Purdue-CME latest survey of Ag Producers (Right Track / Wrong Track) : For perspective, 75% of U.S. ag producers voted for Trump in 2024

BBG Commodity Index: Broke TL support on a Gap, not a good look

Non-Soybean U.S. Trade to China: 2020-2024 were relatively 'normal' years of U.S. Ag trade to China. Non-Soybean Ag-trade ranged from $15-23.5 BLN/year , with a median of $16 BLN.

USTR Greer left China talking of "10's-of-billions" possible future U.S. ag trade to China. This chart provides perspective

From Reuters earlier this morning 14 May 2026 05:16:47 AM - U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT ON CHINA: SOYBEANS ARE ALL TAKEN CARE OF

good morning dear Helene and Happy Birthday! @hmeisler.bsky.social

Refining Margins: Oil-refiners continue to realize 'fat' margins, $1.30/gallon on gasoline & $1.63 on HO/Diesel. The best margins since end-June 2022.

"Big-5 Ags": Managed-$ funds net-added 88k contracts to their net long w/e 5/5 setting a new record at 836k contracts combined net-long. It breaks the 2012 record of 779k contracts; length in soy oil & soy meal is the primary difference vs. 2012.

Wheat: Speaking of buying the dip. investors in the ETF $WEAT added 23% to their presumable long since the April 28 high, their largest position since June 2022.

Crude Oil & Soy Oil daily price-movement today had 4 & 3 std. dev's respectively, each rare for any market.

Purdue Ag Producer Survey : New high for 'wrong track'/ new low for 'right track'

Cattle & Beef Marketing Chain: Where money is made & lost at each step (BBG & Hyrum Egbert)

Oil Refining Margins: Refiners realizing $1.17/gallon on gasoline refining margins, the highest since June 2022. (retail gasoline prices are not coming down anytime soon)

Managed-$ funds in the 'big 5 ags' (C,S,W,SBO, & SBM) stands at 769k contracts a/o 4/28. The record is 779k from August 2012. Looking at price and OI changes since Tuesday, funds are most likely at a new record net-long a/o today's close.

Wheat (HRW): Bunge delivered 2.9 m.b. HRW on first-notice day vs. K futures , contributing to today's weakness. There were no strong stoppers , expect continued re-deliveries.

Wheat: 3 Std. Dev. daily price move today

Soy Oil: Managed-$ funds set a new record net-long a 4th consecutive week at 165k contracts. Previous record 127k dates back to November 2016.

Grains: Passive investors in the ETF's $Corn & $WEAT pared their long-positions for the first time after building record longs over the prior 5 weeks, positions down 17% & 7% respectively week/week.

3 S.D. daily moves in S & P & Crude Oil futures so far today

Passive Investors & Grains: Holdings of the ETF's $CORN & $WEAT hold a record # of units for each breaking 2022 levels. It's not a record in notional values but the highest since 2022 @ $292 mil & $282 mil respectively.

Wheat: Managed-$ funds held a small net-long a/o 3/31, their first net-long since 6/28/2022.

Oil Refining Margins: $1.17/gallon , down 22-cts week/week, but up 37-cts/gallon vs. 30 days ago

Managed-$ Funds: They were net-buyers C+S+W+SBO&SBM for the 9th consecutive week building their net-long to 737k contracts w/e 3/24. Record is 779k from 8/21/2012.

Grain ETF's: Passive investors in $CORN ETF have a record ownership & notional futures value of $231 million a/o Tuesday's close. That compares to $47 million 30 days ago. $WEAT is $261 million, highest since Dec 2022 and nearly doubled vs. 30 days ago.

Oil Refining Margin: Not yet at the 2022 record overall at $1.39/gallon a/o Friday but the diesel component at $2.27/gallon broke the October 2022 record ($1.98/gallon) Friday. Don't hear any calls for DOJ investigations.

On Iran, Gabbard Turned Intelligence Duties Over to Trump

Lot of media attention to Fertilizer prices; week/week & y-o-y comparisons below. Biggest impact on corn, very nitrogen-dependent. Net-revenue for soybeans more favorable vs. corn as a result of spike in N-based fertilizers

Grain ETF's: Passive investors are jumping into $Corn & $Weat ETF's , building long positions last seen when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Dollars-invested are up $79 mil & $90 mil respectively , 2.5X & +58% levels of 2 weeks ago.

Grain ETF's: Passive investors are jumping into $Corn & $Weat ETF's , building long positions last seen when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Dollars-invested are up $79 mil & $90 mil respectively , 2.5X & +58% levels of 2 weeks ago.

Managed-$ Funds (5 ags- c,s,sm,sbo,&w) Based on changes in OI & Price, I estimate they've added to their net-long since Tuesday. A/O Monday close, estd. combined net-long > 600k contracts, largest since May 2022. Let's see what today brings. (Record is 779k August 2012)

(Mom and Dad I need you to keep that house so I have a place to store stuff though, tyvm)

Make that a 4 s.d. daily move

Soybeans: 3 std. deviation daily decline as the pullback approaches trendline support.

When thinking about broader economic impact of rising gasoline & fuel, consider, in past 3 weeks, U.S. diesel is up 28%, gasoline up 18%.. both headed higher nearterm.

Crude Oil & Refining Margins: The focus may be on the up & down in CL but refining margins at 89-cents/gallon are the highest since August 2023. As long as products are well-bid, CL will be well supported (as will gas at the pump) .

Trump's talent pool

We've let the wrong people define masculinity. It’s time we take it back. Real masculinity is doing what's right, and doing it with kindness, empathy and compassion. @principlesfirst.bsky.social

Washington, D.C., February 20, 2026) – USDA is opening the enrollment period for the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, providing $11 billion in one-time bridge payments to row crop producers in response to temporary trade market disruptions and increased production costs.

Gold: Daily Volume in the lead-month contract since Lunar New Year began Tuesday is < 100k contracts (avg 93k), the lowest-volume since Dec 26-27, 2024. 5-day avg volume in the preceding 5-days was 138k. It's anecdotal evidence of Asian-participation in gold futures & derivatives

This is utterly deranged behavior from a U.S. attorney general

Understatement of the century

$WEAT (the ETF): Investment rose 11% over the past 5 days in this essentially long-only ETF. That's the largest week-over-week increase since May 2022 .

Bitcoin Futures: slippery slope

Oh my…

♥️ Bruce youtu.be/wWKSoxG1K7w?...

Kentucky libertarians have managed to hold to their principals pretty well lately, I'm as surprised as you are.

Trump “spent his first year acting as though the 2024 election were the last time he would ever have to give a thought to public opinion,” @jonathanbchait.bsky.social argues. “Now the myth that Trump is invincible has been exploded.”

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”

Some personal news we have renamed our team the Ice Bay Packers

St Louis Post-Dispatch: Blake Hurst, a soybean, corn farmer, is frustrated the WH is blaming farmers' woes on things like high prices for seed and fertilizer , not tariffs. “Sometimes I wish they would treat us like adults who are smart enough to figure out what’s going on.”