Meant to post this here yesterday. Viewpoint we posted a few days ago for subscribers, but have decided to post without the paywall. Check it out! www.fastmarkets.com/insights/doe...

Can imagine some things shaking out inflation dynamics in the coming months but for the time being inflation looks to be headed toward 2% as lags and quirks fall out of the 12-month window. Lags in housing and wages + stock market outperformance account for 45 of the remaining 55bp overshoot

If the tariff is on fabricated steel, double those numbers.

A 20% tariff on mill steel, after all shipping, fabrication, delivery and labor for installation is = 5% cost increase on structural steel installed. That is = to 0.5% increase to total building final cost.

So how much are these steel and aluminum tariffs gonna add to construction costs @edzarenski.bsky.social?

First time posting my actual work on Bluesky. I updated my Lumber & Logs charts last night, with 2023 FAO stats. 🧵 Starting with Softwood Lumber Production...

JOLTS: 1/ Tentative evidence that labor market stabilization may be underway. Hires and quits haven't fallen much since late summer. We've had headfakes like this before so I'm cautious, but stabilization is my baseline for 2025 (this is Dec 2024 data).

Good summary on the agricultural commodities impacted if 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico do happen. Yours truly also makes a late appearance! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Key takeaway from today seems to be that team "Trump isn't serious about tariffs" probably right. All the bluster and grief directed at Canada just to turn around and punt on tariffs when Canada largely just reaffirmed pledges from December seems pretty telling. What am I missing?

BREAKING: US tariffs on Canada paused for 30 days, Trudeau says

So what's going on with crypto, you guys?

So when's he walking it all back? Seems like the next logical question?

If there is any doubt that tariffs are passed through to consumers, the cost of propane to heat my house just went up by the amount of the tariff

Groupings might need to be tweaked a bit, but US economic policy in a nutshell rn.

Homebuilders are going to be super rattled by these tariffs and knock-on effects in rate markets. Builders are already facing a ton of margin pressure, but surging wood products and other building materials prices in response to tariffs only going to make matters worse.

On vacation, just seeing this now.

Deacon Lumber sighting in Barbados. Bullish @lumber.trading ?

Wtf is DeepSeek, you guys.

Every non-Chiefs fan rn: "The Chiefs will never get a bad call against them again in my lifetime"

Lumber might be taking a back seat this week, you guys.

Astounded how little security buying there's been in the lumber market these last few weeks. Very few US traders believe 25% tariffs Feb 1. That's probably true, but given there's been almost no buffer inventory built, odds of tariffs hitting seem mispriced.

Man, didn't realize Melania was such a big Sergio Leone fan!

Ngl, the cryptobois panic setting in on the other site is pretty fun to watch.

Lions cooked.

Don't know how they solve it, but seems like the NFL needs to sort out the rules for QBs rushing. Defender is basically helpless with how low the bar is for personal fouls.

Loooooool...this one gonna tie people in a pretzel.

No strong convictions on today's report. Lots of crosscurrents and the winter months are volatile. Take this report with a grain of salt, whatever the outcome. Under construction probably the most interesting data point on the state of the multifamily correction.

Housing starts today. I know, I'm excited too...could this be the most important December housing print ever? 🤔 (Probably not but needed to build it up somehow)

Tough times ahead for Canada...ooof.

HMI up in January. Mixed subcomponents, but definitely bucking some of the bearish outlook on housing.

Building material sales though? Looks like the September-November bounce was probably more a hurricane/weather story. Proxy for volume turning over as well as building material inflation pretty muted now.

Truly incredible. We're so back.

Retail sales cookin.

Biggest drop in 10y real yields since 2023.

Here's a few PPI Inputs for 2024 vs 2023 Concrete Products +6% Paving Mixes +2% Steel Products -8% Lumber/Plywood -2% Gypsum Products +3% Asphalt Roofing/Siding +3% Nonferrous Wire +4% Diesel -15%

March lumber futures still getting hammered here.

if it makes you feel better, this was the visualization when I read that at some point Tariff Man gonna think market is wrong though

PPI #inflation: BELOW expectations in Dec despite gas price spike ✅Headline #PPI +0.2% m/m 📉Core +0.1% m/m ✅Goods 0.6% 🍲Food -0.1% ⛽️Energy 3.5% (gas +9.7%) 📊Core 0% ✅Services 0% 🚚Transport 2.2% ⚖️Trade (margins) -0.1% ✅Inflation not reaccelerating (yet)

Vikings frauds?

2/ INVENTORY ➡️ Total supply of unsold homes on the market ticked down this week to 624,000. I expect uptick next week ➡️ 24% more homes on the market than last year. ➡️ Only 19% fewer than in 2018. Especially if rates stay elevated, you can see how we'll approach the old normal levels later this year

Rates + cash basis > Tariff risks for lumber at the moment.

If you have basic clock management skills in the NFL, you are probably in the top quartile of coaches in the NFL.

Dan Quinn 🤡🤡🤡

There are way too many NFL wildcard teams.

👀

Return to tradition for the Chargers amirite.

Matthew McConaughey down horrendous.