A monstrously comprehensive nearly three hour long episode of @thedigradio.bsky.social examining the economic warfare dimensions of the US-Israeli war on Iran and Iran’s asymmetric response with Aslı Bâli, @yarbatman.bsky.social, and Nicholas Mulder. www.thedigradio.com/podcast/econ...

Interesting piece by @yarbatman.bsky.social who does the math on the Iranian Shahed-136 drones. He concludes the production cost of one Shahed is not $35,000, as is often cited, but roughly $7,000. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Come for the discussion trying to get to the bottom of how much an Iranian drone costs to make and stay for the discussion of how the sanctions regime has fostered a massive and surprisingly nimble domestic manufacturing base in Iran:

“The US and Israel have tried to try to make the conduct of war too ‘expensive’ for Iran. As this war of choice engulfs the region and the global economy, it is imperative to understand how ‘cheap’ a war can now be.” @yarbatman.bsky.social on the Shahed-136 www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

The Shahed-136 is a cheap weapon. But it’s much cheaper than most reports suggest. In this new analysis, @yarbatman.bsky.social compares production costs in the US and Iran to come up with a better estimate for the cost of a Shahed: $7,000. www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/cos...

Fascinating piece in @phenomenalworld.bsky.social by @yarbatman.bsky.social on the actual production costs of the Shahed-136:

I don't think it's quite right to say that the Shahed-136 is the AK-47 of states, but it's the analogy that came to my mind when reading this. By @yarbatman.bsky.social via @adamtooze.bsky.social

The war is jeopardizing the massive flow of energy and goods passing through the Gulf economies.

Special - War in the Gulf and the Global Economy w/ @yarbatman.bsky.social Derek speaks with Esfandyar Batmanghelidj about the economic effects of the Iran war. Available for all listeners now! Link in the replies.

More great analysis on Iran’s economy from @yarbatman.bsky.social.

Après plus de trois ans de sanctions, l’effondrement industriel russe n’a pas eu lieu. En ciblant les usines ennemies, l'Ukraine «sanctionne par drones» — seule manière de déjouer la cannibalisation industrielle. @yarbatman.bsky.social explique cette résilience. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/11/2...

This is by far the most thoughtful discussion about the failed diplomacy around Iran’s nuclear program. Reflective and careful, unlike so much of the hot air, vibes, and guess work we are offered. Thanks @yarbatman.bsky.social

Bonus - The Death of the Iran Deal w/ @yarbatman.bsky.social Esfandyar Batmanghelidj is back on the show with Derek to break down how the Iran nuclear deal broke down, and where things go from here. Link below ⤵️

'[Iran] was moving in a better direction, pushed and pulled by 90 million souls yearning for greater security, prosperity and liberty ... Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people.' - @yarbatman.bsky.social

The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

"Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life, but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people. They did not want this war and they were pushing their leaders to avoid it." Important read from my friend @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

It’s neither far fetched nor conspiratorial to consider that ultimately, *this* is the underlying reason Netanyahu chose to strike now: The Iranian people were starting to win their battle for liberty and prosperity. Then Israel attacked. @yarbatman.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

This is a great piece from @veenaa.bsky.social on the prospects for civil nuclear cooperation between the US and Iran. For a new US-Iran deal to be transformative, it will require the two sides to find areas for deep technical cooperation, like nuclear energy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/22/i...

Spoke to @sgreports.bsky.social about why Iran’s leaders are pursuing nuclear talks even if they believe they can “resist” Trump’s maximum pressure. It’s the pace of development that matters. Under sanctions, Iran is being left behind by its regional peers. www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...

The Trump administration has issued GL 25, effectively lifting sanctions on Syria in a single executive action. This is an extraordinary move. USG has historically approached sanctions relief with complicated, incremental methods. This one big step could make a big difference.

Many thanks to @boursebazaar.bsky.social ( @yarbatman.bsky.social and Henna Moussavi) for publishing!

Trump’s promise to lift sanctions gave Syrians hope for relief in a dire economy. But lifting sanctions is just the first step towards rebuilding Syria. As Nancy Ezzeddine writes, policymakers must see sanctions relief as “an entry point, not an end point.” www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Bill Luers was a fundamentally optimistic diplomat and I admired him for it. He once told me that optimism is what kept him in his profession "for so many decades." It is also what drove his remarkable work on US-Iran relations. He will be missed. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/11/u...

As the Taliban tries to attract foreign investment, it's pitching Afghanistan as a regional transit hub. In this analysis for @boursebazaar.bsky.social, Nargiza Umarova looks at the range of road and rail projects being pursued by Afghanistan's neighbors. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

My thoughts on how the US and Iran can make deeper economic relations a cornerstone of a new nuclear deal. Iran presents a unique opportunity for Trump. It is a major economy with which the US could run large and persistent trade surpluses. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iran is a uniquely large and open market for American exporters—perhaps the last major economy in the world where the US could reasonably overtake China as an industrial partner. My reflections on how a new nuclear deal can be a *business* deal for Trump: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iraq's Sudani met with Syria's al-Sharaa today. The meeting marks the latest step as Iraq begins to adjust its Syria policy, cautiously extending a hand to the new leadership in Damascus. Francesco Schiavi details the factors shaping Iraq's Syria policy. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

On the @dropsitenews.com podcast with @mazmhussain.bsky.social about… The president’s unchecked authority to start economic wars The dangerous way US economic policy is now a subset of national security policy The impact of Trump’s tariffs on de-dollarization www.dropsitenews.com/p/trump-decl...

Last month, @boursebazaar.bsky.social convened Syrian civil society actors, sanctions experts, and European officials for an important workshop. In this piece, my colleague Nancy Ezzeddine explains what was discussed and why Syria must remain a priority. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the US-Iran talks. I explained that Iran is looking at recent moves by the US administration, such as the critical minerals deal pushed on Ukraine, and recognizing that Trump wants a business deal, not just a nuclear deal. www.newsweek.com/iran-leader-...

NEW SEASON: The Sanctions Age podcast is back! I'll be speaking with amazing guests, including Eddie Fishman, Golnar Motevalli, Kyle Chan, Erich Ferrari, and Eva Dou. Subscribe to the newsletter to make sure you don't miss the new episodes. www.thesanctionsage.com/p/the-sancti...

When the Iranian FM describes Iran's economy as a "trillion-dollar opportunity" for US companies, he's cribbing from a 2016 McKinsey Global Institute report. MGI concluded Iran had "the potential to add $1 trillion to GDP and create 9 million jobs by 2035." www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Until recently, everyone was concerned about the unrivaled US capacity to wage economic war, but a minority of countries were targeted. Now Trump is waging economic war on everyone. The global response to US economic coercion is no longer limited by a collective action problem.

In Q2 2015, just 21,000 electric or hybrid cars were sold in China. This was the equivalent of 0.4% of all cars sold that quarter. In Q4 of last year, 4.5 million of these cars were sold, the equivalent of 46% of all automobile sales. From 0% to 50% in just 10 years...

1. Why hasn't China made bigger strides to develop an alternative to the US-led global financial system? We've been talking about "de-dollarization" for years and the RMB still accounts for a tiny fraction of global trade... What if China isn't *really* trying to de-dollarize?

To keep production going amid a currency crunch, Iranian automakers are trading pistachios for essential car parts. @yarbatman.bsky.social explores this creative yet costly workaround for our blog. Read more here: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202... #Iran #automotive #pistachios #economy

Iran has the most interesting economy in the world. Here's the latest weird story. Iranian automakers were struggling to import car parts from China... ...so they quickly got into the business of exporting pistachios. I explain why in this piece. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

The whole trend of using ChatGPT to create Studio Ghibli images comes across as pretty sinister if you consider that Miyazaki is still alive and went on the record years ago about his aversion to AI image generation. Overnight, his life’s work has been completely trivialised!

When a currency crunch led to falling imports of car parts from China, Iranian automakers stumbled upon an unexpected solution. They started trading nuts for bolts. I unpack the latest example of the (sometimes wacky) ways Iran adapts to sanctions: www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Iran has the most interesting economy in the world. Here's the latest weird story. Iranian automakers were struggling to import car parts from China... ...so they quickly got into the business of exporting pistachios. I explain why in this piece. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

Every February, the Uzbek president issues a decree setting out development priorities for the year. 2025 is the “Year of Environmental Protection and the Green Economy.” My colleague Shakhlo Kamaladinova examines whether a decree can make a difference. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

"This marks the first time the U.S. has ever sanctioned a Chinese oil refinery... the Trump administration is trying to send a signal to Iran's oil customers in China." Words from our CEO, @yarbatman.bsky.social, in a recent @newsweek.com article on Beijing's role in the Iranian oil trade.

Still can’t get over the fact that BYD basically operates its own navy. Each one of these ro-ro ships can deliver 7,000 vehicles. So far BYD has four ships in its fleet. Four more will be in service by early 2026.

Look, I don't expect Witkoff or anyone else in the administration to read my book. Or any book. But if someone shows them how to use Google Translate I will be happy to send them the mountains of stuff that I have in which Russians explain the war in Russian. And "Crimea and four regions" it ain't.

Many see the repression at Columbia as just the latest overreach by Trump. But the American state's antagonism towards universities, especially Columbia, deepened during the War on Terror. Susan Sontag, writing days after September 11, warned us that "everything is not O.K."

Spoke to @amirdaftari.bsky.social about the new designation of Luqing Petrochemical, a Chinese refinery. The move is significant for Trump's maximum pressure policy on Iran. But it's arguably even more significant in the context US economic competition with China. www.newsweek.com/china-us-oil...

Spoke to CNN International about China hosting talks with Russia and Iran over Iran’s nuclear program. China was never a central player in the nuclear negotiations. Russia and Iran know this. But they are happy to let China position itself as an active player. www.cnn.com/2025/03/13/c...

The cuts to US development aid will be widely felt among grantees in Central Asia, but leaders from the region are eyeing support from other, more neutral donors. As @aijanco.bsky.social explains, the Gulf states are emerging as development donors of choice. www.bourseandbazaar.org/articles/202...

NEW: The actions of Trump and Vance in recent weeks highlight something under-appreciated. The American right is now ideologically closer to countries like Russia, Turkey and in some senses China, than to the rest of the west (even the conservative west). My column: www.ft.com/content/3046...

Une idée intéressante : Trump aurait abandonné l'idée de battre la Chine et la Russie et c'était à la place à assurer le statut américain en vassalisant ses alliés. Comme Poutine en fait.