Today's Lawfare Daily is a Scaling Laws ep, with @utexaslaw.bsky.social, where @alanrozenshtein.com spoke to @samwl.bsky.social, Janet Egan & @petereharrell.bsky.social about the Trump admin’s decision to allow Nvidia and AMD to export AI semiconductors to China for a 15% payment to the U.S. govt.

Read @samwl.bsky.social and Nikita Lalwani on how AI advances could undermine nuclear deterrence—and “encourage mistrust and dangerous actions among nuclear-armed states”:

Appreciated this balanced look at the impact of quote-unquote AI on nuclear deterrence - more of this, please. Does AI present new nuclear risks? Yes. Are there hard limits to AI's capabilities? Also yes. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

"So long as systems of nuclear deterrence remain in place, the economic and military advantages produced by AI will not allow states to fully impose their political preferences on one another. " @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Fascinating read. So many things combined in this article: deterrence theory, nuclear doctrines, AI development. Not cheerful but insightful. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

In @foreignaffairs.com, Nikita Lalwani and I write about the idea that winning the AI race will give one state unchallenged global dominance. To do so, we argue, it would have to undercut nuclear deterrence—no small feat. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

The Trump administration’s AI Action Plan and accompanying executive orders are friendly to companies and hostile to “woke AI.” But these policies’ effects will depend on their implementation, writes @samwl.bsky.social in @justsecurity.org: www.justsecurity.org/117765/asses...

The Trump administration has unveiled its most ambitious AI strategy to date, with the goal of achieving “unquestioned and unchallenged” global dominance in AI. @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpacks the AI Action Plan - what’s new, what’s not, and what’s next. #AIActionPlan

The Trump administration has released its long-awaited #AI Action Plan. Leading experts Josh Geltzer, Jennifer Marron, @briannarosen.bsky.social, and @samwl.bsky.social unpack the plan, its implications, and what lies ahead. www.justsecurity.org/117752/just-...

Beijing has claimed last week’s trade deal with Nvidia as a win for China. Is it actually? Probably, write @samwl.bsky.social‬ and Alasdair Phillips-Robins in @foreignpolicy.com: the U.S. should tighten its AI export controls, not undercut them. Full article: foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/22/n...

In @foreignpolicy.com, Alasdair Phillips-Robins and I wrote about the Trump administration’s mismanagement of export control policy. In its desperation to reach a deal in its trade war with China, the administration has hamstrung its ability to impose new chip restrictions:

Trump's Gulf datacenter plan will put a key node of the world’s AI infrastructure in locations highly vulnerable to drone attack. Yet despite these obvious risks, physical security has barely registered in the public debate. That needs to change. My latest, in @washingtonpost.com: wapo.st/46SQXKe

What exactly do the AI deals that President Trump made on his Gulf trip entail? And what’s next for AI policy in the U.S., the Gulf, and the world? @samwl.bsky.social and Alasdair Phillips-Robins explained for @justsecurity.org:

Recent major U.S. chip export deals with the #Gulf mark the emergence of a new powerhouse in the #AI race. Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social (@carnegieendowment.org) unpack what comes next. www.justsecurity.org/113944/what-...

AI deals were a major focus of President Trump’s trip to the Middle East last week. But what should we make of these deals? Do they open the U.S. up to economic opportunities, or security risks? Alasdair Phillips-Robins and @samwl.bsky.social on how to tell: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Great @nytimes.com reporting from @anaswanson.bsky.social, ft some closing comments from me on the tensions between an America First AI policy and the decision to offshore the world's most powerful AI facilities to the UAE:

Shared some more skeptical reactions to Trump's Gulf AI deals with @washingtonpost.com: www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

Shared a couple of thoughts with @anaswanson.bsky.social for the @nytimes.com on the risks of letting the Gulf amass giant concentrations of cutting-edge AI chips: www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/b...

Some thoughts from me in the @washingtonpost.com on what's shaping up to be a bad AI deal with the Gulf: washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

1/ The Trump admin may be about to greenlight the export of advanced AI chips to the Gulf. If it does so, it will place the most important technology of the 21st C at the whims of autocrats with expanding ties to China and interests very far from those of the US.

My conversation with @samwl.bsky.social moderated by @rmomtaz.bsky.social on how AI is re- shaping the world order. @carnegieeurope.bsky.social @carnegieendowment.org. Part of the europe-inside-out podcast. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/how...

Some thoughts on DOGE/the Trump administration's destruction of USIP, the Wilson Center, and home-grown social science/area studies expertise about the rest of the world: paulstaniland.com/2025/04/16/u...

In the wake of DeepSeek's market-jolting release, @carnegieendowment.org's Matt Sheehan and I explain why export controls almost certainly still matter, how the Chinese govt is likely to respond, and what this means for the U.S.-China AI race more broadly carnegieendowment.org/posts/2025/0...

Some more thoughts on the AI diffusion framework in @justsecurity.org. If the Trump admin keeps it—big if!—it gives them a ready-made new bargaining chip as leverage in international negotiations: www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...

How widely should the US share its #AI technologies? Amid growing competition with #China, the Trump admin will have to grapple with this question as it reviews the Biden-era diffusion rule, writes @samwl.bsky.social. www.justsecurity.org/106545/the-f...

Yesterday, the Biden admin released one of its most ambitious acts of technological policymaking: a major new rule that reshapes how AI technology can be exported globally. @carnegieendowment.org carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Earlier today, the Biden admin released one of its most ambitious acts of technological policymaking: a major new rule that reshapes how AI technology can be exported globally.

How widely should the US share its AI technology? In a new @carnegieendow.bsky.social paper, I map the debate on what may soon become a core question for US foreign policy. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

How widely should the US share its AI technology? In a new @carnegieendow.bsky.social paper, I map the debate on what may soon become a core question for US foreign policy. carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

In @foreignaffairs.bsky.social, I wrote about the increasingly close relationships between US AI companies and the Gulf states—and the difficult questions they raise for US policymakers: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

“The United States should not impose a blanket ban on all sales of advanced AI chips to the Gulf,” writes @samwl.bsky.social. “At times, U.S. policymakers will have to become comfortable operating in regions and sectors in which U.S. and Chinese influence overlap.”

In @foreignaffairs.bsky.social, I wrote about the increasingly close relationships between US AI companies and the Gulf states—and the difficult questions they raise for US policymakers: www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

For @foreignpolicy.com, I reviewed Chris Kirchhoff and Raj Shah’s new account of how commercial innovation is shaping warfare and how U.S. bureaucracies have struggled—and, more rarely, succeeded—in their efforts to keep up: foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/s...

My latest, for Foreign Affairs, with Michael Liebreich and @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social, on why US fears about Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are misplaced. These attacks force Russia to export more oil, not less: www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-...

Thrilled to be guest-posting for @mattyglesias.bsky.social today with Bryan Schonfeld on how researchers measure antisemitism—and what we actually know about its prevalence: www.slowboring.com/p/d4a8630d-2...

Thrilled to be guest-posting for @mattyglesias.bsky.social today with Bryan Schonfeld on how researchers measure antisemitism—and what we actually know about its prevalence: www.slowboring.com/p/d4a8630d-2...

Some things I read and liked recently: titletk.substack.com/p/spring-of-...

A round-up of a few great pieces from this fall: titletk.substack.com/p/things-ive...

A good tool to bridge people you follow on Twitter over to Bluesky but took me a minute to figure out: — install plugin in Chrome — go to *your Twitter profile page* and click on list of people you follow — activate plugin Very short video was helpful: github.com/kawamataryo/...