Industrial metals are breaking out (upper clip). Relative strength versus precious metals, not so much (lower clip).

New book just dropped on Kindle! www.amazon.com/dp/B0G8QB4G5... 66 more insightful quotes from my 60+ years on Wall Street. Mostly my own — but from Helene Meisler, Larry Williams, Doug Kass, and Dave Keller, too. Not a "reading" book...an "idea" book!

Margin debt is on my radar in the year ahead, as current 52% 15-month ROC sets up a potential sell signal below 48%. H/t @_rob_anderson

GLD stair-step ascent via 3% box size.

1/ Silver’s vertical ascent resembles its 2010/11 mark-up.

I’m no statistician but this seems significant, as SPX rose just 58% of the time for any 7-session interval since 1955. Happy Holidays, everyone!

On my radar in the year ahead.

Over-anticipating market tops may be hazardous to your wealth.

The price of gold is associated with inflation, but which is the independent variable?

TLT polarity.

Bitcoin is not the picture of health. Don't shoot the messenger.

Something about 420.

On my radar in the year ahead.

H/t @MebFaber

Gold may require further buildout before continuing higher, presuming base-case continuation. Thank you Captain Obvious?

Mid-week humor

FXI is not the picture of health.

FMS allocation to stocks plus commodities is not bearish if April 2025 reset is taken into account. Comment: Current divergence with PMI complicates this interpretation, but wasn't an obstacle in 2013, the closest example on hand.

On my radar in the year ahead.

Around the world in government yields.

On my radar in the year ahead.

GLD eyes record high, basis weekly close. When in doubt, zoom out.

Silver/Gold, long-term perspective via 15% box.

#TYX reversal confirmed. No time to be a hero.

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#TYX jump back into the creek.

The perennial question:

#GC_F appears to be forming a high-level consolidation, i.e., a tight range below resistance, suggesting persistent demand, limited supply, and eventual breakout.

IWM breakout targets 297-plus, basis 7-column sideways at 3% scale.

On my radar. #WatchingPaintDry

Mid-week humor

The words “is” and “will” may be hazardous to your wealth, unless backed by reasonable evidence and followed by “probably.”

1/ Comment: bonds. It’s tempting to see an important head & shoulders reversal in 10-year yields, but zooming out virtually conceals it. All we really know is that bonds have traversed a choppy two-year sideways following a massive three-year selloff.

Best chart on planet? #SL_F #SLV

Momentum precedes price. More evidence from the one and only @almanactrader.bsky.social

A diverse group of commodities has hurdled multi-year resistance (upper clip). Relative strength versus SPY and GLD, not so much (lower clips).

TLT is not the picture of health.

Add another example to the 98.5% of ZBT setups that don’t produce a signal. Comment: SPX can and often does go higher after a failed setup, though lacking the implication of bona fide thrust.

You could add that there has historically been a long lag between europhia and the eventual market top. Again, investors should never assume that there's a tidy symmetry between sentiment at tops and bottoms. Investors get bearish all at once (bottom) but can remain bullish during long uptrends

Equity valuation, long-term perspective from NDR Research. See NDR blog for detailed interpretation: bit.ly/4iE9iyP .

R2K setting up. R2K/SPX not so much.

$TNX limbo.

Mid-week humor

Yesterday’s anemic breadth makes Zweig Breadth Thrust a long shot, but my 5-day alternative remains operative. Comment: All cases except 2012 and 2020 were followed by classic ZBT within 0-5 sessions.

Silver is demonstrating unusual resilience, evidencing a powerful underlying trend. #PrincipleOfUnderlyingTrend

Post mortem: Bears ran out of gas slightly below the 4% threshold that sometimes confirms cyclical tops. The current case illustrates the value of 10-day smoothing versus the single-day indicator described by Vince/Williams, which had four false starts since early October.

Thrust isn't everything, but is clearly not nothing. Great explanation of the ZBT variety from the one and only Tom McClellan. www.mcoscillator.com/learning_cen...

SLV on the loose.

Thrust watch. Whaley 5-day thrust requires 1280 NYSE net advancers in today’s session. Zweig 10-day thrust requires 1180 today, an average of 1020 today and Monday, or 950 on average through Tuesday.

That yields have broken their secular downtrend doesn’t preclude cyclical reversion. What makes reversion likely? 1) It happened during the inflationary 1970s. 2) Battleships don’t turn on a dime. Any deflationary whiff is likely to revive memories of ZIRP-style repression.