On 21 October 2025 Russia conducted "the key test" of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile (also referred to as SSC-X-9 Skyfall). The test is reported to be successful. The missile travelled 14,000 km in a 15-hour flight (Image: Pan'kovo test site). Links follow 1/

The End of MAD? Join me, Steve Fetter, @jaysankarans.bsky.social, TD MacDonald, Ton Stefanik, @lauraegrego.bsky.social, @fiona-cunningham.bsky.social, and Charlie Glaser to discuss whether technological developments are undermining mutually assured destruction. Link for virtual rego in next post.

Climate change & nuclear weapons are often seen as twin threats to future generations. My new open access article shows that while both pose similar moral dilemmas, intergenerational nuclear injustice is harder to spot—and harder to fix. doi.org/10.1111/1758... 1/🧵

Deutsche Bahn is cautiously optimistic

Our workshop report “Assessing Missile Defense Technology and Policy Half a Century After the ABM Treaty” is now out in the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

To be sure, I'm not saying that Russia did not violate INF Treaty, my points are: - calculation of maximum theoretical range of a CM is not a correct way to determine its actual maximum range; 1/2 bsky.app/profile/kady...

BM and CM are very different beasts. Why do you think GLBM range is defind as “range,” while GLCM range need to be ”determined by projecting its flight path onto the earths sphere from the point of launch to the point of impact."? 1/6 bsky.app/profile/frho...

On the 9M729 Controversy Under INF Treaty Rules A followup to my reply bsky.app/profile/kady... to the discussion on 9M729 (re)initiated by @frhoffmann.bsky.social Under the INF Treaty, “range capability” is defined for ballistic missiles as “the maximum range to which it has been tested,” 1/6 ‬

Interesting post by ‪@frhoffmann.bsky.social‬ My own ball-park calculations on the subject: let's take Tomahawk 1,600 km range-optimized version and try to estimate its range at very low altitude for the duration of the flight. 1/3 bsky.app/profile/frho...

Bild today: "Trump's special envoy, Witkoff, is said to have... misinterpreted Russia's demand for a "peaceful withdrawal" of Ukrainians from Kherson and Zaporizhia as an offer of a "peaceful withdrawal" by the Russians from these regions." www.bild.de/politik/ausl...

In case you missed it, here is "Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XLIV, Part 1, National Security Policy, 1985–1988" history.state.gov/historicaldo...

Interviewed by CNN (via ‪@gianlucamezzo.bsky.social‬ and ‪@tqiblawi.bsky.social‬) on the tech side of the Israel–Iran conflict for this report: edition.cnn.com/2025/07/28/m...

Join IFSH! We are seeking a Senior Researcher with broad expertise in dual-use technologies and their impact on deterrence, defense, and arms control policies. The position will not focus on cyber topics. ifsh.de/en/institute...

How does #Russia look at the #Israel-#Iran war? How is Russia reacting; how will it position itself; what are its cards; what are its concerns - and what are the implications for its war against #Ukraine? A🧵on 6 themes

Nach den ukrainischen Drohnenangriffen auf russische Bomber kursierte das Gerücht, Russland habe die Maschinen wegen des New-START-Vertrags im Freien parken müssen – und sie dadurch angreifbar gemacht. Das stimmt so nicht. Zum dpa Faktencheck mit Einschätzungen von @kadyshev.bsky.social und mir. 👇

Realist theory says “kick the Russians while they’re down” open.substack.com/pub/deadcarl...

The article overlooks a key point: the risk of instability stems from Russia’s use of strategic nuclear weapons systems for conventional attacks. It is unrealistic to use strategic assets and expect them not to become legitimate targets. thebulletin.org/2025/06/ukra...

How do you know you’ve done something right? Rubio, Vance and Musk criticize you.

Wie könnten Kriege der Zukunft aussehen? Welche Rolle spielen Panzer und Drohnen? Eine zweiteilige ZDFinfo-Doku geht tief ins technische Detail hinein - inklusive Interviews mit mehreren unserer IFSH-Rüstungskontrollexpert:innen. Ab sofort in der ZDF-Mediathek zu sehen ➡️ ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Achtung, junge Forschende, Promovierende, Lehrende und Mitarbeitende in Think Tanks und Instituten, die Sicherheitspolitik betreiben: Die Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft organisiert im Mai einen Science Slam – einen Forschungswettbewerb zu sicherheitspolitischen Themen. ata-dag.de/security-sla...

New volume of Science & Global Security is out. With papers on ICBM silo vulnerability to conventional attack (free access), Arrow 3, hypersonic cruise missiles, fissile material and tritium production in Pakistan and DPRK, and more. See scienceandglobalsecurity.org/editorial/20... and 👇 1/

IFSH research report on the Chinese missile program by Markus Schiller is now available in English: ifsh.de/en/publicati...

I just read it. Very solid stuff on Arrow 3 and footprints by @kadyshev.bsky.social and @ohnemax.bsky.social, give it a read.

A new article by myself and @ohnemax.bsky.social on the utility of Arrow 3 for European missile defense. And a new tool for footprint calculation and analysis and missile/interceptor modeling. Free access link (limited number of copies): www.tandfonline.com/eprint/8AV5B...

Nice work here from @ohnemax.bsky.social and @kadyshev.bsky.social on Germany’s Arrow 3 acquisition. Illustrates the importance of fully integrating Arrow with allied C4ISR and ultimately PWSA to extract full capability from the platform.

Good paper by @ohnemax.bsky.social and Timur Kadyshev on Arrow 3: “The analysis shows that the Arrow 3 system is not likely to enhance German and European security regarding existing Russian threats.” www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Please share: Call for applications for the Master's program "Peace and Security Studies" at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg (IFSH) ifsh.de/en/teaching/...

The article is in open access now.

In a new article in Defence & Peace Economics Igor Moric of SGS Princeton and myself attempt to estimate the cost-exchange ratio for U.S. ballistic missile defense against a major scale nuclear attack: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/NJZVR... (free access link)