📈IMF April WEO📉: If the Middle East conflict remains short-lived, global growth is down to 3.1 percent in 2026 - and inflation up to 4.4 percent. More adverse impacts are possible, especially if energy supply dislocations extend into next year.

In my experience, people are generally comfortable with the concept of real (const. price) GDP controlling for price differences across time. But even many with econ training are confounded by real (PPP) GDP controlling for price differences across space.

The global economy continues to show resilience in the face of the tariff shock - but risks are rising. Summary of today’s IMF World Economic Outlook update: www.imf.org/en/blogs/art...

Trade JMCs: Each year, I compile a list of international-trade job-market papers. To make sure you're on my list (& save me some work), please reply with your info in the following format: Firstname Surname (School) - JMP title - homepageURL [Spatial JMCs: reply to other post]

Nan Li, Sergii Meleshchuk, & @zymek.bsky.social introduce the new Bilateral Trade in Services (BiTS) database, which tracks services flows between countries over time and at the detailed sector level. They document a declining distance elasticity for services trade. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

CEPR today released a new eBook on “The State of Globalisation” (edited by @baldwinre.bsky.social and Michele Ruta). It explores how technology, policy and geopolitics are transforming globalisation: cepr.org/voxeu/column...

📈IMF April WEO📉: 2025 global growth forecast would have been 3.2% pre-April 2 (down just 0.1 from January). It is 2.8% given the post-April 2 trade policy announcements. Even if all “tariff pauses” become permanent, global growth remains at 2.8% (but differently distributed across countries).

I stand corrected. The formula is not deficit/imports. The formula is surplus/(imports * ε * φ), where ε = -4 and φ = 0.25. That happens to equal deficits/imports. ustr.gov/issue-areas/... via @ericadyork.bsky.social

🚨New data alert! A beta version of the Global Tariff Database is now available! 🔗https://feodorateti.github.io 🔎If you're looking for cross-country data on bilateral tariffs, this might help you.

1/ 📢 New paper alert! 📄 Together with Vitalii Tubdenov, we propose a measure of the "Average Period of Production" (APP) to capture the temporal dimension of production processes. It is inspired by Böhm-Bawerk’s capital theory.

Today marks the 180th anniversary of the birth of great Irish/Oxford economist Francis Ysidro Edgeworth. Most remembered now by students for the Edgeworth Box, he was the founding editor of the Economic Journal and is buried less than 400 feet from the Economics Dept with a beautiful Celtic cross.

Trade talks is back! Scientific insights on trade: tradetalkspodcast.com

Nice chart by @chrisgiles.ft.com putting the scale of President Trump‘s tariff announcements in historical context. www.ft.com/content/c2e4...

The adverse effects of trade and globalization have become politically salient in a way that many of the other determinants of inequality have not. | Trade and Inequality | The IFS-Deaton Review | all open access | academic.oup.com/ooec/article...

Modern supply chains don't look like trade theory 101! They involve constant border crossings, each now hit by tariffs. Tariffs raise prices, but the more important thing they do is disrupt supply relationships. 1/

New at JIE: "Changing global linkages: A new Cold War?" by Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (@pgourinchas.bsky.social), Andrea F. Presbitero, Petia Topalova https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104042

CALL FOR PAPERS! What: Workshop on Growth, Trade and Geography Where: BSE Summer Forum, Barcelona When: June 10-11, 2025 Submission Deadline: February 28, 2025 events.bse.eu/live/files/5... I hope to see many of you there!!! Please circulate!

“That will require transformational reforms to lift productivity. In many countries, resources—including workers and capital—simply aren't flowing to the most dynamic firms, dragging average global productivity growth down by 0.6 percentage points annually.” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

I used to teach the history of the gravity equation in trade - but was oblivious to the long history of gravity in urban/spatial economics (until I worked on gravity and the spread of Covid-19 with Ale Cuñat: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...)

Hello @bsky.app, here's to looking into more #bluesky and beyond... 😉

🚨New dataset alert 🚨Explore a large-scale survey of US respondents on how inflation has impacted them as consumers, workers, and asset holders. 📊 Includes rich open-ended responses and questions about emotions 👉 socialeconomicslab.org/research/pub...

Last Sunday Mario Draghi delivered a forceful speech, arguing that Europe has fallen into a vicious cycle of weak domestic demand, insufficient macroeconomic stimulus, depressed investment and low productivity growth cepr.org/system/files.... Here's a 🧵 on recent research related to this view.

Soaring Abuse of “National Security” Exceptions Has Wrecked the Multilateral Trading System My latest CFR Geo-Graphics blog post . . . on.cfr.org/3ZZRTc6

What will be the economic impact if the EU pursues its goals for EV adoption and allows China to capture a big share of the EU car market? Jiaxiong Yao and I provide some answers in this F&D article: www.imf.org/en/Publicati... (non-technical; gory details here: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...)

Back in Barcelona for a special occasion: the 30th anniversary of CREI @upfbarcelona.bsky.social 🎉 I owe a huge debt to the people here for teaching us, by example and with much patience, what good research in international economics can look like. We need it now more than ever!

I am very excited about this paper we wrote with Jack Rossbach: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

By 2035, the European Union (EU) wants all new cars bought in its borders to be electric vehicles (EVs). But could rising EV imports from China pose a threat for the economy? In new IMF research we quantify this tradeoff: imf.org/en/Publication…#EVsV#ElectricVehicleses

Check out the new issue of the IMF’s F&D magazine for insights on boosting productivity growth from a range of amazing contributors! 📈 And if you need a little explainer on why (macro)economists care about productivity, and why you should too, this B2B has you covered: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...