loading . . . What the Alex Bregman Signing Means (And It Means A LOT) I’ve spent the last day and a half thinking – sometimes voluntarily, sometimes not – about the many, many, many implications of the Chicago Cubs signing star third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year, $175 million deal (with roughly $70 million deferred, and a present-day value around $150 million). It’s not hard to say this moment means something for the Cubs, but I’ve specifically been trying to pin down all of those somethings. I started jotting down what the Bregman signing means, and I couldn’t seem to stop. All right, brain. Fire away. What does the Alex Bregman signing mean? It means … The Cubs’ lineup is not appreciably worse than last season’s was. I say that despite the Cubs losing Kyle Tucker, since the big swaps in the primary lineup would effectively be Tucker for Bregman (step down) and the third base stew (it wasn’t all Matt Shaw) for Moises Ballesteros (big step up). Defensively, the differences are negligible (Seiya Suzuki has a bad rap in right field, but did Tucker actually look good out there? I didn’t see it; Bregman is a Gold Glover at third). In fairness, I am making a big assumption about Ballesteros’s bat based on his prospect pedigree, scouting projections, and a small sample of success last year. Also, although his bat effectively replaces the ugly third base stew from last year, the Cubs weren’t otherwise set to repeat that, precisely. Because it was going to be Shaw, and only Shaw, this time. But in terms of what we actually saw in production from these impacted positions/players, the Cubs’ on-paper lineup for 2026 is now pretty clearly not obviously worse than the actual 2025 offensive results. It means … The Cubs front office and ownership freaking ADORE Alex Bregman. Specifically Alex Bregman. Consider the things they’ve just now done: signing a contract worth more than $150 million guaranteed, signing a free agent who is already in his 30s to a deal that’ll pay him when he’s 36, deferring $70-ish million, granting a full no-trade clause, and straight up just paying top-of-the-market money to outbid everyone else for a free agent. These are things, individually, that this Cubs front office and this ownership group just about never do (or literally never do, in some cases). They did it all to make sure they could get Alex Bregman. They really must be over the moon for this guy. It means … The Cubs are clearly comfortable going over the luxury tax this season. Strictly speaking, they are still under the $244 million first tier of the CBT at the moment ($238-ish million), but (1) normal season churn at the margins of the roster will raise that number slightly, (2) player bonuses count toward the CBT and some could well kick in, and (3) the Cubs usually want to have flexibility to add at the Deadline if they have needs and are competitive. That is to all to say, you don’t push the payroll to the absolute precipice of the CBT in January unless you’re generally OK with going over at some point during the year. Which is good! This is how the Chicago Cubs should be operating, at a minimum! Yes, there are some consequences to going over (for example, if the Cubs lose some free agents after this season and make them Qualifying Offers, the draft pick they net would be only after the 4th round, rather than the 2nd), but that alone can’t be a reason to sit on your hands and avoid landing players like Alex Bregman. Slight caveat here: it’s at least plausible that the Cubs could get far enough under the CBT this offseason to stay under during the year (if they dealt Nico Hoerner or Colin Rea or something like that), but I neither expect nor endorse that approach. It means … Alex Bregman is instantly one of the leaders in this clubhouse. He is anyway by reputation, but you couple his experience with the deal he just signed with the Cubs’ urgency to land him, and clearly, the Cubs want him to be an integral part of driving the performance of this club. His production should do that, yes, but’s also about what he brings behind the scenes. It isn’t nothing, and the Cubs are betting it’s a lot more than that. It means … The Cubs have the option of dealing Nico Hoerner if they got absolutely bowled over by an offer, but that’s all it is. An option. And if Hoerner walks in free agency after this season, the Cubs won’t be staring down a massive infield gap. That gives them protection, and also a little bit of comfort and confidence if they engage in extension talks with Hoerner. Which would be nice. Moreover, Alex Bregman’s presence affords the Cubs more depth at second base (probably only indirectly, by way of Matt Shaw being able to be a primary back-up there), so maybe Craig Counsell won’t have to push Hoerner too hard (well, Hoerner pushes himself, but you know what I mean). It means … The Cubs have the option of dealing Matt Shaw if they get a reverse-Michael-Busch-trade-like return from some team out there. Again, the Cubs do not have to trade anyone. But at least now they have the option to do so without causing too much pain to the big league roster. That said, Bregman’s presence dramatically upgrades the Cubs’ bench by pushing Shaw, for now, into a utility role on the infield. It can be hard for a young player to develop that way, admittedly, but the potential value is enormous. If you had an average-bat, good-baserunning, good defensive third/second base, passable defensive shortstop on your bench for 300 PAs? Dang, man. That’s very valuable. Longer-term, Bregman’s presence means a long-term future for Shaw at second base with the Cubs is even more plausible. With Alex Bregman in tow, it’s conceivable the Cubs will feel more comfortable risking Hoerner walking, and then Shaw takes over at second base, where some believe his defense will be even better. Whether that’s the Cubs’ “plan” or not, it’s now available and on the table in a way that’s a little easier to see than it was a few days ago. It means … Some extra protection for the offense overall after 2026. Even if Hoerner potentially walking gets the bulk of the attention in relation to the Alex Bregman signing, Hoerner is not the only impending free agent on the offense. There are also Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Carson Kelly. The Cubs can and will do some things internally and externally to preserve and boost the offense, but at least now they have another quality bat carrying over that gap. It means … Some extra protection for the infield overall after 2026. Imagine a world where Hoerner walks in free agency … after the Cubs traded Shaw (or they don’t, but he takes a huge step back). Ope. Right? We have hopes that James Triantos will bounce back, that Pedro Ramirez will keep developing, and that Jefferson Rojas will break out, among other things, but it’s certainly possible that the Cubs’ internal infield picture will be quite fuzzy this time next year. Again, the Cubs can make moves if they have to, but wouldn’t it be nice to feel secure in the group you already have in place juuuuuust in case Hoerner departs, Shaw struggles or is dealt, and the farm doesn’t produce a near-term contributor. It means … A little boost for the belief in Moises Ballesteros’s bat. From the moment the Cubs traded Owen Caissie to the Marlins in the Edward Cabrera deal, the path to everyday at bats as the Cubs’ primary DH was wide open for Ballesteros, given that Seiya Suzuki was then clearly going to start everyday in right field. The catch? If the Cubs did something CRAZY like signing Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker, then Suzuki would go back to DH, and Ballesteros would be blocked in that regard. With Alex Bregman in the fold, though, nothing is going to change with the right field/DH dynamic at this point in terms of external roster moves. The Cubs believe Ballesteros can be a high-quality big league bat in a full-ish-time role in 2026, and the Alex Bregman signing indirectly gives Mo a whole lot of runway to prove he is exactly that. (Side note: watch out for Jonathon Long as the next man up on that front, as now the Cubs can fully and completely convert him to a 1B/LF/DH type, without ever wondering whether he could go back to third base.) It means … The floor for this team’s results in 2026 just raised quite a bit. For one, there’s a lot less downside risk with a veteran star like Bregman than with a sophomore like Shaw. For another, again, the bench just got a whole lot better. The upside to win 95 games is always fantastic – and this team DOES have that potential upside – but I’m at least as interested in the kind of downside protection that makes it very hard for your team to lose 75 games. It means … The Cubs are the on-paper favorite in the NL Central as we sit here today. Look, I know that we say certain things about the Brewers every single year, and every single year they do what they do. I’m not denying that, and I’m certainly not lodging any predictions about how the division will actually play out when the W’s and L’s start adding up. I’m just saying that, reviewing the current rosters and immediate depth, the Cubs are the best team in the division on paper. (That isn’t just about Alex Bregman, by the way, as the trade for Edward Cabrera is kinda baked into it, too.) It means … There’s a clear push to win in 2026, in part because you can make that argument that the Cubs are the best team in the division on paper. When you sign a star like Alex Bregman ahead of his age-32 season, you do it understanding that his best years will tend to come at the front end of that contract. The Cubs were a game away from the NLCS last year, and they clearly believe this is a very urgent near-term window to get another shot like that in 2026. We can debate the extent to which the Cubs are going “all out”, or what that term even means, but they’ve finally pushed in some chips in the way we’ve been begging them to do the last few years. Maybe especially good to see it ahead of 2026, when we don’t know what the labor situation will do to the 2027 season. It means … The heavy lifting for this offseason is probably over. It’s a big push for 2026, yes, but the regulars are all set, the bench is arguably all set, the rotation is all set, the depth is all set, and the bullpen is probably all set. And I like all of those groups. The Cubs can lie in wait and maybe be opportunistic if some crazy bargain becomes available, but, by and large, the front office can now turn its attention to doing the many things that help a club actually prepare for a season, win games, and succeed long-term. Work on the farm system, work on extensions, work on hiring, work on technology, etc. It means … We can rethink the kinds of things the Cubs are willing and able to do in free agency. This Alex Bregman deal, in addition to being something the Cubs don’t usually do, is a massive AAV contract that pushes the payroll up significantly over a five-year period. What I want to believe is that it is reflective of the baseball operations budget continuing to grow, and significant free agent signings don’t have to be a once-or-twice-in-a-decade kind of thing. That said, it’s entirely possible this was a one-off situation, where the right guy was available at the right time, and with so much money coming off the books after 2026 – ahead of a possible work stoppage – it represents only a temporary boost in spending. We can’t know what’s what on that front just yet, since we’ll need multiple years of data. But at least we can think about it now in a way that seemed silly just a few days ago. It means … A lot more. The guys on the roster feel all the more supported. Probably energized, too. The front office is probably pumped. Other players out there in baseball see that the Cubs are indeed willing to really push. Alex Bregman probably boosts some other players at the margins, especially younger players, in a dozen tiny ways. The fans can justifiably be very excited ahead of Cubs Convention. I could keep going. I have to stop somewhere. I’m sure many more things will come to me this week. The implications are as plentiful as the signing is exciting. The Cubs have done a very good thing. And that means a lot. © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2026/01/12/alex-bregman-meaning/
