This paper is WILD: “Nestlé’s entry into LMIC formula markets caused about 212,000 infant deaths per year among mothers without clean water access… and has led to approximately 10.9 million excess infant deaths between 1960 and 2015.” www.nber.org/system/files...

A blog on Development and Climate Finance Targets: The Worst of All Worlds. www.cgdev.org/blog/develop... TLDR: We really need climate finance agreements to have targets for adaptation and development finance in the poorest countries ....

Die Hard is about a (prospective) bondholder claiming coupon and principal payments on (now obsolete) debt securities. Die Hard is a sovereign finance movie.

Had a request to look at some stuff in the latest WEO. For fun, I compiled the countries with the highest projected interest to government revenue ratios in 2025. Egypt and Pakistan are on a league of their own, 6 of the top 10 are African countries, and notable presence of India in this group 🧐

IDA reaches $100 B replenishment which should allow it to sustain current program levels around $33-$34 B a year in low cost financing. (1/3) www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...

Talking with the FT about the Ivory Coast / World Bank swap deal. Couple of good things on this one. Managed to drive down intermediation costs by side stepping SPV structure and allowed the country to allocate proceeds from transaction. on.ft.com/3BhkuzW

This IMF Independent Evaluation Office sounds VERY promising. Who could have thought that side stepping rules for large loans due political interference of large shareholders was a problem? 😉 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Christmas has arrived early for the debt community with the release of the World Bank International Debt Report 2024 🎅 After a quick scan (still have to go through the data), two things caught my attention 🧵 www.worldbank.org/en/programs/....

Another debt swap backed by a loan instead of a bond issuance. Something I really like about this transaction is that secures long-term funding in local currency, reducing costs while improving resilience to external shocks www.reuters.com/business/env...

Fifty. Six. Percent. Increase. In. The deaths. Of. Pregnant. People.

1/6 After reading Kevin Gallagher and Mark Sobel's new piece on debt relief, I note that I am also reading Martin Daunton's very interesting new book in which, early in the book, he discusses how a US declaration of non-intervention in... www.omfif.org/2024/11/dist...

Great overview of status and main characteristics of the wave of recent debt restructurings by JPM. Useful to think about comparisons with historical benchmarks. In most cases NPV relief is below historical median of 38-42%. A harbinger of serial restructurings?

Are you passionate about economics? Do you want to do a master which will change your life and help you change the world. Come to the Geneva Graduate Institute!

To understand global south anger at the COP29 climate finance goal it's crucial to understand two key numbers. 1️⃣ "At least" $300bn/year - developed nations agreed to "take the lead" in mobilising this for developing countries 2️⃣ $1.3tn/year - a wider, vaguer goal They sound pretty big! But...

IMF surcharges reached US$ 1.9 billion, equivalent to 53% of lending income and 39% of operational income in FY2024. Mind you, these profits were made from the most vulnerable borrowers of the Fund. Unfortunately, the recent reform failed to address the structural problems of the policy.

Public statisticians specialised in development assistance and climate finance accounting gimmicks looking at the COP29 text.

Obsessing over quantity and forgetting quality of climate finance is the Baku COP’s biggest failure. Not that $300bn is too low to meet demands for action and justice (though that’s true). It’s that the world’s poorest & least responsible for climate change will be robbed by it.

The co-facilitators of the UN Financing for Development Conference have just published an elements paper based on over 300 contributions. Important document as it sets the blueprint fro the conference next year in Spain. financing.desa.un.org/sites/defaul...

The problem with external debt financing of investment in adaptation is the currency mismatch. Projects with a lot of local content which will not expand export capacity. A recipe for chronic indebtedness and financial fragility.

A thread with interesting tidbits from the new IMF guidance note on sovereign restructurings, as I read along🧵⤵️ www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

For those negotiating in Baku on the #NCQG climate finance goal @edwickstead.bsky.social and I have calculated two new scenarios in our @cgdev.bsky.social model of baselines relating to multilateral development banks and the latest negotiating text 1/5

Quite interesting that the last two swap deals have been funded through loans instead of bond issuances. Is this a sign of lack of appetite from the market?

Nothing that some hard currency debt financing on critical infrastructure for adaptation with no substantial returns cannot make worse… sorry, I meant fix 🤣

The new #COP29 finance draft text is out and here’s the key part

++NEW CLIMATE FINANCE TEXT++ Cut from 25 pages to 10. Number of bits in square brackets, which are undecided, cut from 415 to 46. It contains 2 options for the goal "emanating from the ministerial consultations” - one with developing country priorities and one with developed.

US set to forgive US$ 4.5 billion in loans to Ukraine. To place this figure in context, it’s equivalent to 4.5 times the debt forgiven to 31 countries through the IMF CCRT between 2020 and 2022 (US$ 967 million). Debt relief has always been a matter of political will. www.reuters.com/world/biden-...

What a piece on academic fraud in business schools. Its mind blowing how much tampering with data has been normalised. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc...

Important new article on RMB internationalization by @marinazucker.bsky.social

While I'm on a tear about finance solutionism; here is more evidence that insurance instruments aka "risk transfer" is/are *not* climate finance: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Focus on the headline climate finance figure risks forgetting that the devil is in the details of quality (more grant financing + longer maturity), additionality (on top of development financing) & transparency (clear definition) on.ft.com/4fpon4J

Repeatedly, Cuba’s total exodus over the past 4 years (including the pandemic!) is estimated at over 20% of its nominal population Over 2 of every 10 people have left in less than half a decade

The auctioneer for the Mozambican tuna boats got in touch (to say thanks for helping the sale get more visibilty via @alphaville.ft.com). So… any questions for them regarding the auction?

Vasili Grossman sobre la tragedia de un genocidio

If there is a US Congress hearing and people go on the record, does it remain a conspiracy theory? 🤔🍿 www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

Acemoglu, Johnson and Williams won the Nobel prize for applying economics to the very things economics is inherently bad at figuring out. Brendan Greeley has some thoughts.... www.ft.com/content/1e25...

💡Renewable energy is crucial for sustainable development. A new UNCTAD report, analyses global trade flows and trade policies along solar and wind energy value chains, to see how trade policy could give a boost to renewable energy's potential.

Hot take: The IMF's announced reforms to the PRGT and surcharge policies look good on the surface but actually represent a problematic direction for the Fund 🧵

On the changes to the surcharge policy…

Quick estimation of impact of increasing IMF surcharge threshold from 187.5 to 300% based on the FT piece by Stiglitz. The results show a mixed picture. There would a sharp drop in countries affected, but those that remain would still pay over US$ 4 billion to the IMF in next 3 years.

Simplifying the thresholds of the risk management framework of the Fund, including Exceptional Access and Surcharges is a no brainer. Its crazy that the IMF board wants to keep the current convoluted structure on.ft.com/47YHDmP

Remember the Doing Business Index? Welp, it's baaaaaaaaaack. Ok, sort of, not really. 4 years after Doing Business was suspended amidst scandal, this week the World Bank launched its successor, the "Business Ready" (B-READY) report. A recap of how we got here, then what has/hasn't changed. 🧵

Glencore, oil, corruption and debt. Name a more iconic group. www.theafricareport.com/362668/glenc...

two years for stealing $11bn earlier this year a woman was sentenced to 30 years for stealing $20,000 worth of sunglasses wsvn.com/news/local/f...

"It is prohibited to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects which are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material."

Great podcast with my colleague Julia Gruebler on UNCTAD's recent work on Official Development Assistance. While overall aid has gone up, developing regions actually saw ODA shrink by 2 percent in 2022 – affecting more than 70 countries and nearly 3 billion people. pca.st/15twygxs

Explore the World of Debt Dashboard: Key insights across 188 countries. Discover the only dashboard that provides clear insights into global, regional & national debt. Easily understand debt dynamics and their impact on economic & financial stability. Full story: ow.ly/61F750TfBAb

Maldives is tethering on the edge of the default. A quick look at the latest IMF DSA helps to understand how dire is the situation. Country is projected to spend an average of 87% (!) of government revenues on debt service between 2024 and 2028 🤯 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Insane story. A duchess sued a local administration to recover a small piece of land donated by her grandfather. The piece of land in question is the only children playground in the area which is now closed to the public 🤯

At a time when the global population faces many challenges, UNCTAD's mission is more crucial than ever. Find out how UNCTAD is helping developing countries integrate into the global economy and ensuring that prosperity is shared by all in this month's UN Today magazine. untoday.org/project/un-t...