New DWP forecasts show that spending on working-age social security is expected to be stable over the rest of the parliament at 5.1% of GDP This is a slight increase from the Spring, but is mainly for welcome reasons like removing the two-child limit and reversing some of the cuts put forward then

"That would mean the single greatest fall [in child poverty] in one Parliament since records began." Look at how this Parliament could compare to previous ones back to 1964. An excellent foundation to build from, as @katieschmuecker.bsky.social says.

Scrapping 2-child limit is great, but other Govt changes are terrible: by 2029/30, 750k new claimants miss out on ~£3,000 a year because of UC health changes, but OBR says this will lead to only a 26k rise in employment, so for 97% of newly sick people it's a straight cut.

All being well, I should be on @itvnews.bsky.social Calendar in Yorkshire this evening, to talk about Budget measures. DYK the number of children benefitting from the scrapping the 2-child limit in South Yorkshire alone would more than fill Brammall Lane (or Hillsborough if you prefer!)

Why does @jrf-uk.bsky.social show a fall while OBR shows a rise in living standards? See jrf.org.uk/cost-of-livi... for an explainer, and this is my latest version comparing like with like, with both series showing a disappointing profile before taking account of rising housing costs.

Chancellor said lifting 2-child limit means "Biggest reduction in child poverty over a Parliament since records began." Estimated 400k reduction would be, but modelling is always uncertain. What is certain is that removing the 2 Child Limit is pivotal to the fall.

A child poverty strategy with the 2-child limit in place would *not* be a credible child poverty strategy. *All* of the growth in child poverty since the 2011/12 low point is for children in scope of this policy.

Slightly higher earnings growth in latest month of data means real earnings are up 0.4% on the year to Sept 25, equating to £2.20 a week, a huge contrast to the previous 12-month period where growth was more than 5 times higher at 2.4%, £11.60 after inflation.

We learnt today that annual CPI inflation was 3.8% in September 2025. The Universal Credit Act 2025 increases the rate of the standard allowance in Universal Credit by 2.3% after applying this inflation, meaning an increase of around 6.2% in April 2026.

We are still at near zero real earnings growth since Sept 2024, 11th month in row. We had a very small rise in earnings in August 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.2% on Sept 2024.

Near zero real earnings growth since Sept, 10th month in row. We had a very small fall in earnings in July 2025 on previous month, leaving earnings up just 0.1% on Sept 2024.

It's been too long since we have had a housing-related thread from @jelliott94.bsky.social - now rectified! A good reminder tax changes influence behaviours (for good or ill) as well as affecting revenue.

Thanks to @crsp-uk.bsky.social for their hard work on this report, which unfortunately shows benefits fall woefully short of MIS and even families in work earning the National Living Wage often falling short of the relevant standard.

A growing economy is good news, and today's growth figures are actually better than expected, even if below the average since 2000. More broadly, the government is running out of time to put direct support for living standards at the heart of its strategy for growth.

A very small fall in earnings in June 2025 on previous month - now just 0.2% up on Sept 2024, around an eighth of the growth in the same period last year.

We now have the new MPR. It implies annual private sector wage growth of ~zero by Sept 25 compared to CPIH and ~zero by Dec 25 compared to CPI (and falling relative to CPIH). Not a good earnings backdrop to the Budget.

Ahead of tomorrow’s Monetary Policy Report, look at how real earnings have stagnated since September. They’re up just 0.3% between September 2024 and the latest May 2025 data, just a fifth of the growth over the same period in 2023-24. (1/5)

Here's a related comment piece from @mattpadley.bsky.social given his insights on pension reform: www.lboro.ac.uk/media-centre...

Delighted to give evidence to Work and Pensions Committee on pensioner poverty. Report says "retirement should be dignified and not a struggle at the poverty line." @jrf-uk.bsky.social and @crsp-uk.bsky.social's Minimum Income Standard measures this. What do the stats show? It's not good news (1/4).

Thanks @bbcnewslive.bsky.social for covering disability cuts (I'm on just after 12.20 at bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live...) I'm proud of everyone's work in getting mitigations for existing recipients, but it's not right support is being cut from future disabled people who will be at high risk of hardship.

Come join @jrf-uk.bsky.social! These are really important roles, helping us to achieve real *positive* change.

Indeed - huge kudos to @learnworkuk.bsky.social for their great work here.

My reaction on behalf of @jrf-uk.bsky.social, on today's labour market statistics and the Government's plans to cut disability benefits. The threat of widespread hardship among disabled people, unable to replace the incomes they lose out on through work, is even starker.

Well done to @rachelcasey.bsky.social and @jelliott94.bsky.social for their great work looking at how to unlock the potential of young people furthest from the labour market, which should definitely be a Govt top priority: www.jrf.org.uk/work/unlocki.... Give it a read!

See www.jrf.org.uk/child-povert... for some excellent work from @carlaonion.bsky.social looking at deep poverty in Scotland, which needed a lot of work to understand FRS data for Scotland.

Our complaint re the growth in health benefits has been upheld: osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/corresponden...: "The statement that the number of people claiming disability elements of Universal Credit has increased by 383% presents an entirely misleading picture to the public."

This is now being investigated by the Statistics Regulator, following three separate complaints, including from me. See issues log at osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/casework/.

Busy day of analysis ahead - sadly looks like we'll be adding extra loses to these example families (see itv.com/news/2025-03...). Follow @jrf-uk.bsky.social for our insights.

In terms of PIP cuts, I have been thinking about the basic maths of needing a 4 within a score of 8 for standard daily living PIP component. Given there is only one 3pt score, those newly missing out will have difficulties in at least 4 areas.

Great thread from @iainkporter.bsky.social.

Thanks to @theguardian.com for covering @jrf-uk.bsky.social work (see www.theguardian.com/society/2025...). “A government that came to office pledging to end the moral scar of food bank use clearly should not be taking steps that could leave disabled people at greater risk of needing to use one.”

@jrf-uk.bsky.social has analysed caseload data and can see much of the forecast growth in PIP spending is directed at people with significant difficulties across a range of areas. Over half of the growth in spending is from people in receipt of the higher rate in both PIP elements.

See jrf.org.uk/social-secur... for @jrf-uk.bsky.social analysis from me looking at the c400 welfare changes (mostly cuts) scored the OBR since 2010. A £6bn cut containing a £5bn PIP cut is unprecedented - and I use that word advisedly.

The Times today: £5bn/1m = £5,000/disabled person, i.e. greater than 3 of 4 PIP rates. Unless 1 of 2 numbers in headline is wrong, this has to take money away from severely disabled people on PIP higher rate, as lower rate recipients don't get £5,000/yr. Obscene to consider this!

The figure Iain refers to is one of the most misleading statistics I have seen in 25 years as a professional statistician. It focuses on the rise in UC (dark blue) and ignores existing ESA cases (light blue), when both groups are on sickness benefit.

Thanks to @alexisconran.bsky.social for having my on his @listentotimesradio.bsky.social show with Damian Green to discuss the mooted disability and sickness benefit cuts and why cuts shouldn't be countenanced. Listen from 36mins in at thetimes.com/radio/show/2....

Thanks so much to Lisa Aziz for having me on her @lbcnews.bsky.social show. You can listen back at 00:44 here: globalplayer.com/catchup/lbcn.... [Warning that I am still recovering from a cold so am rather nasal!]

I did say we had some great visualisations! Here are the headlines from the UK Poverty. Read the full report at www.jrf.org.uk/uk-poverty-2... and our examination of what future poverty levels could be here www.jrf.org.uk/work/economi....

Big day tomorrow with the launch of @jrf-uk.bsky.social's #UKPoverty2025 report. We'll hopefully be on a range of TV, radio and print media. Do follow our main channel to see some brilliant material bringing the statistics to life, as well as hearing why we need change NOW.

Final session at #UKStatisticsAssembly2025 on international perspectives. Things that resonated was the strength of a system is how well it responds to a crisis and that the UK stats system is held in high regard across the world, but needs to "hardwire agility." Looking forward to improvements!

This is a crucial post. Do apply if you feel you can make a difference and good luck with your application!

Third session of the day on Equalities data at #UKStatisticsAssembly2025, featuring Aleks Collingwood from @jrf-uk.bsky.social Insight infrastructure team, describing some important work on paucity of quality data. See insightinfrastructure.co.uk for details.

At very interestingdata linking session at @UKSTATISTICSASSEMBLY2025. My thoughts are the importance of generating momentum in using data linking to improve statistics, especially given business as usual social surveys are actually and quickly getting worse on a number of fronts.

At #UKStatisticsAssembly2025. Great contribution from Liz Hind @womensbudgetgrp.bsky.social in economic statistics session including reference to economic progress being measured as being able to afford essentials chiming with @jrf-uk.bsky.social work.

Some interesting stats out this week, which will be accessible from www.gov.uk/search/resea... once out: Weds: - DWP Annual Abstract of Stats. Want to know the benefit rates all the way back to the 1940s. This is where you look!

Currently hard at work finishing our @jrf-uk.bsky.social UK Poverty report. Do look out for the report the week after next and join our launch webinar at 10.30am on the 30th if you are around: www.jrf.org.uk/events/uk-po....

Thanks to the Work and Pensions Committee for inviting me to give evidence on rising pensioner poverty. Even though risks remain lowest for this group, we definitely don't want this social policy success story to be unwound! See parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/... for full session.

Update from DWP on methodology for their Children in low income families small area stats: www.gov.uk/government/c.... They are moving away from constraining to HBAI country / regional poverty totals and will include imputed Scottish Child Payments. Changes mean they will need to revise back series.

Do apply if you want to work on the economics of what we think is one of the key phenomena of the current age, increasing household economic insecurity.

Data, AI and hats! What more can you ask for? Excellent presentation from @mjhibbett.bsky.social at figshare.com/articles/med... on issues of cataloguing a *lot* of hats. The only thing it lacks is more of a punny title. I'd suggest 'Off with their hats: The Piaggi Collection's Journey to Figshare'