Happy to see this out in the world! In a nutshell: people are more willing to support violence when they don't see readily available nonviolent alternatives.

Very happy to see my paper, "Unconditional Loyalty: The Survival of Minority Autocracies", finally out in the American Political Science Review @apsrjournal.bsky.social Quick thread below🧵

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨 What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description? We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers. Two main contributions... 🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

A few further thoughts on Trump's Syria announcement. First, beyond the obvious benefit for Syrians, it might have a broader impact: it demonstrates, for the first time I can remember, that American sanctions aren't a one-way ratchet. They can be lifted if conditions change. 🧵

Clashes in Tripoli after weeks of build-up between rival forces. The trigger was the killing of Abdelghani "Ghnewa" al-Kikli, the city's most powerful militia leader, in circumstances that are as yet unclear - apparently during a meeting.

In case you ever feel like your vote doesn't matter, know there is one person in suburban Montréal who did, literally, cast the deciding vote.

Personal news- I’ll be joining the University of Georgia’s Department of International Affairs as an Assistant Professor in 2026, after a postdoc at Harvard’s Weatherhead Center this year. I’m really excited for these next steps and deeply thankful to everyone who’s supported me along the way.

New in @foreignaffairs.com: We explore why justice for Assad’s victims is essential for Syria’s stability, and why getting it right is no easy task.

Excited to share my new article in the American Journal of Political Science (@ajpseditor.bsky.social)! "Endogenous Opposition: Identity and Ideology in Kuwaiti Electoral Politics" explores how authoritarian elections generate opposition to incumbent autocrats. Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/ukrer...

Very excited that our article about the redistribution of political power within precolonial institutions under indirect colonial rule is available on First View @apsrjournal.bsky.social @msaleh-econhistory.bsky.social www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I joined brilliant colleagues on two podcasts about home & belonging in the Syrian context. The Fire These Times (w/ @leilashami.bsky.social & @ayoub.bsky.social) was recorded before Assad's fall. The @newlinesmag.bsky.social (w/ Ammar Azzouz & @lsmwilson.bsky.social) was recorded after. Links below

An important piece by Alia Malek “It is easy to look at a dark past and warn of a dark future, but we should not mistake that for seeing the future. What did we learn from Syria? That we misread it, and condemn it to misery, when we do not listen to the people at the heart of it.” menasky

I'm not teaching my grad course 'Civil Resistance: How It Works' this semester. But here is an abridged version of the course schedule, readings, and films I used the last time I taught it (in 2022). Just in case it's useful. drive.google.com/file/d/14RRJ...

Meanwhile in Egypt, Egyptian authorities arrested 20 Syrians on December 8 and 10 Syrians on December 9 following their attempts to gather for public celebrations following the fall of the Assad regime. In the time since then, 6 of them have been physically released. eipr.org/press/2024/1...

Millions today across Syria are celebrating the downfall of a system that has ruled the people with an Iron fist for decades. Hama - Assy square now demonstrating an end to that bloody era.

Party in Damascus carrying on into the night

I wrote a short essay for @JoDemocracy on the remarkable fall of Bashar Al Assad www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclu...

Funny that rulers-for-life buy fleets of super-expensive cars but stash them in giant garages where they collect dust b/c they can't take them out for joyrides. Not standard luxury cars accessible to bourgeois consumers but "halo" rides like Maybachs, Bentleys, etc. www.cnn.com/2024/12/10/w...

The heroic White Helmets (Syria's civil defense) who've been at the frontlines to save Syrians under the rubble are at Saydnaya to help free detainees in hidden cells. States should ensure they have the resources, technical support & assistance from intl rescue teams to work quickly and efficiently.

I’m not really worthy to write anything about beautiful Syria today but they asked me to and so I tried through tears to write some words that are inadequate but here they are anyway: Dawn in Damascus @newlinesmag.bsky.social newlinesmag.com/spotlight/da...

The speed at which loyalist Asadists, including journalists, politicians, and social media accounts, flipped sides is staggering. They abandoned 13 years of blind support as cowardly as Assad himself fled. This happens in all collapsing dictatorships, but the speed of it here is just unbelievable.

I'm of a certain age that the Arab spring defined my entire life. It was THE "formative moment," the lens through which I continue to see every political issue. عيش حرية عدالة اجتماعية I still remember every chant, and the early days of Twitter watching updates filter in. When ben ali fled.

Basic background resources for those who not familiar with Saydnaya (also Sednaya/Seydnaya/Sadnaya) & other notorious Syrian prisons such as Tadmor (destroyed 2015), Mazzeh (Air Force Intelligence/Mazzeh Mil Airport), & Qism Falastin (Palestine Branch/Branch 235). The sheer magnitude of this. 1/6

This photo is of me and my friends from Adra Prison in rural Damascus, the Damascus Central Prison, taken in 2011. We were political prisoners for participating in the Syrian revolution. Now, with the news of this dreadful prison’s liberation, my heart is filled with joy and optimism for the future.

A video showing the toppling of the dictator Hafez al-Assad’s statue in the Syrian city of Latakia and the removal of the old regime’s flag. Crowds are celebrating this morning for Syria’s new future.

It took 13 years of incredible revolution, war, displacement, and devastation, but the Assad family's 54-year brutal rule has finally ended today. 12 million displaced people and refugees can now return home, and thousands of prisoners have been freed. Truly extraordinary!

To all the analysts jumping on here to warn about tomorrow, Syrians are ten steps ahead of you. Have some basic human empathy and let those celebrating the release of the unjustly detained, the reuniting of families, the hopes of return, and the end of a brutal regime do so in peace.

I know people will be angry but I wrote this in the immediate aftermath of Oct 7 and I couldn't just sit with it. newlinesmag.com/first-person...

📣 Call for Papers 📣 With Caroline Schlaufer, I'm organizing a panel on policy processes in authoritarian settings, for submission to the Conference on Policy Process Research (14-17 May '24, Syracuse University). Deadline 10 October. More information: tinyurl.com/muvs6mky policysky Dictatorsky

If you are interested in joining our community at the Center for International Security @ the Hertie School, consider applying to our fellowship(s)! www.hertie-school.org/en/internati...

"Under the guise of saving refugees, the UAE is running an elaborate covert operation to back one side in Sudan’s spiraling war—supplying powerful weapons and drones, treating injured fighters and airlifting the most serious cases to one of its military hospitals", according to many officials.

The African Politics Conference Group (APCG) Online Colloquium is now accepting applications for papers for this fall (Oct, Nov, Dec 2023). Please apply by October 5, 2023, here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... Please re-tweet and share with your networks. DM me with any questions!

The latest issue of MERIP is out: "Journalism and Activism in an Age of Transnational Repression." I had a blast editing this issue alongside an exceptional group of editors: Ayça Alemdaroğlu, Marc Owen Jones, and Kevin Schwartz.

Menasky Polisky The APSA MENA organized section is migrating its social media presence to Bluesky. Scholars working on the region, please join, forward, and tell your networks.

Dictatorsky, polisky, CivMilSky It's worth noting that even among cases of coup-borne democratization, the transitions had much less to do with the generals being pro-democracy good guys and more to do with other dynamics outside the coup

Starting a habit here on Dictatorsky of showcasing recent papers on autocracies (reach out if you want your work featured). Will try to do this twice a week. Polisky For our first entry, @risabrooks12.bsky.social & Peter White (who needs to join us) at the JPR. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

This week’s MENA Academy roundup comes to you from sunny Scotland! Check out new articles on Egypt, UAE-Israel normalization, and more! Menasky open.substack.com/pub/abuaardv...

Sharing my article in Comparative politics! I introduce “competitive involvement” as a specific type of international involvement during transitions: when multiple states intervene to support opposing sides. I develop this theory through a structured comparison of Egypt (mainly), Sudan &Myanmar. 1/5

The African Politics Conference Group (APCG) Online Colloquium is calling for applications for workshop papers in Oct., Nov., Dec. 2023. Apply by October 5, 2023, here: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F... // from @gofosu at twitter // polisky

True, but the average grades have not seen any improvement! Students who struggled prior to AI continue to receive subpar grades. At least this is my experience in my classes. Perhaps the evaluation criteria have evolved just as quickly.

Growing transnational repression?! FBI agents visited several Sikh activists in California to warn them that their lives were at risk. This comes after the assassination in Canada attributed to the Indian government by the Canadian intelligence. theintercept.com/2023/09/23/s...