Quite like old times Central bankers are arguing over policy. Argentina is expected to request a US bailout. It is all very nostalgic. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

More policy insights There are many central bank speakers. Markets may want to know why Fed Governor Miran seems so pessimistic about the US. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The kids are alright? Young US citizens are struggling to find work. This seems to be due to a hiring freeze, not because AI is replacing graduates secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Quantities of money The Bank of England is slowing its quantitative tightening, as the Bank of Japan starts selling more assets. Both actions are reasonable. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Weaker employment > stronger inflation The Fed has signalled that labour market weakness in the US takes priority. One Fed member seems to have a dire view of the US. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Becoming a bit British? The Federal Reserve will cut rates, but dissent is likely. Perhaps the Fed becomes more British in its policy disputes? secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

What difference does it make? Changing and not changing membership of the Fed a day before the policy decision is not likely to change the outcome. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The Fed and the future Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, mainly to see how worried the Fed is about the future. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Price perception problems US durable goods inflation erodes spending power, but may not affect consumer’s price perceptions. Rising food prices are a risk. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Pricing data shaping policy expectations More official US price data is due. US consumer price numbers are less reliable and rely on a greater share of guesswork than in the past. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Details matter China and the US both offer official price data for August. The details, rather than the headline, are what is likely to matter. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Aprés nous, le déluge? While the French political turnover invites parallels to 1990s Italy, Italy did manage its debt well over that period. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Is the information golden age fool's gold? While the number of data sources grows daily, reliable official figures are needed to anchor big data’s relationship to reality. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Payrolls without precision Labor market data quality issues are well established, but today’s US numbers should fit the broad narrative of a weaker US economy. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Beige or red flags? The Beige Book seemed to mark a change of tone, with concerns about the economic outlook more prominent. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Are economists bothered by bonds? Bond yields rose yesterday, but most advanced economies have huge reserves of private wealth that could be mobilized. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

A gilded age The gold price rally started with central bank buying. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates built on that. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Politics and economics overlap Political decisions generally have some economic impact, and there is a lot of politics in the world today. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The politics of debt The Dutch government survived its vote of no confidence, but French bond yields continue to reflect political risks secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

50% on US trade taxes on imports from India rose to 50%; this increase will have little direct impact on US inflation, but maintains uncertainty. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Scapegoating the Federal Reserve While markets hope checks may limit the politicization of the Federal Reserve, the Fed seems to be the next target for scapegoat economics. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

A reluctant defence of Powell One can disagree with Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s policies, but an independent Fed has prevented higher real borrowing costs. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Inflation, disinflation, and deflation UK inflation rates increased, but disinflation is evident, and the data was distorted. Japan’s export prices seem to be falling, selectively. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Nothing There is nothing of any importance on the data calendar today. That is a dangerous position in a social media world. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Wars and trade wars Markets are likely to have a muted reaction to Friday’s events in Alaska. EU trade data offers political interest. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Up and down the supply chain A deluge of data allows economists to look at how trade taxes are affecting different points in the supply chain. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Stories versus reality UK evidence reminds investors that private sector data stories need to be compared to reliable, independent official figures. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Seeping taxes, suspending data US consumer price data show trade taxes seeping into consumer price data as expected. However, unwelcome official data might be suspended in future. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Can US inflation be hedged? US July consumer price inflation details will show more trade tax. The options for hedging US inflation are getting more complex. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The importance of being independent In a world of big data, does it matter if official numbers are politically biased? It matters more than ever. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

All that's gold does not glitter Media reports suggest that the US has been taxing certain gold imports for the past four months. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Trading around the US Data shows that global trade is continuing, with countries exporting around the US. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Domestic demand drivers Trade has attracted all the attention recently, but domestic demand is far more important. Europe and Japan offer some insights today. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The bigger picture on trade US trade data for goods and services are due. There is unlikely to be any evidence of tariffs turning the US into an export powerhouse. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Fragility The US labor market is fragile. US President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner reveals more serious fragility. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Boycott economics Economic nationalism rightly focuses on trade taxes as a major disruptive factor. But consumer boycotts are also happening. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The taxation burden descends US President Trump concluded domestic consumer tax hikes; attention may shift to whether courts will overturn them before the pain is felt. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EclnSky

US inflation in isolation Unchanged US rates were no surprise. US Chair Powell struck a somewhat hawkish tone, although signals on growth hint at future weakness. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Perceptions of political puppeteering The US Federal Reserve is universally expected to leave rates unchanged. Can anyone dissent without accusations of political control? secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The data in focus US June trade data is due. It is very unlikely to show the US has been transformed into an export powerhouse. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Bad news or good news? The increase in US consumers’ tax burden was better than the worst case scenario, but still means higher taxes. Markets expected this. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

That @bloomberg.com can have a headline “EU agrees to pay 15% tariff on most exports to US” shows just how far economic illiteracy has gone. And the months of economists explaining how tariffs work makes this extraordinary level of ignorance even more inexcusable.

Applying tariffs Consumer appliance prices are falling across developed economies—except the US. Trade taxes are raising prices for US consumers. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Independence Day Federal Reserve Chair Powell defended Fed independence, publicly correcting US President Trump and blaming tariffs for higher costs. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Can the Fed be saved? Political attacks on the Federal Reserve make legitimate rate cuts more difficult, and challenge perceptions of institutional independence. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Who to scapegoat when trade deals are done? As trade “deals” emerge, who will become the scapegoat next time things go wrong? Do trade deals break, or will new scapegoats be found? secure.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Independence in focus Federal Reserve independence remains in focus. Economically, things generally go better if central bank independence is not a focus. secure.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky