I see Ray Dalio finally moved on from today is the 1930s. Now it’s the 1970s.

For those asking about these metals. Gold is like a physical bitcoin.

Folks, I’m signing off from this website as well as the others. I value the engagement and will miss those of you who I don’t personally know. If you want to talk, call me or send me a text. ✌️

Part of the implications of being skeptical of algos is in 2017, if a Twitter bluecheck posted “XYZ fired for being critical of QRS” there was a good chance the claim had passed through multiple levels of filters to be posted. Today, if “XYZ fired” shows up in your feed it could just be algo grift.

This is an extremely important point. One that we all need to come to realize. Not just about Charlie Kirk, but about everyone and every issue that is filtered through the social media ecosystem.

To my point:

Best post I’ve seen in a while

Trends that to me all seem related: -There are a huge number of households earning $100k+ and/or with $1M+ net worths -We have not increased the supply of goods (housing, elite higher ed, Disney/Vegas) to meet this wealth -Hiring is weak, especially for young people -Those without money are YOLOing

I’m no tennis expert but these two guys look like they could dominate the sport for years to come.

Holy shit it’s @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social

Carson Beck’s making $4 million in Miami, throwing a TD, having fun. Quinn Ewers (could’ve made millions of dollars playing for Michigan this year) got drafted in the 7th round and is the 3rd string QB for the Dolphins.

Perhaps I’m wrong. But I think it’s very unlikely that the Qs collapse or that this is a dot-com bust.

Sitting in Costco parking lot. Daughter napping in back. I started with a 97% state of charge yesterday, did 105 miles with a trailer (don’t ask), another 52 miles without, and ran a tailgate (fans, slow cooker, hot dog roller, interior AC) off my truck for four hours. Why do ppl have range anxiety?

There is a pyramid in a way in this ecosystem — you start with dance or unboxing videos and if you get some attention try to keep leveling up. Jake Paul did it too:

Alright so what week will Sanders take over as the starting QB in Cleveland?

Me in @opinion.bloomberg.com: for white collar workers, the labor market right now is best-described as bifurcated. It’s hard for young college grads, but despite being in the shadow of AI, wage growth in the industry has actually accelerated lately: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

What were the five best/least-bad years of the past 25 years? I’d probably go: 1) 2021 2) 2013 3) 2014 4) 2019 5) Feels like I need something from the 2000’s but the whole decade was bad

So what next? I think Sept sells off. We now have duties priced into the market but it’s significantly overpriced vs what we are paying in physical markets. In fact, the CoT report shows a *massive* commercial short position as a % of open interest at 72%. Are you smarter than the smart money?

I’ve been surprised to see September lumber futures grind higher over the past 3 weeks. With July futures expiring so soft (basically going off near the post tariff sell-off in May), I thought we’d see Sept chase the weak July expiration. But it has just slowly posted higher gains.

Excluding education and healthcare we should probably believe that employment in America is contracting -- and in the middle of a capex boom no less!

Fed holds the 4.25%-4.50% Fed Funds target range in July.

Novo stock has now underperforming T-bills since GLP-1’s went mainstream.

Being a kid in the pre-internet early ‘90s, baseball had so much cultural clout — I spent a good portion of my time thinking about Ryne Sandberg, Ozzie Smith, Will Clark, Fred McGriff, Roger Clemens. Don’t think that was unusual either. Can’t imagine many kids are like that today.

The idea behind this view is that many folks that would normally be looking to buy a home are not doing so, because of high rates, perceived high prices, etc. So they are using that money to partake in the experience economy. And also to invest in high flying speculative stuff.

@bencarlson007.bsky.social & @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social making this argument on Animal Spirits & Compound pod this week. They also expand the argument beyond my take about travel/experiences spend. They & their guests make a strong argument it’s contributing to crypto & meme stocks inflows too.

The S&P 500's rebound from April is now 26%, a move so extreme it's divided consumer sentiment in half - if you own stocks (top 30% of households), confidence is back. If you don't, sentiment is at the lows of '22. When people say "the consumer" is doing this or that, ask "which consumer?"

To me this is more about a vibe than a specific income level. -reasonable housing costs relative to income (allowing for leisure/discretionary spending) -certain kinds of consumption habits (travel, dining, apparel brands, etc)

With the huge caveat that the sluggish resale housing market is muddying a lot of migration trends, if you’re 35+ and just want to own a house and have any old job I do think places like Greenville and Chattanooga have a higher quality of life than exurban Atlanta: www.wsj.com/economy/atla...

If there is one thing that most folks get wrong about investing (RE, stocks, bonds, etc) it’s the belief that “what goes up must come down.” When did Apple or for that matter the S&P 500 “revert to the mean”? As Josh and JC said in the pod, volatility is what reverts to the mean—not asset prices.

Something about 2005-07 is it was clear there was a lot of change coming, the way the air feels before thunderstorms, and it feels that way now in a way it didn’t in the 2010’s imo.

The media environment that the median voter consumes is much more conservative-leaning and algo-driven than it was even 5 years ago. Establishment Dems mostly have no answers for how to win in this media landscape, leaving campaign innovation and media tactics mostly to progressives.

There's some room to fall further but not a ton - we are still badly underbuilt and the pipeline is collapsing.

This administration just likes to feed rumors and nonsense to the media to just everyone tuned in. Best thing to do is tune it all out. There are things being done that will eventually cause real problems. Some of it will be after he is gone. For now, it’s a bull market. No matter what he says.

I used to get so mad at MLB. It was like “guys you’ve got the best sport in the world and the powers that be constantly do stupid stuff that refuses to bring the game into the 21st century.” But these last few years they have really turned it around. Pitch clock, replay, field of dreams, Ricketts!

Also MLB has really figured things out the last few years. There is no way on earth that pre Manfred they would have had a HR derby swing off. Both the tv product and the live in person product are so improved over what it was. I rank a live MLB game over NFL & NBA now days.

I hope they showed the AARON tribute on tv. That was really spectacular. And I have no idea how they did it.

MLB made much more intelligent music choices in Atlanta than the NFL did.

With the #2 pick the Angels select Tyler bremner

I’m thinking I might Woj the MLB draft. Aka post the picks a couple mins before they are on tv

Costco finally deciding it wants to be a serious company you love to see it

This tragedy happened in my hometown. I have family and friends that coaches these young men and played ball with them. www.wsbtv.com/news/local/h...

Red Sox pitcher injured trying to beat Simpson to 1B. @conorsen.bsky.social

As we predicted last night. It’s basically on nothing that impacts the overall economy.

Wow this website finally turned on the option to have alerts!

The debt argument is so tired. Fiscal conservatives lost a long time ago. Liberals are unwise to make that argument now. IMO there’s a lot to like in the tax bill. If you want to attack it attack the Medicaid cuts, the ice funding, & defacto declaring china the winner on energy.

3 new Zach Bryan songs this morning.

They do need to say it. But right now nothings going to matter. The bill will pass. It will become law. And people will have to experience the negative impacts of it. Only then will it matter.

Young people in cities aren’t voting for socialism, they’re voting for something better than whatever leads to $29 sandwiches and the monetary feudalism of the current system, according to Garrett Baldwin themoneyprinter.substack.com/p/you-didnt-... You Didn’t Kill Capitalism. The Fed Did.

Market is also screaming the tariffs aren’t real and that whatever is eventually implemented will be irrelevant to the economy.

The market can be wrong and it can quickly change its mind. But right now it’s making a hard statement that the Fed won’t get so far behind the curve that labor deteriorates to the point of a recession.