48/ton CO2-almost doubling traditional estimates. Protecting “blue capital” matters www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Accounting for ocean impacts nearly doubles the social cost of carbon www.nature.com/articles/s41... #jcampubs 🌊

The Social Cost of Carbon for the Oceans is out today in Nature Climate Change. www.nature.com/articles/s41... Until now, ocean damages have been largely missing from SCC estimates used in climate policy.

Solar radiation management looks most attractive precisely when governance is weakest — and that’s exactly when it’s most likely to fail. Check out our new paper in Environmental Research: Climate iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Projections indicate that rising ocean temperatures could offset anticipated gains in global mangrove restoration by 2100, resulting in significant ecosystem and economic losses, especially in Asia. doi.org/g92dsh

About 150,000 hectares (580 sq. mi.) of mangrove ecosystems, vital for coastal protection, habitat creation, carbon storage, and water quality, will be lost by the end of the century due to #climatechange, with Asia bearing nearly two-thirds of these losses. oceanographicmagazine.com/news/warming...

New paper out! We looked at how warming oceans & socioeconomic change shape the future of mangroves worldwide. @ioppublishing.bsky.social TLDR: Climate change could stall restoration efforts & deepen global inequalities. Paper: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

After months held up in customs, @paulkelleher.net 's book finally made it to me. Now riding along with me on the Mexico City metro.

Claim: "Water vapor is a greenhouse gas!" Reality: Yes, and there's more of it in a warmer atmosphere -"CO2 is plant food!" -pretty hard to eat when you're on fire -"Climate has changed before!" -We know, we told you that -"Scientists don't know everything!" - doesn't mean we know *nothing*

New paper! Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Polycrisis isn’t a series of mistakes — it’s a tangled web of crises we navigate through increasingly rough terrain. In this study, we compile a global database and analyze the co-occurrence of shocks, the building blocks of crisis, from 1970 to today. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Very happy to be an AERE Scholar this year! I'm looking forward to contributing meaningfully to the field.

Call for abstracts! The Beijer Young Scholars are convening a session at #AGU25: "Advances in Modeling and Governing Interacting Shocks in the Anthropocene". Submit by July 30! 🌍⚡ 📍New Orleans, Dec 15–19 🔗 agu.confex.com/agu/agu25/pr...

What a view of the Sandia mountains last week in Albuquerque. So happy to join the @aereorg.bsky.social scholars cohort, an amazing group of supportive and brilliant people!

📈 Daily global temperature between 1940 to 2025 – @hausfath.bsky.social 2️⃣ bsky.app/profile/haus...

A weather system over Houston keeps delaying my connecting flight, but still hopeful I'll make it on time for the first session!

What an amazing week at the Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences! Sharing ideas, methods and good moments with this talented group of scholars studying socioecological impacts.

🚨"Heat disproportionally kills young people: Evidence from Wet-Bulb Temperature Exposure" My new paper co-lead with @ajsw.info is out today! Using 20 years of nationwide mortality microdata + wet-bulb temperature, we uncovered fascinating new findings. Thread 👇 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Fossil fuel companies should be forced to pay the public trillions in damages for the costs of their planetary arson. Instead they are trying to shut down one of the most important and storied environmental groups in the world. It's shameless - and it's not over. www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

Very cool episode on the environmental effects of increased US exports of natural gas @danielraimi.bsky.social ! I would add the effect of the transportation itself. LNG tankers shipping US gas in the Gulf of California could severely disrupt marine ecosystems. open.spotify.com/episode/0W47...

AGU has joined a lawsuit challenging the firing of probationary employees at federal agencies. These actions weaken science, harm public health & the environment, and threaten national security. 🧵 #StandWithScience

Kicking off AGU council meeting with an inspiring quote and new horizons for my taste buds

In an activity of naming ocean-based values that I've been doing for a while in some classes, the top words historically have been 'food' and 'recreation' 🌊 I was happy to see a new word emerging today: 'peace'. Naming what we value is the first step to including it in environmental policy

Another one of these nutty, likely illegal, definitely disruptive moves that has massive potential implications for climate & energy policy, and only in the most myopic ways imaginable. Via @financialtimes.com

New paper out. Nice and short! Answers the question: how should policy makers handle the new information on uncertainty in climate change severity? With @frikknesje.bsky.social @gwagner.com and Mark Freeman. (Top coauthors!) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Post doc opportunities in energy and water system modeling in Milan, Italy! Come join a newly established research division on Technologies for Climate Transition at eiee.org cmccfoundation.applytojob.com/apply/25Rqvm... #IntegratedAssessment #MacroEnergySystems #Climate

In my latest article, I look at the bet on material prices between Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich, and ask who would have won over different decades of the 20th and early 21st century. Also discuss why their bet wasn't a good test of either of their worldviews. ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlic...

Foundations and future directions for causal inference in ecological research, forthcoming w/ @katherinesiegel.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/4mm57zzd. We wrote it based on our experience teaching causal inference to ecologists w/ some stuff we wish other papers had reviewed to share w/ the students 1/n

Vicious cycle

Excited to announce a new @pnas.org publication on the Social Cost of Carbon. We integrate evidence from the literature and expert survey to provide an SCC distribution inclusive of both parametric and structural uncertainties. Our mean 2020 value is $283 per ton CO2 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

For my latest for Eos, I talked to @davidho.bsky.social et al about what happens to the ocean's carbon uptake when it rains, and why it's been so hard to figure this out (story features pink kids' pools) 🌊🌎🧪 eos.org/articles/rai...

This was a really fun conversation about a fascinating topic with the excellent @bbastien.bsky.social. Check it out!

Check out @bbastien.bsky.social talking to @danielraimi.bsky.social on this Resources Radio podcast about his recent Nature paper quantifying changes in the natural capital stock from climate change effects on terrestrial biomes www.resources.org/resources-ra...

So stoked about artists illustrating our recent paper on climate-driven ecosystem range shift and economic impacts. This is from Maria Fernanda Goldblatt 🤩

We had a great conversation and can't wait to see it live. Thanks a lot!

What unfolds when ecosystems shift across national borders due to climate change? Thrilled to share our latest paper in Nature, which delves into the consequences of these climate-driven biome migrations on human well-being. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Open access in Nature today, work led by @bbastien.bsky.social quantifies the market and non-market welfare impacts of climate change effects on terrestrial vegetation www.nature.com/articles/s41...

"“The big question is what do we lose when we lose an ecosystem?”" @bbastien.bsky.social with @climatefran.bsky.social on the decline of natural capital with global climate change. New UC Davis study in Nature.