1/ Why is atmospheric CO₂ accelerating faster than fossil fuel emissions are growing? The answer is buried in the data, and it's more worrying than most people realise. A thread. 🧵👇

"Climate change is not this slow moving thing that will evolve smoothly - it is now." SCRI Executive Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social spoke with We Don't Have Time after the UK National Emergency Briefing.

1/ For those of us keeping an eye on systemic #climate risks, these aren’t difficult dots to connect. I find it downright frightening. We need to brace for impacts and spring into preparedness now. This thread outlines 6 key papers and what we can do in response. ⬇️🧵

Laurie Laybourn, executive director of the think tank Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, said the report was not a “prediction that collapse is inevitable” but a “warning that on the current trajectory, under current policies, collapse becomes a real possibility”. www.thetimes.com/article/3812...

2/ Meanwhile, new reporting by the Times, quoting our Director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social, highlights internal UK government analysis showing that Britain’s food supply is ‘at risk of catastrophic failure by 2030’. Papers like the above show severe security threats which are not being addressed.

Renewables mean that "Spain looks well placed in two ways. Its speedy rollout of renewables has put a lid on electricity bills — but that should help bolster its political independence too. Good reason for Europe’s green brigade to charge ahead." www.ft.com/content/19f2...

"Just one energy shock of the scale that we saw in 2022 costs about the same as it would cost to get the whole country to net zero." SCRI executive director @laurielaybourn.bsky.social tells LBC wars will keep having an outsized impact on UK without urgent improvements in food/energy resilience.

Hybrid roundtable 18th March at @exeter.ac.uk "Economic Policy to Navigate Climate Risks: from Tipping Points to Green Swans . I will be talking about climate & social tipping points (including derailment risks) Register 👇 forms.office.com/pages/respon...

Thanks to all those who came to Kairos the other night and for a wonderful discussion on how to make sure climate action isn’t derailed by climate consequences Check out our Strategic Climate Risks Initiative research on derailment risk at scri.org.uk/derailment

This is something I have often wondered about - to what extent can we overcome tendencies to respond poorly to crises? At Kairos tonight: Derailment Risk: A Climate Blind Spot with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social share.google/Qxl6wiSe6vsA...

In London on Tuesday night this week? Join me at Kairos on Tottenham Court Road to talk about how we can maintain our agency to act on climate change even as its impacts escalate Doors and drinks at 1830, talk starts at 1900 Grab a ticket 👇 www.kairos.london/event/derail...

1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵

"If pandemic threat assessment and preparedness was as fragmented, we would be scandalised." It was great talking to Ellen for this excellent piece in @prospectmagazine.co.uk about climate risk and the threat of AMOC collapse specifically Essential reading!

The world is in the literal and figurative storm of an Earth system crisis Like sailors who end up in a storm, we need a strategy for navigating *within it* so that we have a chance of *getting out* How? Check out my latest episode with @pbs.org's Weathered👇 www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4pS...

We need more stories that help people learn from what’s working. Not just what’s going wrong. Not just what “has to happen by 2050.” Real examples of action that others can see, understand & build on. Here's a 🧵on advice & tips for sharing #climate stories that actually inspire action.

“[AMOC collapse] is a scenario of global tumult, driven by countries with large populations pushed from the climate regime they're used to. It’s a recipe for serious, persistent global destabilisation” Great talking with @chicoharlan.bsky.social for this piece www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Starting now 👇

We're in a new climate reality - but how can we best operate in it? Join me and a stellar panel - including @emmahowardboyd.bsky.social - for this @businessgreen.bsky.social webinar to explore how best to map climate risk and build resilience 📅 Tomorrow (Tuesday 10th Feb) ⏰ 1200-1300 GMT

A new report highlights the "growing gap between real-world climate risk and the economic analysis used to guide policy, supervision, and investment," while also warning that ambitious action "cannot await perfected models."

Back in the Autumn, No.10 blocked the publication of a report into the risks the UK could face if climate change causes ecosystems around the world to collapse. On Tuesday, after an FOI request, it published the report. But it turns out, that wasn't the full version. www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

9/ On the charge of "fear-mongering": #Climate science does not choose alarm as a strategy. The scientific assessment of climate risk has intensified because the evidence has intensified, while global emissions continue to rise. The latest @ipcc.bsky.social report is very clear on this point:

#Thrutopia…

Lol, Zillow tried to rate the climate risks facing individual properties. The real estate industry *hated* it, precisely because it worked -- it made selling risky properties more difficult. So they rebelled & Zillow caved. Don't look up!

If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a city to make a documentary... In this final bonus post, read about the people, articles, books, and films that helped and inspired us as we made @overshootpod.bsky.social👇

When a government speaks responsibly about climate risks. Iceland's climate minister Jóhannsson: "We believe that confronting climate tipping points and the risks they pose openly is not a sign of 'pessimism' or 'alarmism' but a sign of realism and responsibility." youtu.be/B-0eQnEEsYA?...

In summer 1945, the UK prime minister wrote an extraordinarily prescient memo about the strategic consequences of the atomic bomb Eighty years later, as a new climate reality dawns, something similar needs to happen Read my latest @overshootpod.bsky.social bonus essay👇

Listening recommendation www.overshootpod.com @laurielaybourn.bsky.social does a very good job of translating "all that climate stuff" into our very own realities.

New from me: I spoke to two scientists who originally helped spread the use of carbon capture. They now say it's being misused. Here's why (gift link):

"[AMOC collapse] is a direct threat to national resilience and security" the Icelandic Climate Minister said "It's the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been brought to the National Security Council as a potential existential threat" Significant www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

"The North Atlantic may be approaching a critical tipping point under continued climate change." Be sure to check out the latest State of the Cryosphere report Essential reading for anyone working on or caring about our collective security iccinet.org/statecryo25/

❔| #TTP: Has Europe Given Up its Leadership on Climate Change? ➡️ COP30 takes place amidst increased pessimism about the world’s commitment to climate action. Beset by a host of other challenges, can Europe still maintain a leading role? carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

In 1992, the English Premier League was founded and governments promised to avoid 'dangerous' climate change One of those things didn't work out Our next @overshootpod.bsky.social bonus essay delves deeper into carbon removals and explores why net-zero might be the most dangerous moment in history

Where are we on climate action? The bottom black line is countries that submitted new commitments (on time), the dotted line is global emissions. Blue shading are the commitments. That is the progress 10 years after Paris... unfccc.int/process-and-...

So it's official; the world's governments have failed to take the necessary actions and we're now going to #overshoot the goals of the Paris #climate accord How should we make sense of this moment? And where do we go from here? @overshootpod.bsky.social offers some suggestions

A year ago, Spain was hit by deadly floods They were supercharged by climate change Yet in their wake, climate-denying politicians gained influence - which risks undermining climate action, making people less safe Today we publish new research on this troubling dynamic🧵 www.scri.org.uk/derailment

Episode 5 of 𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁: 𝗡𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘆𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝟭.𝟱°𝗖 is out! As the world heads over 1.5°C, what's the strategy? In front of a live audience, we explore what 1.5°C overshoot means for geopolitics, the law & more Spotify open.spotify.com/episode/547f... Apple podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...

New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳. @swinda.bsky.social esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...

Deliberation in action. People in #Exeter discussing priorities for what we need to do now to help us mitigate future risks as part of this afternoon's @gsiexeter.bsky.social assembly with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social

Informative series of episodes on climate change (+ also an excellent narrating voice!)

📢 The 4th episode of @overshootpod.bsky.social is out now! Last year, Spain was hit by one of the worst disasters in its history It was driven by climate change But it ended up boosting climate deniers... How can the world stop this from happening again? Listen now: overshootpod.com

This is really good @overshootpod.bsky.social @laurielaybourn.bsky.social podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/o...

„This is a national security issue!“ says Dame Angela McLean, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, about the collapse risk of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Interesting discussion on Forecasting Arctic Tipping Points - Building an Early Warning System for Everyone, at #ArcticCircle.

"Let's say we reach net-zero in 2050, the political narrative around climate change is that that's kind of mission accomplished... but that's the most dangerous moment in history! Because at the moment of net-zero... the earth system is at its most destabilized" - @laurielaybourn.bsky.social

New Wicked Problems just dropped - white-hot timing, with @laurielaybourn.bsky.social about his new documentary series @overshootpod.bsky.social: how to navigate the world after 1.5°C. Just this morning the UK's @thecccuk.bsky.social Baroness Brown warned that 2°C by 2050 would be BEST CASE.

Sue Owen asked what her pension savings are being invested in - and was horrified. Ep. 3 of this brilliant new podcast explains how the pensions industry continues to fuel the climate crisis. But you can write to your MP today to call for Government action actionnetwork.org/letters/writ...

Thanks for listening @thetimes.com! Great to see @overshootpod.bsky.social featured in this week's Times Environment newsletter

The third episode of @overshootpod.bsky.social is out now! We meet the pensioner who looked into her pension fund's due diligence on climate change What she found was shocking... Featuring @carbontracker.bsky.social @josephestiglitz.bsky.social and more Listen now👇 www.overshootpod.com

Recommended listen: The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative, in partnership with Planet B Productions, has released a four-part podcast series exploring what will happen if global warming exceeds 1.5C.

Pick of the week! Thanks to @theguardian.com for listening!

Year's worth of British bread lost this decade as extreme weather bites New analysis suggests that wheat production is down by the equivalent of over a year’s supply of bread for the UK, after extreme weather hits harvests. eciu.net/media/press...