Nvidia and Apple contributed 58 basis points of the 46 basis points in total return for the $SPY today

Gold seems extended but could run further, if history is any guide. The millennial-decade bull market featured three run-ups extending >62% above 200-week trend. A 62% extension currently targets 3920, plus 50 points per month to reflect rising 200wma.

Will this bull market ever end? The 3 traditional reasons: 1) Fed tightening, 2) Rampant speculation (a la 2000), and 3) A recession. The Fed ain’t gonna tighten… and speculation’s not rampant a la 2000. But #3? Well, the stock market **is** a leading economic indicator...

74% downside day at 12:10. DVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See cmtassociation.org/wp-content/u... for explanation.

To fill this morning’s gaps, $SPY would have to rally to 643.14 and $QQQ to 568.54. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

RIP, NY Times Mini Crossword. Plenty of free alternatives out there, like www.latimes.com/games/mini-c.... #NYTimesPaywallSucks

Are Intel bonds now 10% Treasuries? Asking for a friend...

KWEB poised.

Friday was a 91.5% upside day, which we usually see towards the beginning of a move, not after an extended one. (I report; you decide.) UVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See cmtassociation.org/wp-content/u... for explanation.

96% upside day at 10:30. UVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See cmtassociation.org/wp-content/u... for explanation. (Link has been updated.) Can also follow @HamzeiAnalytics.

If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try again?

I am seeing some concern regarding some breadth measures. I don't follow the more esoteric things like S&P-only breadth (index-related activity makes all 500 stocks move at once), and the all NYSE issues A-D line is currently a not-yet-concerning 1427 net advances below its high.

Today’s Wordle word is a word Wordle had no use using…

Just wanted to point out that $IT was in a well-defined downtrend long before the sky fell in. To paraphrase Dave Keller: "Bad things happen to stocks in downtrends."

UST30Y, long-term perspective.

Both gaps have been filled. Phil D. Gapp (legendary technical analyst) is taking the rest of the day off.

To fill this morning’s gaps, $SPY would have to decline to 633.44 and $QQQ to 567.76. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

Gapology 101: The takeaway from a gap is how quickly it gets filled -- if at all. This tells us how strong the underlying trend is. (Gaps not filled quickly=strong underlying trend.) There is no law whatsoever that says long-ago gaps **must** be filled. None whatsoever.

This is a chart of the NASDAQ 100 with a relative strength line vs. the NASDAQ Composite rather than the usual S&P 500. I find it interesting that the NASDAQ 100/$QQQ, where the MAG 7 live, has been underperforming the NASDAQ Composite for three months now.

Legendary market technician Phil D. Gapp called me from his summer retreat on Nantucket to point out that Friday's big gaps in $SPY and $QQQ were both filled today.

Today was an 81% upside day. Would only be significant if we had another 80%-plus day tomorrow. UVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See asymmetryobservations.com/wp-content/u... explanation. Can also follow @HamzeiAnalytics.

The brouhaha over the "wrong" employment data brings an old Armand Hammer story to mind. Long, long ago, OXY was traded on the Pacific Coast Exchange. If it sold off for no apparent reason he was known to storm into the visitors gallery and start screaming at the specialist.

2/ Geek note: In only one of these seven cases did 63-day drawdown exceed 21-day drawdown, suggesting the possibility of a brief pullback despite seasonal headwinds into October 2025.

Just thought I'd throw this out there given the brouhaha over the jobs numbers.

"Only" a 70% Downside Day at 10:30. DVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See docs.cmtassociation.org/docs/2002Dow... for explanation.

$AAPL chart not looking too good after the first hour.

To fill this morning’s gaps, $SPY would have to rally to 630.77 and $QQQ to 563.87. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

Outside day today. (No need to watch FinTV tonight; already know everyone sold the opening.)

Lotta chatter about the negative breadth this morning. To put it into perspective, his is how things stood as of last night. Last Wednesday's high was confirmed, so the breadth "problem" is only eight days old. At least at the moment

The Great Gapsby

This morning's gaps were filled before famed market technician Phil D. Gapp got to the office. (This is a 15-minute bar chart.)

Update: This model turned bullish yesterday with 10 of 11 sectors exceeding 200dma. A cyclical top is probably not imminent, despite the likelihood of a pullback based on volatility compression, seasonal tendencies, extension above moving averages, etc.

When did they add it to the Dow? Asking for a friend…

China multi-year base. #WatchingPaintDry

Another day, another billion shares in the first hour...

Today's NASDAQ wunderkinder: over a billion shares already (10:20).

VEU on the loose.

Periodic Reminder:

Once in a while I post a chart of the NASDAQ wunderkinder du jour. If you've ever wondered how they did afterwards, this is one of them:

GrabAGun is not your garden-variety weekly chart...

Things I really hate: The Wordle answer isn't in the "Official Wordle word list".

Look who's running in the 2nd race at Saratoga on Thursday! Place your bets! cc @walterdeemer.bsky.social

The rest of the world stock markets have been underperforming the US for over a decade. They made a valiant attempt to reverse that trend early this year but, alas, the pesky 200 week m. a. got in the way again. But someday, maybe...

$QQQ had a little outside day today.

Rest of world appears to be basing versus SPX, but is not yet trending versus SPX. #WatchingPaintDry

A Public Service Announcement:

The April 25 Zweig Breadth Thrust was, quite obviously, a “good signal” -- leaving me chagrinned that we came oh-so-close to a Breakaway Momentum signal May 5 and failed (all we needed was minimal negative breadth, but the damn number was -943). C'est la vie, I guess… <sigh>

Tonight’s featured item at many Manhattan restaurants: Bear Stew.