How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits... ... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot. Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit. Economists typically say "not so fast"... 🧵1/n

A fascinating podcast on how economic statecraft—through tariff cuts and foreign aid—helped replace cocaine cultivation with asparagus and blueberries. www.npr.org/player/embed...

See my last piece on reciprocal deposits here: #pooletoughtleadership poole.ncsu.edu/thought-lead...

Reminder as we head into the weekend that if you appreciate all the hours I sink into watching political events and bringing you the newsiest clips, please support what I do by signing up for my newsletter. It's vital to support independent media right now and paid subscribers make my work possible.

In grim contrast to the red carpet, Soheila Golestani faces 74 lashes for her Oscar-nominated film, The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Watch this film to understand the repression of Iran’s theocratic regime &why the #WomenLifeFreedom movement is so important: www.thetimes.com/culture/film...

If you are still around San Francisco for the #ASSA2025 meeting, please come check out this session on oligopoly and international trade.

Trade nerds! Famous 1976 handwritten paper where Victor Norman anticipates the new trade theory, esp. Helpman-Krugman Heckscher-Ohlin-Krugman fusion. He gave it to me in October 1997 in Bergen. See full story (amazing) in my Factful Friday from 4 October 2024 lnkd.in/e5Buz3WU

Our survey on #sanctions was accepted at the Annual Review of Economics. Thanks to my amazing co-authors @GFelbermayr, Cliff Morgan, and Costas Syropoulos for this interdisciplinary collaboration. I learned a lot. I wish a healthy and happy 2025 to all!🍾 ideas.repec.org/p/drx/wpaper...

Dear friends and followers, for those of you who are interested, here is the recording of the Nobel banquet speech: shapingwork.mit.edu/news/daron-a...

Trade economists: After you publish your first trade paper, add yourself to Alan Deadorff's Family Tree of Trade Economists. public.websites.umich.edu/~alandear/tr... The cohort sizes suggest the field is in decline, but I think participation has fallen. Sign up!

Just wrapped up a fantastic debate in my int'l trade class! Two IU debate team members discussed Trump's proposed tariffs, starting with opening speeches for & against, then leading class discussions to refine arguments using course material. A highly-recommended class activity!

Important evidence based reality check from @piie.com @melovely_max Trump’s promised tariffs will hit large flows of electronics, machinery, autos, and chemicals www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Smoot and Hawley back in the news . . . abcnews.go.com/Business/smo...

Killer paper! One of the best analysis of the effects of a trade agreement on individual workers.

@thomsampson.bsky.social made one here: go.bsky.app/G3dqAYg

This is very useful. Is there a starter pack for trade?

Submit a paper to RMET and join us in Banff, Canada, May 23-25. Submissions due January 17,2025. Emily Blanchard will give a keynote talk. www.freit.org/RMET/2025/

The best simple explanation of the dollar's role is still Charles Kindleberger's old analogy with the role of English as the language of international business. Foreigners learn English partly because we're such a big market, but also because so many others speak English 2/

Revised WP with @econlessmann.bsky.social shows it actually pays to be a "Science Kardashian" on social media! Kardashian virologists' pre-COVID papers started to get significantly more citations after COVID compared to their coauthors' papers during COVID. www.cesifo.org/en/publicati...

Just in case you are in the mood for some light reading in international economics: poole.ncsu.edu/thought-lead...

Trump may be up to something after all. One easy way to bring prices down is to make everyone very poor.

A 25% tariff on Mexico plus mass deportations? Looks like we're Making Heckscher-Ohlin Great Again! If high tariffs are implemented (a big if), we should either expect a massive increase in prices or a spike in immigration of manufacturing labor. Either way, US workers wouldn't gain much.

Just to have posted something here... It is a great day in Singapore!

Good to know that it's not just the Bannon-Lighthizer spin on trade history at play in the Trump administration . . . www.politico.com/newsletters/...

Just back from giving a talk to 2nd year students on how to approach research, how to write a paper. Abhijit was coming after me (good thing he didn't go first, tough act to follow!) Here are my slides... www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/0pm2m...

Trump’s tariffs fit perfectly into his broader political strategy: making himself the center of attention. Tariffs will once again force businesses and governments to come to him, begging for exemptions. It isn’t about policy—it is about control, leverage, and staying in the spotlight.

Will TRTA be a serious proposal? The Trump Reciprocal Trade Act turns over US tariff sovereignty to other countries. Strict reciprocity: we impose on them what they impose on us. Tariffs differ by product and country. MFN/WTO out the window. www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/age...

It was terrific talking about a depressing subject with the incomparable @soumayakeynes.bsky.social. Would Trump’s tariffs really be that bad? ft.com/content/bbce... via @financialtimes.com In short, yes.

Peru is about to inaugurate the Port of Chancay, a massive project funded by China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping. The port will connect South America to Asia. Expect major tensions with the incoming US administration, as I argue in this (excellent) BBC piece. @piie.com www.bbc.com/news/article...

Architects Sahar Kamaleddin and Nima Safdari are designing some wonderful mid-rise apartments using brick and tile in Iran This is in Urmia