Pro-tip: Whether EM has reversed its structural downtrend versus DM is definitional. BlackRock’s MSCI index (EEM) includes South Korea while Vanguard’s FTSE index (VWO) doesn’t. Is South Korea emerging or developed? You decide.

Great survey of big-picture trends and setups from the invaluable @callumthomas.bsky.social

Mid-week humor

83% of big daily advances occur below the 200dma. –Trivia Dept.

NYSE A-D line divergence has attended many, but not all, important tops. Divergence was conspicuously absent in January 2026, reducing, but not eliminating, the chance that a cyclical bear market is underway.

“You can always find exceptions, especially in hindsight.” –Bogi Yerra 🤪

SPX waterfall illustrated.

Add margin deceleration to the bearish side of the ledger. Comment: February cutoff suggests that surging oil prices and bond yields aren't the market's only problem. H/t @_rob_anderson

H/t @HumbleStudent

That escalated quickly.

10-day NYSE new lows is likely to hurdle 4% of total issues at today's close, given 179 new lows at 1pm. This qualifies January 28th as a cyclical top, but doesn't guarantee it, as described below.

NVDA is arguably breaking down from an 8-month topping process. Downside acceleration would support the case.

Phil D. Gap is busy these days.

Bitcoin 4-year cycle?

USD reversal threshold is 100.6 by this reckoning. Potential “cash is king” moment, a.k.a. risk-off event.

Change of character underway?

Mag-7 complex Head & Shoulders top eyes 56 or lower. Don't shoot the messenger.

MSCI Israel: Potential H&S top or consolidation.

Mid-week humor

1/ Volatility spikes occur during bear markets, but also manifest as “cracks” preceding cyclical tops. The chart below flags initial VIX >30 occurring >12 months after a cyclical bottom. SPX made subsequent new highs in 8 of 9 prior cases. (The COVID top gave no early warning.)

Prior support becomes potential resistance. #$MAGS

U.S. Dollar Index, long-term perspective.

1/ Is there any hope for bond investors? A breakdown in homebuilder stocks is one scenario that would favor lower yields. We’ve seen this movie before. And while not shown here, crude oil prices continued to rise sharply following peak yield, reaching $147 in July 2008.

Not hearing much Zweig-thrust chatter this morning, though another ZBT setup day was logged on Friday. Comment: It takes setups to generate signals, but signals are the actionable thing.

10-day NYSE new lows finished the week at 3.8% of total issues. It would take 190 new lows on Monday, or an average of 105 over the next three sessions, to surpass the 4% threshold.

Global 10-year government yields.

Mag-7 breaking bad.

SPX critical support.

1/ U.S. equities have suffered or stumbled during geopolitically induced oil shocks.

A recent interview of mine is now on YouTube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjK... The soundtrack's been dubbed because the facilitator was in Brazil. I don't really sound like that...

How high will crude fly? Impossible to know in advance, but prior geopolitical shocks since 1990 suggest $100-$140/bbl. Going back further, 1973/1979 analogs project $213/$136, if my math is correct.

Gold weekly bar. Next important support lies near 4400. GLD equivalent is approximately 4040.

Note to self: Sentiment is more of a trend-following tool than a mean-reversion indicator, except at fearful extremes.

I have a scheme for stopping war. It's this – no nation is allowed to enter a war till they have paid for the last one. –Attributed to Will Rogers

Executive summary. H/t @TechCharts

Mid-week humor

Gold & silver seem weary, given inability to advance during wartime uncertainty. Don't shoot the messenger.

H/t @MebFaber

Chop and drop? Or churn and turn?

Forex can set the tone. All eyes on USD?

To be clear, my 2% figure is the ratio of ZBT signals to the total number of setup days since 1960. Defining setups with clusters of setup days would produce a higher probability, though still a low number as evident from visual inspection.

MAG-7 critical support.

Worth noting yesterday's ZBT setup while acknowledging that only 2% of setups produce signals.

Mind the gap.

With all eyes on geopolitics, it’s worth monitoring non-headline items such as housing, private equity, and margin debt. Bear markets are often associated with credit contraction, or the perception of such.

Mid-week humor

SPX/GOLD, long-term perspective.

Gap filled. Pretty ominous chart averted. Carry on.

Global yields. 🤔

Breaking bad.