Hawks (wanted to hold rates at 4%) & doves (voted to cut 0.25% & won) on the MPC based on the latest minutes. Governor Andrew Bailey switched sides & swung the vote in favour of a cut but it was close. It's all down to whether inflation persistence or weak demand is the bigger worry

That's a lot of red in tech 😔

Maths

I don't usually make forecasts but... I know how one person will be voting in the FOMC today. And that's the problem

The next Fed Chair could radically reshape markets and the frontrunner is the one Wall St fears most. As Trump prepares to name Powell’s successor in early 2026, investors are scrambling to price in what each candidate means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Here’s the breakdown👇

Artists told they can't use blue paint Bakers told they can't use yeast Musicians told they can't play the note C Those would be ridiculous. Yet the government now plans to stop investors using the safest ingredient in their portfolio: money market funds inside Stocks & Shares ISAs

Just recorded a Budget reaction video for investors. In it I walk through the market moves in real time (gilts, sterling, FTSE 250), what the OBR leak did to prices, and what that “steady as she goes” reaction really tells us. The video’s up now if you want the detail... youtube.com/live/sC0mCxO...

OBR leak made sterling rally vs USD prematurely. Then Reeves' speech caused an initial wobble but eventually there was a rally as fiscal rules weren't breached and most of the content was known already

The long-delayed Sept jobs report finally arrived after the 43-day shutdown, offering the first clear look at the labour market in weeks. Payrolls beat expectations with +119k jobs, but unemployment rose to 4.4%, a four-year high. A strong headline paired with a worrying backdrop

❄️❄️❄️

China’s official gold purchases seem modest, but analysts estimate that real demand could be as much as 10x what’s reported. Huge unreported buying is helping send gold prices to record highs — and upending market signals. on.ft.com/3LCucBP

Scotland gets the same investment-grade credit rating as the UK (Aa3/AA) from Moody’s and S&P for its first “kilt” bond sale since the 17th century. Funding and credit stability rest on the UK’s devolution framework, with most money transferred from Westminster on.ft.com/3XpqjCL

Alpha is hard Love this disgruntled investor's quote: "There is not much else to say about that other than the fees hurt. If Paul had just invested his own money [in the S&P 500] since 1994, I think we would all agree he would not be as wealthy as he is today running Elliott." on.ft.com/4oXOmo4

Gita Gopinath making a lot of sense here: UK’s fiscal woes go beyond slow growth, frequent policy changes create uncertainty. Moving to a single annual budget & rule assessment could boost stability & growth without sacrificing fiscal discipline. UK needs less volatility, more credible policy

The expensive parts of Mag 7 sold off this week NVDA -7.1% TSLA -5.9% MSFT -4.1% META -4.1% GOOG -0.8% AAPL -0.7% AMZN 0.1% AI hype cooled as investors questioned rich valuations and slow payoffs. Fed doubts, weak data, and profit-taking drove a rotation out of big tech into safer ground

I'm a convert for microsuction - I can hear beautifully now just in time for my Bank of England livestream this evening. The lady removing the wax was almost performing an exorcism at one point as it didn't want to budge. Look at that malleus!

'I could smell the onions and the mustard'

"UBS chair warns of ‘looming systemic risk’ from private credit ratings" Poor timing, I shot my private credit video over the weekend 😔 on.ft.com/3LeYgU2

"Research" by Barclays: "Over 40% of people lose money after following finfluencer ‘advice’". The article does suggest getting verification for the good influencers which isn't a bad idea www.ftadviser.com/social-media...

Ooof.

Ronald Reagan’s 1987 radio address on tariffs is trending again. Here’s what he actually said about trade, protectionism, and American leadership. Full transcript: www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/spe...

Failed to dodge the showers

Edinburgh castle failing to render, likely thanks to the AWS outage

Coinbase, Perplexity and Xero down due to AWS outage I thought one of the arguments for cloud computing was to avoid these stability issues?

👀

This is what you requested... ... not sure the answer is what you expected (if you had read my column and you would have known this)

🚨 The First Brands Collapse: A Private Credit Wake-Up Call US auto parts maker First Brands filed for bankruptcy (Sept 28, 2025) with $10–50B liabilities vs $1–10B assets — and $2.3B in assets vanished. The case has shaken confidence in the $2T private credit market

I've been called out on my abnormal hand movements

Perplexity is pony

@robarmstrong.bsky.social and @darioperkins.bsky.social doing a valuable public service in this morning’s Unhedged newsletter: on.ft.com/4nOovPA

Very interesting article on how the “Liberation Day” tariff shock in April 2025 triggered a rare reversal: the US dollar fell even as market volatility spiked, undermining its usual safe-haven role cepr.org/voxeu/column...

Here we go

B of A: “.. Big large cap outflows: Sales of single stocks in the last two weeks were the 3rd-largest of any 2-week period since ’08, driven by large caps ..” [Subramanian]

The gilt market will be breathing a sigh of relief. Rachel Reeves signals big tax rises in the next Budget, citing wars, higher borrowing costs, Trump tariffs, and a productivity downgrade as game-changers for UK fiscal policy. Iron discipline but tough choices ahead. More: on.ft.com/476sShR

Will this quash the appetite for this brand of economic populism? "US offers financial lifeline to Argentina’s Javier Milei" on.ft.com/3KdLTad

Bought a Sony ZV-E10M2 to improve video quality but... 🍊

British households put a record £103bn into individual savings accounts (Isas) in the latest annual figures for the tax-friendly savings vehicles... 😀 revealing a strong appetite for the certainty of cash 😔 "UK households prefer cash, as they plough record sums into Isas" on.ft.com/4nwikig

Independent

* FED SAYS GOVERNOR MIRAN DISSENTS IN FAVOR OF HALF-POINT CUT

New FOMC projections: Higher GDP Growth Lower Unemployment Higher Inflation Lower Interest Rates

What difference does it make? Changing and not changing membership of the Fed a day before the policy decision is not likely to change the outcome. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

S&P Index vs Active Europe Mid-Year 2025 just published: Long-term results show nearly all GBP global equity funds lagged—97% underperformed their benchmark over 10 years www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spi...

A sovereign borrowing at higher rates than one of its companies 😟

Volatility isn't risk - here's a nice example of a high yield fund vs global equity. Both fell by about 30% in 2020 but equity rebounded more strongly. Notice the low volatility of the high yield fund, it's very low at 5% vs 15% for global equity. Lots of people reaching for yield right now 😟

Long duration gilts: old man's crypto 👴📈

Genius

US jobs numbers look very weak with just 22,000 jobs added in August and June revised down to a _loss_ of 13,000 jobs. Is the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics going to get re-fired?

Smells like autumn

Problem - structural decline in buying of gilts by DB pension schemes pushing up yields Solution - make it easier / more attractive for UK retail investors to buy gilts e.g. scrap income tax on coupons as well as capital gain on gilts, launch "Gilts Direct", educate people about gilts