The "rally-around-the-flag" effect is not some law of physics that works automatically. It largely seems to happen because 1) the opposition party stops criticizing the president or the military operation, 2) partially as a consequence, the mass media is flooded with pro-government messages. /1

Most of my life watching T2 was on the DVD on a CRT. But thanks to the power of blu ray I can truly appreciate how many times the Pepsi logo actually shows up.

If you are still in line for me to smash the like button on your Alyssa Liu meme, STAY IN LINE

The real story is that foreign govts try to "interfere" all the time. In 2020 and 2024 we had mechanisms to catch them, call them out, & mitigate damage. Now, those mechanims are gone & the Trump admin would prefer to exploit "foreign interference" to justify a federal take-over of elections.

For my newsletter this week, I wrote about why corrupt news betting sites like Kalshi and Polymarket should be illegal: www.burnsnotice.com/the-iran-war...

A question this double-barreled seems specifically designed to get picked up by Third Way types. Equivalent to asking "Would you rather have policy A, or policy B that also does unpopular policy C that nobody is arguing for in the debate between A and B?" x.com/daveweigel/s...

Brain: don’t say shit to the Raytheon moms don’t say shit to the Raytheon moms Raytheon mom: how was your weekend John Me: it was great how about yours Them: agh crazy busy Me: so I heard! Brain: COME ON

Honestly, the answer to this is "the same way most poll respondents answer most policy questions "

Here's @adambonica.bsky.social on the hilarious ways the NY Times determines who is "moderate" and who is "progressive" data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-new-yo...

Even if you don’t care at all about sports or sports betting, I’m imploring you to understand that our entire culture is now one giant, mostly unregulated sportsbook. Needless to say, that’s not a good thing pretty-good.ghost.io/sports-betti...

We've got previews of *forty* different major elections taking place tomorrow. This is a post you definitely won't want to miss out on.

The 2003 Iraq war never polled this bad, even when you asked people retrospectively about it.

I don’t think you can make this shit stick anymore.

Actually surprised that Mills's oppo people took this long to dig it up and it kind of suggests that the DNC are not spending enough resources following extremists to see what they're up to

Prediction markets: a bunch of new users bet big on war with Iran. This is not suspicious at all; we follow the law. Also prediction markets: we are not paying out on regime change in Iran, you can't have a prediction market based on death. This is not suspicious at all; we follow the law.

world-altering decisions are being made by a cabal of gambling addicts hell bent on self enrichment no matter the cost to humanity, we should look into that.

Komrade Kristol is firmly on team “these guys suck ass and if anyone is going to be doing regime change wars it’s gonna be *me*”

This isn’t hard: Saddam Hussein was world historically brutal and sadistic and awful. Ranks in the upper tiers of the 20th century. Surpasses the brutality of Iranian leadership. We don’t need to throat clear before saying why it’s atrocious and illegal what is being done by trump, vance et al

You have to draw a line between “politics stops at the water’s edge” and “these people are so incompetent they’d fuck up an ice cream sundae”

First, Iran is not an imminent threat to the United States or Israel. The regime is brutal and repressive, but not suicidal. History and intelligence bear this out. There is no reason to do this now.

Thanks, Burial Beer for finding the beer name for this moment.

look i'm sorry you are 270 miles from great Ethiopian the triangle can't have everything.

Of the "Axis of Evil", only the regime that has not been attacked by the United States is the one that actually acquired nuclear capacity. Given that incentive structure, I have to think that this attack on Iran will motivate, not deter, future proliferation efforts by hostile regimes

someone transported here from 1995 with a layman's understanding of the Republican Party - "they like low taxes for the rich and aggressive use of the military" - would be more correct in their assessment of the party than many ostensibly savvy pundits working right now

There are no new laws, or more court orders, that can solve the problem of a president & an administration that systematically & completely ignores the law, court orders, & the Constitution.

I don't think Crockett wins a general. But I think she is running the correct campaign. Talarico is running the kind of campaign you might run in six years.

They are just going to keep doing stupid horrific unpopular shit until Congress stops them.

There will be a lot of talk that is this cause/effect from Epstein. It's not. But they do know they're in deep political trouble and the thought of "Get behind us or else" is part of it. This could get bad enough that it becomes a factor, but you are never going to see 2002-like unity either.

This is not the flex you think it is but I have a Quaker tattoo not a Nazi tattoo

this is good. underrated problem with popularism: it is--openly and explicitly--a pathetic, wimpy school of thought www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...

when i “whine” about dems being losers, its not because i think they’ve lost too many elections, its because i think they’ve squandered that power when they’ve won. is there a better case-in-point than the biden admin fumbling the response to a fucking coup?

Also, this war brought to you by the same Pentagon that shot down a US drone with a laser and closed airspace near El Paso, again. You really want these guys starting wars and/or doing regime changes in Venezuela, Iran, and maybe Cuba in just the first quarter of 2026?

again you would not see this kind of talk even six months ago.

I have never seen him challenged this directly and this extensively. Bravo to the @whyshoulditrustyou.bsky.social team for their efforts to make this a thoughtful, evidence-based conversation. I am disappointed with the NIH Director/Acting CDC Director's responses.

It is was so discouraging to hear the NIH Director respond with sneering condescension, dismissing a young researcher's work as "bad science." He then had the audacity at the end of the podcast to use Dr. Green as an example of someone whose "angst" he is trying address, providing no plan to do so.

Strongly believe they would not get this note if filming today.

Rodney Scott has the chance to do the funniest thing

I’m sorry I don’t think the strip club capital of the world has any business deciding who’s underdressed

"This isn't about sides of a die. it's how we create an affordable future for every New Yorker."

Per @umichvoter.bsky.social: Starr County, which is 95% Latino and voted for a Republican for the first time in a century in 2024, is now posting over 10,000 voters in the Democratic primary. For context: In the 2020 presidential primary, it had only 7,612 voters altogether

Vance 2028: It Was Like That When We Got Here!

Orban and Putin were also much much more popular when they presided over media consolidation in their respective countries

Never forget what we can be

Our friend @politicalwire.com - who briefs on aspects of politics unknown to most people - recently spent two days on a ventilator. He nevertheless tuned into the speech last night out of habit and professional obligation. He quit after 45 minutes, calling it "terribly boring."

The last thing these yahoos need is access to more alcohol and firearms

Interested in the accuracy of primary polls? In this paper (URL in the replies), 3 co-authors & I detail the polling failures in the 2023 Philadelphia Democratic mayoral primary, where virtually none of the polls showed Mayor Parker winning. (Spoiler alert: I said "Mayor.")

It is student press freedom day, so a reminder to my colleagues: when student journalists asks for quote, give them something. studentpressfreedom.org

This resonates sooooo much.