Throughout much of the post-reform era, South Carolina has played a unique role early in the Republican presidential nomination process. However, part of what has differentiated the South Carolina primary will be different in 2028. FHQ explains here... www.fhqplus.com/p/winner-take

Throughout much of the post-reform era, South Carolina has played a unique role early in the Republican presidential nomination process. However, part of what has differentiated the South Carolina primary will be different in 2028. FHQ explains here... www.fhqplus.com/p/winner-take

The push to restore the Missouri presidential primary has seen bill after bill fail since the election's elimination in 2022. It hasn't been any different in 2026: the roadblocks are the same. But one amended bill would have some interesting implications if passed. www.fhqplus.com/p/hopping-ba...

The push to restore the Missouri presidential primary has seen bill after bill fail since the election's elimination in 2022. It hasn't been any different in 2026: the roadblocks are the same. But one amended bill would have some interesting implications if passed. www.fhqplus.com/p/hopping-ba...

So grateful to have worked on this project with some very distinguished colleagues--and more importantly, friends. The best kind of research team! #ncpol

Yep. The parties have every incentive in a competitive state to invite unaffiliated voters into the process, especially when the vast majority of them are closet partisans anyway. Voting in the primaries means they are much more likely to (be targeted and subsequently) vote in the general later on.

Look, I don't know whether either Newsom or Harris or both will ultimately formally seek the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. But I do know that the California primary will follow the remainder of the invisible primary and four or five early states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...

The thing is -- and this comes up each cycle -- that Democrats have delegated themselves into a corner on convention sites. There just aren't that many cities that can accommodate all of the delegates. 1/

FHQ takes an expansive look at rules changes Republicans have made (so far) for 2028. First under the microscope? Backdoor winner-take-all delegate allocation. The practice looks to have been shown the door. www.fhqplus.com/p/bye-bye-ba...

FHQ takes an expansive look at rules changes Republicans have made (so far) for 2028. First under the microscope? Backdoor winner-take-all delegate allocation. The practice looks to have been shown the door. www.fhqplus.com/p/bye-bye-ba...

Good piece from Seth. FWIW, ambitious Dems to this point have been behaving as if the 2028 calendar was going to be a traditional one. A disproportionate number of their visits have been to IA, NH, NV & SC (& to some degree MI). Visits to those places still grab attention at this stage. 1/

New at Tusk: Republicans are campaigning in Iowa; Democrats don't know where to go

Good interview. If nothing else, NC Dems replying to the request for proposals from the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee for early state status in 2028 puts the national party on notice that NC Dems intend to be a player for an early primary calendar spot for *future* cycles. But for 2028? 1/

Heading into the weekend, I had some extended thoughts on the recent DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting focused on the 2028 presidential primary calendar. www.fhqplus.com/p/some-addit...

New at FHQ Plus... DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee moves all 12 states vying for early state status for 2028 to next stage State parties will now make in-person presentations to the panel for inclusion in the early window www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-rules-...

New at FHQ Plus... DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee moves all 12 states vying for early state status for 2028 to next stage State parties will now make in-person presentations to the panel for inclusion in the early window www.fhqplus.com/p/dnc-rules-...

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee is halfway through consideration of the 12 state parties that applied for early state status in 2028. All six so far -- DE, NH, IL, IA, MI & GA -- have been approved to make presentations for inclusion at the next RBC meeting. 1/

2028 calendar news from outside the early window: Puerto Rico Democratic Party chair and DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee member announces Puerto Rico will have a Super Tuesday primary in 2028. [The parties decide on the date based on current law in the territory.] www.fhqplus.com/i/151989060/...

An assessment of the pool of states vying for an early slot on the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar ahead of the Rules and Bylaws Committee's first public consideration of them. www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

now in print in the new issue of APSR: Campos and Federico (2026), "A New Measure of Affective Polarization" -->

Appreciate this from @ronbrownstein.bsky.social but... www.cnn.com/2026/01/30/p...

We now know the 12 states that applied with the DNC to be early states in 2028. Many press accounts have focused on the regional aspect of the process, but that makes it all feel a bit too much like a March Madness bracket. It's more involved than that. I explain: www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

We now know the 12 states that applied with the DNC to be early states in 2028. Many press accounts have focused on the regional aspect of the process, but that makes it all feel a bit too much like a March Madness bracket. It's more involved than that. I explain: www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...

Okay, I've read all of the 2028 primary calendar dispatches ahead of today's deadline for state parties to apply to go early in the Democratic presidential nomination process. This piece from The Washington Post is the best of them. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

New at FHQ: Inside Democrats’ Brewing Debate Over Which States Should Vote First in 2028 www.frontloadinghq.com/2026/01/insi...

We have a new survey report out today @civiqs.bsky.social that takes a deep look at how Americans are using AI, whether they like what AI can do, and what their concerns are about the technology. People are responding to AI very seriously. (1/) The report is here: civiqs.com/reports/2025...

My semiannual post that if you are looking for primary documents for a class, check out the American Congress Digital Archives Portal (congressarchives.org), and the Campaign Television Advertisement Project for presidential campaign ads (campaigntvads.org). More documents here (bit.ly/4raCssr)

Some thoughts on what Trump has done in Venezuela and what it might mean for US national security. Caveat: not a Latin America scholar so this is focused on US policy. Clearly huge consequences for Venezuela that others can address. First, despite the buildup, I didn't think Trump would do it. 1/

There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look... www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...

There doesn't seem to be much chance of primary calendar changes on the Republican side for 2028 (not at the front anyway), but there were some notable rules changes among a series of them coming out of the 2024 convention. A closer look... www.fhqplus.com/p/republican...

Nice guest post up at Tusk from @nathankalmoe.bsky.social and @prowag.bsky.social on the results of a @bcburden.bsky.social survey of 2024 national convention delegates from both parties. smotus.substack.com/p/republican...

New York? On Super Tuesday? It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications? www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...

New York? On Super Tuesday? It has happened before and history may repeat itself in 2028. What are the implications? www.fhqplus.com/p/new-york-o...

This is a change for Skoufis. He's introduced legislation to consolidate the New York presidential primary with other primaries in June three previous times. Now he's advocating for a Super Tuesday date for the presidential primary. The funny thing is... edition.cnn.com/2025/12/03/p...

Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention. I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries). www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...

Today is a good day to remind you that none of the classic vote studies thought very highly of women's political competence.

Well, it looks like the team lobbying for RCV in Democratic presidential primaries got what they wanted: attention. I thought the coverage and response was a little uncritical. Not on the merits of RCV, but in terms of getting from A to B (to RCV in the primaries). www.fhqplus.com/p/the-latest...

Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process. www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...

I mean, technically the Democrats don't have plurality, single-winner primaries in the presidential nomination process now. [This particular push is exclusively aimed at those primaries and not others.]

Had a long go at why Democrats might be looking at Michigan as the lead off presidential primary in 2028 and what the selection might signal about the national party's approach to an evolving nomination process. www.fhqplus.com/p/are-democr...

A short thread of observations using Max Andrew's tool to explore the network of relationships revealed in the Epstein estate email cache. @thatsjustlikeyouropinionman.com 🧵 1. There is a tight inner circle, densely connected. Trump is in the near outer rim. epstein-doc-explorer-1.onrender.com

For paid subscribers: A look at how the incentives for Democratic candidate visits to Iowa are likely to change. That has not been fully explored yet. I don't know that I "fully explored" them, but I did take a typically nerdy turn into the 2028 rules as a guide. 2/2 www.fhqplus.com/p/how-long-w...

So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/

My entirely too early assessment of the Senate deal. Still a lot of unknowns but like this shutdown, this deal was a little surprising. open.substack.com/pub/joshhude...

So Iowa likely won't be a sanctioned part of the Democrats' 2028 presidential primary calendar, but candidates keep heading out to the Hawkeye state anyway. The reasons why are pretty clear. 1/

When Nancy Pelosi stepped down as Speaker I was asked to evaluate her time as leader, which was really exciting until the scope and scale of that task began to settle in. Put simply, she is among the greatest speakers in House history. www.degruyterbrill.com/document/doi...

Five Lessons from the 2025 Election Results: honestgraft.substack.com/p/five-lesso...

I have a piece up today in @democracyproject.bsky.social's "100 Ideas" series about populism on the right and left, and it seems particularly relevant now. I hope you'll check it out. democracyproject.org/posts/the-ri...

Since 2015, Trump has never been able to turn out his low-political engagement voters (who are very hard to reach in polls) in elections when his name is not on the ballot. The pattern continues.

But RBC-adopted resolution did a whole lot more. I tackle all of it here (including the language of both that resolution and the official Request for Proposals). And for paid subscribers, I dug deeper into some of the subtext of the RBC meeting and what it portends. www.fhqplus.com/p/now-we-kno...