New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...

Check out Interactive Economics, an open access project co-directed by CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social & devoted to learning economics & the dynamics of interactions among people, resources & the environment. Four modules released & more coming soon Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social has a terrific Substack called Imperfect Information In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️

Topical in a couple of different ways, but also points out a major failure point of our collective information processing systems: we infer from financial metrics much more than what their generative process warrants. Much like omens in other cultures... 1/

New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Instead of regurgitating the bromide that LLMs are just "autocomplete on steroids" (even by people who know better), maybe we can actually engage in some public education. The problem with genAI is better expressed through a classic computer science concept, known as SYMBOL GROUNDING. 🧵

New post on a presidential memorandum open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Call for Papers: 20th Annual Conference on Economic Growth and Development www.isid.ac.in/~acegd/acegd... It's a great conference, I'm on the program committee and hoping to attend this year

New post on the Columbia deal: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the work of Jens Ludwig on gun violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

I made a quick Russian interference explainer. When CIA director Ratcliffe started down this road, I wrote 3000 words about the Senate reports, the data sets from big tech, etc. Now Tulsi’s doing her thing…so here’s a quick video about her “Obama treason” voting machine claims vs reality. 🤷🏻‍♀️

New post on a second act for PredictIt: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New deal between PredictIt and the CFTC drops restrictions on total number of traders and raises cap to $3.5K per trader in any given market (up from $850); it will be interesting to see implications for forecasting accuracy: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New post on professional distancing in academia (based recent work by Kris Gulati and Lorenzo Palladini): open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Hear me out: this is actually potentially interesting if they can find a way to avoid floods of spam. It could address some big issues w/ Community Notes — language neutrality issues preventing “clearing,” bandwidth to write notes, ideologue topic issues, etc www.theverge.com/news/696210/...

Just posted a new paper (with Chiara Chanoi, José Luis Montiel Olea and Dan O'Flaherty) that looks at use of lethal force by police officers in the 1930s, based on data collected as background material for Myrdal's American Dilemma papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Our preprint “How Malicious AI Swarms Can Threaten Democracy” is now online. We show how coordinated multi-agent LLM swarms can infiltrate communities, craft synthetic grassroots “consensus,” and erode institutional trust—and what we can do now to stop it. osf.io/preprints/os...

New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the possibility of a long, hot summer open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Just published the introductory essay to an issue (OA! 😀) of @bppjournal.bsky.social I've been co-editing in honor of Mario Rizzo; with articles by Adam Oliver, Gerd Gigerenzer, Shaun Hargreaves Heap, George Loewenstein, Nick Chater, and Cass Sunstein, among others www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/betting-on...

“the only country that has both the resources and the capacity to make credible commitments regarding academic freedom is Norway.” @rajivsethi.bsky.social rajivsethi.substack.com/p/body-blows...

New post on brain drains and gains: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

I've had plenty of disagreements with Tom Palley on this and other issues but find this kind of social ostracism really distasteful: thomaspalley.com?p=2545

Even if the courts rule against the DHS on this, all political appointees at foreign consulates know that they will be fired if they approve F-1 visas for applicants holding Harvard acceptance letters 🧵 www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/u...

New post on a commencement speech open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Extremely dramatic Romanian election coming to a close with the centrist (an impressive mathematician) projected to win. Some of the American election-denier cranks on X are darkly hinting this is some kind of shenanigans, of course.

After this year's Conclave, traders reacted aggressively on the quick announcement, but it turns out there weren't any insiders this time. @rajivsethi.bsky.social

inside information apparently had not leaked, but it *might* have leaked. traders appear to have (mistakenly!) magnified early price moves after the smoke turned white, on that theory. as always, excellent from @rajivsethi.bsky.social.

Prediction markets and the papal conclave: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

If we knew which foreign offers these international admits were (also) accepting it would tell us where future global leadership in higher education might lie: www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Did not expect this

If Norway is going to use its sovereign wealth fund to challenge American dominance of higher education, this would be the time, and these would be the students to try and attract to begin with: www.thecrimson.com/article/2025...

Really festive atmosphere at the north end of Central Park today, stop by if in the area www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/a...

"Public confidence in higher education has declined precipitously across partisan lines, and this has to be recognized and addressed. And rebuilding trust will require, at a minimum, some acknowledgement of failures to vigorously protect free expression in the past."

New post with a look at free speech on campus over the past two decades open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

From @theonion.com in 2005, twenty years ahead of the curve theonion.com/wrongly-impr...

Intriguing proposal, but tough to implement at large scale.

I think every person with a job in academia should read this!

This post seems to have struck a chord in some circles, more views in the first couple of days than anything else I've written: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Everyone needs to stop treating pretextual justifications for the attack on higher education seriously.

New post on the (possible) future of American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Engineered Volatility: If our financial markets come to be seen increasingly as a vehicle for the well-connected to profit from privileged access to information, investors will look elsewhere. (@rajivsethi.bsky.social) rajivsethi.substack.com/p/engineered...

Would love to know who had advance notice of the pause

This post from Renée DiResta @noupside.bsky.social is worth reading if you want to understand why trying to correct tendentious and inaccurate claims online is a full-time job...and still doesn't really work. It's the Red Queen's race, running to stand still. open.substack.com/pub/reneedir...

"the fact that such large market movements are currently being driven by (actual and rumored) policy choices creates immense opportunities for profit" via insider trading

"I would strongly prefer that the policy and methodology be scrapped entirely. But barring that, the administration should divide its results by four." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/o...