It looks like the RNC has named the members of the Presidential Nominating Process Committee for the 2028 cycle. That standing committee will examine and recommend changes to the nomination rules over the next (up to) nine months. www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...

there's a lot of attention right now on narratives about election victories/losses so this is your reminder that @smotus.bsky.social and I both have written books on this subject 1/

Feeling overwhelmed? Despair? Unending urgency? My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵 1/6

Happy (official) publication day to one of my favorite projects ever! tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations

Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p... And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi... We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...

Today at GP/BP: Yeah 2024 for the Dems was mostly just a normal losing year, not a reason for panic. Still looks like a reasonably healthy party to me. And fighting over the next nomination can be part of how healthy parties work. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Free preview at FHQ+... DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028 www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...

Got a book you all are going to love, just a few weeks now until it's available press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

New at FHQ... "DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month" www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...

A nice write up from my co-author about our article exploring the growing connection between presidents and congressional candidates.

Atrocious political reporting by @nytimes.com & reflective of their anecdotal approach to politics. The biggest reason Trump won was because of decades-high inflation. That they'd place tactical decisions by @kamalaharris.com above that structural explanation is both wrong & disgraceful.

Just ahead of the movie's 40th anniversary next month.

May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon. Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But... www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...

Good morning, election data nerds! Here's a Monday morning present for you: we've finished updating our county-level presidential election results dataset to include 2024. The full dataset (covering 2000-2024) is now available on our Dataverse: buff.ly/eUGYc1h

Free preview at FHQ+: Are the Iowa caucuses coming back to the early Democratic presidential nomination process? www.fhqplus.com/p/are-the-io...

Now out at Presidential Studies Quarterly, we find that the public’s understanding of party politics is becoming more president‐centric, which significantly influences the perceptions of candidates. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

NEW AT FHQ: Iowa Democrats plot 2028 comeback for caucuses www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/07/iowa...

And yet another potential 2028 candidate is coming here. We’ll have had visits by Wes Moore, Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, and Ro Khanna. www.postandcourier.com/politics/and...

The Iowa-specific part of this is immaterial. [The Hawkeye state is very unlikely to (officially) go first (or even in the early window on the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination calendar.] But... www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

The hush campaign of the invisible primary.

Clyburn praises Newsom as he hits the trail in South Carolina: ‘I feel good about his chances’ Newsom’s two-day swing through rural stretches of the state previews a likely 2028 campaign. This is the event I was at last night.

A central problem for Musk’s 3rd party, which my collaborators and I empirically demonstrated more than a decade ago, is that people in the middle are deeply divided among themselves. A public-facing explanation is here www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/o...

A 🧵 comparing polls on the Big Beautiful Bill and other big first term legislative initiatives After the House passed the 2017 tax bill, the public was opposed 53-29.

Well said

🧵:

Free preview from FHQ Plus today... The 2028 Democratic primary calendar and the recent DNC committee appointments Contextualizing the recent moves. www.fhqplus.com/p/the-2028-d...

Missed that yesterday was the 50th anniversary of the passage of New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation law. www.seacoastonline.com/story/news/2...

While this piece notes that the elimination of the spring primary in Wisconsin would shift the presidential primary in the Badger state to the fall (and after the national conventions) that would not actually be the result of the consolidation. 1/ www.jsonline.com/story/news/p...

Trump’s dramatic, unauthorized cuts to federal government are an executive power grab, I argue at @misofact.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

i had to feed the take machine and write about the Biden 2024 discourse - we're missing a good opportunity to actually think about the presidency, president-centered parties, and media frames that center individuals rather than institutions goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/were-learn...

ICYMI - i wrote a bit of a meta-take on how to think about Trump's first vs. second terms. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/how-differ...

Sure, one has to scroll down to the fifth paragraph, but I appreciated Politico adding this quote to their story about Buttigieg's stop in Iowa. A trip to the Hawkeye state is not without consequence, but Iowa ain't the first state anymore. www.politico.com/news/2025/05...

As the Cornyn-Paxton TX primary heats up, it's a good time to report that my paper with Gall O. Sigler, "Not of Primary Concern: Assessing Ideological Voting over Time in U.S. Primaries, 2008-2024" has been accepted by @polbehavior.bsky.social. URL: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Here's a 🧵... 1/

It has likely been said, but "trade deals" are to Trump II what "infrastructure week" was to Trump I.

This is a great piece by Julia. And it is right on. If one rewinds to 2009-10, there were a rash of Republican efforts across the country to close primaries, shift modes of nomination (from primary to caucus) for races up and down the ballot, etc. Purity tests for "true" Republicans.

New @jenvictor.bsky.social asks how much authoritarian action the US has seen under Trump, and what type, using events from @olgalautman.bsky.social ‘s Trump Tyranny Tracker. Answer: quite a bit, but not necessarily the type of autocracy that’s widely felt. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

I mean, Kemp has ambitions higher than the Senate. Progressing through the calculus of choosing which path to take is tough anyway, but there are currently some additional uncertainties that are involved on the Republican side that have not been in past electoral cycles.

The latest attempt to shift Nebraska's electoral vote allocation method to winner-take-all seems to have failed. ...again. nebraskademocrats.org/blog/ndp-pre...

This is one thing I agree with Stephen A. Smith on: leaving doors open helps with ventilat... Oh, he's talking about running for president. Yeah, no. This has been a persistent story all year long in the non-traditional "press" but every so often an outlet like Politico decides to give it oxygen.

Trump claimed a mandate to ignore a judge and deport people without due process. I put this in a little bit of historical context. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/is-it-alwa...

Harris may or may not run in 2028. I don't know that I'd bet on that either way. However, I would be inclined to place a wager on there being a thermostatic response to the Trump administration. I don't know the extent of it, but I'm fairly confident in the direction. abcnews.go.com/Politics/lon...

The last time the Democratic Party's favorability rating was this low was exactly 8 years ago, after Trump won. But there's more to it -- there are longer-term trends driving down views of the Democratic Party. (1/3) civiqs.com/results/favo...

Hat tip this week to Pete Buttigieg, Rahm Emanuel and Gavin Newsom for knocking Stephen A. Smith out of my 2028/Democrats Google alerts. Oh wait. Can always count on The Hill. thehill.com/homenews/adm...

538-style poll collection has now been recreated by a small group of fans and former staff. all fully transparent and public now. return of live public aggregation is imminent docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

This⤵️

I want to take this opportunity to say: Research is hard, especially when studying complex systems like politics that are constantly changing. None of us are immune to missing something or drawing a bad inference. Not everything that’s true now will still be in the future. Show each other grace.

538 and FHQ trace their origins to around the same time period. It has been such a joy to watch it grow into and evolve as an essential resource over the last, gosh, nearly 20 years. I am heartbroken to see it (and their frightfully talented staff) get the axe at ABC.

Important news that should not get lost in the takes about last night's speech. The team at FiveThirtyEight -- the new team, with @gelliottmorris.com leading the analytics side but also with excellent reporters -- has done truly excellent work. A short appreciation thread