So, a project that I’m working on is getting some media attention, and that feels pretty cool. I should note: this article lets at least one highly dubious claim from administration brass go unchallenged. So bad as this picture of Trump’s SSA looks, the reality’s probably worse. Gift link below.

Flu season is coming. 🍂💉 A French study shows that invitation letters & free vouchers boost vaccination—especially among the most risk-averse. Clearer, targeted campaigns could save thousands. tinyurl.com/y7frzfk2 @universityofleeds.bsky.social

Come be my colleague!

This is false. For example, the libertarian @cato.org breaks down the numbers, showing about 6 deaths from right-wing politically motivated attackers for every 1 from left-wing attackers. Moreover, the claim that shooters represent anyone other than an unhinged fraction of society is the deeper lie.

That statement is made not because it is a causal effect but you do see Black unemployment jump in advance of a downturn. In the graph below, the Black unemployment rate starts to rise before each of the called recessions, while the White unemployment rises later.

'Common diabetes drug metformin cuts long covid risk by 64 percent in UK study' 'The present study demonstrates the potential benefits of metformin in the effort to mitigate Long COVID....' www.news-medical.net/news/2025090...

You shouldn’t have to walk around with papers in the United States of America to prove that you belong. All I can say is that this administration should understand Chicago is a place that’s going to protect its people.

"It's impossible to do business under circumstances like this. There are serious debates about whether tariffs could be good or bad. But incompetence, incoherence, illegality -- that doesn't help anyone. "

In good news today...

Hi again US citizens. If your skin is any shade of dark, and federal military troops or armed agents hear you speak a non-English sentence, they may now detain you with violent force. For that reason alone. Until you can produce a passport, however long that is. The law of our land.

Let me say what the President won't: Domestic violence is not okay. It's immoral, illegal and abusive, and no real man is okay would do it, approve of it, or minimize it.

Drop a like to add your thanks to the BLS staff who put together the jobs numbers. They've done so yet again this month, despite the arbitrary firing of their boss, uninformed social media insults, and the prospect of being led by an unqualified ideologue. Thank you BLS-ers!

The job market continues to slow, and it's pretty dramatic. Keeping our head above water (for now). August jobs growth was only +22k. July revised up +6k to +79k. June was revised down by -27k to -13k. Average jobs growth over the three months = +29k. Unemployment rose a tick to 4.3%

Updating my recession watch chart. Note that you want to weight these measures according to their signal-to-noise ratio. The smoother lines are more signal, less noise, and they're suggesting the economy has slowed pretty sharply.

🆕 Measuring poverty using mobile phone data: Implications for targeting and impact evaluation Today on VoxDev w/ Emily Aiken (@cmu.edu), Suzanne Bellue (ENSAE), Joshua Blumenstock (@berkeleyischool.bsky.social), Dean Karlan (Northwestern) & @christopher-udry.bsky.social: voxdev.org/topic/method...

a major concern coming out of the jobs report today is prime-age Black employment, which fell in 2025 these data are noisy and while it would be great if they turned around, I'm not optimistic: there will be downward pressure from federal job losses over the next few months

I am writing a public comment on the recent EPA revocation of the 2009 endangerment finding and you should too. This is going to increase harmful air pollution from traffic. www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...

Today is the last day to sign!

If you're an economist, please repost and urge people in your networks to sign-on. They need to be asked to sign. As Heraclitus says, "All beasts must be driven to pasture."

I have never seen so many public servants protest the mismanagement of a government. Trumpists will point to this as proof of the deep state, but the reality is that these are professionals who are desperately trying to get the public to understand how bad things are.

Just added my signature to the letter. This is a no brainer. It’s wild we’re having a conversation about US central bank independence in 2025. But here we are. Please read and consider adding your signature.

UC Berkeley is hiring an Assistant Professor this fall, with a preference for candidates in International Relations, American Politics, or Public Law. I am on the committee and glad to answer questions. Please apply! aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04948

Trump is attempting to take over the Federal Reserve, which really needs to remain independent for our economy, and to do it, he's going after innocent people and trying to pin them with crimes. Lisa is innocent, and excellent economist, and doesn't deserve this. www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddo...

The letter is ready, thanks to all those who helped out! Starting to gather signature now, please consider signing (link at top of letter) & spread the word. docs.google.com/document/d/1...

Really important new study on the tax rate of billionaires from @gabrielzucman.bsky.social et al Upshot: The top 400 ultrabillionaires: 23.8% Avg Americans: 30.2% Yes, the superrich pay far less in taxes than the rest of us. www.nber.org/papers/w34170

If Trump were operating in the best interests of America's businesses, his move to fire Lisa Cook would cause stocks to shrug, or maybe rise. But they're saying: This is dangerous. This move serves Trump, but not America. Our economy is at risk when the President undermines the Fed.

If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...

On February 3, 2010, argentine president Cristina Kirchner fired the head of the central bank, setting off a 15 year spiral of inflation that would eventually peak last year at 220%. Let's say, on that day, you bought lunch for $20 argentine pesos. Today, that same lunch would cost you $4,156 pesos

Two of my favorite coauthors, and the leading textbook authors of their respective generations -- Greg Mankiw and @betseystevenson.bsky.social -- in today's @nytimes.com dig into what Trump is doing to the economy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/o... (gift article)

“This is one more basic test for the media. Are they going to focus on the pretextual attacks to discredit Cook —the mortgage allegations, or her qualifications — or will they recognize the pattern of a government using its powers to crush any independent sources of power?” *obviously racist attacks

This article has everything. Free community college (paid in part by the millionaire tax), last dollar state aid programs being affected in the future by the policy disaster that is the federal government, the reality that tuition free doesn't cover things like transportation. Good read.

Just an honest labor statistician collecting the data, crunching the numbers, and reporting them fairly, and definitely not an extremist ideologue with an axe to grind, unshackled from respect for the law or political norms.

I must continue to insist that this is not a strong regime. It does not have the kind of pan-societal support needed to enforce Gleichshaltung. It has significant elite buy-in and a small popular coalition, but it is brittle and feeble and will collapse if pressed hard enough.

Taxation without representation. People living in DC psy federal taxes but don't have representation in the Congress. DC needs to become a state.

Absenteeism is big biz and companies are peddling costly services and tech solutions to schools. Here's a sampling of what schools that have succeeded in reducing their chronic absenteeism rates are actually doing. (Spoiler: outside vendors not required). hechingerreport.org/proof-points...

Only a few more weeks for junior researchers to submit a paper for the new award from the Sciences Po Department of Economics in honour of Ghazala Azmat. #EconSky

I do not want to live in a city controlled by Donald Trump. But because I live here, I don't have representation in congress. Please call your congress people and tell them to support home rule!

All scientific grant funding must now be approved by a political appointee and "demonstrably advance the President's policy priorities." I wonder where innovation will happen in the future? It won't be in the US arstechnica.com/science/2025...

These top positions are, other than the commissioner, civil servants. They supported and assured BLS's culture of integrity and excellence. The process of replacing them will be critical to the agency's future and to the future credibility of official statistics. #NumbersDay #EconSky

FEMA employees are being forced to work for ICE in its concentration camps. Imagine being hired to help people and then being told your job is to imprison them without process or trial. thehill.com/policy/natio...

The constitution. They sliced out the parts of the constitution that they don’t like from the government website. Yet another reminder that in an aspiring authoritarian government, you should never rely on online document as definitive sources.

1/ Is there any case of an academic who has joined the Trump administration resigning in protest or publicly defending the integrity of the BLS? Anyone purporting to be a scholar has an absolute ethical obligation to do so. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/u...

Don't like that

It is not “deal-making.” It is extortion built on Christopher Rufo’s idea of “taking down” one or more elite university. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/u...

New data from the FBI: Murder fell 15% in 2024, the fastest drop ever recorded & violent/property crime rates fell to levels not seen since the 1960s. Murder returned to pre-COVID levels in 2024 & is may be the lowest level ever recorded in 2025. jasher.substack.com/p/murder-off...

This is so important. The focus on job numbers ignores the fact that the BLS computes inflation (the CPI) which is directly linked to many government and non-government benefits. Any attempt at politicizing inflation numbers is very, very, very bad…

Just think of how different this headline would be if BLS was pressured to report low inflation. We need accurate and unbiased economic data. It’s absolutely critical. bsky.app/profile/forb...

As Redfin's Chief Economist, I rely on Bureau of Labor Statistics data for housing forecasts. I support the National Association of Business Economists’ statement condemning the firing of the BLS commissioner. Trustworthy data is crucial for business decisions and should remain apolitical.

I’ve been having a few too many conversations like this. Them: Hi Kate, how are things with your work, with the world? Me: the university is under attack, democratic norms being broken in half, so, pretty bad. Them: But everything is going to come back and be okay after the midterms. Me: Uhh, no.

The firing of the BLS commissioner for honestly reporting the state of the economy is the type of thing that could undermine our entire economic system. Without accurate information, we're flying blind. Also this is clearly fascism and we need to call it out. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...