New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

New analysis suggests the recent rise in health-related benefit claims is likely to be partly explained by the sharp drop in real incomes from the cost of living crisis. Social security should be there for any of us when we need it, such as losing a job or becoming unwell.

🚨 New analysis alert! Our latest modelling shows that living standards are still set to fall across this Parliament up to November 2029. However, actions taken at the Budget have made this decline less pronounced *by more than half* for low-income households.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

Every child, no matter their background, deserves to have a good start in life. Ethnic minority children were disproportionately impacted by the two child limit which widens ethnic disparities in child poverty rates. Scrapping this cruel policy to lift 450000 children out of poverty is a huge win!

Today the OBR finally published employment impacts of Govt’s (remaining) disability benefit cuts, which weren’t ready in the spring. Confirms @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis at the time that these huge cuts to disabled people’s incomes come with relatively few expected to move into work. 🧵1/3

Scrapping the two-child limit is a vital step towards achieving the Government's manifesto pledge to reduce child poverty and give more children the best start in life. 📉 Estimates show child poverty decreasing by 450,000 by 2029-30 as a result. metro.co.uk/2025/11/26/t...

Brilliant to see that the two-child limit will be scrapped, lifting 450,000 children out of poverty in 2029/30

🎉Child poverty is at a record high, so the decision to end the two child limit is crucial Poverty holds children back, with consequences for all of us. Every child should have a good start in life This measure alone lifts 450,000 out of poverty & lessens severity for many more

No one in the UK should experience destitution - wherever they were born – and destitution should never be an acceptable outcome of policy. But some policies announced in the Home Secretary’s asylum statement risk increasing destitution. 🧵1/7 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Universal Credit was missing a crucial objective from its inception: to address poverty. 15 years on, it’s time we made Universal Credit the poverty-fighting system it could be, writes @iainkporter.bsky.social for @bigissue.com https://bit.ly/4pc0PVB

📒 Government published Sir Charlie Mayfield's ‘Keep Britain Working’ report today. An ambitious framework for how employers can support workers in ill-health. Focus must be here to shift the dial on employment of disabled people & benefit spend, not cutting people's benefits. 🧵

Great to be at powerful @turn2us.org.uk report launch in Parliament today, alongside @jrf-uk.bsky.social colleagues! Our social security system should be there for all of us when we need support, and treat people with compassion, dignity and respect #StopTheStigma

📊 Latest inflation figures published this morning show that CPI inflation sat at 3.8% for September. Why does this month's figure matter more? The government will use it to inform how much to uprate benefits by from April 2026. 🔽

We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.

New DWP data today shows 123,000 families – including 103,000 (over 4 in 5) with children – had their Universal Credit reduced by the benefit cap in May 2025. This eats into UC’s already inadequate basic rate, pulling it further below what’s needed to afford life's essentials. 1/6

Govt dropped cuts to PIP, but today's Committee report highlights MPs' concerns that many disabled people will be pushed into poverty by remaining cuts to Universal Credit's health element. In evidence to the inquiry I warned of the hardship this will cause. 1/5 www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Over 1.6m children are now impacted by the Two-Child Limit - 11.6% of all children This is a cruel policy that unnecessarily drags children into deeper levels of hardship It needs to go, and the longer it is kept, the greater the scarring effects on children's health and education will be

Actually around 50,000 people will be pulled into poverty by remaining cuts in Bill - based on Govt’s impact assessments. @jrf-uk.bsky.social previously showed how DWP sleight of hand underplayed true poverty impact – same applies to this latest publication. 🧵1/3 www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Today MPs will vote on the amended welfare bill. MPs who choose to walk through the lobby and support this bill are paving the way for at least 150,000 people to be pulled into poverty. Here are just 3 reasons why they should oppose this bill from @katieschmuecker.bsky.social 🔽

Today Govt confirmed changes it will make to planned cuts to disability benefits. But Govt will still ask MPs to vote for large, arbitrary cuts to disabled people’s incomes that will increase poverty. The Bill should be opposed. Here’s why. 1/7

These are big changes from Govt to protect existing disabled claimants from cuts - Govt has been listening. But new claimants from April 2026 still face deep hardship from cuts, which should be opposed. Over 400,000 new PIP & 700,000 new UC-health claimants will be £'000s worse off in 2029 1/2

UPDATED with employment status: @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency data on PIP claimants at risk of losing out from disability benefit cuts. 60% of people who are in work and claim PIP could lose (1 in 5 current PIP recipients are in work). See drop-down menu here: jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

Ahead of a crucial vote on cuts to disability benefits, our new evidence casts doubt on whether jobs are even available for disabled people facing cuts 📢 The analysis found that the parts of the country among the hardest hit by the cuts have fewer job opportunities 1/3

Much of the Government's intention for cutting PIP and UC is to motivate people to find a job But cutting social security can't 'incentivise' people into jobs that don't exist New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis shows there are simply too few jobs for the Government's argument to hold

Great to see broad swathe of MPs expressing opposition to a Bill that will increase poverty and destitution amongst disabled people. This new joint briefing for MPs from 10 organisations sets out the broad & deep concern about the Bill from civil society: ucpipbill.co.uk

🗣️ "It's common sense, and it's part of making our social security system fit for purpose." Hear Nish Kumar address an audience of people from across the UK at our Guarantee our Essentials lobby day with @trusselluk.bsky.social. A future where everyone can afford the essentials is possible.

Govt just published the Bill to cut disability benefits for > 3 million people, revealing that mitigations for those with the most severe conditions ministers have been telling MPs about will protect only up to 10% of new claimants from a halving of UC's health element 1/5

=> @jrf-uk.bsky.social has added this constituency data on enhanced/standard rate PIP recipients at risk of losing out to our data dashboard (also breaks down by health condition) - select constituency from drop-down on chart here: www.jrf.org.uk/social-secur... www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

These are NOT concessions on benefit cuts for 3 million disabled people 1. Considering a short transitional period for people losing PIP was in green paper 2. 'Severe conditions' element from 2026 also in green paper 3. 'Right to try' always planned for 2026 too www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

NEW: Analysis published by Trussell and WPI Economics today finds that planned cuts would put 440,000 people in disabled households at risk of needing to turn to a food bank. If the UK government doesn't change course, then this will be their legacy. 👇

MPs are being asked to accept unprecedented cuts to disabled people’s incomes. @trusselluk.bsky.social analysis shows these cuts are likely to create more deep poverty and hardship than even the bleak forecast from the Government’s own limited assessments 🔽 www.the-independent.com/news/uk/poli....

NEW: More than half of disabled people with daily living needs in parts of England and Wales could lose out under planned cuts At least 50% of PIP daily living allowance claimants in ten constituencies could lose this benefit By me, for @bigissue.com www.bigissue.com/news/social-...

New @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis of disability benefit cuts by Parliamentary constituency and health condition. Select your constituency from drop-down menu on the chart at the following link, to see how many PIP recipients are at risk of losing out: jrf.org.uk/social-secur...

🔥📖 out today, shares firsthand accounts of how the childcare system is failing parents on a low-income and sets out co-produced recommendations for how it could be improved 🔥📖 changingrealities.org/writings/it-... [Please read & share this short 🧵]

NEW: Internal DWP figures show 700,000 families *already* in poverty are forecast to be hit by planned disability benefit cuts That's on top of the 250k+ who are predicted to be newly pushed into poverty by the changes By me, for the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

Freedom of Information request reveals disability benefit cuts will push 700,000 families already in poverty into even deeper poverty. These cuts will see more people going without essentials, pushing those who can work further from the jobs market. www.theguardian.com/society/2025...

The Pathways to Work proposals will impact young people already facing high levels of hardship - undermining the Youth Guarantee. 💭 @rachelcasey.bsky.social examines the two competing government visions for young people furthest from the labour market. Read more: www.jrf.org.uk/work/young-p...

"The balance here is off the scale" 📢 The government's proposed cuts to disability benefits will deepen poverty and hardship, and push many further from work. Watch @iainkporter.bsky.social give evidence to the Work and Pensions Committee on the cuts.

Thanks Work & Pensions Committee (& Chair @debbieabrahamsmp.bsky.social) for asking me to give evidence today on disability benefit cuts. Govt pledged to end moral scar of food banks. But cutting £7bn from disabled people's incomes will deepen that scar & push many further from work... 1/2

NEW: Thousands of people with cancer, cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases, and more than 200,000 people with arthritis are among the 1.3 million whose disability benefits are at risk from planned cuts, according to FOI data By me, for @bigissue.com www.bigissue.com/news/social-...

The DWP have responded to my FOI request. Their figures indicate that 87% of clamants currently receiving PIP daily living at the standard rate, and 13% of claimants receiving enhanced rate, are likely to lose their entitlement if the score 4 changes go ahead. www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/pers...

Where will the cuts to sickness & disability benefits hit hardest? New @jrf-uk.bsky.social constituency analysis shows the % of working age people receiving these benefits in England & Wales. Some MP inboxes are likely to be brimming, as concern about these plans is widespread

DWP using a ‘sleight of hand’ in its disability benefit cuts impact assessment Great work from @iainkporter.bsky.social and @pollardtom.bsky.social ... and a shout out too to @tomroyston.bsky.social www.rightsnet.org.uk/now/post/61965

Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."

There was rightly concern last week when OBR & DWP documents revealed that £4.8bn of cuts to benefits for ill & disabled people would push 250k people into poverty, including 50k children But @neweconomics.bsky.social analysis suggests the true scale & impact of these cuts will be even greater... 🧵

DWP is using a sleight of hand in its disability benefit cuts impact assessment: Actual increase in poverty is closer to 400,000, not the 250,000 in the impact assessment. Quick thread explaining why. 🧵1/7

Disability benefits: soothing words, frightening numbers New column attempting to cut through the spin www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

Yesterday, the Government’s launched the #PathwaystoWork green paper. It plans to create a “clearer youth phase” by changing benefit rules for young people to support its new Youth Guarantee. Key takeaways 🧵1/7

Good thread from @katieschmuecker.bsky.social explaining how today's announcement of an increase to Universal Credit's basic rate is not what it first appears... For more details on some bigger problems in today's disability benefits green paper, see my thread here: bsky.app/profile/iain...