Mark Ungewitter
@mark-ungewitter.bsky.social
📤 564
📥 37
📝 914
Specialist
Pro-tip: Whether EM has reversed its structural downtrend versus DM is definitional. BlackRock’s MSCI index (EEM) includes South Korea while Vanguard’s FTSE index (VWO) doesn’t. Is South Korea emerging or developed? You decide.
about 3 hours ago
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Great survey of big-picture trends and setups from the invaluable
@callumthomas.bsky.social
add a skeleton here at some point
about 3 hours ago
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Mid-week humor
1 day ago
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83% of big daily advances occur below the 200dma. –Trivia Dept.
1 day ago
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NYSE A-D line divergence has attended many, but not all, important tops. Divergence was conspicuously absent in January 2026, reducing, but not eliminating, the chance that a cyclical bear market is underway.
2 days ago
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“You can always find exceptions, especially in hindsight.” –Bogi Yerra 🤪
3 days ago
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SPX waterfall illustrated.
3 days ago
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Add margin deceleration to the bearish side of the ledger. Comment: February cutoff suggests that surging oil prices and bond yields aren't the market's only problem. H/t @_rob_anderson
5 days ago
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H/t @HumbleStudent
5 days ago
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That escalated quickly.
add a skeleton here at some point
5 days ago
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10-day NYSE new lows is likely to hurdle 4% of total issues at today's close, given 179 new lows at 1pm. This qualifies January 28th as a cyclical top, but doesn't guarantee it, as described below.
add a skeleton here at some point
6 days ago
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NVDA is arguably breaking down from an 8-month topping process. Downside acceleration would support the case.
6 days ago
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Phil D. Gap is busy these days.
6 days ago
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Bitcoin 4-year cycle?
6 days ago
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USD reversal threshold is 100.6 by this reckoning. Potential “cash is king” moment, a.k.a. risk-off event.
add a skeleton here at some point
6 days ago
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Change of character underway?
6 days ago
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Mag-7 complex Head & Shoulders top eyes 56 or lower. Don't shoot the messenger.
7 days ago
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MSCI Israel: Potential H&S top or consolidation.
8 days ago
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Mid-week humor
8 days ago
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1/ Volatility spikes occur during bear markets, but also manifest as “cracks” preceding cyclical tops. The chart below flags initial VIX >30 occurring >12 months after a cyclical bottom. SPX made subsequent new highs in 8 of 9 prior cases. (The COVID top gave no early warning.)
9 days ago
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Prior support becomes potential resistance.
#$MAGS
10 days ago
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U.S. Dollar Index, long-term perspective.
10 days ago
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1/ Is there any hope for bond investors? A breakdown in homebuilder stocks is one scenario that would favor lower yields. We’ve seen this movie before. And while not shown here, crude oil prices continued to rise sharply following peak yield, reaching $147 in July 2008.
11 days ago
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Not hearing much Zweig-thrust chatter this morning, though another ZBT setup day was logged on Friday. Comment: It takes setups to generate signals, but signals are the actionable thing.
12 days ago
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10-day NYSE new lows finished the week at 3.8% of total issues. It would take 190 new lows on Monday, or an average of 105 over the next three sessions, to surpass the 4% threshold.
add a skeleton here at some point
12 days ago
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Global 10-year government yields.
12 days ago
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Mag-7 breaking bad.
13 days ago
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SPX critical support.
13 days ago
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1/ U.S. equities have suffered or stumbled during geopolitically induced oil shocks.
13 days ago
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reposted by
Mark Ungewitter
Walter Deemer
14 days ago
A recent interview of mine is now on YouTube:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjK...
The soundtrack's been dubbed because the facilitator was in Brazil. I don't really sound like that...
loading . . .
Walter Deemer: "Quando a Hora de Comprar Chegar, VocĂŞ NĂŁo Vai Querer" (60 Anos de Trading)
YouTube video by TraderBrasil
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjKhzCNdjM&list=PLd9k0T-3QIYcVVJCzfJzUY99joymZrURl&index=4
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How high will crude fly? Impossible to know in advance, but prior geopolitical shocks since 1990 suggest $100-$140/bbl. Going back further, 1973/1979 analogs project $213/$136, if my math is correct.
14 days ago
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Gold weekly bar. Next important support lies near 4400. GLD equivalent is approximately 4040.
14 days ago
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Note to self: Sentiment is more of a trend-following tool than a mean-reversion indicator, except at fearful extremes.
add a skeleton here at some point
15 days ago
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I have a scheme for stopping war. It's this – no nation is allowed to enter a war till they have paid for the last one. –Attributed to Will Rogers
15 days ago
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Executive summary. H/t @TechCharts
15 days ago
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Mid-week humor
15 days ago
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Gold & silver seem weary, given inability to advance during wartime uncertainty. Don't shoot the messenger.
16 days ago
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H/t @MebFaber
17 days ago
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Chop and drop? Or churn and turn?
add a skeleton here at some point
17 days ago
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Forex can set the tone. All eyes on USD?
18 days ago
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To be clear, my 2% figure is the ratio of ZBT signals to the total number of setup days since 1960. Defining setups with clusters of setup days would produce a higher probability, though still a low number as evident from visual inspection.
add a skeleton here at some point
19 days ago
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MAG-7 critical support.
20 days ago
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Worth noting yesterday's ZBT setup while acknowledging that only 2% of setups produce signals.
20 days ago
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Mind the gap.
add a skeleton here at some point
20 days ago
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With all eyes on geopolitics, it’s worth monitoring non-headline items such as housing, private equity, and margin debt. Bear markets are often associated with credit contraction, or the perception of such.
22 days ago
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Mid-week humor
22 days ago
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SPX/GOLD, long-term perspective.
add a skeleton here at some point
23 days ago
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reposted by
Mark Ungewitter
Walter Deemer
24 days ago
Gap filled. Pretty ominous chart averted. Carry on.
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Global yields. 🤔
24 days ago
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Breaking bad.
add a skeleton here at some point
24 days ago
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