Adding to precarious conditions in tens, UST30Y has again breached the psychologically important 5% level, raising the perennial question: Good buy or goodbye?

Let's do a little TA lesson today since I get asked all the time about islands (on charts, not tropical ones) CCL has an island -----IF today's gap does not fill. Fill the gap, no island. I hope you can see there is 'water' all around that island.

Nearly every guest on tv in the last few days: the market needs a correction but it's all healthy. Reminder: everyone wants to buy em down 10% until they actually go down 10% As @walterdeemer.bsky.social says, when the time comes to buy you won't want to

When everybody is bearish, they’re probably going to be wrong. When everybody is bullish, they may be right for a while. –Burton Crane, as paraphrased by @walterdeemer.bsky.social

Today's NASDAQ Wunderkinder is Hub Cyber Security Ltd: #$HUBC. Traded a billion shares already today. Price: 43 cents, up 32 cents. Was over 3000 a year ago. Dollars.

Mid-week humor. H/t @MebFaber

Walter @walterdeemer.bsky.social shared this on the other site yesterday. Great story.

Comment: SPX has demonstrated notable continuation following extreme momentum in momentum-factor stocks since MTUM was launched in 2013. Different this time?

Goodbye, Mr. Bond?

good morning dear Helene and Happy Birthday! @hmeisler.bsky.social

Smart chart. H/t @TechCharts

#$QQQ on the loose.

Comments: 1) SPX >6993 is required to produce a signal via weekly close. 2) There were many prior successes since SPX inception, with notable failures in May 1957 and May 1969. 3) The best signals were qualified by greater drawdowns than the current case.

Tomorrow’s session should be informative. While geopolitical developments could easily derail the nascent SPX reversal, a show of strength, such as closing above the open and in the top third of the daily bar, would be constructive, in my view. Thank you Captain Obvious?

World Liberty Financial — at the center of Trump’s crypto empire — down 15% today and below .08. 52-week high was .46.

Equity put/call ratio goes sub .50 for the first time since January. My pinned tweet works just fine.

The market opened huge potential breakaway gaps from three-week head-and-shoulders bottoms this morning. To fill them, #$SPY would have to decline to 659.61 and #$QQQ to 588.98. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

Both gaps have been filled.

This morning’s gaps left an island top behind. #$SPY would have to advance to 653.00 and #$QQQ to 580.42 to fill them. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

83% of big daily advances occur below the 200dma. –Trivia Dept.

3 straight days the Spoos have traded more than 100 handles off the highs good times

Another day, another downside gap at the opening. #$SPY would have to rally to 644.82 and #$QQQ to 573.43 to fill this morning’s gaps -- and #$QQQ still has an unfilled gap from yesterday at 585.69. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

#$SPY would have to rally to 654.24 and #$QQQ to 585.69 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is. Also, that 13-day ma has defined the short-term downtrend pretty nicely of late.

They've already been filled.

#$SPY would have to decline to 657.03 and #$QQQ to 587.93 to fill this morning’s gaps. How quickly the gaps get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is… but if this morning’s gaps don’t get filled quickly they could be breakaway gaps.

Remember when people were fired for their lack of reverence when Charlie Kirk died?

A recent interview of mine is now on YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjK... The soundtrack's been dubbed because the facilitator was in Brazil. I don't really sound like that...

The important thing isn't that the market's oversold -- it's how the market responds to its oversold condition. Meanwhile, Thursday's gap was finally filled.

83% upside day at 10:30. Need two in a row to have any significance. UVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See cmtassociation.org/wp-content/u... for explanation.

#$SPX closed below the Dec low and today's gap, unlike others recently, wasn't closed during the day. This isn't fatal yet (the Jan 20 one [dashed line] wasn't closed until the following day) but the bullish forces need to pull themselves together here to limit further damage.

A mere 66% downside day at 11:00. Has no significance. DVOL/(UVOL+DVOL); Lowry’s definition. Data per wsj.com. See cmtassociation.org/wp-content/u... for explanation.

Another day… another downside gap at the opening… and another test of the support at the December low. #$SPY would have to rally to 673.34 and #$QQQ to 605.03 to fill today’s gaps. How quickly they get filled -- if at all – gives us an idea of how strong the underlying trend is.

This is exactly how my pinned tweet works.

Bent bigly but didn't break.

And here's the gap. Would take a rally to 669.76 to fill it.

Stocks don't open for 12 more hours, but with futures -125 the S&P looks like it will gap down through the Dec. low; a low which became even more significant after Wednesday's bounce off its corresponding support. And if the gap isn't filled quickly it would look pretty ominous.

1/ Bears have more proving to do, as no cyclical top since 1990 has occurred in absence of NYSE new lows >4% of total issues. My 10-day average is meant to reduce false signals from the Vince/Williams “bloodbath sidestepping” rule described here: tinyurl.com/6tjt3567

Here we go again.

They very often end when something blows up.

Your occasional reminder...

The European financial sector has a healthier relative-strength profile that its U.S. counterpart. Thank you, Captain Obvious?

“Goodbye, Mr. Bond.” –Auric Goldfinger

From the earliest days of the Internet; still my favorite Christmas video: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcDD...

Thank you!!

Industrial metals are breaking out (upper clip). Relative strength versus precious metals, not so much (lower clip).

Aaaaaaand scene $IRBTQ last trade 18 cents

www.amazon.com/dp/B0G8QB4G5... Another peek inside:

New book just dropped on Kindle! www.amazon.com/dp/B0G8QB4G5... 66 more insightful quotes from my 60+ years on Wall Street. Mostly my own — but from Helene Meisler, Larry Williams, Doug Kass, and Dave Keller, too. Not a "reading" book...an "idea" book!