Brett Taylor (@brett-taylor.bsky.social)

More Edward Cabrera Notes: The Stuff, The Money, The Risks, The Depth, and More Fun fact about Cubs acquiring Edward Cabrera yesterday: that means the Chicago Cubs are getting him juuuuuust before they have to agree to a deal in order to avoid arbitration before today’s filing deadline! So that’ll be kinda fun. He’s projected by MLBTR to get $3.7 million, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs – having literally just paid a handsome prospect package to get him – offer a little more just to get it done. The other possibility is that they actually go through with filing figures, and, since it’s a pretty unique situation, keep on negotiating to avoid arbitration (unlike most MLB teams’ usual approach that, once you file, it’s going to arbitration). More on the Cubs’ new, extremely-high-upside starting pitcher … First, just a whole lot of happy things: Getting Edward Cabrera into the Cubs pitching infrastructure has been on the bucket list of Cubs execs and coaches for at least a year. There are health concerns but you get three years of some of the nastiest stuff in baseball.— Greg Zumach (@IvyFutures) January 7, 2026 Can I show you real quick why people are so high on Edward Cabrera’s stuff? Yeah, this is why: pic.twitter.com/xWNU2aRxCv— Brett Taylor (@Brett_A_Taylor) January 7, 2026 The big key to Edward Cabrera making a leap in 2025 was limiting walks. Went from being one of the worst in baseball there to being league average in 2025. And in the second half, it was even better at 7.7%. He walked over 3 batters just once (season finale). pic.twitter.com/K6NXpHjGYx— Matt Clapp (@TheBlogfines) January 7, 2026 I'm bullish on Edward Cabrera. Last year, he dropped his arm angle 6 degrees. That made for more separation on his breakers, more move on change & gave him a sinker he could locate better than any previous pitch. Recent search suggests lower arm slots are less stressful, too. pic.twitter.com/xZKfaJIugd— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) January 7, 2026 Edward Cabrera notes: – Had lowest average arm angle of his career (36 degrees) in 2025; had never previously been below 42. – Whiff rate on curveball by season: 2021: 29.3% 2022: 32.5% 2023: 38.0% 2024: 39.9% 2025: 45.2% – Threw his sinker a career-high 20.4% of the time in…— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) January 8, 2026 Highest whiff rate on single pitch type, SP in 2025 (min 175 swings vs pitch): Logan Gilbert, split: 50.4% Spencer Strider, slider: 48.3% Hunter Greene, slider: 46.9% Tarik Skubal, changeup: 46.8% Edward Cabrera, curve: 45.2%— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) January 7, 2026 Starting pitchers with two pitch types with at least a 40% whiff rate each, 2025 (min 150 swings):Edward Cabrera: curve 45.2%, slider 43.7% That’s it.— Sarah Langs (@slangsonsports.bsky.social) 2026-01-07T21:19:18.138Z Although Edward Cabrera increases the upside in the rotation considerably, and improves the organization’s depth by pushing everyone else back a slot, the irony is that his durability questions necessarily also increase the need for more depth. Realistically, I’m not sure you can project Cabrera for more than 130 innings in 2026 (you hope for more, obviously, but just in terms of planning), and you might get quite a bit less than that. So although the spots on the roster shrank for the depth guys, the need to keep as many of them as possible in the organization probably was unaffected. If you have to cover about 1500 innings, give or take, in a regular season, you hope your rotation can cover about 1000 of those innings. With this particular Cubs group, that might be spread over more than seven starters, with several of them (Cabrera, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Justin Steele?) intentionally governed toward something more like 120-140 innings, rather than 170+. About the innings, though: keep in mind, this acquisition is as much about impact and upside as it is about covering innings for the regular season. What you care about most of all is that Cabrera is feeling good and his best self come, say, late-September. Relatedly, although he’s gone over 100 innings just once in the big leagues, he has thrown 120-ish in total between the big leagues and minor leagues each of the last four years. Of course, many of those minor league innings were because he was rehabbing, and that’s not quite the same as throwing competitive big league innings, but the innings are in there, so to speak. If he goes 110 innings in the regular season and is in a good place to throw 15+ in the postseason, I don’t know how you couldn’t be satisfied with that in the modern game. The 2025 season was clearly Edward Cabrera’s best, and it also got better as the year went on. He had four really rough outings to open the season, and then was actually pretty dominant from there when healthy. Interestingly, after June 13, Cabrera further reduced his four-seamer usage in favor of more sinkers and more secondaries … and he put up a 3.18 ERA and 3.66 FIP the rest of the way. Everyone knows the four-seamer has great velo but has been hit VERY hard in his career. You have to use it (or at least the sinker) as a baseline pitch off of which to play the others, but there’s clearly room for improvement. Speaking of the fastball(s), Keith Law’s take on Cabrera is pretty much summed up in that way: if the Cubs can help Cabrera get either the four-seamer or sinker to being merely average, he instantly becomes a number two starter. It’s a tall order, even setting aside the health stuff, because Cabrera has consistently given up hard contact on the fastball as a big leaguer (at least getting more groundballs with the sinker, so it’s better than nothing). So something pretty fundamental would have to change, all without losing the value of his secondaries (or further risking his health). The health stuff is the biggest risk here, and I will not be yada-yada’ing over it. Consider that it’s being held up in Miami as THE explanation for the return on the trade (which was definitely not nearly as much as the Orioles gave up for Shane Baz): Ultimately, per sources, the risks of continuing on with Cabrera after 11 trips to IL and elbow issues last September were too much for Marlins to stomach knowing they could get back two top 12 Cubs prospects and knowing Thomas White and Snelling are close to the big leagues.…— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) January 7, 2026 But, yeah, without the health questions, the price tag is MUCH higher, and maybe the Cubs don’t pull off a trade at all. And given all that starting depth, they are the type of club – especially with some urgency in 2026 – that SHOULD be able to take a risk on a big-time upside arm with health questions. Getting a front-two guy is really hard. Usually, it requires taking on a lot of risk, one way or another. Cabrera has had BOTH elbow and shoulder injuries (yikes), is not on the other side of any major surgeries (kinda yikes), and the price tag implies the medicals weren’t exactly pristine (yikes). Over the next three seasons of club control here, it’s a virtual lock that Cabrera will have some long IL stints, and there’s even a decent chance he misses a year with surgery at some point. Price of poker, in this instance. Worth saying: the Cubs could’ve had more certainty and NOT given up prospects if they’d just signed Zac Gallen, for example. The play here is two-fold: you’re betting on that chance at more upside in Edward Cabrera (and, to some extent, the difference in style of pitcher), and you’re saving present and future cash to be used on other players. We cannot forget that second part. If the Cubs don’t repurpose salary savings, then all they did was – in a way – trade prospects for cash that doesn’t get used on the team. Also worth saying: this deal bolsters the 2026 rotation and, by extension, improves the 2026 depth. But, like I wrote about before, the Cubs ALSO needed more pitching for 2027+, and, with three years of team control, this trade accomplishes that (without including any pitching in the deal going the other way). Hey, maybe Edward Cabrera is even open to an extension discussion. You never know! More takes: I have some thoughts on the Edward Cabrera deal. 👀 Lower slot > better stuff > more strikes. Would *every* team have cleared his medicals? Is Seiya really going to start 140+ games in right field? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/gysn3QBiJ1— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) January 7, 2026 I think Edward Cabrera and the Cubs are a perfect match pic.twitter.com/4tzbCoaTeB— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) January 7, 2026 How would you grade the Cubs' trade for Edward Cabrera?@LanceBroz likes what he sees 👀 pic.twitter.com/ohmV56EDxH— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) January 8, 2026 It was foretold or something something: April 12, 1998: Kerry Wood MLB debut April 13, 1998: Edward Cabrera born pic.twitter.com/YiAxJ0pFgU— Christopher Kamka (@ckamka) January 7, 2026 © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2026/01/08/edward-cabrera-cubs-2/