In Rhode Island, ICE arrested an intern who worked for a court, and then a judge intervened to say they had the wrong person. All leading to a scene where ICE agents surrounded the judge's car and "threatening to smash in the windows if they did not comply." www.wfla.com/news/judge-i...

This story is nuts. "ICE agents then surrounded the judge’s car and demanded everyone to exit the vehicle, threatening to smash in the windows if they did not comply."

They are so funny. Our neighbors are being stuffed into unmarked vans, and they’re all like let’s vote against a term we probably can’t define instead.

Hungary’s Orban seemed undefeatable a year ago. Then Peter Magyar broke through with a powerful anti-corruption platform, rapidly consolidated the fractured opposition, and now leads Fidesz comfortably. Anti-corruption defeats authoritarianism worldwide. It will work here, too.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Imagine looking around America in 2025 and thinking, "What we need less of is morality."

"Anti-corruption politics builds coalitions across the ideological spectrum: progressives, centrists, disaffected conservatives, and most importantly, people who have checked out of politics because they think both parties are corrupt," says @adambonica.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/2030...

Moderation as a strategy, "It's tapped out. There are no gains left to be had. ....I see anti-corruption as this very open lane for realignment," says @adambonica.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/2030...

In polls "corruption shows up higher in terms of people's concerns than even affordability. If you were a party that said, "We see the problem, we have a plan on how to fix it," that would be a really strong message," says @adambonica.bsky.social. newrepublic.com/article/2030...

"Corruption is the Achilles' heel of authoritarians," says @adambonica.bsky.social, explaining why opposing corruption (including the legal kind) should be the center of anti-Trump/Democratic politics. So many insights here. newrepublic.com/article/2030...

In the OpEd written by the arrested minister:

ALL OF THIS

8/🧵 And there's motivated reasoning everywhere. Conservatives want to believe they're winning the youth. Centrist Dems think the party needs to move right. Some progressives fear we're doomed. Consultants want to enter new expensive ad markets. Everyone finds anecdotes confirming their assumptions.

7/🧵 The loudest voices aren't the most representative. Every generation has extremists, but social media amplifies fringe movements beyond their size. A handful of young white nationalists create viral moments that crowd out broader trends. We mistake the exception for the rule.

6/🧵 Why does conventional wisdom miss this? We confuse electoral swings with attitude changes. Gen Z shifted 6 points toward Trump in 2024, suddenly pundits say they're "the most conservative generation in 50 years." Only 42% of Gen Z voted. We mistake turnout shifts for ideological transformation.

5/🧵 Race divides the Democratic Party more than it does Republicans. Young Republicans remain almost as racially resentful as older Republicans. But among Democrats and independents, massive shifts. White Gen Z independents have lower racial resentment than Boomer Democrats.

4/🧵 The generational shift isn't just among white Americans. Young Asian and Hispanic Americans show the same pattern: dramatic declines in racial resentment across education, gender, geography, and religion. This is a broad, multi-racial generational transformation.

3/🧵 This generational trend is consistent across every demographic subgroup you can imagine. Non-college Gen Z men? Lower racial resentment than college-educated elder Millennials. The pattern holds across gender, geography, and religion. Young men and women are moving in tandem.

2/🧵 New piece with @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social in @NewRepublic: We analyzed 60,000+ respondents in the 2024 Cooperative Election Study. Gen Z has the lowest racial resentment of any generation. The generational shift overwhelms the education divide that supposedly defines modern politics.

Those claiming Dems should retreat on racial justice aren't hard-headed realists, they're pushing against the electoral tide rather than leaning into it. The story of Gen Z isn't about racist backlash or red-pilled young men. It's the most racially progressive generation in American history. 🧵

Kind of wild that while food assistance was withheld from millions of families, one Trump-supporting billionaire (Ellison) saw his net worth grow more this year than the entire SNAP budget. And the YTD gains of the other four richest men would’ve fully covered salaries for all 2M federal employees.

"The Hungarian story doesn’t have to be the American story. But ... Dems must demonstrate they can stand strong against Republican attempts to inflict suffering. Not b/c suffering is virtuous, but b/c it’s the only language of power in a hostage situation. The civil rights movement understood this."

"The Democratic base understands what’s at stake. Grassroots activists, organizers, and voters have shown they’re willing to fight. ... Until Democratic leaders can be made to fear cowardice more than they fear Republicans, the pattern will continue." Every line in this piece is worth reading 👇

The Compassion Trap: How the Shutdown Weaponized Democratic Values Against Democracy Itself data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-compas...

Cowards gonna coward.

basic problem is none of these folks is capable of saying “i was wrong”

Justice KBJ is a brilliant strategist. She is working the rules to compel timely review of the stay in the SNAP case by both the Circuit Court and by the Supreme Court. This is why knowing which SCOTUS justice has supervision of the Circuit you file in is essential. www.reuters.com/world/us/usd...

SNAP benefits are currently being held hostage by the Trump administration and their fate now lies with the Supreme Court. Beneath the legal arguments are real people who simply need food—a former federal worker, a single mother of 4, a disabled man. I spoke to them. Here are their stories:

I think this take on the sandwich guy trial is correct. our system is built assuming that prosecutors will show appropriate restraint. the sandwich guy case went on for way too long and that in and if itself should be raising alarm bells www.lawfaremedia.org/article/sand...

what's there to say, really?

Dem Leadership should take note!

The next Democratic president can fix the evergreen government shutdown crisis: "It’s a systematic disadvantage they must fix when they have the power to do so ... No negotiation. No compromise. Just restore the system that worked for a century." Read: data4democracy.substack.com/p/why-americ...

It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me

I’ll keep pushing this line of analysis because I’m increasingly convinced the clearest path out of this mess is for Dems to adopt a relentless anti-corruption, anti-inequality, anti-oligarchy, pro-democracy platform. The Dem leadership hasn’t realized it yet, but they’re now a reform party.

So proud of the students who led Stanford's 5th Democracy Day yesterday. "Where democracy sprouts, university students are seldom far from its source. Search for democracy’s turning points—from Prague to Seoul, from Soweto to Santiago—and the pattern repeats: students move first, nations follow."

Have you voted yet?

Fantastic article explaining why candidates can no longer outrun their party. @leedrutman.bsky.social is absolutely right, electoral reform is needed to break the two party doom loop and he has a clear plan. In the short run, Dems can break out of the left-right frame by running on anti-corruption.

“Deciding to Win' also displays little awareness of what winning elections is for. There is an obvious reason why the Democratic Party ought not abandon its commitment to preventing the climate crisis," writes @davekarpf.bsky.social. Excellent piece. newrepublic.com/article/2023...

It’s a sign of the times that the people who funded the WelcomePAC report that’s telling Democrats they are “out of touch” with ordinary Americans are mostly billionaires, hedge fund managers, VCs, and corporate execs.

California – this Election Day, vote yes on Prop 50. California’s Prop 50 says that if Republicans are going to abuse the system to try and hang onto power, we’re going to counteract that abuse and create a level playing field in the midterm elections. Make a plan to vote yes on Prop 50.

This is brutal

Yep

If you are reading this piece today, you may be interested to know that I found Adam Bonica on moderate candidates compelling. Ht @hakeemjefferson.bsky.social data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...

If I were a betting man—like Nate is—I’d put my money on Grumbach and Bonica every time. Bonica is famously a very modest guy, so he won’t say this, but it’s wild he still has to explain basic stats to people who think they’re his equals and then they still speak w/ such certainty. Just crazy stuff.

The NYT editorial board told Democrats that they must discard populism be more “centrist” to win. Stanford’s @adambonica.bsky.social ran the data that the NYT used and shows that the entire premise is false.

Felt like the right time to re-read this: “Movements that abandon their core supporters in pursuit of mythical moderate voters often end up with neither … the authentic moral voice that might actually persuade the persuadable gets replaced by calculated positioning that convinces no one.”

The dream of every Muslim is simply to be treated the same as any other New Yorker. And yet, for too long, we have been told to ask for less than that, and endure hatred and bigotry in the shadows. No more.

NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is. Very proud of my pal’s public work. open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

One tactic these data guys use online is to dismiss academic work they don’t like by calling it “overly complex” or “disconnected from reality.” I call this anti-rigor propaganda. It’s a move to sour people on serious scholarship when you don’t have better evidence. Adam addresses it in the piece.

“The Democratic Party is building its comeback strategy on this premise. If the premise is wrong, the strategy will fail—and they can’t afford to get this wrong. The stakes are too high for wishful thinking. The data tells a different story than their editorial suggests, and Dems need to hear it.”

SNAP benefits expire in one week.