Après plus de trois ans de sanctions, l’effondrement industriel russe n’a pas eu lieu. En ciblant les usines ennemies, l'Ukraine «sanctionne par drones» — seule manière de déjouer la cannibalisation industrielle. @yarbatman.bsky.social explique cette résilience. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/11/2...

This is by far the most thoughtful discussion about the failed diplomacy around Iran’s nuclear program. Reflective and careful, unlike so much of the hot air, vibes, and guess work we are offered. Thanks @yarbatman.bsky.social

Bonus - The Death of the Iran Deal w/ @yarbatman.bsky.social Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is back on the show with Derek to break down how the Iran nuclear deal broke down, and where things go from here. Link below ⤵️

'[Iran] was moving in a better direction, pushed and pulled by 90 million souls yearning for greater security, prosperity and liberty ... Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people.' - @yarbatman.bsky.social

The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

"Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people. They did not want this war and they were pushing their leaders to avoid it." Important read from my friend @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

It’s neither far fetched nor conspiratorial to consider that ultimately, *this* is the underlying reason Netanyahu chose to strike now: The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

This is a great piece from @veenaa.bsky.social on the prospects for civil nuclear cooperation between the US and Iran. For a new US-Iran deal to be transformative, it will require the two sides to find areas for deep technical cooperation, like nuclear energy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/22/i...

Spoke to @sgreports.bsky.social about why Iran’s leaders are pursuing nuclear talks even if they believe they can “resist” Trump’s maximum pressure. It’s the pace of development that matters. Under sanctions, Iran is being left behind by its regional peers. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action. This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods. This one big step could make a big difference.

Many thanks to @boursebazaar.bsky.social ( @yarbatman.bsky.social and Henna Moussavi) for publishing!

Trump’s promise to lift sanctions gave Syrians hope for relief in a dire economy. But lifting sanctions is just the first step towards rebuilding Syria. As Nancy Ezzeddine writes, policymakers must see sanctions relief as “an entry point, not an end point.” www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Bill Luers was a fundamentally optimistic diplomat and I admired him for it. He once told me that optimism is what kept him in his profession "for so many decades." It is also what drove his remarkable work on US-Iran relations. He will be missed. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/11/u...

As the Taliban tries to attract foreign investment, it's pitching Afghanistan as a regional transit hub. In this analysis for @boursebazaar.bsky.social, Nargiza Umarova looks at the range of road and rail projects being pursued by Afghanistan's neighbors. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

My thoughts on how the US and Iran can make deeper economic relations a cornerstone of a new nuclear deal. Iran presents a unique opportunity for Trump. It is a major economy with which the US could run large and persistent trade surpluses. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iran is a uniquely large and open market for American exporters—perhaps the last major economy in the world where the US could reasonably overtake China as an industrial partner. My reflections on how a new nuclear deal can be a *business* deal for Trump: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iraq's Sudani met with Syria's al-Sharaa today. The meeting marks the latest step as Iraq begins to adjust its Syria policy, cautiously extending a hand to the new leadership in Damascus. Francesco Schiavi details the factors shaping Iraq's Syria policy. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about… The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...

Last month, @boursebazaar.bsky.social convened Syrian civil society actors, sanctions experts, and European officials for an important workshop. In this piece, my colleague Nancy Ezzeddine explains what was discussed and why Syria must remain a priority. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the US-Iran talks. I explained that Iran is looking at recent moves by the US administration, such as the critical minerals deal pushed on Ukraine, and recognizing that Trump wants a business deal, not just a nuclear deal. www.newsweek.com/iran-leader-...

NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back! I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou. Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes. www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...

When the Iranian FM describes Iran's economy as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for US companies, he's cribbing from a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report. MGI concluded Iran had "the potential to add $1 trillion to GDP and create 9 million jobs by 2035." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Until recently, everyone was concerned about the unrivaled US capacity to wage economic war, but a minority of countries were targeted. Now Trump is waging economic war on everyone. The global response to US economic coercion is no longer limited by a collective action problem.

In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter. In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales. From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...

1. Why hasn't China made bigger strides to develop an alternative to the US-led global financial system? We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade... What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?

To keep production going amid a currency crunch, Iranian automakers are trading pistachios for essential car parts. @yarbatman.bsky.social explores this creative yet costly workaround for our blog. Read more here: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202... #Iran #automotive #pistachios #economy

Iran has the most interesting economy in the world. Here's the latest weird story. Iranian automakers were struggling to import car parts from China... ...so they quickly got into the business of exporting pistachios. I explain why in this piece. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

The whole trend of using ChatGPT to create Studio Ghibli images comes across as pretty sinister if you consider that Miyazaki is still alive and went on the record years ago about his aversion to AI image generation. Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!

When a currency crunch led to falling imports of car parts from China, Iranian automakers stumbled upon an unexpected solution. They started trading nuts for bolts. I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iran has the most interesting economy in the world. Here's the latest weird story. Iranian automakers were struggling to import car parts from China... ...so they quickly got into the business of exporting pistachios. I explain why in this piece. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Every February, the Uzbek president issues a decree setting out development priorities for the year. 2025 is the “Year of Environmental Protection and the Green Economy.” My colleague Shakhlo Kamaladinova examines whether a decree can make a difference. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

"This marks the first time the U.S. has ever sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery... the Trump administration is trying to send a signal to Iran's oil customers in China." Words from our CEO, @yarbatman.bsky.social, in a recent @newsweek.com article on Beijing's role in the Iranian oil trade.

Still can’t get over the fact that BYD basically operates its own navy. Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles. So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.

Look, I don't expect Witkoff or anyone else in the administration to read my book. Or any book. But if someone shows them how to use Google Translate I will be happy to send them the mountains of stuff that I have in which Russians explain the war in Russian. And "Crimea and four regions" it ain't.

Many see the repression at Columbia as just the latest overreach by Trump. But the American state's antagonism towards universities, especially Columbia, deepened during the War on Terror. Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."

Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the new designation of Luqing Petrochemical, a Chinese refinery. The move is significant for Trump's maximum pressure policy on Iran. But it's arguably even more significant in the context US economic competition with China. www.newsweek.com/china-us-oil...

Spoke to CNN International about China hosting talks with Russia and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. China was never a central player in the nuclear negotiations. Russia and Iran know this. But they are happy to let China position itself as an active player. www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/c...

The cuts to US development aid will be widely felt among grantees in Central Asia, but leaders from the region are eyeing support from other, more neutral donors. As @aijanco.bsky.social explains, the Gulf states are emerging as development donors of choice. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated. The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west). My column: www.ft.com/content/3046...

Une idée intéressante : Trump aurait abandonné l'idée de battre la Chine et la Russie et c'était à la place à assurer le statut américain en vassalisant ses alliés. Comme Poutine en fait.

Absolutely killer analysis of the Trump tariffs

“In short, we’ve gone from Pax Americana to Tax Americana.” - @yarbatman.bsky.social Hanging that one another Dutch tile next to “beware the false realists” from @shashj.bsky.social @adamtooze.bsky.social

This is such a tought-provoking and good thread. Trumps policy may be built on the idea that the USA cannot compete with China and so it’s better to withdraw, and coerce remaining allies (Canada) into complete submission in a smaller yard. Very different from Biden.

I am old enough to remember when Victoria Nuland distributing sandwiches/cookies to protesters was for many a rock solid evidence of a US-based coup, an illegitimate interference that made any subsequent Ukrainian government an illegitimate puppet junta. Besides, Poroshenko and Tymoshenko? Really?

In the 1980s, US policymakers intervened to push Japanese automakers into JVs in the US market. Charles Yang makes a good case for using the same playbook with Chinese automakers. But will that help US automakers become “globally competitive?” Unlikely. foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/04/a...

Earlier this month, the Iranian and Tajik presidents met in Dushanbe, in the hopes of relaunching the partnership between the two countries. @sherkhashimov.bsky.social explores the reasons for the relaunch and the complicated history of Iran-Tajikistan ties. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Consider returning to Russia? Be prepared to pay for it. RU Avtovaz says Renault can buy back its majority stake if it pays $1.3 bn. Another bonanza for the Kremlin and Moscow is ready to leverage it: stricter demands for localization and tech transfers à la China. www.reuters.com/business/aut...

Tesla stock is down around 25% since the start of the year, whereas BYD has gained nearly 50%. If American institutional investors continue cycling out of Tesla and start cycling into BYD and other Chinese OEMs, how will that change the outlook for US-China relations?

1. Background to the epochal change in German and European politics after the election. Merz, the presumed next Chancellor has said that Europe is setting out to "achieve its independence from the US, step by step." @abenewman.bsky.social and I explain the background in our book, Underground Empire

China and the EU are the world's two major exporters of manufactured goods and the US is the key market. China's surplus with the US is larger than that of the EU. But in proportion to the size of its own manufacturing sector, the EU's surplus is now larger than that of China.