Our paper "Insuring Peace: Index-Based Livestock Insurance, Droughts, and Conflict" (w @paulschaudt.bsky.social ) is now out in the QJE! We show that Kenya's IBLI program strongly reduces drought-induced conflict between pastoralists and farmers. doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Key mechanisms: insurance reduces herd sizes, smooths income, and stabilizes asset prices — lowering migratory pressure and conflict over scarce resources. A scalable complement to institutional reforms.

Today Matteo Grigoletto (@wyssacademy.bsky.social) presented “Virality: what makes narratives go viral, and does it matter?". With @kaigehring.bsky.social (Wyss), using climate policy tweets, they show that narratives—featuring heroes, villains, and victims—spread far more than neutral messages.

#QJE May 2026, #7, “Insuring peace: Index-based livestock insurance, droughts, and conflict,” by Gehring (@kaigehring.bsky.social) and Schaudt (@paulschaudt.bskz.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Our paper "Insuring Peace: Index-Based Livestock Insurance, Droughts, and Conflict" (w @paulschaudt.bsky.social ) is now out in the QJE! We show that Kenya's IBLI program strongly reduces drought-induced conflict between pastoralists and farmers. doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

👩‍⚖️🇬🇧 / 👨‍⚖️🇺🇸 :

Very happy to have this out after very intense 3 years work with my coauthor @paulschaudt.bsky.social . Turns out it took me "only" me roughly 15 years in academia to finally join the club and publish in a Top 5 journal. Lot of randomness in the process, but still happy after all the hard work :)

Recently accepted by #QJE: “Insuring peace: Index-based livestock insurance, droughts, and conflict,” by Gehring (@kaigehring.bsky.social) and Schaudt (@paulschaudt.bskz.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

Mein Beitrag „Bösewichte gehen viral“ ist draussen. Warum politische Narrative sich besonders stark verbreiten und was das für Erwartungen und Entscheidungen bedeutet. PNG mit den Seiten im Anhang. #Narrative #Wirtschaftspolitik Ganze Ausgabe mit vielen weiteren Beiträgen: www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-202...

Very happy to have this out after very intense 3 years work with my coauthor @paulschaudt.bsky.social . Turns out it took me "only" me roughly 15 years in academia to finally join the club and publish in a Top 5 journal. Lot of randomness in the process, but still happy after all the hard work :)

Mein Beitrag „Bösewichte gehen viral“ ist draussen. Warum politische Narrative sich besonders stark verbreiten und was das für Erwartungen und Entscheidungen bedeutet. PNG mit den Seiten im Anhang. #Narrative #Wirtschaftspolitik Ganze Ausgabe mit vielen weiteren Beiträgen: www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-202...

My colleague Kyle made the most amazing workaround to making in class quizzes 1. write quiz in typst with correct answers in the outline 2. typst compiles to a pdf with bubbles and QR Code that has hashed answer key 3. students take quiz using bubbles 4. Scan pdfs of quiz ...cont

Alle kommen und gehen. Delegationen, Diplomaten, hochrangige Gäste. Sie betrachten die Ruinen des Heizkraftwerks, nicken, geben Erklärungen ab. 40 Diplomaten, der NATO-Generalsekretär. Fotos, Kameras, Mitgefühl. /2

President Zelensky said SBU operations, including actions by the Alpha unit, are ongoing and new missions are being planned that are changing the course of the war. He also highlighted the role of sanctions. #Ukraine

❗️All 27 EU member states have now agreed to move forward with listing Iran’s IRGC as a terrorist organization, according WSJ journalist Laurence Norman. AFP reported that France has reversed its position and will support the designation, clearing the final obstacle to unanimity. #Iran

After reaching the semifinals of the Australian Open,Ukrainian tennis player Elina Svitolina spoke about the importance of the strong support she has received from Ukrainians Svitolina said that it's a great feeling for her to bring "little light"to Ukrainians,who endure the harshest winter of war

🚨 Big news: France confirms it will support the designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. Since France was the key holdout, unanimity is closer than ever before. Will it happen tomorrow?

Syrian President al-Sharaa has once again arrived in Moscow for talks with Putin. This is al-Sharaa's second official visit to Moscow since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime at the end of 2024. The first meeting between the Syrian president and Putin took place on October 15, 2025.

💥😎 "We are destroying three enemy battalions every day today. This is not enough, we need to destroy many times more of the enemy," — Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces Robert "Magyar" Brody at the "Army of Drones 2025" event.

"She was crying and screaming, 'Mom!'" Radio Liberty war correspondent Marian Kushnir rescued a 4-yr-old girl from a burning residential building hit by a Russian drone in Bilohorodka, Kyiv region The girl’s mom was killed.

TikTok has been under new leadership for like a day and I made a slideshow with posts from the ICE rally today and it immediately got out under review and is not being published. Incredible.

A reminder that one of the new owners of TikTok is Larry Ellison who also now owns CBS News…

Odds of a mining bonanza in Greenland are abysmally low • Getting mine running in Arctic can cost 2-3 times as much as equivalent project at lower latitudes • Island’s two big rare-earth projects have been plagued by difficulties and have yet to start operations www.economist.com/briefing/202...

Serbia’s president Vučić says Ukraine joining the EU from January 1, 2027 is part of a peace plan to end the war. He said the plan would bind not only Ukraine and Russia but much of the international community, and that EU rules would be changed despite opposition from several member states #Ukraine

Chernihiv& Nizhyn were left without electricity due to Russian strikes. There has been no power supply in the cities since 6 a.m. Hospitals,water utilities,other critical infrastructure facilities have been switched to generators. 📹 Suspilne

Ukrainian tennis player Oleksandra Oliynykova spoke out at Australian Open,asking for support for🇺🇦: Last night I spent in Ukraine before the trip here,here was an explosion just near my home&a Shahed drone hit the home just across the road.My apartment was literally shaking because of the explosion

I haven’t had electricity for over 48 hours; it just returned, and I’m afraid to turn anything on because it feels like it could turn off any second. Still no heating.

Ok, this made me chuckle. 58% of Swiss say: “I would like neutrality to be interpreted in such a way that Switzerland can join a defence alliance such as NATO if the threat increases.” Which is a hilarious question & position as joining NATO is the end of neutrality.

NORWAY PM: I HAVE REPEATEDLY CLEARLY EXPLAINED TO TRUMP THAT IT IS AN INDEPENDENT COMMITTEE THAT AWARDS THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE

This problem might very well soon find its solution www.politico.eu/europe-poll-...

I’m reading warnings about a massive russian attack, with the goal of a total blackout in Kyiv for several days. We’ve been advised to charge all devices. I will. I will… when we have electricity 🙈

Alle relevanten Ukrainischen Beobachterkanäle warnen vor einem massiven russischen Luftangriff in der kommenden Nacht. Diese russische, inhumane Drecksbande will die Ukraine - pünktlich zum WEF - in einen totalen Blackout stürzen. 🤬 Was ich russland und seinen Zombies wünsche, schreibe ich nicht.

French vehicle manufacturer Renault will start building long-range attack drones at its Le Mans and Cléon plants. Renault will produce up to 600 of the drones per month, with some employees voluntarily transferred from the automotive chassis and motor lines.

Dugin: the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus should not be sovereign. According to him, Moscow should not tolerate the existence of independent Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Was übersehen wird: Das entsenden einer winzigen Vorauseinheit aus 8 Ländern hat beim 🍊 Arschloch dazu geführt, dass er bereits vor militärischen Massnahmen gekniffen hat und nun mit Zöllen kommt. Zeit zu drohen, man wird die US Bonds auf den Markt werfen, oder seine Tech-Busenkumpels besteuern. 😏

French President Macron on Trump’s Greenland threats: “No intimidation nor threat will influence us, neither in Ukraine, nor in Greenland, nor anywhere else in the world… Tariff threats are unacceptable and Europeans will respond to them in a united and coordinated manner.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei appeared in public after protests began, calling the U.S. president a “criminal” for alleged actions against the Iranian people. His comments come amid rising unrest and pressure on Tehran. #IranProtests

Activist Ilia Hashemi reports that some Iranians briefly regained internet access early Saturday, allowing them to upload footage from Tehran, Isfahan, and Mashhad. The videos, filmed around Jan 8-9, show fires and clashes, including at a state TV building in Isfahan.

Senator Lindsey Graham said help for Iran’s people “is on the way,” warning that without U.S. backing, Iran risks a disaster worse than Afghanistan. He called the regime’s removal “good for America” and urged Trump to support Iranians. #IranProtests

Der italienische Zoll hat ein unter Sanktionen stehendes Schiff der russischen „Schattenflotte“ festgesetzt. Das Schiff transportierte 33.000 Tonnen Eisen, das in Noworossijsk geladen worden war. GUT! Aber… Warum zur Hölle erst jetzt? Warum zur Hölle nicht alle diese Schiffe in der ganzen EU? 😡

New footage coming out of Karaj, Gohardasht district on Friday, Jan 9. Lots of protestors were out on the streets with blazes everywhere and lots of destroyed vehicles.

CNN reports: U.S. officials confirm any strike on Iran would exclude ground troops, with no intent for a long-term military intervention. Meanwhile, Iran’s IRGC commander vows decisive retaliation if strikes occur, accusing Trump and Netanyahu of killing Iranian youth and security forces.

Again, I’m going to keep banging the lonely drum that the fact that we are threatening the territorial sovereignty of our closest allies is a gross violation of our UN & NATO treaty obligations, poses a massive threat to national security & world order, & should immediately end this presidency.

German authorities have issued a new NOTAM cautioning German airlines from entering Iranian airspace - Flightradar24

◾️Buk SAM system; ◾️Buk-M1 SAM system; ◾️Strela-10 SAM system; ◾️Tor-M2 SAM system. Strikes were carried out by the soldiers of the 412th Nemesis Unmanned Systems Brigade in coordination with the Deep Strike Center.The Strela-10 system was destroyed by the operators of the 413th Raid USR. Glory!

"Do you think it would be a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to use military force to take possession of Greenland from Denmark?" Good idea: 4% Bad idea: 71% (Ipsos) 4%. He did it. He finally hit Lizardman's Constant.

US Air Force aircraft have begun evacuating from Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Six KC-135R Stratotankers have just departed Doha amid rising tensions, as the US prepares for a possible strike on Iran and anticipates potential retaliation.

In a letter to UN chief Guterres, Iran’s FM accused “terrorist elements” of sabotaging peaceful protests and carrying out violence “in the style of ISIS,” citing killings and burnings. Tehran called U.S. human rights claims misleading, rejected all foreign intervention.

The United States needs military access to Greenland, which it already has, to defend the Arctic, which it already does, from Russian and Chinese ships, which aren’t actually there, and this is so important we should destroy the Western alliance to get it, do I have that right?

Arms manufacturing giant Rheinmetall has received a site in Ukraine to build a munitions production plant, the company says via Ukrinform. Rheinmetall is fulfilling its commitments and already has an active contract to supply equipment for the future factory.