New York? On Super Tuesday? It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications? www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...

New York? On Super Tuesday? It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications? www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...

This is a change for Skoufis. He's introduced legislation to consolidate the New York presidential primary with other primaries in June three previous times. Now he's advocating for a Super Tuesday date for the presidential primary. The funny thing is... edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...

Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention. I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries). www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...

Today is a good day to remind you that none of the classic vote studies thought very highly of women's political competence.

Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention. I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries). www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...

Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process. www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...

I mean, technically the Democrats don't have plurality, single-winner primaries in the presidential nomination process now. [This particular push is exclusively aimed at those primaries and not others.]

Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process. www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...

A short thread of observations using Max Andrew's tool to explore the network of relationships revealed in the Epstein estate email cache. @thatsjustlikeyouropinionman.com 🧵 1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim. epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com

For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2 www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...

So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/

My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/

When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results: honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...

I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out. democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...

Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.

But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals). And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends. www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but... www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee met early last week and passed a resolution setting up the process that will guide how early 2028 presidential primary states are selected. Yes, that set a deadline for when state parties can apply for those calendar slots, but... www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

I added the first state with updated data -- Connecticut -- to my election even early vote analysis. I'll post updates to this post throughout the data as more states' data becomes available open.substack.com/pub/michaelm...

Nathan took the assignment seriously. Good thread here.

Read a free sample! It's enough for a citation for sure :)

Yep. Moving MI & NV hinges on whether Dems have unified control. [Neither does now.] GA depends on who is elected SoS (& a GOP SoS could play ball). SC can be shifted anywhere. [Unlike other southern states.] And NH? Well, they are likely going to go first with or without sanction from the party.

The criteria in the draft resolution cited here are consistent with what Chair @kenmartin.bsky.social laid out in an early August interview.

It looks like the RNC has named the members of the Presidential Nominating Process Committee for the 2028 cycle. That standing committee will examine and recommend changes to the nomination rules over the next (up to) nine months. www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/10/rnc-...

there's a lot of attention right now on narratives about election victories/losses so this is your reminder that @smotus.bsky.social and I both have written books on this subject 1/

Feeling overwhelmed? Despair? Unending urgency? My friends feeling this… a few things...🧵 1/6

Happy (official) publication day to one of my favorite projects ever! tldr: Congressional votes on early federal infrastructure policy was influenced by partisan, distributive, and racial considerations

Here's me today on shutdown politics goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/shutdown-p... And here's @mattglassman312.bsky.social mattglassman.substack.com/p/a-strategi... We agree on almost everything, including that a shutdown is mostly a "do something" idea, except our final position...

Today at GP/BP: Yeah 2024 for the Dems was mostly just a normal losing year, not a reason for panic. Still looks like a reasonably healthy party to me. And fighting over the next nomination can be part of how healthy parties work. goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/democrats-...

Free preview at FHQ+... DNC Chair Martin lays out early state checklist for 2028 www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-chair-...

Got a book you all are going to love, just a few weeks now until it's available press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

New at FHQ... "DNC chair says Democrats will start process of setting 2028 primary calendar this month" www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/08/dnc-...

A nice write up from my co-author about our article exploring the growing connection between presidents and congressional candidates.

Atrocious political reporting by @nytimes.com & reflective of their anecdotal approach to politics. The biggest reason Trump won was because of decades-high inflation. That they'd place tactical decisions by @kamalaharris.com above that structural explanation is both wrong & disgraceful.

Just ahead of the movie's 40th anniversary next month.

May as well have some fun with this non-Harris version of the 2028 Democratic presidential trial heat in this way-too-early survey from Echelon. Fun fact: None of the candidates would qualify for delegates because no one reaches the 15% threshold. But... www.newsweek.com/pete-buttigi...

Good morning, election data nerds! Here's a Monday morning present for you: we've finished updating our county-level presidential election results dataset to include 2024. The full dataset (covering 2000-2024) is now available on our Dataverse: buff.ly/eUGYc1h

Free preview at FHQ+: Are the Iowa caucuses coming back to the early Democratic presidential nomination process? www.fhqplus.com/p/are-the-io...

Now out at Presidential Studies Quarterly, we find that the public’s understanding of party politics is becoming more president‐centric, which significantly influences the perceptions of candidates. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

NEW AT FHQ: Iowa Democrats plot 2028 comeback for caucuses www.frontloadinghq.com/2025/07/iowa...

And yet another potential 2028 candidate is coming here. We’ll have had visits by Wes Moore, Tim Walz, Gavin Newsom, Andy Beshear, and Ro Khanna. www.postandcourier.com/politics/and...

The Iowa-specific part of this is immaterial. [The Hawkeye state is very unlikely to (officially) go first (or even in the early window on the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination calendar.] But... www.nbcnews.com/politics/tru...

The hush campaign of the invisible primary.

Clyburn praises Newsom as he hits the trail in South Carolina: ‘I feel good about his chances’ Newsom’s two-day swing through rural stretches of the state previews a likely 2028 campaign. This is the event I was at last night.

A central problem for Musk’s 3rd party, which my collaborators and I empirically demonstrated more than a decade ago, is that people in the middle are deeply divided among themselves. A public-facing explanation is here www.nytimes.com/2013/12/04/o...

A 🧵 comparing polls on the Big Beautiful Bill and other big first term legislative initiatives After the House passed the 2017 tax bill, the public was opposed 53-29.

Well said