Prediction markets have been wildly wrong in the past - but they do hold some value as a source of information. Current expectations for a #cdnpoli election being triggered this year: 6%. The spike in October was right around when Fred DeLorey published his infamous piece :)

This seems important.

What’s odd to me is that people (specially this PBO who should know better), seem to forget why we do care about our credit rating and debt-to-GDP ratio and all: To have room for maneuver in the face of crisis! Like today!!! As he says in his letter: Future challenges! We ARE facing one!

Buried in yesterday’s PBO report on #Budget2025 An admission from Jason Jacques that his past commentary about Canada’s finances being unsustainable WAS WRONG “current fiscal policy in Budget 2025 would be deemed sustainable” The more you know. #cdnpoli

Our polling www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-exc... Our analysis www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit... Our pod on major projects www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... #cdnpoli #abpoli #bcpoli

As mentioned in this week’s MBP Intelligence pod, there’s an interesting amendment to C-5 buried in #Budget2025. To make clear how projects support 🇨🇦s climate goals. It reinforces & aligns with the public’s expectation that we not only build faster - but build right. Links below #cdnpoli #abpoli

As mentioned in this week’s MBP Intelligence pod, there’s an interesting amendment to C-5 buried in #Budget2025. To make clear how projects support 🇨🇦s climate goals. It reinforces & aligns with the public’s expectation that we not only build faster - but build right. Links below #cdnpoli #abpoli

🎙️🎧 MBP Intelligence Ep 7 This week we look at how C-5 and Major Projects Office is turning out unexpected. Not just faster process but a concierge service. And the policy implications of D’Entremont crossing (there are some) www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... #cdnpoli #abpoli #bcpoli

Very sad to see this news of the passing of Tom Courchene. Tom was a professor, a mentor, partial thesis supervisor and the intellectual coach who helped me get my big break into the think tank world. One of 🇨🇦’s most prolific & cross cutting thinkers. cdhowe.org/publication/...

It’s a time to build yet only 13% are willing to cut corners to build. The vast vast majority are persuadable. They want both urgency and integrity in what’s built and how. It’s a time to persuade. Learn more in this essay based on our polling. #cdnpoli www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit...

The story I have received the most interview requests for in 2025? Fucking ostriches. I did one early on, about the unlikelihood that the SCC would hear an appeal. And then an avalanche of requests for two months, all for one of the least important stories you can imagine. #Journalism

I wish Ben was on here. He was a Tory, but very approachable

Two minutes of ostriches… 24 seconds of jobs. Yikes.

I hope to never hear about those damned ostriches ever again.

On Friday’s CBC The National ostriches occupied the number 3 report segment, getting about 2 minutes and 30 seconds of coverage. The Statcan jobs report which came out the same day? 24 seconds. Make of this what you will. #cdnpoli

A reminder that in the most recent federal election most people still got the vast plurality of their news from mainstream media. So, as much as fact checking is critical, just because something is a thing online doesn’t mean it has to be chased. Serious issues matter. #cdnpoli

Since #Budget2025 was tabled @mark-carney.bsky.social’s lead on the Conservatives has grown from 4 to 8 points. The LPC lead is now statistically significant - by 14 points in Ontario - by 10 points in BC #cdnpoli

Gross. Meta is running advertorials in The Hub - and you wouldn’t know unless you read the byline. For shame, @thehubcanada.bsky.social

🚨 A nearly 90-min deep dive on all the implications of #Budget2025 with the always excellent @jrobson.bsky.social Ben Woodfinden and @davidherle.bsky.social Defence, housing, climate, fiscal policy etc YouTube youtu.be/CwMRTCUjCmU?... #cdnpoli

New polling is in for #Budget2025 (c/o Innovative) Not a bad outing. And more popular than all but 2 of the last 14 years. But the Covid recovery budget of 2021 was most popular. Harper’s cut of OAS budget was more unpopular than last year’s capital gains fight. #cdnpoli

Just recorded a convo on the budget with @tylermeredith.bsky.social & Ben Woodfinden for the always thoughtful and generous @davidherle.bsky.socialon #HerleBurly. 3 things I wish I had said: 1) The taxes cut on luxury boats, planes and underused homes should be seen a piece. It's "capital spending"

Since 3:30pm yesterday, Canada’s benchmark bond rate has moved… 1 basis point. Markets are very comfortable with Mark Carney’s generational investment plan. Well done François-Philippe Champagne #cdnpoli #budget2025

Swing and a big miss by National Bank’s forecast team. #cdnpoli

Today’s forecast #Budget2025 deficit for 2025-26 of about $78 billion is slightly smaller in today’s dollars as @stephenharper’s $55.6 billion deficit in 2009-10. The more you know. #cdnpoli

What we are watching for later today in #Budget2025 Me - the debt management strategy and how we sell this generational investment to the world in an increasingly competitive debt market. #cdnpoli www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/what-to...

Was one of the guests on West of Centre this week - the CBC’s Alberta Politics podcast - with @jaredwesley.ca and @colinaitchison.bsky.social Check it out on Apple or Spotify…and subscribe. The gang at CBC Calgary are doing good work over there. podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/w...

In advance of Tuesday’s likely historic #Budget2025 here is my 3 part, 9,000-word series on Carneynomics Part 1: www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit... Part 2: www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/merdiss... Part 3: www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit... Excited to see what the doc brings. #cdnpoli

There is a view among some parts of Corp 🇨🇦 that no deal #cusma is not acceptable. News flash: that’s where we are. And it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Now we must act to control the things we can. More on this week’s MBP Intel pod: www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... #cdnpoli #trade

On this week’s episode of MBP Intelligence we look at: 📈 Our new polling on what Canadians want on major projects 🇨🇦🇨🇳🇺🇸 The reality of a No Deal trade outcome 💪 The future of section 107 in labour negotiations and AB’s use of the notwithstanding clause Links below #cdnpoli #cusma #canlab

This is an important editorial for Canadians to read and digest. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

NEW POLL: We know Canadians think it’s a time to build, and build faster. But how do they see the trade offs & opportunities on C-5? Revealing findings on: — Enviro review — Unionization of projects — Indigenous engagement — Enviro offsets www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-exc... #cdnpoli #c5

I would wildly guess that Canadians would not see this as a failure. www.politico.com/news/2025/10...

NEW POLL: We know Canadians think it’s a time to build, and build faster. But how do they see the trade offs & opportunities on C-5? Revealing findings on: — Enviro review — Unionization of projects — Indigenous engagement — Enviro offsets www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-exc... #cdnpoli #c5

Alberta’s now the first jurisdiction to use the notwithstanding clause to take away the right to collective bargaining. The kids will go back to school tomorrow -but what’s the future for workers’ rights across Canada? I wrote about that here: mbpintelligence.com/blog/phillips-…

Just in time for Alberta’s possible back to work legislation — here’s @sphillipsab.bsky.social on the potential national implications for unions, governments and businesses of this next iteration of labour law fights + the right to strike www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/phillip... #cdnpoli #abpoli

🚨NEW: here is part 3 of my multi-part (and evergreen) long form essay on Carneynomics — how fiscal and economic policy is changing. The last before #Budget2025 A combined 8,000+ word deep dive analysis — more detailed than anywhere. Part 3: www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit... #cdnpoli

Friday I had a chance to speak to Aarti Pole at CBC News about how the interpret the then breaking news about Trump’s suspension of trade talks with Canada over a bruised ego (I mean: a factual ad). #cdnpoli #cdntrade #cusma www.cbc.ca/player/play/...

Apple: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/m... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4gk3... Amazon: music.amazon.ca/podcasts/bf5...

🎧 If you’re looking for a podcast NOT ABOUT TRUMP - you’ll want to dig into our latest: ▶️ this week’s pre-#Budget2025 speech 🚢 Industrial policy & doubling exports outside the US 🏗️ Restructuring housing policy 🗳️ Calgary election +more www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... #cdnpoli #yyc

Check out the latest pod www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... Apple: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/m... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/4gk3... Amazon: music.amazon.ca/podcasts/bf5...

🎙️🎧 As we approach #Budget2025 people need to remember that it’s not one vote but many over months, with likely a very large set of budget implementation measures to be legislated and money to be appropriated. It’s been 18 months since a BIA act. There’s lots to do. #cdnpoli

Donald Trump holds all the cards. He’s such a brilliant negotiator. We must simply deal with him. There is no other way. (Our punditocracy is often terribly misinformed) #cdnpoli

🎙️🎧 As we approach #Budget2025 people need to remember that it’s not one vote but many over months, with likely a very large set of budget implementation measures to be legislated and money to be appropriated. It’s been 18 months since a BIA act. There’s lots to do. #cdnpoli

🎧 If you’re looking for a podcast NOT ABOUT TRUMP - you’ll want to dig into our latest: ▶️ this week’s pre-#Budget2025 speech 🚢 Industrial policy & doubling exports outside the US 🏗️ Restructuring housing policy 🗳️ Calgary election +more www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/mbp-ep-... #cdnpoli #yyc

Mark Carney, speaking before the start of a lengthy trip to Asia, said Canada can’t control US trade policy but is ready to negotiate any time. Said for now, he is focused on seeking new partnerships overseas and preparing the federal budget.

CARNEYNOMICS - Part 2: In this 2nd instalment of my long form essay on Carneynomics, I explore the significant impacts of what a small change in the fiscal calendar will do to how government works, the fiscal baseline and what all that means. www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/merdiss... #cdnpoli

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Today Finance Minister Champagne outlined some much needed action to combat fraud. The creation of the Canada Financial Crimes Agency, combined with 1,000 new RCMP officers is decisive and much needed. I spoke to CBC News about it all. cbc.ca/player/play/... #cdnpoli #crime

Justin Trudeau governed for almost 10 years. Keir Starmer has crashed and burned a super majority in just over 1. There are many reasons behind that but one that’s important is mandate. Starmer had no plan - just that he wasn’t Tory. That lasts a nanosecond. #cdnpoli