NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5) Read more:

The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth. This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵

NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone... Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)

"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...

Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.

NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States. Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...

It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite. Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵

The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime. A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.

The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which aimed to replace the Wagner Group) to a loyal Russian billionaire. A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.

. @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the strikes show that “nowhere in Russia is safe,” and that Ukraine is “shaping a new type of warfare.” via @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u...

NEW: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities. Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA... Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)

NEW | Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine. Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025 Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants. (🧵1/9) Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125

“Putin is continuing to conflate the negotiations needed to reach a cease-fire agreement with those needed to reach a peace settlement in order to drive confusion in the West and falsely paint Ukraine as intransigent,” @katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...

NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine. isw.pub/ForceGen051425 More ⏬

NEW | Hiding Russia’s Weakness: isw.pub/HidingRussia... The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)

NEW | Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025: Russian federal subjects continue to use dynamic pricing for one-time enlistment bonuses to incentivize volunteer recruitment. 1/3 Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...

@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...

“Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning.” - @katstepanenko.bsky.social

Putin is expediting the formation of a country-wide, veteran-based elite loyal to the regime and Russia's war efforts by lowering eligibility requirements for veterans to join local government service. A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.

The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process. The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵

Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023. www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e... A quick 🧵on Popov:

Excited to announce that @thestudyofwar.bsky.social launched a new product line focusing on Russia's recruitment, technological adaptations, defense industrial base & force reconstitution. First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...

Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return. Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵

ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social spoke to @nypost.com on the implications of the Trump administration pausing aid to Ukraine: nypost.com/2025/03/03/w...

ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social spoke to @cnn.com's @ivanakottasova.bsky.social on the impact of the Trump administration's decision to pause US military aid to Ukraine (🧵1/7): www.cnn.com/2025/03/04/e...

MORE: Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded to the Zelensky-Trump meeting on March 3 by falsely framing Moscow and Washington DC as being aligned on settling Russia's war in Ukraine. (🧵1/7)

NEW: The Kremlin is falsely framing the US objectives of achieving peace in Ukraine as being aligned with Russia's stated objectives of destroying Ukraine as a sovereign state in the aftermath of the Feb 28 White House meeting between Zelensky and Trump. (🧵1/3)

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.🧵 (1/9)

NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome

NEW | Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage: The US can use the enormous challenges RUS will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing & even expanding military support to UKR. 1/8 Special Report: isw.pub/RussiaWeakness

Russia has permanently expanded Russian military basing in Belarus since 2020. In maps: Russia's permanent military presence in Belarus in 2020 vs during Russia's invasion of Ukraine verses 2024.

The Russian use of drones and drone innovation may degrade over the coming months as a result of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) coordinated effort to establish the Unmanned Systems Forces within the Russian Armed Forces. A thread on my latest analysis: isw.pub/RussianDrone...

NEW: Russian Efforts to Centralize Drone Units May Degrade Russian Drone Operations Read the full analysis from @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianDrone...

Blending the volunteer and government support efforts - Russia's Espaniola volunteer battalion is partnering with DOSAAF (a gov-backed org working with civ-mil cooperation) to test, evaluate and scale up the development of UAVs and UGVs. t.me/projectArcha...

The Russian military's recent controversial efforts to disband drone detachments may be a part of an ongoing Russian MoD effort to establish a heavily centralized, separate service branch for unmanned systems. This reorganization is already introducing some dysfunction into the Russian military. 1/

3/ " @katstepanenko.bsky.social a co-author of that report, told CNN the strategy was a revival of the Soviet concept of “reflexive control,” by which a state imposes a false set of choices on its adversary, forcing the adversary to make decisions against its interests." isw.pub/DenyingRussia032624

Correct. Putin is extremely unlikely to use nuclear weapons. That said, there's an interesting reporting dynamic at play. Leakers were telling the NYT otherwise back in September. What changed?

" @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @cnn.com the [Kremlin] strategy was a revival of the Soviet concept of 'reflexive control,' by which a state imposes a false set of choices on its adversary, forcing the adversary to make decisions against its own interests. www.cnn.com/2024/11/28/e...

NEW: The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. isw.pub/UkrWar111424 🧵(1/5)