Is all politics local? There can be an information gap between domestic and international investors when considering political risks. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Could go up, could go down The Federal Reserve minutes showed financial market participants expecting a rate cut next year, but with views on both sides from policymakers. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

More misunderstandings US attacks on Iran and ending the Iranian oil sanctions waiver have only had a limited impact on oil prices. Investors downplay US threats. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Political Interference As in other areas of life, politics can interfere to try and shape economics. Politics has elevated the focus on some of today’s data. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Wealth goes "woke" The great wealth transfer creates younger, more female, and more openly queer wealth owners. Queer investors need to invest differently. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Policy and data problems Federal Reserve Chair Warsh rightly identifies problems with pretending official data is precise. Other data sources are also imprecise. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Hints of hosiery Federal Reserve Chair Warsh speaks at the ECB’s central bank summer camp. There may be a desire to appear to be politically independent. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Dull resilience There is nothing outstanding expected from today’s data. That is the story of the year—dull resilience in spite of the dramatic headlines. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Crude and machismo Markets are unconcerned by military exchanges between Iran and the US. Investors did not expect the Versailles memorandum to run smoothly. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Oil prices - past, present, and futures Crude oil futures prices are at pre-war levels, but that’s based on expectations. Oil refineries cannot refine expectations www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Murky situations Politics, policy, and war are creating a somewhat murky situation, but the bias to optimism has not seriously been challenged. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Interesting bias comparison from Bloomberg headlines: "Euro-zone business activity shows resilience to Iran war fallout" "UK Economy shrinks for second straight month, PMI shows" Leaving aside the issue of the divorce of PMIs from reality, the Euro reading was 49.5 and the UK reading 49.4.

Seen as I was walking (slowly) to the Zurich office this morning. Subtle reminder it is Pride month. (This did require me stop in the middle of Bahnhofstrasse and behave like a tourist, which is a form of behaviour that normally causes me to tut with justifiable British annoyance).

Equity volatility, economists' indifference Equity markets have been moving about. This does not reflect changing economic fundamentals, allowing economists to maintain an aloof air. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Sticking with the optimistic bias There have been heated exchanges over the Gulf, but Iranian officials’ cautious optimism has reinforced investors’ optimism bias. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Fighting fake news Fake news can influence economic policy by telling a sensational story. Economists need to communicate better to get the truth out there. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Little of substance There is little of substance to divert markets. Oil is trickling through the Strait of Hormuz. UK politics is politicking. The ECB is erring. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Say more The Federal Reserve’s statement was terse. It explained unemployment was stable (Chair Warsh thought it important. Markets knew it already). www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Fed fun Today’s Federal Reserve meeting is less about policy (assumed unchanged), and more about what authority Fed Chair Warsh can exert. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

How to do a rate hike In contrast to the recent ECB policy error, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates appropriately—moving from an accommodative stance. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Rise and fall Oil prices fell on news of a deal between Iran and the US. The shifting relative status of Iran and the US is economically significant. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Assault and batteries The Gulf war is incentivizing investment in renewable energy. Part of that is making better use of the solar panels already in existence. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Carrying on, without keeping calm The ECB policy error was expected, and a weak justification was offered. A further unnecessary rate hike is possible. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

How bad is the ECB error? The ECB is almost certain to commit policy error today. However, the damage from the unnecessary rate increase should be limited. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Inflation bonanza The political and policy consequences of US inflation are probably more important than any demand destruction www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Trade time Trade data likely suggests that charging US consumer tariffs has done little to alter their appetite for imported goods. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #ExonSky

Market moves more than economic shifts Markets are moving on perceptions of risk—changes in perceptions of the economic outlook are more muted. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Does AI need DEI? Capturing profit from a diverse and inclusive workforce may require a company to change the way it does business. The same can be said for AI. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Why work matters The “no fire” element of the US labor market is important in keeping fear in check, allowing consumers to use savings to pay higher prices. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

They're back US President Trump is proposing more tariffs. This round will probably have less of an inflation impact than last year’s tariffs. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

War and trade war costs US President Trump attempted to counter the costs of the war policy by reducing costs associated with the trade war. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Managing a "no deal" world There has been no real progress on an Iran-US deal, but markets are getting used to that. Consumers are still managing to spend. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Farewell to globalisation? Developed economy manufacturing is showing distinct signs of becoming ever more regional. Other markets remain more global www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Extending the ceasefire Markets are prepared to give some credibility to US reports of an imminent ceasefire extension, without being entirely convinced. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Firing, not ceasing The US-Iran ceasefire seems to have an awful lot of firing. The market response remains muted, with political pressures building in the US. www.ubs.com/global/en/we...

Idle speculation In the absence of proper economic information (and thus valuable economic analysis), markets have only idle speculation to drive them. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Looking for consequences US airstrikes against Iran have had limited immediate market consequences. Investors’ focus is on longer-term impacts from the war. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

The bias to optimism reasserts itself Iranian confirmation of progress in talks with the US has allowed markets to rediscover their inherent bias to looking on the bright side. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Is wealth worth anything? For a wealth effect to have an economic effect, someone needs to hold some cash somewhere. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Sense or sentimentality? There is a lot of sentiment data clogging up the calendar today. Quite how strong the relationship is with reality is questionable. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Trickle or treat? A trickle of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz. That potentially diminishes physical shortages, but also reduces pressures on Iran. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Capping inflation Politically sensitive prices are rising. Politicians want to be seen to be doing something about that. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Markets' cynicism premium Reports of a delayed US attack on Iran as talks are going well led to a muted market response. Investors seem to have a cynicism premium. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

MORE MARKET ANGST A fire at an Emirati nuclear plant, US President Trump posting in capital letters, and Iranian media reports equate to more market angst. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Are the kids really alright? Young people worry politicians, especially when not in employment, education, or training. However, that group may be hidden entrepreneurs. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Saying stability without substance The China-US summit offered statements of stability—not a word associated with recent US policy. It did not offer much of substance. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Resilience - economics 1, politics 0 Data continues to show resilient economies as oil prices increase. Politicians are proving less resilient. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky

Beefing about prices US President Trump claimed not to think about Americans’ financial situation. Soaring inflation perceptions mean markets bet Trump does care. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky