New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

The latest Personal Independence Payment data shows a further slowing of applications, with average claims down 7% in the year to October The largest reduction in new claims has been from people over 45 The OBR has said it expects monthly applications to fall to around 60,000 during the parliament

A helpful explainer here from Louise on the impact of system change on the UC health caseload It's also worth noting that up to 2023, 30% of the rise in the caseload was because of expected policy and demographic changes

Scrapping the two-child limit will significantly reduce child poverty over the parliament and improve the living standards outlook for low-income families But more is needed to improve incomes, through higher earnings, lower housing costs, and a stronger social security system

Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30

📊 Latest figures out from the ONS this morning showed that inflation slowed to 3.6%. But food inflation rose to 4.9%, up from 4.5% in the previous month. The outlook for around 7 million households going without essentials in the UK remains extremely stark. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Good to see DWP accepting much of the Work and Pensions Committee's recommendations for improving jobcentres Moving from a one-size fits all to a tailored approach will improve the relationship people have with their work coach, help them find better jobs, and improve their economic security

Truly fascinating stuff here! Kitchen table concerns vs things your newsfeed tells you to worry about…

It really is worth taking the time to hear from people like “Mary,” who fled from Zimbabwe 20 years ago, to understand what life is like when the law denies you the chance to call the country where you’ve made your life home

Practical and progressive action here from the govt. Healthy workers benefit their companies and society overall. Right that employers are part of making that happen.

In new @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis with @katieschmuecker.bsky.social we show how cost-effective improvements to social security can quickly improve the living standards outlook for families Scrapping the two-child limit and creating an income floor in Universal Credit would make a real difference

Analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social this week suggests this could be the worst parliament for living standards since detailed records began This doesn't have to be the case, but clearly more needs to be done to boost household incomes and ensure every family can afford the essentials

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be

The Govt has not published an employment impact assessment for their disability benefit cuts & increased employment support 📣New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows where you live matters, with competition for jobs higher in some areas with higher claims: former industrial & coastal areas 1/5

Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢 The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

What the child poverty strategy is is much more important than when it is. 1 million children are in destitution and pulling them out of poverty requires serious action on social security. Hope govt can see that. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest? New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales. Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread

This was raised in the Commons today. Heartening to see MPs across the House - many drawing on their lived experience - highlight deep concern over changes to PIP eligibility leading to loss of Carer's Allowance. parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

NEW from @jrf-uk.bsky.social. Much was made of the pressures from a “changing world” on public finances. Those pressures are also impacting families, and government choices are making it worse. We find the avg. family will now be £750/yr worse off by 2029, vs today. Thread. #SpringStatement

OBR's measure of living standards, RHDI, is up by £500 - largely due to stronger wage growth, including planning reforms which boost incomes. BUT when you dig into it, 3/4 of the extra income from housing services is 'imputed rents' (what families would receive if they rented out their home). 1/3

Some families with a disabled adult stand to lose over £12,000 per year by 2029/30 as a result of the Government's disability benefit cuts. Hardship being deepened by rebuilding the nations finances on the backs of disabled people And polling suggests the public know it.

Later today we'll have a better understanding of the magnitude of cuts to social security But we already know the rough impacts for individual households Like someone making a new claim that doesn't get PIP daily living or LCWRA and so could lose almost 60% of their AHC income

The cuts outlined last week were already going to cause significant hardship for disabled people Someone losing out on health related UC and most of PIP could see their monthly income fall by over £800 Now further rash cuts are on the way. In no way is this a sensible approach to policy-making

Living standards are forecast to have already peaked this parliament, with Keir Starmer on track to preside over the worst parliament in modern history for living standards. New JRF analysis on living standards ahead of the Spring Statement ⬇️ 1/🧵

Big picture today is Government chose to cut unprecedented £5bn of income from disabled people at highest risk of hardship. This drive for cost savings undermines any positive changes contained in the disability benefits green paper. Here are some other big problems:🧵1/11

Not sure about this from the IFS. In the real world, I'm not convinced that changing an incredibly miserly income of £4,732 per year to a still-miserly £5,096 per year is going to persuade people, who would otherwise have got a job, that they're now so financially comfortable, they're not going to.

Yesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had "quadrupled" since the pandemic (a "383% rise"). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It's more like 40%. This thread explains why 🧵1/7

This DWP press release is poor. Yes, the number of people receiving incapacity benefits has increased since the pandemic...But just focusing on the UC LCWRA group over time is deliberately misleading: we'd expect the UC caseload to rise as people move from old benefits. www.gov.uk/government/n...

It's frustrating so see this idea reemerge, and for it go unchallenged on R4 Today while cuts to the most vulnerable are being discussed First of all, historical analysis by @jrf-uk.bsky.social has found that it is very rare for two generations in the same family to have never worked

It's difficult to engage in good faith in a discussion about 'compromise' proposals that dignify the phoney premise that we simply can't afford to scrap the two-child limit & benefit cap. £3.5bn would be incredible value for the poverty alleviation (& knock-on economic benefits) it would achieve

More people than ever are falling below an adequate standard of living. The latest Households Below Minimum Income Standard (MIS) report by CRSP at @lborouniversity.bsky.social reveals a stark reality 🔽 1/4

Great to be in Manchester today to discuss @neweconomics.bsky.social work on the need to rethink how conditionality is used in the benefits system, & the implications for devolved employment support, with @andyburnham.bsky.social & lots of local organisations involved in helping GM residents

In her speech the CX mentioned the rising cost of social security for people with health conditions and disabilities With further cuts expected to the support people receive, it's worth highlighting that 30% (243k) of the rise in the health caseload is due to expected policy and demographic changes

4.3 million children are in poverty UK govt won’t see progress on child poverty by 2029 even with high economic growth 📢 Our analysis shows under our central scenario only Scotland will see child poverty rates fall by 2029 in part due to social security policies 1/5

New year, new job! After an amazing three years at @neweconomics.bsky.social, I'm incredibly excited to be joining @jrf-uk.bsky.social as a lead analyst As before, I'll be sharing thoughts on social security, tax, and other policy areas that work towards eradicating poverty and reducing inequality

Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be abolished in Scotland from 2026, benefitting 27,000 families and almost 100,000 children. But more than 1.5m children will continue to be impacted until the policy is scrapped across the rest of the UK

Chuffed that our Reforming Right to Buy paper has been selected as a 'Must Read' by @thinkhouseinfo.bsky.social alongside some truly excellent housing reports from this year - including Shelter's wonderful Brick by Brick! Check out our work here: neweconomics.org/2024/05/refo...

Child poverty using the BAR measure is now well above the early-2000s peak, while the line is broadly flat for the traditional ‘after housing costs’ measure. DWP analysis has shown the new BAR measure is more aligned to material deprivation than the old HBAI numbers 2/2

NEW: Is Britain’s welfare too generous? Most countries pay workers who lose their jobs more than half of their previous salaries. In Britain, unemployment benefits are *12%* of the average wage @thetimes.com 1/5 www.thetimes.com/article/c28d...

Excellent to see the HSF has been extended, but as Katie says local welfare is in a mess. Long-term funding can start to fix that. The friction with national DWP policy should also be reviewed e.g. UC deductions reduce incomes by more than local welfare spending in every region.