Trust-building in prediction markets Polymarket's main prediction market seeks re-entry into the U.S. Approval must be conditioned on some form of identity verification, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in @financialtimes.com . Rajiv outlines three approaches www.ft.com/content/c461...

“A more sophisticated trader would have been harder to catch, given the absence of identity verification on Polymarket,” says CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , consulted in this @wsj.com piece on recent prediction market controversies www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Really insightful, original, and well-written piece on prediction markets... I've been speaking with a lot of journalists recently about these issues and the conversation with @miasato.bsky.social was among the most engaging:

Information bleeds across venues, with insider trading on one exchange (Polymarket, where trader identities are not known even to the platform) leading to insider-like trading elsewhere, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social elucidates in his latest - and always insightful - Substack post

An interesting possibility I had not considered, re: the apparent insider trading around the Iran war and other Trump admin actions.

New post on information contagion across venues: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

I'm grateful to the @umich.edu PPE program for their invitation to deliver the 2026 PPE lecture. I spoke about The Interpretation of Signals, based on a book I'm working on while in residence at @casbsstanford.bsky.social Link to video: youtu.be/Mb0mOMsIkdU?...

On prediction markets, do follow @rajivsethi.bsky.social , see this , substack.com/@rajivsethi/...

On Polymarket, transactions are visible but identities are not. This invites not only insider trading but also, as recent events suggest, potential betting directly on & profiting from geopolitical violence, as CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains ➡️ rajivsethi.substack.com/p/trading-on...

New post: Trading on Violence open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

I'll be giving the annual PPE lecture at @umich.edu next week in case you're in the area and would like to attend, details here: share.google/NOT06HLeEuUo...

There often are hidden/unclear meanings conveyed by myriad forms of expression. In an info-rich environment, how to interpret that info in a world of diverse perspectives? @rajivsethi.bsky.social is delving into these thorny issues in a book, parts of which he discussed in his CASBS fellows seminar

Informative @pbsnews.org segment on prediction markets youtu.be/F80iYxdYxnw?...

On AI and the tariff case open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social emitted exceedingly strong expert vibe (CASBS branding, no doubt) in his Thursday appearance on the PBS Newshour @pbsnews.org discussing prediction markets - a hot topic now but something Rajiv has studied for two decades WATCH: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

Joined @pbsnews.org with Paul Solman @justinwolfers.bsky.social and Yesha Yadav to discuss prediction markets: www.youtube.com/live/2iBPeOZ...

Last week we hosted a terrific, wide-ranging conversation between 2005-06 CASBS fellow @jacksonmatthewo.bsky.social & current fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social for our podcast, Human Centered. We'll release the episode in the spring. Until then, follow Human Centered on your favorite podcast app 🎙️🎧

A very educational reminder from @rajivsethi.bsky.social that (and why, and how) markets --including prediction markets-- are rarely purely about information integration, and you read them as such at your own peril.

The price in a market referencing a miraculous or impossible event cannot possibly influence the objective probability of the event. But that's not the case for markets referencing, for example, elections, writes CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social in this crisp Substack post

New post on markets that reference other markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Nice to see CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social represented in this list of notable research

Check out the latest from the SSRN #blog which includes a selection of the latest research on #cryptocurreny submitted to SSRN in 2025. Read more: spkl.io/63324ASWYe#blog#cryptocurreny#AcademicChatter #crypto

PPE Lecture Series: Rajiv Sethi (Columbia) | U-M LSA Philosophy, Politics and Economics share.google/MonOg0POYBSd...

Sometimes history is not a good guide to the future. CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social explains why predictive markets may outperform polls & poll-based statistical models. Watch, then go to Rajiv's Substack essay on this: rajivsethi.substack.com/p/guessing-g... www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YVc...

New post on prediction markets, spoofing, and forecasting accuracy: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Short but substantive conversation with Smerconish today: youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...

Wanna Bet? How Prediction Markets, Political Independents, and Weight-Loss Drugs Are Reshaping America Watch my full segment on YouTube & Subscribe: https://youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM

Short but substantive conversation with @smerconish.bsky.social on prediction markets: youtu.be/zQfdwRtQ2UM?...

Clip from a longer conversation with Smerconish a couple of days ago: www.facebook.com/reel/1371138...

New post on (possible) insider trading on Polymarket open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on strategic diversity, meritocratic selection, asset price bubbles, and on online game: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on Salman Rushdie: Encountering the Buddha open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the detection of wash trading: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social

Direct link to paper here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Have been waiting for this paper to come out ever since Hongyao told me about it -- more academics should be taking advantage of such open data to answer important questions

Coverage of the paper by @ellebeyoud.bsky.social of Bloomberg here (gift link): www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Just posted a paper on the detection of wash trading with an application to Polymarket (joint with Allen Sirolly, Hongyao Ma, Yash Kanoria): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

New post on prediction markets and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

"What appeals to me most abt American traditions is the creedal nature of national identity, the Declaration’s insistence on universal equality…the rights enumerated in our Constitution…I consider innovation…growth…sustained material prosperity…downstream of free expression." @rajivsethi.bsky.social

New post on the compact open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

CASBS's Creating a New Moral Political Economy program (2020-23) offers an open access repository allowing students & educators to expand their thinking about moral political economy issues & questions. Scholars: add your syllabus & other digital resources to the repository. 👉 mpe.stanford.edu

New post on gun supply open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Latest issue of @vitalcitynyc.bsky.social is on gun supply, lots of interesting contributions, here is mine (with Dan O'Flaherty) www.vitalcitynyc.org/articles/whe...

Check out Interactive Economics, an open access project co-directed by CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social & devoted to learning economics & the dynamics of interactions among people, resources & the environment. Four modules released & more coming soon Play with it 👉 www.interactiveeconomics.org

CASBS fellow @rajivsethi.bsky.social has a terrific Substack called Imperfect Information In this post, Rajiv describes his CASBS year project on how messages & signals we send & receive become adopted or contested, & their sometimes unintended consequences Check it out & read more Rajiv posts ⬇️

Topical in a couple of different ways, but also points out a major failure point of our collective information processing systems: we infer from financial metrics much more than what their generative process warrants. Much like omens in other cultures... 1/

New post on celebrity unions, papal conclaves, and financial markets open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

New post on the coming academic year and an ongoing project open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...