All reports out of Iran must be treated with skepticism which makes the ability to emit sound assessments damn near impossible.

It's a coin toss whether NATO survives a US takeover of Greenland but anyone stating that it would finish NATO vastly underestimates how much allies need the US in NATO. I can easily imagine a scenario where allies show great disapproval but continue "under protest". www.ft.com/content/d297...

Secretary Noem, this is what “domestic terrorism” looks like, not what happened in Minneapolis. mississippitoday.org/2026/01/10/f...

...And please take a few barrels of oil if you can.

Trump seems to be far more interested in a legacy defining land acquisition rather than pragmatically getting what he wants through negotiation. Thus endeth the transactional President.

1938 vs 2025

Sad!

AMERICA'S MISSING MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE Manufacturing has been in a recession for three years. The evidence is pretty convincing that tariffs have made things worse. I explore this in my latest for @economist.com. Link: www.economist.com/finance-and...

That a US gov officer shot and killed an unarmed civilian today (an extra judicial killing) who posed no threat is beyond disturbing. That the Secretary of Homeland Security is now referring to the victim's actions as "domestic terrorism" is a desecration of everything that America stands for.

more details on US as marketer of Ven oil and sanctions relief. - Us only legal seller -funds go into US controlled accounts - diluent from US - sanctions relief related to energy sales -export controls eased on equipment -no discussion on debt www.energy.gov/articles/fac...

"Aldrich Ames, the most murderous turncoat in the history of the Central Intelligence Agency, whose betrayal in working for the Soviet Union went undetected for almost a decade, died on Monday." 1. Tim Weiner proving the pen = mightier than the sword and not holding anything back.

"The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must" is accurate but what is also true is that Hubris, over reach and overstretch driven by overconfidence will always drive empires to their grave.

Best podcast I've ever done. But that's because I interviewed @wellerstein.bsky.social!

The thing with the liberal international order is that it was largely created as a tool of hegemonic statecraft; but too many people have memed themselves thinking it exists for the benefit of the Third World and not of the First World.

"If today’s U.S. Navy suffers heavy losses in the early phase of a war, it will be a very long time before the defense industrial base can construct replacements, much less expand the fleet. If an aircraft carrier were lost in battle today, it may not be replaced for decades—or ever."

We're all just living in it.

Hard truth: If the US acquires Greenland, NATO members will strenuously and loudly object but will likely choose to continue to be a part of it (We're continuing, but under protest). I mean, yes, it could all fall apart but I just don't see that as the likely scenario.

Supporters of the Venezuelan action keep pointing out that there are no boots on the ground but the truth is are around 20,000 "boots at sea" which easily costs tens of millions of dollars a day to support.

"Lawless behaviour, we are told, will alienate allies. But note the convoluted, desperately evasive, formula-seeking responses of transatlantic allies." thecritic.co.uk/the-world-is...

Best I can tell, there are no "troops on the ground" so this is different than 🇮🇶 or 🇦🇫. Trump kidnapped the leader, degraded military installations and is now pointing a gun at Caracas saying FAFO. That's not (yet) some grand plan to social engineer the country into Jeffersonian democracy.

An excellent sum up from WRM. Bonus, a shot at "the dwindling band of bitter clingers to the dream that the magical force known as “international law" www.wsj.com/opinion/will...

Anyone seriously thinking that Trump will militarily invade Canada needs a serious reality check. But I take your point.

Seems strange President Trump used language almost identical to Teddy Roosevelt’s 1901 State of the Union address arguing the US would govern Cuba and the Philippines until they could govern themselves. Surely incompatible with aversion to regime change and long occupations in the NSS.

From 17 November 2025: "Toppling Maduro is the easy part. What follows is the hard strategic slog of policing a sprawling, heavily armed society where state services have collapsed and regime loyalists, criminal syndicates, and colectivos all compete for turf." warontherocks.com/2025/11/the-...

Yemen, Iran, and now Venezuela, without a single aviation casualty. That's really amazing.

100% agree.

Before conspiracy theories run wild: Venezuela exports less than 1% of global oil supply.

These are exactly the questions we need to ask. I won't shed a tear for Maduro but declaring 'mission accomplished' is not a plan. I tend to argue against regime change by force not because it's immoral or illegal but because it tends to make things worse than before.

Welcome to the power based world. By the way, you've been living in it all along.

"Rules-based international order" ≠ rule of law Based on rules is different from structured by enforceable rules. Domestic systems can have rule of law. The international system is structured by state power, hence the sometimes glaring hypocrisy.

Pax vobiscum

250 years ago to the day, the US invaded Canada and easily took Montreal but met their Waterloo at Quebec city where Benedict Arnold and his troops were repelled by the garrisoned city. Quebec city and her citadelle still stand resolute today. www.youtube.com/watch?v=88LP...

Politically, Canada and the US are not getting along due to Trump's arsonist ways. Militarily, the two countries continue to march in lock step according to the 🇨🇦 Minister of Defence.

I have high praise for this $2.5 billion investment by Canada for Ukraine which represents several national interests for Canada.

This is leadership. Doug Ford is creating dependable jobs and clean, dependable electricity that is powering Ontario (including Quebec) and is making Ontario a world leader in nuclear power. The lunacy of the Green Energy Act is behind Ontario and better days lie ahead.

It's been 8,200 hours since Trump was sworn in.

Indeed.

The Battle of Disko Bay will be short, brutal and stupid....

As what Voltaire said of the Holy Roman Empire, the National Security Strategy is neither national, nor secure, nor strategic. Many commentators miss its inconsistencies and how it reflects not only a broken policy process, but also deeper fissures within the Trump admin. thehub.ca/2025/12/19/t...

CATO INSTITUTE: Despite DOGE slashing jobs, government spending in every month of 2025 “was greater than in every other year .. An observer who did not know when DOGE started could not identify it” on a chart. 🤡 www.cato.org/blog/doge-pr...

The Russian border guards intruded hundreds of meters into Estonia yesterday. Not decimeters as I wrote in OP. I misinterpreted the text description who stated ”Russian side of the breakwater” indicating the border ran along. On the other hand, ”temporary control line”. Well chosen spot FSB.

$35 Billion.

2025: Global coal and gasoline demand rose to a fresh all-time high. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

What's going on in Iran in the aftermath of the 12 Day War? I wrote about the security calculations, the power struggle -- and the scary stasis that has gripped Iran today www.theatlantic.com/internationa...

If you have to start a post with "I don't know much about [subject]", please consider not posting.

Today, the 2025 #ArcticReportCard was released, marking 20 years of tracking rapid Arctic warming and change. Find the full 2025 Arctic Report Card, with images, facts and stats at: arctic.noaa.gov/report-card/... #AGU25 noaa.gov via NOAA Research

Putin orders building of North Pole ice base