The New START treaty doesn't expire until February 5. Stationing Oreshnik in Belarus prior to it's expiration is one last violation of the treaty. 🧵

1. Crises, acquisitions, and policy all suggest that conventional weapons are taking on a larger role deterring nuclear use. My new article in @intsecurity.bsky.social examines why US officials would consider conventional options when they have nuclear options available and how they might use them.

🚨 New article out in @jeppjournal.bsky.social with @svenhegewald.bsky.social “The changing geography of support for European integration in the shadow of the Ukraine war." How did Russia’s invasion reshape public support for EU policies? www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

How well could the US track Soviet mobile ICBMs in the cold war through SIGINT/ELINT satellites? A good debate here. "...it is more clear now that NSA tested the idea and had resources to pursue it." strategicsimplicity.substack.com/p/sigint-and...

Fantastic resource for historians: a spreadsheet of NARA's digitized microfilm, with links to the files in the Archives catalog. May it help you as much as it has helped me. www.archives.gov/files/colleg...

Thrilled to share my new EJIR article on what reassures U.S. allies in crises. It’s Open Access: doi.org/10.1177/1354... A short thread 🧵

Good piece by Richard Nephew, on why the destruction of Fordow isn't likely to be a silver bullet thebulletin.org/2025/06/the-...

Interested in how major geopolitical shifts shape the dynamics of state birth? Check out our new article on great power shocks and global patterns of secessionist movements (with Ryan Griffiths and @seva.bsky.social). Link: doi.org/10.1080/0305... A short thread 🧵

I asked the ministers whether they welcomed Golden Dome or saw it as destabilising. “It’s a defence mechanism, not an attack mechanism,” says NZ defence minister. “They’re not going to do it unless there is some reason to do it.”

Also for teacher.. I have a student essay where a footnote claims that a 1983 AJPS article used rare event logit estimator (!)

NEW - Anti-Asian Hate Crimes and American Reputation - cup.org/43cUf7F "findings underscore the global significance of addressing hate crimes in the USA for the country’s reputation and soft power" -Joonseok Yang, @sungeunkim.bsky.social, @jongheepark.bsky.social & @inbok.bsky.social #OpenAccess

Short thread (hopefully in plain English) on the nuclear deterrence dynamics in the India-Pakistan relationship and where this goes if escalation continues. <1>

If the WW2 Vday for the US is May 8, then who won the Pacific War? Did I miss something?

🧵 I've been reviewing many of the past year's US & European military & intelligence assessments of how long it would take Russia to rebuild its military capability and the timeline on which any threat to NATO could unfold. A brief thread below which summarises these assessments.

📽️Are your favourite characters from Disney, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Game of Thrones, & Star Wars left-wing or right-wing? 🤔 ➡️ @turnbulldugarte.com & @markuswagner.bsky.social explore how we project political identities onto heroes & villains www.cambridge.org/core/journal... #FirstView

BREAKING: The Trump administration is considering to give up the role of NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe - a role that began with then-World War II hero and future president Dwight D. Eisenhower.

There are indeed competing arguments on the capability requirement for credible extended nuclear deterrence. As for empirical research, I have not seen a poli sci publication that demonstrates that quant/qual nuclear balance has any impact on the credibility of extended nuclear deterrence.

Many US allies in Asia experienced this with China when it comes to econ relationship. Now they will see the US following the same approach, and you still want to secure allied support to contain China. Good luck!

With all the paperwork finalized, I am thrilled to announce that I’ve been awarded the Stanton Foundation’s Nuclear Security Grant to support my research on US arms control diplomacy and allies’ perceptions of extended deterrence credibility.

A good thread--could see some interrsting connections with ROK

🚨New First View Article🚨 "‘How to entrap your protector: Reassessing entrapment in light of the Crimean War crisis" by Tudor Onea is now available online first view! 📜➡️ buff.ly/3OsfhbG

Not only strategically incoherent and immoral, this also demonstrates the core lack of character, courage and intelligence behind such thinking. www.reuters.com/world/trump-...