Tom Metcalfe, a scholar from the year 2120 in Ian McEwan’s "What We Can Know," yearns for our long lifespans and wild landscapes. It's a literary, time-bending, and moving reminder of what we have to lose ... column today susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/ten-things...

0.5 % annual risk ... is a key metric for running a large insurance business in the NE. Why isn’t that level of risk the planning lever for governments... driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities? @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/insurers-p...

I can tell you this: Based on multiple tabletop exercises with local municipalities around Massachusetts- No, they are not prepared. No matter what you hear. Local EM capacity is not up for it.

“A 0.5% annual risk might sound pretty low. But it’s a key metric for running a large insurance business in the Northeast. Why isn’t at least that level of risk the planning lever for local governments in that region, driving building codes, land use decisions, and investment priorities?”

Insurers plan for 1-in-200-year storms. Why don’t governments? If a Melissa-level hurricane hit the Northeast, would we be ready? New column looks at climate whiplash, risk, and what real preparedness means. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

Fire risk: "Why would the federal government go into the business of subsidizing living in areas that insurers don’t want to insure and reinsurers don’t want to cover?", asks @scrawford.bsky.social

Wait for the knock-on effect on the mortgage market....

Trouble ahead: “Nevada is home to the fastest rate of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) development in the country—over the last 30 years, the number of homes in the WUI more than tripled. The state has also seen nearly 20% of its land area burn over the last 40 years.”

Susan Crawford on Nevada exempting wildfire risk from home insurance coverage. Climate policy and economic policy, not so separable.

Nevada just let property insurers exclude wildfire coverage. Homeowners won’t realize until it’s too late that fire isn't covered. Expect shock, underinsurance, and scrambling for expensive new policies. Plus: pressure for a federal wildfire safety net. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

We talk about the AI bubble a lot but we really should be talking about the climate-related housing bubble even more

The real estate industry & its Wall Street financiers would greatly prefer that we pretend climate change doesn't exist. So imagine the challenge they now face with Trump's proposed privatization of mortgage giants Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac. @scrawford.bsky.social explores how this could play out.

Another great read from @scrawford.bsky.social, with necessary (but politically hard) solutions. “Unless governments at all levels do the extraordinarily difficult work of forcing physical changes that will keep people safer, only despair, foreclosures, and sinking markets are ahead.”

Taking Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public harnesses faith that markets always rise and housing always recovers. But their MBS include hold loans tied to climate‑vulnerable places, and the public will still be on the hook when things go bad. Post today: open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

There is no arsonist to blame—just deepening, widening uncertainty. The private home insurance market in California is not functioning. "The math doesn’t work,” @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/california...

We are all going to miss property insurance when it's gone. Mortgage? Not without insurance. Just like that your property value goes up in smoke even if it's not literally burning.

California’s FAIR Plan seeks 36% rate increase as wildfire risk and insurer exits surge. With $650B in exposure but just $1.5B cash on hand, the math no longer works. Homeowners face costly coverage, rising assessments, and a volatile market going forward. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

Join @scrawford.bsky.social at @politicsprose.bsky.social in DC today at 5 p.m. for a conversation with Jennifer Anne Moses (YOU'VE TOLD ME BEFORE, @uwiscpress.bsky.social)! It's our Spotlight Event! www.washingtonindependentreviewofbooks.com/features/jen... #booksky

Sellers’ prices are not yet adequately reflecting the burden that higher insurance costs (and thus a limited universe of possible buyers) pose for these houses. @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/whats-a-ho...

Climate change is going to hit the economy: “Even though this [crisis] is more regional [than the Great Financial Crisis],” says Burt, “it’s still something that’s pretty terrible.” He wishes we could prepare. Otherwise, he says, we’ll see “disorderly results” similar to what happened in 2008-2011.”

Climate risk hammering LA’s housing market: insurance is harder to get and more expensive, homes stuck on the market, price cuts happening. Insurers and the state’s FAIR Plan reel. Market repricing is underway. Investors and the Fed still looking the other way. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

But if you are investing in coastal real estate in the US and expecting to make money, you are closer to participating in a perp market than you may think. @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/investing-...

Investing in a beach house? You’re betting—just like traders in crypto perpetual futures. There are risks you can’t control, from price swings to back-to-back climate disasters. In 2025, it's closer to speculating than you might think. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

The wildfire version of this is playing out in Los Angeles as we speak. When you burn down 15,000 urban structures, you coat everything downwind (ie the rest of the city) - inside and out - in asbestos, lead and arsenic among other things.

Good article! Like how you mentioned the SRS (my old stomping grounds), weather impacts can stir some things up decades after the event. Just like the Mt. St. Helens dust this week

Toxic landfills and storm surges don’t mix: when hurricanes hit, they can unleash leachate, methane, and poisons into water and soil. But bond markets ignore the risks. Column today - open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

What will it take for investors to price climate risk? “Betting on bonds, ignoring climate risk: mind-numbing that there's just so little attention on the credit side in terms of this [climate] risk in the municipal bond market” @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/betting-on...

Right now, municipal bonds are booming, but few investors—or rating agencies—are facing up to long-term climate risk. With extreme weather rising and climate threats mounting, today’s muni bond mania could be tomorrow’s bubble. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

New book review: Price on Crawford, Susan P.: _Charleston: Race, Water, and the Coming Storm_. Pegasus Books, 2023. Published by H-Environment. Read here: networks.h-net.org/node/20124674

Markets’ capital allocation functions distorted b/c we fail to demand impact risk pricing. Excellent ex @scrawford.bsky.social: credit scores, not physical risk, drive insurance. But, higher credit scores subsidized to live in disaster risk areas. Why? susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/how-insura...

“…researchers say the cost of natural disaster risk…is passed on disproportionately by insurance companies to people with lower credit scores.”

Every time I see Pritzker pop up, he's doing nerdy/cool things to help people: in this case, home insurance rates, which are quickly escalating due to #climatechange and ofc punishing the disadvantaged the most. great piece by @scrawford.bsky.social susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/how-insura...

Most U.S. home insurance rates aren’t driven by climate risk but mainly by credit scores. Crucial price signals about danger are getting lost, while lower-credit (often lower-income) Americans pay the most as risks climb. Needed: pricing transparency from insurers. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

“For decades, industries facing regulation have employed the same playbook: hire contrarian experts, selectively cite favorable research, ignore contrary evidence, and claim that mainstream science is too uncertain to justify action.” www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-mercha...

"These are both global catastrophic risks that will affect the lives and well-being of many, "causing suffering to at least one billion people or a total loss of 10% of global gross domestic product" as Johan Rockstrom, director of the PIK, said at the beginning of July"...

Wall Street’s AI bubble gets headlines, but there's important news about accelerating warming. New studies about abrupt Antarctic melting and a looming collapse of Atlantic ocean currents—flooding, disruption, and suffering for millions are closer than we think. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

🧵As Americans grow more vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters, the country’s infrastructure will have to adapt. In two new Carnegie papers, @scrawford.bsky.social explains what’s at stake and charts a path forward.

While the new DOE assessment is known by climate-savvy people to be full of BS, it “will be used by developers and local officials along the coast to tamp down any forward-looking planning aimed at aligning land use rules and investments in infrastructure with the physical risks we face.”

"Under discussion are plans to hold a public debate about climate science, write a line-by-line rebuttal of the National Climate Assessment and ready a counterattack against climate scientists critical of last month’s Energy Department report." 🤪

The new DOE report tries to downplay rising sea levels, but independent analyses and NOAA data show that sea level rise is not only happening, it’s picking up speed along the U.S. East Coast. Ignoring this will have consequences for U.S. financial stability. open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

Dangerous lies from the Departmebt of Energy on climate change, writes @scrawford.bsky.social "The recent DOE report will comfort too many people into kicking all cans down all roads until it is too late." susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/sea-levels...

Signs of the climate crisis, number 4,763: Now you can buy an insurance policy for your insurance policy. susanpcrawford.substack.com/p/hedging-ag... But as @scrawford.bsky.social points out, this may just pile up risk. A kind of climate credit default swap. #greensky #climate #adaptation

Reminds me so much of @scrawford.bsky.social’s recent blog post. California edition. $11.2M for 1600sf on a sandspit directly exposed to El Niño storm surge. What could go wrong? redf.in/lflHha

As an epic thunderstorm fueled by bananas warming booms away outside my office window, I thought I'd re-up this one. Financializing rather than reducing physical risk is the theme of today's post - and the post is free - and it's my 99th -

Home insurance premiums climb as climate risks accelerate. Now there’s a potential market to bet on this volatility. Eventual’s “Premium Lock” lets you hedge risk hikes—highlighting America’s knack for turning danger into financial products. Column here: open.substack.com/pub/susanpcr...

Great analysis here. I’ve kept tabs on this from growing up in eastern NC. Any thought of “managed retreat” needs to account for the strong - and perverse - incentives cementing oceanside towns, property taxes, & property valuations to the status quo, billion dollar disasters be damned.

Good points here by @scrawford.bsky.social I think the underlying problem is that buyers see coastal events- not trends. After the event they think there won’t be another for awhile and they can enjoy the coastal property. They think it’s like musical chairs - and expect to be lucky.

🎙️ New podcast episode of America Adapts! Inside the MR2025 Conference: → Climate mobility → Managed retreat → Real estate + risk → A global call from 🇨🇷 Pres. Carlos Alvarado Retreat isn’t failure—it’s adaptation. 🎧 Listen!