What a surprise!

Godspeed!

! The high-risk plan to seize Iran’s uranium in a commando raid would require building a runway in Iran and dropping in excavation equipment amid incoming fire. www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

This was month ago. Mind you, he did not mention whose surrender was needed for a deal.

“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.”

As an aside, if New York were really serious about cutting gas use they would not have shut down Indian Point (something I argued at the time that decision was made).

Trump is menacing a military ground operation in Iran. If it's a bluff, he will look ridiculous. If he means it then he is committing American lives and treasure into the further spiralling vortex of mission creep. It's a lose lose.

I've written up the explanation I gave here a few days ago.

Beyond happy talk and tweaking bureaucratic rules, Europe has a very long road ahead if it aims to renew its nuclear industry capacity enough to make a difference. In this piece I and Miles Pomper of MIIS identify the big picture obstacles.

Fair point

U.S. State Department: "We are issuing a WORLDWIDE ADVISORY because everyone hates us and wants to kill us and we have no idea why"

Disagree: Trump's war on Iran is still not the strategic catastrophe that Iraq 2003 was. However, it certainly has the potential to eclipse it soon.

I am so, so enjoying Angine de Poitrine.

So regime change is off the table?

There's rightly a lot of focus on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. But in these waters are also undersea cables that are indispensable to the surrounding countries - and the world. They, too, are now at risk. futureuae.com/en-US/Mainpa...

New Nukesletter this Sunday evening: 7 takeaways from the longest-range use of ballistic missiles in combat to date (March 20, by Iran, against unknown targets in Diego Garcia). panda.substack.com/p/missiles-o...

It doesn't. Taking control of the Strait by force would mean Marines landing to clear the coast which is very difficult as they'd be vulnerable to artillery and drone attack. And you'd have to clear *a lot* of land because those drones and those anti-ship cruise missiles can by 100 miles away.

Wrong. The fact that Iran only fired two missiles yesterday was a message or a warning, not a last gasp.

The war has weakened Iran but when it ends, Iran will continue to have the nuclear material and knowhow, and the regime will still be in place. Iran can still destroy critical energy infrastructure in the gulf and block the Hormuz strait. All Trump did is the mother of all lawn mowings.

If you have developed spacelaunch vehicles wirh even limited throw weight (as Iran has) you have by definition a more than 2000 km capable ballistic missile. And no, Iran wasn't bound by treaty or law to a 2000 km limit. Hence my absence of surprise when the Diego Garcia launch happened

US allies continue their pretzel strategy towards the US war in the Gulf: help the US but avoid the appearance of helping Trump fight his unpopular war.

HAASS: “.. The oil the US is allowing iran to sell is too small to stabilize energy markets, but it is large enough to help iran fight the war & raise its price for ending it. truly misguided.” richardhaass.substack.com/p/michael-du...

The leadership can hold on indefinitely because there's no place for them to go. The Shah and others fled in 1979 because they had houses in France and Switzerland. The choices of the current leadership are fight or die.

The art of the spin: Joint statement from Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan on the Strait of Hormuz. Or, how to be a good ally to the US without looking like you're helping Trump's stupid war. www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/stat...

The reckless campaign against Iran will weaken America’s president. That will make him angry. Be warned: he makes a very bad loser econ.st/4bAtZby

So far, Iran had not engaged in a serious effort to destroy Gulf oil facilities. the attacks were a message about what it could do if the US and Israel escalated. Israel escalated. The Iranian government doesn't usually make hollow threats so expect retaliation and more pain.

Canadian media is fixated on the price of oil but Aluminium is (arguably) Quebec's top export and the prices are also rising due to the Hormuz naval crisis.

Foreign investment inflow into Canada hits the highest level since 2007, per Bloomberg. Suck it Trump.

More evidence. www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Trump believes he is Colonel Jessup.

"Israel urges Iranians to revolt but privately assesses they’ll be ‘slaughtered" www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

It is very much in the economic interest of NATO countries to solve the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but standing with Trump is so politically toxic with their own electorate that they won't do it.

“The Gulf’s authoritarian leaders, close American allies, have long questioned the value of their American security guarantees. Now, they are in the cross hairs of a regional war that their ally, the U.S., started. And complaints about the limited value of American protection are growing louder.”

Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigns over Iran war. x.com/joekent16jan...

The chutzpah of starting an illegal war that your allies didn’t want and then demanding they put their forces in harm’s way to clean up the mess in the Strait of Hormuz is truly breathtaking.

“There is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them” ― Winston Churchill

While the United States may have reallocated some interceptors from South Korea to the Middle East, as of March 12 there remain at least four launchers and the AN/TPY-2 radar on site. Lovely image from Planet Labs.

They refused a ceasefire for 7 years during the Iran Iraq war. Even when they had no armed forces due to purges and the Iraqis held overwhelming land force and air superiority, even when the Iraqis used Chemical weapons, even when the US sunk the entire Iran navy, they refused a ceasefire.

the Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil chokepoint. The Middle East accounts for about 24% of global sulphur production, and sulphur is the feedstock for sulphuric acid used across nickel, copper and fertilizer supply chains. theoregongroup.substack.com/p/strait-of-...

Which was stupider? The GW Bush decision to invade Iraq or the the Trump decision to defang Iran? At this point it's the Iraq war by a wide margin as it greatly weakened the US in blood and treasure, helped its enemies and was strategic lunacy. But don't count out Trump just yet.

“But, as you see, it's a beautiful day, the Strait of Hormuz is open and people are having a wonderful time!” (Credit to @ScarletCinema on X)

Name the only G7 country that is a net exporter of petroleum.

New player in the game.

Mission Creep accomplished.

This piece is worth every minute you spend with it: "Go to a bar in Finland and shout: 'Who can shoot an anti-tank weapon?' All the men will stand." @liamdenning.bsky.social and @louiepalu.bsky.social embed with the NATO-backed army preparing for war with Russia www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

The stages of losing a war: 1. Start a war with no agreed war aims 2. Never plan using available data (eg 50 years of work on Hormuz scenario) 3. Spout data with little relevance to the conflict (eg ships, a/c sunk) 4. Disregard adverse reports 5. Cast aspersions on the messenger: now 6. Next: lie

! UN naval ships won't start providing armed escorts through the strait of Hormuz until the shooting stops.