#$SOX would need to double over the next four months to match its post-1998 melt-up. Not a forecast, though perhaps of interest given obvious parallels to 1999.

Which interpretation? “Highest since Jan'18” or initial overweight?

The April 2026 run-up fell short of classic 10-day Breakaway Momentum, but did produce 20-day breadth consistent with bull-market continuation. As my old boss would say, “If you’re looking for perfection, you picked the wrong business.”

Comment: I'm aware that some sentiment surveys are running hot, yet still impressed that yesterday's AAII report logged just 39.3% bulls.

#$NVDA earnings on deck, post-market. TTM sales and earnings are currently 65% and 66%. Forward P/E is 19x.

If China is wining the technology race, you wouldn’t know it from KWEB.

Mid-week humor

Comment: SPX has demonstrated notable continuation following extreme momentum in momentum-factor stocks since MTUM was launched in 2013. Different this time?

Equal weight is underperforming yet still participating. Thank you, Captain Obvious?

Goodbye, Mr. Bond?

Fade trade.

Dollar collar. H/t @TechCharts

I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody. –James Carville

Silver: Is diagonal polarity a thing?

Here's one that qualifies. Fade SpaceX IPO?

Around the world in government yield.

Market shenanigans? Good reminder to doubt newsy breakouts.

Old saying: “The Fed tightens until something breaks.” Parallels to March 2000 and October 2007 are not yet supported by the Taylor Rule. 🤔

Just spew it. #$NKE

Since SOXX went vertical in mid-April, pullbacks have been limited to one or two days, begging the question: Is silicon the new silver?

Mid-week humor

Looks like USTs are past denial, anger and bargaining, and well on their way to depression and acceptance of the possibility of a hike cycle.

It's déjà vu all over again.

If my math is correct, NDR’s model will turn bearish if tomorrow's non-seasonally adjusted CPI exceeds 3.4% year-over-year. Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast currently projects 3.6%. Note: The model gives better buys than sells, per table inset. H/t @edclissold

Gold AVWAPs from Iran invasion (orange) and post-invasion low (blue), for those interested.

Pro-tip: Ask your LLM to favor criticism over flattery.

Smart chart. H/t @TechCharts

"If [inflation] rises from here it would be doing so from a higher base. That would be eerily like the early 1970’s when the inflation rate had just settled down from the Guns & Butter regime of the late 1960’s, only to get hit hard by the oil embargo in 1973." -Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity

There, fixed it. 🤪

Interesting May seasonal from the invaluable @WayneWhaley1136

That bond yields reversed a secular downtrend in 2022 doesn’t necessarily imply immediate continuation. An extended sideways is also plausible, as in the prior case. Presented in the spirit of open-mindedness. Not a forecast.

H/t @MebFaber

Anchored VWAPs from gold's blowoff top (blue) and invasion top (orange), for those interested.

Mid-week humor

Chip, rip, leadership.

Hang Seng Index, long-term perspective. #WatchingPaintDry

Sell in May has gone astray. Decamp if you must in July/August. 🤪

SPX is pressing its post-GFC trend channel after generating bullish momentum in mid-April. Price should “ride the rail” given fresh momentum regime and still youthful advance since April 2025. Channel position is a plausible headwind, however, suggesting no fat pitch at present.

Except for February 2020, all cyclical tops since 1990 were either attended by or preceded by AAII bulls >50%. Predominantly bullish sentiment has yet to occur in the post-April-2025 runup.

#$WTIC recently extended more than 50% versus 200-day trend. You have to go back to the oil embargo of 1973 to find a sharper runup.

Healthcare underperformance. How low can it go?

Chips bounce, gold sours. Tech on deck, after hours. 🤪

#$XBI jumps back into the creek.

“Try to avoid drawing lines to fit the data and remove all whipsaws because the biggest whipsaw then is in your future.” –Greg Morris

Mid-week humor

Old saying: “The market never discounts the same thing twice.” Oil prices are testing this adage in a post-momentum setting.

Markets alternate between range expansion and range contraction. Resolution of current SOXX sideways will provide the next directional clue.

MAG flag?

Impressive graphic, though highly dependent on index construction and security-market evolution. It’s hard to imagine a modern sector reaching 70%-100% given today’s diverse public-securities market.

Mag-4 Wednesday.