What do DWP feel are the most important research questions facing them over the next 5 to 10 years? Read this doc... www.gov.uk/government/p....

Interesting inflation data today, with the expected rise not coming. It is basically a story of inflation in everything bar transport going down a tad and thus counter-balancing a big rise there. 1/4

Interesting policy fellowships: www.ukri.org/opportunity/.... Two I'd highlight: 1. DWP to develop evidence of the causal links between experience of poverty and subsequent outcomes. 2. DfT on transport poverty and how improving transport affordability and connectivity.

Just left #CHASMConference2026. Lots of food for thought about dimensions of insecurity, their interactions and the role of power and agency in how lives play out. Follow @chasm-uob.bsky.social for more insights and thanks to everyone involved.

Great thread from @rachelcasey.bsky.social. One of the key messages is don't forget the role of childhood poverty in any discussion of what's needed to reduce the number of NEETs.

The @healthfoundation.bsky.social have now looked at how this compares with 20 other high-income countries: health.org.uk/reports-and-.... Picture is grim. The UK saw the second biggest fall in healthy life expectancy over the decade to 2021, beaten only by the US.

Join us! This is a very important role, working with some brilliant analysts (and others!)

We may yet see a fall from 3.3% in the April data (out in May) because of falls in the April energy price cap, and falling wage growth and a fading impact from higher employer NICs causing a falling inflation rate in services. But sadly the predicted return to ~target level won't happen.

See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.

How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

This is a precis of an excellent paper from @jelliott94.bsky.social, Rosie Worsdale and Ruby Blower at JRF. Do skim the thread or better still, read the paper.

The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25. ⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k ⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k ↔️child poverty stayed flat. More action needed! 1/7

On 26th March, new poverty stats are out. They'll look different though, with one of the biggest ever changes in methodology. Read why this is short-term pain for long-term gain, and why the changes are a bit like this Formula 1 season: linkedin.com/pulse/next-g...

Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.

Pleased to talk through @jrf-uk.bsky.social evidence on the impact on society of the pandemic today at @ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social. We need to learn from people's insight and lived experience, and I want to thank everyone we worked with or who provided info during extraordinarily stressful times.

Following #UKPoverty2026, more warning signs flashing. As well as describing problem of insufficient income from work, the Minimum Income Standard helps the solution as the key data source for the Real Living Wage ‪‪@livingwageuk.bsky.social‬‬. Even with falling inflation, costs continue to bite.

Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!

You can probably tell this isn't my natural forte (!), but we wanted to get the message out about how action is needed to lower poverty levels in the UK. If you want to hear more (including from me), join our webinar at 10.30: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....

One of the highlights of this and previous years' reports was working with the Grassroots Poverty Action Group. It's important to hear real stories and struggles, and not just reduce this to a commentary on statistics, up or down. Policies and decisions have real impacts!

This was an enormous amount of work from folk across @jrf-uk.bsky.social and beyond. Do engage with the content and let us know what you think.

New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.

Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.

All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)

Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.

We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.

We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.

Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.

A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.

Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.

Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!

See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.

Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."

This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.

Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.

In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.