Or, as one of the comments puts it, farce majeure.

Oh man, the hit at Ras Laffan has taken almost 20% of output (i.e. roughly 3% of global LNG volumes) offline for *3-5 years*.

🆕 📊 Updated data: Our @bruegel.org tracking suggest that the EU as of Q1 2026 has 260 GWh battery cell manufacturing capacity, equivalent to two-thirds of demand. A further 320 GWh are under construction - mostly involving Chinese companies.

In some of Europe's sunniest countries 1 MWh of average solar generation is still worth more than 60 € (HR, BG, RO, HU, GR) and in IT it is worth more than 90€/MWh. (In 2026 it will likely be more.) This compares to maybe 40-50 €/MWh of average cost of utility solar www.bruegel.org/dataset/eu-r...

This strikes me as the right approach to the Industrial Accelerator Act - it is needed (given less-than-fair competition), needs calibration (to not shoot ourselves in the foot w/partners), but is not enough (as structural issues remain). www.bruegel.org/podcast/infl...

Mind-boggling figures on Chinese goods exports for the first two months of this year. Up 21.8% on the previous year. The reasons for this appear to be the forthcoming deadline for export tax rebates on solar panels and batteries. China's industrial policy in one chart!

"Most of the time working groups produce better results than carrier groups. Confabbing, summit-holding and deliberating result in decisions that—when they are eventually taken—have some sort of logic and general buy-in."

"Imagine if...large-scale programme had been funded to produce batteries at scale and install them in...European households" @martinsandbu.ft.com Fun fact, we🇧🇬 decided to use RRF🇪🇺 to support batteries (grid-scale). Today, we have 2 of largest BESS in EU and soon up to 10,000 GWh- all in <4 years.

NEW ANALYSIS: UK emissions fell 2.4% in 2025 as coal fell to a 400-year low. Incredibly, we used less coal last year than than in 1600, when Queen Elizabeth I was on the throne and Shakespeare was writing Hamlet. All the details in our article: www.carbonbrief.org/...

After months of wrangling and an epic list of delays, the Commission has finally released its Industrial Accelerator Act. This could turn into one of the EU’s most consequential industrial policy files in years - and the proposal is honestly not a bad place to start. Some quick thoughts:

Until morale improves.

Actually, we have an example - EU always housed large RU reserves, and leveraged this in 2022 with quite some punch, for geopolitical reasons. Yet, this was very much ad hoc and improvised - needs to be part of a strategy, or at least a shared understanding of the statecraft (EUcraft?) toolbox.

"Europe is better armed for geopolitical conflict than its leaders might think". @martinsandbu.ft.com makes two key points: 1) defense, or resilience, today is not enough; 2) for offence, you need political will to leverage (latent) power. Resilience and response. www.ft.com/content/b92f...

Now imagine if only there was also an EU safe asset, let's say a bond that is not from a temporary instrument. And imagine this one was added to several tracking indices... Investors pour record sums into European stocks - www.ft.com/content/8017...

One story from Just Transition Fund - we wanted to support cleantech manufacturing in coal transition regions in BG, but this required a long process of justifying why provide capex on something else than SMEs. By the time we got there, some investors had moved on. Plenty you can do with EU funds.

Indeed, "the protection of a big currency bloc" was what (in part) helped to get the euro over the line also in Bulgaria. Add to that the limits of monetary policy in small open economy and you can start building a case - even in Sweden.

To put it another way: is lessening incentives for cross-dossier bargaining in order to facilitate limited progress on some dossiers the best strategy across the board where QMV is the norm? Or is it something to be kept for very specific cases to move behind unanimity? @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social

Speaking at an event in Sofia, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane congratulates Bulgaria on joining the euro area, adding that Bulgaria now has a seat at the table and is helping to shape ECB policymaking. Read his speech www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/da...

Interesting, and slightly provocative, argument by @carloscuerpo.bsky.social . Indeed, the safe asset, EU bonds, already exists - it is just that the stock is not large and that, even worse, is mostly temporary. Curious to see how linking it with the next MFF plays out.

Quite the chart

“Coalitions of the willing” are back in vogue. Internationally, that makes sense. But in the EU context, I don’t buy the hype. In fact, it leads to the wrong conclusions and risks weakening the one institutional framework that actually gives Europe collective power in a world without rules. Thread:

Another data point for the article below - Bulgaria's normally moribund stock exchange has taken off to "World's Best Performance", at least for a short while.

Some (macro)economic thoughts as euro area welcomes a new member at midnight. Bulgaria shows that you can cover convergence criteria and also make people better off, despite challenges. The only way European integration can proceed in a sustainable manner is when it actually delivers for Europeans.

If it’s December 31st, that means it’s time for the Albies! danieldrezner.substack.com/p/the-best-w...

Eurobonds, as part of a diversified funding strategy, are here to stay - it is not "just" #NextGenerationEU

D-Day for Europe to shore up Ukraine funding. As EU leaders huddle in Brussels, Stephen Paduano and I analyse the reparations loan in a new piece. This is not only a "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) moment—but the financial and legal risks are also manageable. 1/ www.cer.eu/insights/ukr...

A great primer by @olena-havrylchyk.bsky.social on securities depositories including Euroclear, recommended reading for whoever want to understand the issues underlying the Immobilized Russian Reserves saga www.ifri.org/en/studies/c...

"The EU has the money and mechanisms to make the reparations loan happen". Indeed. Excellent oped identifying the limits of risks & how layered guarantees via EIB & ESM can help. Financials are clear. Politics need to urgently follow. @blavatnikschool.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/7e70...

China's trade surplus appears on track to top US$1trn this year • China’s exports to the US have were down by 29% year on year in November amid tariffs and tensions • However, Chinese shipments to other regions - notably south-east Asia - keep growing rapidly www.ft.com/content/b9bf...

You know, maybe once in a while you can actually see a bubble in real time. #ThisTimeIsDifferent

The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.

Breaking news: The 2025 Nobel Prize for Economics has been awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt for their work explaining how innovation can drive economic growth. on.ft.com/3WEvVZq

"Given that national governments form the backbone of the eu, “blaming Brussels” is akin to a ventriloquist haranguing his own puppet for being foul-mouthed" “Brussels” is the phantom menace Europe loves to blame www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

It's not just the stock market as well. On the economy at least, it is a two-speed Europe, just not in the way that it's advocates expected. The drivers have switched. Europe’s great stockmarket inversion www.economist.com/finance-and-... From The Economist

Bubbles are normal when new technologies emerge. We analysed historical crashes to see how severe the consequences could be, and for whom

The bond doom-mongers have got at least one thing right on.ft.com/3V0smwb | opinion

Some people go to Paris to visit the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower or Jim Morrison’s grave. I’m visiting the birthplace of the eurodollar market. 🤩

One of the blindspots of the Draghi report was the lack of acknowledgement that it is CEE which is the EU growth engine since COVID. Competitiveness and growth challenges in EU as a whole are different that the ones in DE or FR.

Now, officially, Bulgaria will join the euro on 1/1/2026. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/pre...

Today #EU finance ministers will officially welcome Bulgaria as the 21st member of the euro area 💶 from 1/1/2026. This has been a long journey since 2007, with key progress in the past 5 years. How did Bulgaria make it? Here are three key points about 🇧🇬 economy and society and some myth busting.

Economic development moves jobs from agriculture to manufacturing, and then on to services • Drop in share of manufacturing jobs mostly illustrates productivity growth through automation • In real terms US manufacturing output is more than twice higher than it was in early 1980s

Since Politico asked, I explained (see link). TLDR- no, 🇧🇬 did not game its data. Effect was 1/12th of what is claimed and does not change fulfilment of criterion. Let's make sure this does not fuel disinfo. @izakaminska.bsky.social @atanaspekanov.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/europebu...

Who were the 10 largest military spenders in 2024? 1) United States 🇺🇸 2) China 🇨🇳 3) Russia 🇷🇺 4) Germany 🇩🇪 5) India 🇮🇳 6) United Kingdom 🇬🇧 7) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 8) Ukraine 🇺🇦 9) France 🇫🇷 10) Japan 🇯🇵 New SIPRI data on #MilitarySpending out now ➡️ bit.ly/3GH5GNe

Amazing to have an article so focused on exchange pegs without *the* trilemma :) That said, interesting fact - 🇧🇬 has one of the longest fixed pegs in modern monetary history, from 1997 to today. It served the country well & 🇧🇬 is on track to adopt the euro in 2026. www.economist.com/finance-and-...

It is never a good financial sign when Kindleberger and central bank swap lines are in the FT. For now, a "what if" scenario. Avoiding Kindleberger’s Trap - on.ft.com/421m2Zw via @FT

This is the analysis I've been waiting for, @SimonEvenett & Fernando Martin apply the US's "reciprocal tariff formula" to services trade. If others looked at services the way the US is looking at goods they'd be justified in imposing some big tariffs! globaltradealert.org/reports/ZEIT...

One of the better podcasts on the BIG TRADE THING, focused on the impact in the US. Esp. good with @douglasirwin.bsky.social on historical analogies and contemporary political economy. open.spotify.com/episode/50as...

Interesting, but incomplete picture, esp. on ammunition. Eg. In 2024 🇧🇬 Arsenal had turnover of EUR 0.5 bn, and 🇧🇬 exports were EUR 2.2 bn. And that's before 🇵🇱, and let alone 🇺🇦 are factored in. It is not just about 🇫🇷 or 🇩🇪. Europe’s armsmakers have ramped up capacity www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America www.economist.com/briefing/202... From The Economist

I wrote a new piece for foreign policy. The US's postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over – and may even turn adversarial. But Europe has an overlooked trump card. When it comes to manufacturing Europe blows the US out of the water. Thread. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/e...