St Louis Post-Dispatch: Blake Hurst, a soybean, corn farmer, is frustrated the WH is blaming farmers' woes on things like high prices for seed and fertilizer , not tariffs. “Sometimes I wish they would treat us like adults who are smart enough to figure out what’s going on.”

@SecRollins of USDA, in today's press release on the $12 Billion 'Bridge'' said " four years of disastrous Biden Administration policies resulted in record high input prices and zero new trade deals. " She failed to mention the Record Net Farm Income w/ minimal govt. payments Gaslighting

Purdue - CME Ag Producer Survey: 5% change in this month's survey is interesting considering 75% of rural America voted for Trump, many then citing they 'liked his policies'.

$BTC : Down YTD

U.S. Soybeans for Export: 8.9 mmt inspections crop-yr-to-date is down 7-16% from the same date in 2018 & 2019 during Trump 1.0 Trade War. China is not the only customer missing from the list. Another indication how increased production in Brazil has taken market-share from the U.S.

58% of the 400 ag producers surveyed monthly by Purdue say use of tariffs will make agriculture stronger, more than 2x the # who believe tariffs weaken U.S. agriculture

In giant agribusiness news... 1. Cargill lays of 80 HQ employees (image and StarTribune link) 2. Cargill attributes a one-time gain to $455 million in tax savings from the Big Bill (MSN link) ...that's how the rich get richer www.msn.com/en-us/money/... www.startribune.com/cargill-layo...

BBG Commodity Index: Precious metals at 18% weight of the index have been a big part of this rally . Rallies have failed here 6x in the past 3 years. 7 ? TBD

That clampdown on the Pentagon press corps has done wonders. 🤡 @jamiedupree.bsky.social www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/oc...

Gold: It will be important to see if volume in the lead-month December contract exceeds Friday's 570k, the largest volume since January 2020.

Friday's volume in the lead-month futures contract, on the $91 decline, was the largest since January 2020

Gold: So you wanna trade Gold futures. @cmegroup margin for the 100 oz. contract is now $19k.

Bunge : 52-week high Wednesday on better-than-expected earnings revision

Live Cattle: Closed higher 8 consecutive days, longest upside streak since June 2023 (9 days). Open interest has declined 10k contracts on this rally indicating short-covering has dominated the $-flow.

Gold: Futures-volume on Thursday's decline was the largest since April 2024

Farmer's Expectations for a Bailout & Views about use of Tariffs (Purdue University survey taken mid-September)

As it currently stands, this is what healthcare costs in Rural America is likely to resemble in 2026 vs. 2024.

Always moving the goal posts. 🤡 @financialtimes.com @piie.com www.ft.com/content/3354...

USDA Data is Moving:

Managed-$ funds net-sellers of all 5 major crop-related markets (C,W,S,SBM, & SBO) w/e 9/23 and net-short all 5 for the first time since 4/16/24

Argentine's temporary suspension of taxes on grain & oilseed exports could prove to be a watershed event. It enabled an immediate windfall rise in prices and raised $7+BLN in hard currency in 3 days. Export Taxes have distorted Argentine trade flows for years. It may end soon.

It's not normal to accept $50,000 in cash in a paper bag. Congress must investigate the allegations against Tom Homan (via Bloomberg Opinion)

BBG: Shipping Fees coming soon on China vessels calling at U.S. Ports

BBG: China's monthly soybean imports. There have been no U.S. soybean shipments to China since May & there are currently no sales to China as they turned to Brazil for soybean supply.

As the new crop-year export sales-reporting begins, that there is no line-item for Soybean sales to China is worth noting. I'd wager one would have to go back to pre-1995 to find a year when there were 0 U.S. Soybean sales to China.

Russian #wheat export prices dipped below $230 last week 📉 More weakness ahead? More: sizov.report?utm_campaign... #oatt #agwx #sizovreport

*TRUMP MEDIA REPORTS FILING REGISTRATION FOR FIVE EQUITY ETFS Trump & his family's net worth rises while net-worth of U.S. farmers declines... over 70% of the latter voted for Trump in 2024. They liked his policies.

U.S. Ag Trade to China: When the forecast for the smallest trade in 18 years looks optimistic

Divergent views on the state of U.S. agriculture: Sec. of Agriculture Rollins: 'Golden age' for American farmers is 'around the corner' DTN Reports: Farmer Fears Over Economic Conditions Arkansas Farmers Warn of Crisis as Crop Prices Fall; Call for Ad Hoc Aid

“The re-whitening of LSU?” New by me: open.substack.com/pub/robertma...

Amanda Anisimova has upset Iga Swiatek 6-4, 6-3 in the U.S. Open quarterfinals less than two months after losing to the six-time Grand Slam champion in the Wimbledon final by a 6-0, 6-0 score.

This is a wafer-thin reed on which to rest such a sweeping newsletter. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Crude Oil: At Resistance

Soymeal: All-time record volume Wednesday . Declining open interest on the rally indicates short-covering dominated the $-flow. Managed-$ funds have recently been record net-short soymeal futures & options.

Last week, Boston received a letter from AG Bondi threatening to prosecute officials and withhold funds unless we cooperate with carrying out mass deportations. The US Attorney General asked for a response by today, so here it is: stop attacking our cities to hide your administration’s failures.

Secretary Rollins Blocks Taxpayer Dollars for Solar Panels on Prime Farmland: Government choosing to subsidize crop producers over renewable energy , not to mention tell the crop producers their economic options on the land they own. This from the 'small government' party

Ag Sec. Rollins on USDA's Report (so nobody's getting fired for bearish corn production report ?)

Canada imported more vehicles from Mexico than the US in June for the first time in three decades, underscoring the historic shifts underway as the global auto industry grapples with President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Corn: Another rare 3 s.d. daily price-move, yesterday was beans. With 90 minutes to go, volume has already a new high for this contract as price makes a new contract-low.

Soybeans: Today's intra-day high of $10.15 is a 3 s.d. daily-price move, rare for any market.

Oil: Crude closed lower today; the 7th consecutive day lower, something it has not done since April 2020

Nat Gas:

"WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 1, 2025) – The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) announced today that it will begin an orderly wind-down of its operations" cpb.org/pressroom/Co...

Lutnick two days ago: The Trump Economy has officially arrived! Today: Economy shows weakest job growth over a 3-month period since the Great Recession, excluding 2020

BBG Commodity Index: Gold & Copper are 14% & 5% of the index weight respectively

Copper: Buyers who have held since June 1 are underwater

Bunge: Beat Q2 earnings ests. on better than expected crush margins. Margins in the first 4 weeks of Q3 are about 35% better than the Q2 average.

The vibes presidency, this is what vibes based governing looks like….

President Trump is set to raise taxes on imports arriving from many countries, including Canada and Mexico, with rates up to 50%. See where all of the tariffs stand. nyti.ms/3J7lxpB