Son almost had his first TD.

BSky algo is so much better

Lumber still no bottom

Dabo would rather destroy the football program he built over 15 years than adjust to the new normal of NIL & Transfer Portal.

How in the world is GT not ranked !?!?

The housing market was in stagflation in early 2022, it’s in mild deflation now.

Lumber futures dynamics have flipped. A look behind the curtain:

This is a wild chart

The issue is markets were comfortable with a view that Fed Funds terminal rate had a floor of around 3% and job growth might be slowing but would probably be steady in the 50-100k/month range, and now both of those assumptions no longer hold. There's not yet an "anchor" of what to trust.

Jesus Christ

Holy shit it’s @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social

Lumber knew??

Lumber. I’m a bit shocked

Woooof:

Shohei Ohtani the pitcher has touched 101.1 mph and thrown five pitches at or higher than 100 mph today. Shohei Ohtani the hitter crushed this ball 109.5 mph off the bat and a whopping 440 feet to center field. The Dodgers superstar is truly unbelievable.

Update:

I’ve been surprised to see September lumber futures grind higher over the past 3 weeks. With July futures expiring so soft (basically going off near the post tariff sell-off in May), I thought we’d see Sept chase the weak July expiration. But it has just slowly posted higher gains.

Lumber and moose update

With the huge caveat that the sluggish resale housing market is muddying a lot of migration trends, if you’re 35+ and just want to own a house and have any old job I do think places like Greenville and Chattanooga have a higher quality of life than exurban Atlanta: www.wsj.com/economy/atla...

Life hack

Whoopsies. Was wrong. Update here:

LB1-LB2 indicating a glut of supply hitting lumber markets. Ugh

1/ I'm on vacation through the 4th across the pond - I won't be able to resist labor market posting, but will be lighter than usual. Benchmark for continuing claims on Thursday is 1.925M, but I'd bet it'll be north of 1.955M. Bad news!

If @matt-levine.bsky.social did sports he would be alllll over this. Incredible episode

Lumber market update:

Lumber market is firm. Still cheap. But not going down as much lately.

I told you we’d be back

Back to back emails this morning from suppliers telling me my nail and my truss connector plate prices are going up due to metal tariffs.

youtu.be/06ZL9GsBc50?... If you were a 90s kid. This is a must watch

Trump said this past week that Musk was “a big-time drug addict” which raises the somewhat awkward question of WHY HE GAVE HIM THE KEYS TO THE ENTIRE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Anyone on here fly fish? I’m headed up to Jackson hole and Yellowstone late this summer and need to trade info.

WHY CAN’T I FORWARD AN EMAIL TO MICROSOFT COPILOT FOR ANALYSIS AND ACTION YET

This will have a very chilling effect on framing crews in Florida. Handcuffed. Rounded up. I mean, are these guys going to El Salvador prisons? Other crews are going to assume so and PTFO.

DVD Commentary was the first podcast. I watched Fight Club with Pitt and Norton commentary seemingly 100s of times in college.

The 9ers had a great season. Not much is more satisfying than seeing a group of kids grow into confident competitors!

Lumber market is basically done for the season. Spring pop (enhanced by the tariff hype) is behind us. I’ll look to buy again around July 4. Housing and lumber are now a 2026 story. Talk next year. Thx.

Bluesky needs a cross promotion with Bluey

Coaching is so much fun.

My kids are loving my ability to talk Gen Alpha slang (via chatGPT). Helped my wife write a 5th grade farewell speech for her class. I’m super rizzed to keep using ChatGPT—gotta stay NPC-free and drip-checked so the cool kids don’t say I’m mid.

Went straight from Andor series finale to Rouge one.

Let them eat tariffs

Housing starts 😬

What about the other 49 states though?

Baseball night rides home.