pope leo please do the funny and excommunicate the cheese

wut

the strategy cheese being behind this is another factor in me believing that all of my Twitter enemies joining into one MAGA voltron

the strait of hormuz is in a quantum superposition of open and closed that only collapses when you try to take a tanker through yourself and see if you get shot at

Do not like to see people get themselves into a place where nationwide carpet bombing inspires relief.

If Trump gives an order to use nuclear weapons in Iran, everyone who helps implement that order - right down to the guys driving trucks on the airbase - should end up in front of a firing squad.

same Overton Window-shattering tactic he’s always used: Even if worst doesn’t happen tonight - rhetorically he’s opened up possibility of the unimaginable, making lesser (but still horrible) actions seem moderate by comparison… all increasing likelihood that one day the worst really will happen

Lots of doom on the timeline, from fixating on one sentence in a screed delivered by a man known to be near-completely illiterate - a man who scarcely understands what words mean. Quite likely he thinks "civilization" means "specific government," and he specifically references the 1979 revolution.

I think a lot about how the weight of the presidency ages holders of the office. But it doesn't age Trump because he has no conception of responsibility to others. Seems more likely it is prolonging his life as he gets to inflict pain on others without consequence.

Oh ffs. Someone sold a consulting project, promised the client that I'd do an economic contribution study as part of it - without my ever agreeing.

Oh wow I guess it finally is Infrastructure Week. Fuck

The discourse is really not ready for a job market where breakeven rate is near 0 and the month-to-month variance is more than 100,000.

So many different people and teams all finding pretty much the same conclusion, even looking at different data and relying on different methods.

Reminder ahead of tmrw's jobs report: Kaiser Permanente strike subtracted 31,000 (est.) from Feb's payroll estimates and those workers being added back to payrolls will artificially boost Mar job gains. No new strikes are expected to impact the Mar report: www.bls.gov/ces/publicat...

I don't know what I picked up while traveling for work - only that it's not COVID or flu - but this is the worst I've felt since I had COVID in 2022. Not been a great week.

Four theses on tariff impacts: 1. Evidence clearly shows they've added 0.5-1.0pp to inflation. Evidence consistent with them subtracting from growth. And no evidence they've done anything good for manufacturing or trade deficits (but they have raised revenue).

So, maybe it’s not great that we’re larding this tech into everything to the point where it’s starting to demand active effort NOT to use it?

Eloification, here we come.

The good news, of course, for other social scientists: we all equally suck at replication

This has really bad and dark ramifications.

This was a really good set of points about commodity futures curves. On the terminal: blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

I was thinking, "I've never seen so many people in McNamara, let alone at 6AM on a Monday." Guess this explains it.

This is a normative claim disguised as observation. The everything bagel attempts to be all things and risks being none. The plain bagel commits. Commitment is clarity.

I’ll admit my macroeconomic outlook didn’t include a Leeroy Jenkins bombing campaign against Iran with no plan whatsoever for securing Hormuz. And you know what, that’s on me.

It feels like we’re playing Jenga with the underpinnings of society. There‘s the peaceful transfer of power norm. There’s the norm against antisemitism. There’s the stable global energy market. Idk how long this is sustainable before something breaks for good.

Just saw they quietly changed the update time to 10 AM Monday. Not the restoration time, the update time.

It all comes full circle? Was that old fence actually a critical piece of the DTE infrastructure?

For context on DTE: We get more frequent and more detailed information about power outages and restoration times from Comcast - typically listed as the most-hated company in America - than we get from our utility, DTE. Been that way for most of a decade and to a point we actually like Comcast.

DTE: Your power is restored! No one in our neighborhood has power. DTE: lol why are you asking us we don't know why it's out, uh good luck with pipes freezing We use so little power that a solar system has never made sense financially but we're now leaning towards solar+battery just out of spite.

💀

Still 54F in the house after a day without power, and with a outside high of 42F. Days like today, I'm quite glad I added so much insulation when the roof needed to be rebuilt and the exterior siding replaced.

Nothing like, "it's only 54F indoors and falling" to get the cuddle pile started.

Maybe I was concerned about the wrong structure.

Wind like this has me increasingly thinking the westward side of the house could use renovation, maybe a triangular facing

*opens bsky* *sees somewhat local news on national media* *closes bsky*

Oh look, the predictable thing happened. They didn't forget it what with all the less predictable things about.

“.. a claim that, if true, would constitute an unprecedented breach of security protocols at an agency that serves more than 70 million Americans.” @washingtonpost.com www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Eugene Fama in shambles

Oh Lord, heaven knows, we belong way down below Oh Lord, tell us so, we belong way down below Way down below, way down below Way down below, way down below I've seen better ways, man I know better ways www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHBx...

Go ahead and hate your neighbor Go ahead and cheat a friend Do it in the name of heaven You can justify it in the end There won't be any trumpets blowing Come the judgement day www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTBx... bsky.app/profile/chri...

Elon Musk, arguably the best con man in history, does his “engineering” with smoke and mirrors. And despite Musk's track record, gullible officials still eat it up. Outstanding article by Matt Ribel in The Washingtonian.

1.) Unemployment duration right now is *really* high. Near or above *peak* duration in pre-GFC recessions. 2.) We are spending less money than ever helping connect unemployed workers to jobs. Bad! www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-tinder...

At the gas station near my house, unleaded regular increased 30 cents a gallon from when I filled up at 11 PM yesterday to 3PM today. I don't have the exact price from when my wife filled her car, but seems prices were already up 30 or 40 cents from ~1.5 or 2 weeks ago.

Admittedly, I've not read through this yet but provided the abstract is accurate, this is, at least to me, kind of insane. In my experience, accurate 4-8 quarters out is usually considered quite good.

Our so very cyberpunk present...

This really ought to be terrifying. We literally have people making decisions to drop bombs in the grips of apocalyptic fantasies.