Current Trump Administration policy is not working. Putin is emboldened. He will not stop unless we stop him.

"Reducing US military aid to Ukraine will neither lead to a sustainable peace in Ukraine nor compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to reassess his theory of victory" understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Maxar collected images of before / after damage to Russian aircraft as a result of Operation Spiderweb. This is not a comprehensive view of the damage. Cloud cover obscured several of the other Russian airbases that were reportedly also struck by drones. 📷 @Maxar

Ukraine demonstrated that it can cause strategic effects using FPV drones. Small UAS are not confined to the tactical level of warfare. Tremendous operation.

Same energy.

There are things the US can do to *make* Vladimir stop. Putin has vulnerabilities we are either overlooking or choosing not to leverage. Putin is banking on the US letting Russia off the hook despite Russia's own precarious position

The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process. The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵

1/ Today's occupation update focuses heavily on Russia's efforts to deport Ukrainian children and teens to Russia and expose them to Russification programs. I discuss how programs such as "University Shifts" and "Cultural Map 4+85" are just a small part of a much larger ecosystem ⬇️

Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023. www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e... A quick 🧵on Popov:

Interesting footage of Russian forces' tactical training to defeat FPV drone threats using shotguns. Russian sport skeet shooters are helping instruct Russian soldiers learn how to hit fast-moving targets with shotguns.

Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return. Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵

Satellite imagery collected on March 21 shows damage from Ukrainian strikes on storage facilities at Russia’s Engels airbase. An ammunition & weapons storage area on the airbase's NE edge was damaged. Destroyed buildings & storage bunkers with craters are visible. Image Maxar Technologies

Waiting for Moscow to offer one (1) concession.

Available evidence from the battlefield does not indicate any Russian encirclements of Ukrainian forces at scale, and certainly not by the thousands.

You're falling for Kremlin language and mind games if you think Putin's statement means he accepted the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire deal. Putin actually rejected the terms of President Trump's proposal and is now trying to change the proposal's substance.

The Kremlin is not responding enthusiastically to the US-Ukraine proposal for a 30-day ceasefire.

The temporal correlation between the suspension of US intelligence sharing with Ukraine and the start of Russia's collapse of the Ukrainian Kursk salient is noteworthy.

Russia, not Ukraine, is the obstacle to peace. This is evident in the data. Russia has intensified its drone/missile strike campaign against Ukraine after President Trump was inaugurated. Ukraine has offered many concessions to start peace processes. Russia has offered zero.

Russia is the obstacle to peace in Ukraine. Not Ukraine. The proper strategy should be to erode Russia's leverage and grant Ukraine leverage until peace talks. Not the other way around.

Terrible decision. Cutting intel sharing will grant Russian forces enhanced protection at the operational level. Russian battlefield gains have been dropping since late 2024, but this stands to help Russia rebuild lost momentum.

For the 58th time in two weeks: Europe, stop freaking out over every crazy thing Trump says. He will keep saying crazy things every day, and he changes his mind constantly. Focus on what YOU are going to do to advance Ukrainian victory and undermine Russia.

Interesting things are happening in Toretsk.

Belarus has ratified an agreement that will allow Russia to build military bases / installations in Belarus, permanently expanding Russia's forward presence on NATO's Eastern flank. Not surprising. I've been forecasting such a development for years. tass.ru/mezhdunarodn...

Since minerals in Ukraine have become relevant for the policy debate, our interactive control of terrain map of Ukraine now includes Ukrainian minerals. Clicking on a mineral tells the user what it is. storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7...

Block aid, argue that aid doesn't matter, blame all issues on Ukrianian underperformance vs Western lag and under-resourcing, etc.

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.

Any peace deal starting from the basis of the 2022 Istanbul protocols must be a non-starter.

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)

Product of necessity. Share with those who need it.

NEW | Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage: The US can use the enormous challenges RUS will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing & even expanding military support to UKR. 1/8 Special Report: isw.pub/RussiaWeakness

Training Ground Belarus. The Western intelligence must include Belarus’ training capacity in its assessment of Russian force generation capabilities. The Russian military has leveraged & likely will continue to leverage the Belarusian military as trainers for new Russian forces.

Important and timely piece by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social. Indispensable knowledge and arguments for anyone thinking seriously about negotiations for and end to war in Ukraine.

Completely unacceptable if true. It would be like Western industry is selling the rope for the West's own gallows.

Studying war is stressful: physically, mentally, and emotionally. Hobbies are crucial for wellbeing & sustainment. Many don't know this, but one of my hobbies when not working is film photography. I thought I may share some of that hobby here. Here are some 35mm shots I recently took in Normandy.

Ukraine's operations in Kursk are a complex subject & most reactions proclaiming it to be a total failure/success are often too reductionist. Ukrainian forces have tied up approximately a combined arms army's worth of Russian combat power in Kursk that can't be used elsewhere.

Despite significant military setbacks and mounting economic challenges, Putin has not changed his demands for negotiations with Ukraine. Putin is not interested only in territory. He is interested in the destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign state. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=hy6i...

Russia has permanently expanded Russian military basing in Belarus since 2020. In maps: Russia's permanent military presence in Belarus in 2020 vs during Russia's invasion of Ukraine verses 2024.

In my latest report for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social I provide an update on the Kremlin’s alarmingly successful strategic effort to de facto annex Belarus. A quick thread.

Ukrainian forces have resumed offensive operations in Kursk and are confirmed to have made tactical advances within at least 300 meters of Berdin. Quick thread on tracking tactical Ukrainian advances:

We've given our maps a cosmetic facelift for the new year.

Concerning SVR press release regarding Moldova’s gas crisis, claiming Sandu wants a military seizure of MGRES. Moscow will probably end up covering supply using Trans-Balkan pipeline — but Russia has always used gas negotiations to pressure Chisinau into different economic/political concessions.

Geolocated combat footage posted on December 22 confirms that Ukrainian forces made tactical gains on the Zaporizhia frontline south of Kamianske, as Russian sources reported on December 20 and 21. Russian forces previously advanced in this area in October 2024.

The Russian use of drones and drone innovation may degrade over the coming months as a result of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) coordinated effort to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces within the Russian Armed Forces. A thread on my latest analysis: isw.pub/RussianDrone...

This is why one needs landmines.

In 2015, Russia dramatically entered the Syrian war, firing missiles from the Caspian Sea and launching airstrikes. The display was meant to herald Moscow's resurgence as a global power capable of projecting force across the globe. After nearly a decade of effort, they lost

So basically, every Russian I sent to die in Syria died for nothing. I remain a master strategist.

Russian VDV Telegram Channel "VDV for Honor and Justice" reported that Ukrainian forces landed on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Oleshky, Kherson Oblast. We've not observed confirmation or supporting reporting at this time.

2/ Russian forces have suffered an estimated 125,800 casualties during a period of intensified offensive operations in Sept-Nov 2024 in exchange for 2,356 sq km of gains. (Or approximately 53 Russian casualties per square kilometer of Ukrainian territory seized.) isw.pub/UkrWar120524

Russian Z-blogger Fighterbomber says the situation in Syria is catastrophic. According to him, Russian military bases and airfield are virtually unprotected from shelling, there is nowhere to withdraw them, and evacuation is completely impossible.

Russia’s accelerated rate of advance has yielded an appalling high number of casualties and lost equipment for what are still relatively limited gains that have yet to materialize into anything operationally significant. Kupyansk and Chasiv Yar still hold, as does the less critical Pokrovsk.