Note to self: XLP/SPY is echoing post-LTCM behavior, suggesting a mature secular regime.

How long do momentum regimes last? Longer than one might suspect. SPX is due for a breather, and could easily correct by 5-10%, but probably won’t peak until late-2026 or longer.

Revenge of passivity.

China tech, executive summary.

Large-scale reversal or failure to launch? Neve a layup, is it?

Bond yields have further to fall by this reckoning. Different this time?

FOMC on deck.

Mid-week humor

Gold seems extended but could run further, if history is any guide. The millennial-decade bull market featured three run-ups extending >62% above 200-week trend. A 62% extension currently targets 3920, plus 50 points per month to reflect rising 200wma.

2H Sep on deck: Buy the (rate cut) rumor, sell the (rate cut) news?

The greatest upside momentum occurs early in a cyclical advance. Different this time? H/t @Subutrade

Rather than debate the implications of various inflation scenarios, why not wait for a well-tested model to switch gears? H/t @edclissold

Sentiment thrust, anyone?

CPI on deck. Thursday 8:30 am ET.

Mid-week humor

🎶 Will you deflect me, will you reject me, when I'm 64.

A bet favoring rest-of-world over SPX is, to some degree, a bet against longstanding relative strength in U.S. technology. Source: ETF Research Center.

Comment: Pattern width suggests an interim target of 3800, which could arrive quickly given impressive breakout and strong underlying trend.

Also note comparable target from 13-year base breakout.

Signing out early. Great weekend, everyone!

Monday's breakout targets 4127 in terms of COMEX futures, an alternate or companion objective worth noting.

At risk of angering the market gods.

Crude oil in dollars and gold.

Post-October-1998 detail, for those interested. Comment: This scenario might gain respect if SPX can buck the current seasonal headwind.

Mid-week humor

GLD breakout eyes 367, basis 6-column sideways at 3% scale.

The perennial question:

Room to run by this measure. Note: Post-signal corrections are common given overbought conditions associated with 100% participation.

Signing off early. Great weekend, everyone! www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIyV...

Executive summary. #IBIT

“The future definitely lies ahead.” –Claire Voyant

Comment: EFA is 25% underweight technology versus SPX. A bet favoring EFA over SPX, then, is arguably a bet against longstanding relative strength in U.S. technology.

Mid-week humor

Why bother with relative strength? Because limited capital makes attractiveness a relative matter.

KWEB poised.

Expecting a nothing-burger from Jackson Hole while awaiting market interpretation.

A correction in gold toward 3000/oz. is not implausible given April’s 25% extension above its 200dma. Don’t shoot the messenger.

Mid-week humor

Rest-of-world appears to be basing versus SPX, but is not yet trending versus SPX. #WatchingPaintDry

Will an AI boom power a bull market extension despite today’s lofty valuations? Just for fun, and with jaded eye, here’s a look at post-October-1998 behavior in current trend-channel context.

Extreme volatility compression, comparable to July 2025, has a mixed track record, signaling important tops in less than half the cases since 2015. Never a layup, is it?

SPX is pressing its post-GFC trend channel after generating breadth thrust in April/May. Price is likely to “ride the rail,” as post-thrust regimes typically last 12 months or longer. Channel position is a plausible headwind, however, suggesting no fat pitch at present.

“With money to burn one finds a match.” –Market proverb

Mean reversion underway?

Mid-week humor

Rather than debate the implications of various inflation scenarios, why not wait for a well-tested model to switch gears? H/t NDR