Poll fans! We've been hard at work making aesthetics updates & adding new data downloads to the site. Premium API subscribers can now download daily averages for presidential approval and the House generic ballot, both of which update in real time as we add polls to our database.

Hi, I've been working on a lil' something.

The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data! Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.

The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data! Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.

Chart of the day from the incomparable @erindataviz.bsky.social @axios.com

Meet Your Mayor 2025 is here! Take @thecity.nyc's quiz on issues and leadership to which candidates are your best match. Quite possibly not who you think. projects.thecity.nyc/meet-your-ma...

Good idea. Even in this environment it was shortsighted of ABC to completely shutter 538. www.semafor.com/article/05/1...

America's housing market looks different depending on where you live, so I made a tool that tracks home price and inventory trends at the county level. Data from @rdcnews.bsky.social 🔗 katiemarriner.com/the-state-of...

Some news! Today, I launch Strength In Numbers as an independent, data-driven news website devoted to rigorous and transparent political analysis. On Wednesday we'll have our first poll, with a high-quality, non-partisan sponsor. Please share, and join us: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/building-a...

Polls conducted after Trump's new tariffs are just brutal for him: - Net approval rating hits a new low of -4 - Disapproval over 50% for the first time in his second term - Econ approval at -15 - Tariffs underwater by 30 Will be updating this post with more: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-appr...

Several big 538 projects have made on the long-list for the 2024 Information is Beautiful awards. A big honor for a small group of journalists. Congrats to the team ❤️ www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase?act...

ABC News has now fully taken down the old 538 website, including all interactive projects since 2014. Aside from erasing history this prevents access to publicly released data, including raw polls, averages, model estimates & story dta. Totally unacceptable for a company (allegedly) doing journalism

Just a reminder that all the data FiveThirtyEight collected—polls, election results, and much more—is available for download (for now) on our GitHub page. github.com/fivethirtyei...

@perrybaconjr.bsky.social gets FiveThirtyEight exactly right here. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Along with the rest of the staff, I was laid off from 538 today. I am incredibly proud of the work we did there and honored to have learned so much from such talented journalists.

As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(

It's true. ABC News shuttered 538, and I was laid off today. It was an honor to work with a talented, smart and most importantly, kind, group of journalists; and to build off the groundbreaking work of the those who came before me.

Incredibly sad to report that ABC News is indeed eliminating 538. I count myself incredibly lucky to have worked with such incredibly smart, kind people for 7 years. Thank you all for coming along for the ride.

Not sure what's next for me. I'm going to take some time off but then will be looking for ways to stay in political journalism. In the meantime, please hire my fantastic colleagues, and stay in touch by signing up for my newsletter: baseballot.substack.com/subscribe

The People Carrying Out Musk’s Plans at DOGE www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

📈📉📈📉 Here's how 538 visualized the political roller coaster that was 2024.

Trump could have the most failed Cabinet nominations to start a presidency. abcnews.go.com/538/trumps-c... The record is 3, and Gaetz was the earliest Cabinet withdrawal in modern history. Chart by @katiemarriner.bsky.social:

The @washingtonpost.com, @lhreports.bsky.social and @eluniversalmx.bsky.social collected death records from every Texas county and Mexican state bordering the Rio Grande to examine the effects of tougher enforcement, and whether it has increased drownings: www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/...

A classic 2015 dataviz from the WSJ interactive graphics team by my former colleagues Tynan DeBold and Dov Friedman. This won so many awards. Glad to see it is making the rounds again graphics.wsj.com/infectious-d...

Working toward becoming an expert in Alaska's ranked-choice voting process. Here's where things are trending in the At-Large House seat if all rounds are carried out. abcnews.go.com/538/live-upd...

How To Tell Who's On Track To Win On Election Night

While the House and Presidency are a toss-up, the Senate is a different story.

The House Forecast is here... and it's a close one.

Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump and his policy platform?

Select a state. See how the chances change.

New poll quiz! Can you guess how Americans feel about Harris's Platform?

Kudos to Tia Yang, Cooper Burton, and Mary Radcliffe for the huge data lift; @katiemarriner.bsky.social and Amina Brown for the stunning presentation; and @kaleighrogers.bsky.social, Holly Fuong, and Irena Li for editing! projects.fivethirtyeight.com/types-democr...

Why the GOP wants to tank the border deal, in 1 @katiemarriner.bsky.social chart: The more border crossings there are, the more Americans say immigration is the nation's biggest problem. abcnews.go.com/538/democrat...

Fivey’s back in 538’s GOP delegate benchmark tracker

Wholesale inflation as measured by the producer price index was released by the BLS today. It rose to 1.6% year-over-year for August from 0.8% in July. See how that breaks down for almost 600 products. www.marketwatch.com/story/use-ma...

Childcare prices are rising, and parents are struggling to make decisions on how to best care for their children. I built a tool for MarketWatch that lets you search for the average cost of childcare by county and how that compares to your income.