(7/8) Together with the OBBBA, this fiscal switch of lower income tax revenues, higher tariff revenues, and spending cuts targeting poorer Americans will leave most Americans with lower after-tax incomes.

This wouldn't be happening without OBBBA. The economic damage from >$200B targeting, incl. population loss, needs to be reflected in economic assessments of OBBBA. [Reminder this econ focus isn't meant to diminish important moral issues with targeting at-risk immigrants.] bsky.app/profile/wash...

I'm mom to a (lovely) autistic child & so tired of this unscientific, mother-blaming rhetoric. Evidence shows Tylenol doesn't cause autism (& vaccines don't, either). People have blamed autism on moms' choices for nearly 100 yrs, making their challenges even harder. www.npr.org/2016/09/09/4...

Racial Capitalism and International Tax Law: The Story of Global Jim Crow (http://bit.ly/3JG8CLP) digs deep into the technical complexities of the global tax system (bet you didn't even know there was one!).

The article below says OBBBA healthcare cuts were partially motivated by a Paragon assertion that "for most people, insurance coverage has little or no impact on objective measures of health." If assertion is correct, it means income inequality is much worse. 1/2 www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/h...

New from FACT Coalition - More America Last than America First. Our latest policy brief analyzes the HUGE tax cut for America’s largest corporations in the just passed reconciliation bill, costing nearly $170 billion in public revenues over the coming decade. thefactcoalition.org/policy-brief...

This is must-read, thank you EPI. I remain puzzled that we didn't hear more about econ effects of OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, esp. from govt groups that had models equipped for that. For sure, part of story seems OBBBA sponsors didn't wait for these results. bsky.app/profile/benz...

1 in 5 workers is an immigrant. Immigrants are a crucial part of the US economy, and Trump's radical deportation agenda will hurt us all. Trump’s increase in deportations will destroy 6 million jobs—for both immigrants AND US-born workers: www.epi.org/publication/...

Like this paper showing Pillar 2 could be efficient way to target profit shifting. Caveat is Pillar 2's tax rate test is very diluted. So P2 mostly (tho where's shipping, etc?) identifies BEPS, but actual tax collected seems low & getting lower. @gabrielzucman.bsky.social bsky.app/profile/taxo...

There isn't quite yet a critical mass of countries to implement an effective global minimum tax on the super-rich. But the idea is far more technically and politically feasible than most realize - a crucial lesson learnt from recent global tax successes: doi.org/10.1111/1758...

Byrd no-deficit-beyond-2034 (and pre-2034 deficit restriction) fell easily, with 53 R votes. It didn't matter that 15 years ago the D Senate did NOT follow Obama Adm's use of current policy for fiscal cliff. Now only discipline is (fgn-investor-influenced) bond market. 1/2 bsky.app/profile/bbko...

Penn-W (-) and Tax Foundation (+) are already out with OBBBA macro analyses. More are coming. The 1st question should be what models do for direct OBBBA & other things: (1) Big OBBBA targeting of at-risk immigrants; (2) Tariffs, incl. imposed on intermediate inputs used by US-based companies; 1/2

Not minimizing morality of all this, but sometime want to know why US labor supply effects from ICE & other funding & OBBBA tax/benefit squeeze of at-risk immigrants didn't seem to show up much in estimates. Not faulting any analysts (this stuff is hard), but rather people who didn't want to know.

Our @factcoalition.bsky.social reaction to the megabill: The international provisions of this bill, which have been marketed as America-first reforms, actually put big corporations and tax havens first. Congress is betraying promises made to American workers to bring back domestic jobs.

(7/7) The only risk for Medicaid funding is that Congress actively chooses to cut it. Cutting it doesn’t make more room for others. It just harms the people we cut off.

The US base erosion and anti-abuse tax (BEAT) arbitrarily denies x-border deductions & some (all in 2026) tax credits, with 10% (12.5% in 2026) tax rate. For taxpayers with BEAT liability, BEAT effectively is a gross receipts tax, not unlike a digital services tax. Do Canada et al know this? 1/4

Left, CBO shows OBBBA lower 5 deciles avg -$409 yearly. Right, enacted permanent TCJA, proxied by 2027, had net tax and outlay of -$615 for lower half. OBBBA benefits top groups more than original TCJA did, but both feast on lower income groups. Original TCJA's regressivity has been overlooked.

The school-voucher/scholarship tax credit in the GOP tax bill is unlike any other tax break. Our story: www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

Years after Warren Buffett basically got it right about his low tax rate, many distributional models still often describe U.S. federal taxes as uniformly progressive. @dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity. equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...

Sen bill does well devoting $17B to adoption, dependent care, & DCTC. But that pales next to radical* credit for private school donors costing $26B. (*So sweet it's a tax shelter. Also, compare it to bill's denial of public-school-supporting prop tax ded.) h/t @itep.org @amyhanauer.bsky.social

I've been pushing the idea OBBBA could cause a big labor supply shock. That technical framing is aimed at the fiscal debate. But my dry language isn't intended to minimize full (incl. moral) scope of targeting at-risk immigrants as well as safetynet users. I am guessing CBO staff (⬇️) feel same.

This #Juneteenth, we reflect on freedom and economic justice. Research reveals how systemic barriers continue to restrict economic mobility for Black Americans — from dissipated generational gains to disparities in unemployment insurance access. Learn more ➡️ equitablegrowth.org/on-juneteent...

Years after Warren Buffett basically got it right about his low tax rate, many distributional models still often describe U.S. federal taxes as uniformly progressive. @dsmitch28.bsky.social and I concur with @wyden.senate.gov's skepticism of this progressivity. equitablegrowth.org/the-funny-ma...

It's unclear that CBO OBBBA scoring is done (below frozen 5/20/25; need interactions, etc.) 2 things to look for: (a) Fiscal effects of OBBBA immigration stuff. CBO has modeled similar for 20 yrs, & some of this may be in conventional score; (b) CBO's broad macro take www.cbo.gov/publication/...

In the absence of a full score for OBBBA's targeting of at-risk immigrants, here's perhaps a useful 2024 CBO report on a "surge." In looking at this, note that OBBBA reverses sign of the deficit effect of CBO's surge exercise, and OBBBA's effects likely are both smaller and bigger than $0.9T. 1/2

House passed OBBBA 8 days ago. Govt, thinktank, & private macro modeling should say if entirety of OBBBA (incl. ICE outlays) will cause US labor supply shock. That especially applies to orgs that had modeling capacity for immigration effects before OBBBA. If a model can't do this, OK, do caveats.

These star authors nicely survey 7 policies, growth, & scoring. Yet the policy "immigration of high-skilled workers" seems narrow as OBBBA & Admin's policies attack all immigration (students, H1-Bs, others). It's not the authors' fault, but what we really need now is the coming labor shock scored.

No one's talking much about Chinese compliance with the global minimum tax anymore (it used to be a core GOP concern!), but this is likely big news on that front: Hong Kong just passed the minimum tax rules.

Some policymakers and the bond market may not see any moral issue in imposing tax penalties and benefit reductions on at-risk migrants and their families... yet if tax compliance reduction and this labor supply shock were scored, it could change recon narrative. 1/2 www.nytimes.com/2025/05/27/u...

See @itep.org summary on tax penalties on at-risk immigrants. House reconciliation bill also reduces health benefits for immigrants, increases ICE funding, etc. CBO, JCT, etc., should consider: (1) Effect on tax compliance, and (2) Does all of this cause a labor supply shock? 1/3 t.co/BZ6CQh6qL7

A process puzzle. Left 4/29/25, CBO & JCT seem to say that as an exception they would include population changes in conventional estimates. Right is CBO's director's 4/28/25 blog, saying population changes will not be in conventional recon estimates because of "timing." 1/2

Still unsure of CBO/JCT call if immigration stuff in House recon (incl. ICE/DHS stuff & tax/outlay penalties) changes US population "significantly" and so affects either conventional (which CBO/JCT 4/29/26 letter below seems to suggest) or macro scores. 1/2

These new tax #s only provide a partial snapshot of the Trump/House R agenda. They do not include cuts to Medicaid, food & more, or tariffs. We hope to have combined impacts soon–but even if you just add in the effects of the tariffs most families barely benefit if at all.

And that's not even all! Instead of properly shutting down the egregious bad pass-through workarounds to the SALT cap (taxlawcenter.org/tealbook/pol...), the bill embeds the (arguably unlawful) workarounds in law -- but keeps it alive for certain passthroughs that qualify for 199A.

CBO/JCT "account for the size of the economy to change" with regard to "budgetary effects of benefits provided and taxes paid" for policies that "would significantly change the population" (quotes from CBO/JCT letter to Hill, 4/29/25). Seems like might apply now to recon? bsky.app/profile/bbko...

Yes, this tease/distraction idea of a 40%-vs-37% top individual income tax rate is incremental and won't do much to the very well-off. But 40% could relieve pressures for 199A, estate tax, corporate relief, etc. Also, suburban House Rs might offer this as SALT offset ... bsky.app/profile/jeis...

Harvard may not be at the top of most people’s list of favorite charitable causes, but if the President’s and WH's unlawful interference in IRS actions regarding specific TPs and charities isn’t stopped, it means he or any president can come for your church or community group.

Beautiful tribute from former Social Security Commissioner @martinomalley.bsky.social on the 30th anniversary of the Oklahoma City domestic terrorist attack. 168 people were murdered on April 19, 1995, including SSA employees serving the public. We will always remember.

To be taken seriously, the idea of a fixed ratio of (Federal revenue)/GDP has to discuss, among other things, the U.S. age pyramid. E.g., below shows big increase at pyramid top, raising Federal health/Social Security/etc. costs, in relatively short time between 2000 and 2020. 1/2

On how to frame income & tax distributions, when/if we escape the crazy of 2025: Figure from @taxnotes.bsky.social article that advocates combo of national income plus net nominal holding gains of produced assets (both are national accounts concepts) to show comprehensive capital income. 1/2

1 / I recently delivered the Richard Crawford Pugh lecture at University of San Diego Law School, which I have posted here. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

"For the first time taxation of the super-rich is on the global agenda, and #Brazil is proud to have brought the debate to the G20." 💬 Guilherme Mello from @minfazenda.bsky.social in a discussion with @gabrielzucman.bsky.social and @surruiz.bsky.social at the conference on #TaxingBillionaires

"The US doesn’t need to resort to either punishing or joining tax havens such as Ireland. Instead, we should start by fixing our America-last tax code." Read @zorkamilin.bsky.social's new piece in @bloombergtax.com on the need for int'l tax reforms to tackle offshoring.

In the debate on the Republican tax bill, an unusual phrase is coming up: current policy baseline. Under this idea, extending the 2017 Trump Tax Cuts may look free on paper. That smells fishy. @econwonk.bsky.social explains the 4 things you need to know about it. www.thirdway.org/memo/4-facts...

U.S. auto unions are very aware of related party border price manipulations (inbound & outbound) practiced by MNEs. Much (but not all) econ analyses and fed gvt itself overlook BEPS. A good start for convincing unions that tariffs are wrong ... would be to address BEPS. bsky.app/profile/jaso...

New @centeronbudget.bsky.social blog post by me walking through today's @budgetlab.bsky.social analysis on the House GOP Budget showing it would: 1.) Make the lives of the bottom 40% of families worse by making health and groceries more expensive. 2.) Still give large tax cuts to the rich.

(1) The CR is a bad bill (see large & pointless cut to DC funding). But, I want to focus on what it does not do: it does not authorize the lawless actions of Trump admin to unilaterally slash agencies’ budgets. Those acts remain lawless and should continue to be fought in court.

With a current policy baseline, policymakers duck responsibility and there may not even be an official TCJA 2.0 income distribution. Nobody is making Hill adopt current policy, but it doesn't help that (neoliberal?) Obama admin pushed it & Bush43 admin flirted with it. www.wsj.com/opinion/repu...

Studying the optimal design of corporate tax policy in a life-cycle model with imperfectly competitive firms and households that save by purchasing equity shares in a stock market, from Ignacio González, Juan A. Montecino, and Joseph E. Stiglitz https://www.nber.org/papers/w33544

What this does to compliance, plus other Admin things incl. crypto, tax regs, transparency, P2, bribery, & DOJ tax positions, should affect CBO's revenue baselines for Spring economic update and mid-session review. I don't envy CBO its task, but this could be game-changer. bsky.app/profile/lily...